Essays on Market Microstructure: Price Discovery and Informed Trading

Market microstructure is “the study of the trading mechanisms used for financial securities” (Hasbrouck (2007)). It seeks to understand the sources of value and reasons for trade, in a setting with different types of traders, and different private and public information sets. The actual mechanisms of trade are a continually changing object of study. These include continuous markets, auctions, limit order books, dealer markets, or combinations of these operating as a hybrid market. Microstructure also has to allow for the possibility of multiple prices. At any given time an investor may be faced with a multitude of different prices, depending on whether he or she is buying or selling, the quantity he or she wishes to trade, and the required speed for the trade. The price may also depend on the relationship that the trader has with potential counterparties. In this research, I touch upon all of the above issues. I do this by studying three specific areas, all of which have both practical and policy implications. First, I study the role of information in trading and pricing securities in markets with a heterogeneous population of traders, some of whom are informed and some not, and who trade for different private or public reasons. Second, I study the price discovery of stocks in a setting where they are simultaneously traded in more than one market. Third, I make a contribution to the ongoing discussion about market design, i.e. the question of which trading systems and ways of organizing trading are most efficient. A common characteristic throughout my thesis is the use of high frequency datasets, i.e. tick data. These datasets include all trades and quotes in a given security, rather than just the daily closing prices, as in traditional asset pricing literature. This thesis consists of four separate essays. In the first essay I study price discovery for European companies cross-listed in the United States. I also study explanatory variables for differences in price discovery. In my second essay I contribute to earlier research on two issues of broad interest in market microstructure: market transparency and informed trading. I examine the effects of a change to an anonymous market at the OMX Helsinki Stock Exchange. I broaden my focus slightly in the third essay, to include releases of macroeconomic data in the United States. I analyze the effect of these releases on European cross-listed stocks. The fourth and last essay examines the uses of standard methodologies of price discovery analysis in a novel way. Specifically, I study price discovery within one market, between local and foreign traders.

Volume-Synchronized Probability of Informed Trading (VPIN), Market Volatility, and High-Frequency Liquidity

We assess the predictive ability of three VPIN metrics on the basis of two highly volatile market events of China, and examine the association between VPIN and toxic-induced volatility through conditional probability analysis and multiple regression. We examine the dynamic relationship on VPIN and high-frequency liquidity using Vector Auto-Regression models, Granger Causality tests, and impulse response analysis. Our results suggest that Bulk Volume VPIN has the best risk-warning effect among major VPIN metrics. VPIN has a positive association with market volatility induced by toxic information flow. Most importantly, we document a positive feedback effect between VPIN and high-frequency liquidity, where a negative liquidity shock boosts up VPIN, which, in turn, leads to further liquidity drain. Our study provides empirical evidence that reflects an intrinsic game between informed traders and market makers when facing toxic information in the high-frequency trading world.

Information leakage and informed trading around unscheduled earnings announcements

While there has been much judicial discussion regarding the competency of Australia's continuous disclosure regime with reference to contemporaneous international standards, there has to date been limited empirical analysis of the Australian system's effectiveness in preventing selective disclosure and information leakage. This paper presents an empirical study of information content and trading behaviour around unscheduled earnings announcements - comprising of profit upgrades, profit warnings and neutral trading statements - made by ASX-listed companies during 2004. The contention is that informed trading impacts on the stock returns and trading volumes of listed entities, and hence abnormal returns or trading volumes observed prior to an announcement provide evidence of information leakage. The paper models a range of factors that potentially influence firm disclosure practices and contribute to the level information asymmetry in the market during the pre- announcement period. Previous research has investigated the influence of firm size and information content in contributing to information leakage. This study further considers the variables of firm growth, capital structure and industry group.

Empresas de controle familiar e informed trading: evidências de short selling no mercado brasileiro?

O objetivo desse trabalho é testar se no mercado brasileiro, empresas familiares são mais suscetíveis a insider trading.Testes feitos no mercado americano evidenciaram efeito do controle familiar no conteúdo informacional embutido em montagem de posições vendidas de companhias abertas. Lá, foram encontrados níveis acima do normal de posições short em companhias de controle familiar principalmente em momentos que antecipavam resultados negativos que iriam ser publicados. Não encontramos evidências claras de que o fato da companhia ter controle familiar poderia levá-la a apresentar ou não insider trading, já que por limitação do modelo não é possível comparar o nível de anormal short para empresas de controle familiar e outras pois essa variável é excluída do modelo. Entretanto, observamos nos modelos em painel fixo com interações que existe diferença do efeito de algumas variáveis de controle para empresas de controle familiar ou não sobre outras variáveis de controle o que poderia mostrar que alguma influência o controle familiar poderia ter sobre o insider trading. Testamos também se empresas de controle estatal apresentavam maior volume médio diário anormal de posições vendidas em momentos que antecediam surpresas de resultado, e também não encontramos evidências claras e diretas que isso acontecia.

