Between energy security and energy market integration. Guidelines for the future development of the EU’s external energy policy in Europe’s neighbourhood. OSW Report, June 2011

For many years the European Union has been improving the efficient use of energy resources and yet the demand for energy in the EU continues to increase. When Europe belonged to one of the world’s key energy markets with relatively easy access to energy resources, growing energy needs were not seen as a source of concern. Today, however, as the competition for energy resources is intensifying and the global position of the EU energy market is being challenged by growing economies in the developing countries, above all China and India, the EU needs to adopt bold policies to guarantee the sustainable supply of energy. This report argues the EU needs to develop a fully-fledged external energy policy; i.e. a common, coherent, strategic approach that build bridges between the interests and needs of the EU integrated energy market on the one hand and supplier countries on the other. The EU’s external energy policy has two main objectives. The first one is to ensure a sustainable, stable and cost-effective energy supply. The second is to promote energy market integration and regulatory convergence with neighbouring countries (often but not always this supports the achievement of the first objective). However, in order to improve its effectiveness, the EU’s external energy policy needs to be seen in a broader economic and political context. Any progress in energy cooperation with third countries is contingent upon the EU’s general stance and offer to those countries.

International energy outlook /

Latest issue consulted: 1993.

International stock market linkages : are overnight returns on the U.S. Market informative?

Based on the theory of international stock market co-movements, this study shows that a profitable trading strategy can be developed. The U.S. market return is considered as overnight information by ordinary investors in the Asian and the European stock markets, and opening prices in local markets reflect the U.S. overnight return. However, smart traders would either judge the impact of overnight information more correctly, or predict unreleased information. Thus, the difference between expected opening prices based on the U.S. return and actual opening prices is counted as smart traders’ prediction power, which is either a buy or a sell signal. Using index futures price data from 12 countries from 2000 to 2011, cumulative returns on the trading strategy are calculated with taking into account transaction costs. The empirical results show that the proposed trading strategy generates higher riskadjusted returns than that of the benchmarks in 12 sample countries. The trading performances for the Asian markets surpass those for the European markets because the U.S. return is the only overnight information for the Asian markets whereas the Asian markets returns are additional information to the European investors.

Transmission loss allocation in a deregulated electrical energy market

This paper presents a new method for transmission loss allocation in a deregulated electrical power market. The proposed method is based on physical flow through transmission lines. The contributions of individual loads to the line flows are used as basis for allocating transmission losses to different loads. With minimum assumptions, that sound to be reasonable and cannot be rejected, a novel loss allocation formula is derived. The assumptions made are: a number of currents sharing a transmission line distribute themselves over the cross section in the same manner; that distribution causes the minimum possible power loss. Application of the proposed method is straightforward. It requires only a solved power flow and any simple algorithm for power flow tracing. Both active and reactive powers are considered in the loss allocation procedure. Results of application show the accuracy of the proposed method compared with the commonly used procedures.

How to indirectly assess transaction costs to evaluate market integration: evidence from the international ethanol market

Mercados são instituições criadas para facilitar uma atividade de comercialização. Isto é possível porque um mercado é constituído por instituições que foram desenhadas para reduzir os custos de transação associados a este processo de troca. A partir dessas duas ideias, esta tese possui três objetivos principais. (i) Analisar por que a literatura de análise de cointegração tem mensurado estes custos de forma imprecisa. A principal razão é certa confusão entre os conceitos de custos de transação, de transporte e de comercialização. (ii) Propor um procedimento para mensurar indiretamente os custos de transação de mercado variáveis combinando os modelos de cointegração com mudança de regime e a estrutura teórica oferecidas pela Nova Economia Institucional. Este procedimento é aplicado para quantificar quanto custa comercializar etanol no mercado internacional usando suas atuais instituições. (iii) Por fim, usando os mesmos modelos e a mesma estrutura teórica, esta dissertação contesta a hipótese de que já existe um mercado internacional de etanol bem desenvolvido, tal qual a literatura tem assumido. De forma semelhante, também é avaliada a hipótese de que a remoção das barreiras comerciais norte-americanas para o etanol brasileiro seria uma condição suficiente para o desenvolvimento deste mercado internacional. Os testes aplicados rejeitam ambas as hipóteses.

