Terrorism risk, resilience and volatility : a comparison of terrorism patterns in three Southeast Asian countries

Objective This article explores patterns of terrorist activity over the period from 2000 through 2010 across three target countries: Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. Methods We use self-exciting point process models to create interpretable and replicable metrics for three key terrorism concepts: risk, resilience and volatility, as defined in the context of terrorist activity. Results Analysis of the data shows significant and important differences in the risk, volatility and resilience metrics over time across the three countries. For the three countries analysed, we show that risk varied on a scale from 0.005 to 1.61 “expected terrorist attacks per day”, volatility ranged from 0.820 to 0.994 “additional attacks caused by each attack”, and resilience, as measured by the number of days until risk subsides to a pre-attack level, ranged from 19 to 39 days. We find that of the three countries, Indonesia had the lowest average risk and volatility, and the highest level of resilience, indicative of the relatively sporadic nature of terrorist activity in Indonesia. The high terrorism risk and low resilience in the Philippines was a function of the more intense, less clustered pattern of terrorism than what was evident in Indonesia. Conclusions Mathematical models hold great promise for creating replicable, reliable and interpretable “metrics” to key terrorism concepts such as risk, resilience and volatility.

The Terrorism Virus: Contemporary Traits and Mechanisms

In order to present and understand the nature of modern terrorism it is important to realize its key properties as well the mechanisms that shape terrorism. Selected properties and mechanisms shaping modern terrorism which can be exemplified by the following: evolutionary nature of terrorism, asymmetry of terrorism, interferentiality of terrorism, multitude of components of terrorism, diffusion of terrorism, duality of terrorism, positive dimension of terrorism, terrorist as the system, diversity of terrorist activity goals, changeability of terrorist threat, the broad and narrow dimension of terrorism, counter-anti-terrorism, the confrontational and cooperational character of relations, calculation and operational strategy, disintegrational nature of terrorism, multidisciplinarity of terrorism, horizontal and vertical dimension of terrorism and a the few other traits or mechanisms.

The Extra-territorial Obligations of European States regarding Human Rights in the Context of Terrorism

This chapter focuses on the growing tendency of international human rights law to require states to protect the rights of non-nationals who are in the state unlawfully and of nationals and non-nationals who are outside the state, especially when any of these people are involved in terrorist or counter-terrorist activity. It reviews these additional obligations within a European context, focusing on EU law and the law of the European Convention on Human Rights and drawing on the case law of UK courts. Part 1 considers when a European state must grant asylum to alleged terrorists on the basis that otherwise they would suffer human rights abuses in the state from which they are fleeing. Part 2 examines whether, outside of asylum claims, a European state must not deport or extradite an alleged terrorist because he or she might suffer an abuse of human rights in the receiving state. Part 3 looks at whether a European state whose security forces are engaged in counter-terrorism activities abroad is obliged to protect the human rights of the individuals serving in those forces and/or the human rights of the alleged terrorists they are confronting. While welcoming the extension of state responsibility, the chapter notes that it is occurring in a way which introduces three aspects of relativity into the protection of human rights. First, European law protects only some human rights extra-territorially. Second, it protects those rights only when there is ‘a real risk’ of their being violated. Third, sometimes it protects those rights only when there is a real risk of their being violated ‘flagrantly’.

Insurgency in a time of terrorism

Is it possible to separate terrorism from armed insurgency? Are all armed manifestations terrorism? Is terrorism a method of action or a logic for action? This article purports to analyze insurgency in the midst of the anti-terrorist era of the new century. By using Vietnam as an example, the author points out how armed insurgency has as of lately been called “terrorist”, yet stresses that this concept should be carefully and strategically looked through in order to better understand the violent nature of two very different phenomena: transactional and trans-national insurgencies-----¿Se puede escindir el terrorismo de la insurgencia armada? ¿Toda expresión armada es terrorismo? ¿El territorio es un método de acción o una lógica de acción? Este artículo presenta un análisis de la insurgencia a la luz de la era antiterrorista del nuevo siglo. Con la utilización del ejemplo de Vietnam el autor señala cómo la insurgencia armada ha sido señalada de “terrorista”; sin embargo, debe revisarse detenidamente de manera estratégica este concepto para entender mejor la naturaleza de la violencia de dos fenómenos diferentes: la insurgencia transnacional y el terrorismo transnacional.

Money laundering control and suppression of financing of terrorism : some thoughts on the impact of customer due diligence measures on financial exclusion

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between anti-money laundering (“AML”) and combating of financing of terrorism (“CFT”) customer due diligence (“CDD”) measures in the financial services industry, and exclusion from financial services.
Design/methodology/approach – An introduction to the concept of financial exclusion is provided as well as an overview of international AML/CFT CDD standards. The paper highlights a softening of national CDD measures in South Africa and the UK to lessen the impact on financial exclusion.
Findings – Countries should consider the impact that CDD requirements may have on financial exclusion when they design their AML/CFT systems.
Research limitations/implications – Multi-discilinary research is required to improve the understanding of the broader interaction between AML/CFT objectives, financial exclusion and economic development, especially in countries with a large informal economy.
Practical implications – CDD requirements may unnecessarily exacerbate financial exclusion if they are not formulated with care to reflect the reality of the particular country setting.
Originality/value – The paper offers insights into the international standards resulting to the identification of clients and the experiences in the UK and South Africa regarding the implementation of these standards on financial exclusion.