Between energy security and energy market integration. Guidelines for the future development of the EU’s external energy policy in Europe’s neighbourhood. OSW Report, June 2011

For many years the European Union has been improving the efficient use of energy resources and yet the demand for energy in the EU continues to increase. When Europe belonged to one of the world’s key energy markets with relatively easy access to energy resources, growing energy needs were not seen as a source of concern. Today, however, as the competition for energy resources is intensifying and the global position of the EU energy market is being challenged by growing economies in the developing countries, above all China and India, the EU needs to adopt bold policies to guarantee the sustainable supply of energy. This report argues the EU needs to develop a fully-fledged external energy policy; i.e. a common, coherent, strategic approach that build bridges between the interests and needs of the EU integrated energy market on the one hand and supplier countries on the other. The EU’s external energy policy has two main objectives. The first one is to ensure a sustainable, stable and cost-effective energy supply. The second is to promote energy market integration and regulatory convergence with neighbouring countries (often but not always this supports the achievement of the first objective). However, in order to improve its effectiveness, the EU’s external energy policy needs to be seen in a broader economic and political context. Any progress in energy cooperation with third countries is contingent upon the EU’s general stance and offer to those countries.

International energy outlook /

Latest issue consulted: 1993.

International stock market linkages : are overnight returns on the U.S. Market informative?

Based on the theory of international stock market co-movements, this study shows that a profitable trading strategy can be developed. The U.S. market return is considered as overnight information by ordinary investors in the Asian and the European stock markets, and opening prices in local markets reflect the U.S. overnight return. However, smart traders would either judge the impact of overnight information more correctly, or predict unreleased information. Thus, the difference between expected opening prices based on the U.S. return and actual opening prices is counted as smart traders’ prediction power, which is either a buy or a sell signal. Using index futures price data from 12 countries from 2000 to 2011, cumulative returns on the trading strategy are calculated with taking into account transaction costs. The empirical results show that the proposed trading strategy generates higher riskadjusted returns than that of the benchmarks in 12 sample countries. The trading performances for the Asian markets surpass those for the European markets because the U.S. return is the only overnight information for the Asian markets whereas the Asian markets returns are additional information to the European investors.

Transmission loss allocation in a deregulated electrical energy market

This paper presents a new method for transmission loss allocation in a deregulated electrical power market. The proposed method is based on physical flow through transmission lines. The contributions of individual loads to the line flows are used as basis for allocating transmission losses to different loads. With minimum assumptions, that sound to be reasonable and cannot be rejected, a novel loss allocation formula is derived. The assumptions made are: a number of currents sharing a transmission line distribute themselves over the cross section in the same manner; that distribution causes the minimum possible power loss. Application of the proposed method is straightforward. It requires only a solved power flow and any simple algorithm for power flow tracing. Both active and reactive powers are considered in the loss allocation procedure. Results of application show the accuracy of the proposed method compared with the commonly used procedures.

Bridging the gap between anecdotal and empirical evidence in the international education market : insights from the US and UK

Education is an industry which has seen rapid growth in its trade over a short period of time. From the import and export of textbooks to international examinations such as the British Advanced and Ordinary levels and the American GMAT, GRE, LSAT, TOEFL and others, international trade in education has truly become a multidimensional phenomenon (Liston and Reeves, 1985). While all these aspects have largely contributed to the development of the so called “academic trade” (McMahon, 1988), it is the cross-border migration of international students which however remains the most visible aspect of this trade (Bourke, 2000). Indeed, recent estimates by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) suggest that nearly 1.9 million students were abroad in 2002 (OECD, 2004). There are probably thousands more foreign students involved in lower level education, language training and the like, but at the time of writing, no comprehensive statistics is yet available on international students enrolled in non-tertiary level institutions (Knight, 2002). As a result, it is vital to stress at the outset that this paper focuses exclusively on cross-border tertiary education but parallels can be drawn for lower level education.

International housing market analysis based on housing commencements

Additions to the aggregate housing stock are a broad measure of the state of an economy and overall level of confidence in a particular region over a designated period. This is due to the direct and indirect effect (e.g. employment in the housing construction industry) upon on the local economy and is linked to the confidence of local households in the future direction of housing investment, the level of housing affordability by households as related to employment levels and the relationship between supply and demand in each region. Another consideration is the ability of the government to monitor and successfully intervene in the operation of the household market (e.g. mortgage interest rates) with the intent of restricting an over-supply situation which may take years to fully recover. The analysis in this section examines new housing commencements for Scotland, Australia, USA and Canada over an extended time period with the specific focus placed on the periods before, during and after the high profile global financial crisis in 2007-2008. The graph in Figure 1 was adapted from data sourced from The Scottish Government (2013) and covers the 15-year period between 1998 and 2012. With the exception of 1999 there were been relatively few years with substantial additions to the housing market. However, the effect of the GFC can clearly be observed post 2007 although by 2012 there was relatively change from the previous year.

How to indirectly assess transaction costs to evaluate market integration: evidence from the international ethanol market

Mercados são instituições criadas para facilitar uma atividade de comercialização. Isto é possível porque um mercado é constituído por instituições que foram desenhadas para reduzir os custos de transação associados a este processo de troca. A partir dessas duas ideias, esta tese possui três objetivos principais. (i) Analisar por que a literatura de análise de cointegração tem mensurado estes custos de forma imprecisa. A principal razão é certa confusão entre os conceitos de custos de transação, de transporte e de comercialização. (ii) Propor um procedimento para mensurar indiretamente os custos de transação de mercado variáveis combinando os modelos de cointegração com mudança de regime e a estrutura teórica oferecidas pela Nova Economia Institucional. Este procedimento é aplicado para quantificar quanto custa comercializar etanol no mercado internacional usando suas atuais instituições. (iii) Por fim, usando os mesmos modelos e a mesma estrutura teórica, esta dissertação contesta a hipótese de que já existe um mercado internacional de etanol bem desenvolvido, tal qual a literatura tem assumido. De forma semelhante, também é avaliada a hipótese de que a remoção das barreiras comerciais norte-americanas para o etanol brasileiro seria uma condição suficiente para o desenvolvimento deste mercado internacional. Os testes aplicados rejeitam ambas as hipóteses.

Evolución y perspectivas del mercado internacional del banano = The international banana market-its evolution and prospects

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