Evolución y perspectivas del mercado internacional del banano = The international banana market-its evolution and prospects

Incluye Bibliografía

Latin America's return to the private international capital market

Includes bibliography

Evolución reciente del mercado internacional de productos básicos = Recent evolution of the international commodity market

Incluye Bibliografía

Impact assessment of an integrated approach for thermal power generation plants asset management in the current energy market

El sector energético, en España en particular, y de forma similar en los principales países de Europa, cuenta con una significativa sobrecapacidad de generación, debido al rápido y significativo crecimiento de las energías renovables en los últimos diez años y la reducción de la demanda energética, como consecuencia de la crisis económica. Esta situación ha hecho que las centrales térmicas de generación de electricidad, y en concreto los ciclos combinados de gas, operen con un factor de utilización extremadamente bajo, del orden del 10%. Además de la reducción de ingresos, esto supone para las plantas trabajar continuamente fuera del punto de diseño, provocando una significativa pérdida de rendimiento y mayores costes de explotación. En este escenario, cualquier contribución que ayude a mejorar la eficiencia y la condición de los equipos, es positivamente considerada. La gestión de activos está ganando relevancia como un proceso multidisciplinar e integrado, tal y como refleja la reciente publicación de las normas ISO 55000:2014. Como proceso global e integrado, la gestión de activos requiere el manejo de diversos procesos y grandes volúmenes de información, incluso en tiempo real. Para ello es necesario utilizar tecnologías de la información y aplicaciones de software. Esta tesis desarrolla un concepto integrado de gestión de activos (Integrated Plant Management – IPM) aplicado a centrales de ciclo combinado y una metodología para estimar el beneficio aportado por el mismo. Debido a las incertidumbres asociadas a la estimación del beneficio, se ha optado por un análisis probabilístico coste-beneficio. Así mismo, el análisis cuantitativo se ha completado con una validación cualitativa del beneficio aportado por las tecnologías incorporadas al concepto de gestión integrada de activos, mediante una entrevista realizada a expertos del sector de generación de energía. Los resultados del análisis coste-beneficio son positivos, incluso en el desfavorable escenario con un factor de utilización de sólo el 10% y muy prometedores para factores de utilización por encima del 30%. ABSTRACT The energy sector particularly in Spain, and in a similar way in Europe, has a significant overcapacity due to the big growth of the renewable energies in the last ten years, and it is seriously affected by the demand decrease due to the economic crisis. That situation has forced the thermal plants and in particular, the combined cycles to operate with extremely low annual average capacity factors, very close to 10%. Apart from the incomes reduction, working in out-of-design conditions, means getting a worse performance and higher costs than expected. In this scenario, anything that can be done to improve the efficiency and the equipment condition is positively received. Asset Management, as a multidisciplinary and integrated process, is gaining prominence, reflected in the recent publication of the ISO 55000 series in 2014. Dealing Asset Management as a global, integrated process needs to manage several processes and significant volumes of information, also in real time, that requires information technologies and software applications to support it. This thesis proposes an integrated asset management concept (Integrated Plant Management-IPM) applied to combined cycle power plants and develops a methodology to assess the benefit that it can provide. Due to the difficulties in getting deterministic benefit estimation, a statistical approach has been adopted for the cot-benefit analysis. As well, the quantitative analysis has been completed with a qualitative validation of the technologies included in the IPM and their contribution to key power plant challenges by power generation sector experts. The cost- benefit analysis provides positive results even in the negative scenario of annual average capacity factor close to 10% and is promising for capacity factors over 30%.