An analysis of trading in target stocks before successful takeover announcements

In this paper we examine both informed and contraire trading preceding successful takeover announcements on US target firms from 2001 to 2006. We find that both informed trading and contraire trading exist within the period preceding successful takeover announcements on the stock market, as evident through abnormal returns and trading volumes and on the option market by analyzing only abnormal trading volume. In regard to contraire trading, we investigate possible explanations for its existence. This study finds, through analysis of an unbiased sample of rumored target firms, that deliberate contraire trading appears to be profitable which is likely an explanation for such trading.

Rating downgrade and the price impact of CDS spread on stock return

We investigate the time-varying informativeness of credit default swap (CDS) trading on stock returns for 302 US firms from July 2004 to August 2010. Using the Acharya and Johnson (2007) measure, we find that CDS trading becomes informative for an increasing number of firms as we approach the global financial crisis (GFC). Firm numbers gradually decline post-GFC, but remain high compared to the pre-GFC period. furthermore, CDS trading imposes the largest conditional price impact on firms that are recently downgraded, regardless of rating levels. Interestingly, this holds during and after the GFC, but not before. We offer two implications. First, despite post-GFC outcry against the CDS market, our results suggest it exhibits enhanced price discovery during the GFC. Second, our findings support criticism that, in the lead-up to the GFC, rating agencies are slow in downgrading firms. However, if downgrade decisions made during and after the GFC induce informed trading in the CDS market, this necessarily implies that during the midst of the GFC, rating agencies have got their act together.

Exchange-traded funds and information asymmetry

This thesis focuses on three main questions. The first uses ExchangeTraded Funds (ETFs) to evaluate estimated adverse selection costs obtained spread decomposition models. The second compares the Probability of Informed Trading (PIN) in Exchange-Traded Funds to control securities. The third examines the intra-day ETF trading patterns. These spread decomposition models evaluated are Glosten and Harris (1988); George, Kaul, and Nimalendran (1991); Lin, Sanger, and Booth (1995); Madhavan, Richardson, and Roomans (1997); Huang and Stoll (1997). Using the characteristics of ETFs it is shown that only the Glosten and Harris (1988) and Madhavan, et al (1997) models provide theoretically consistent results. When the PIN measure is employed ETFs are shown to have greater PINs than control securities. The investigation of the intra-day trading patterns shows that return volatility and trading volume have a U-shaped intra-day pattern. A study of trading systems shows that ETFs on the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) have a U-shaped intra-day pattern of bid-ask spreads, while ETFs on NASDAQ do not. Specifically, ETFs on NASDAQ have higher bid-ask spreads at the market opening, then the lowest bid-ask spread in the middle of the day. At the close of the market, the bid-ask spread of ETFs on NASDAQ slightly elevated when compared to mid-day.

Informed options trading prior to takeovers - Does the regulatory environment matter?

We investigate the prevalence of informed options trading prior to takeover announcements, when the legal prohibition against insider trading is strictest. Although insider trading laws apply equally to the options and stock markets, the options market is considerably more transparent than the equity market, which makes insider trading in options more easily detectable. We find that privately informed investors trade in the options market prior to takeover announcements; however, their transactions are limited to liquid call options and options with high inherent leverage. Furthermore, we find that prior to takeover announcements, informed investors trade on their private information in the options market only when a SEC investigation of insider trading is unlikely to occur. Our results suggest that even prior to takeover announcements informed investors are attracted to the options market, which increases profit making potential due the greater leverage it affords, although they trade in a way which minimizes the likelihood of detection.

Trading off dietary choices, physical exercise and cardiovascular disease risks

Despite several decades of decline, cardiovascular diseases are still the most common causes of death in Western societies. Sedentary living and high fat diets contribute to the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases. This paper analyses the trade-offs between lifestyle choices defined in terms of diet, physical activity, cost, and risk of cardiovascular disease that a representative sample of the population of Northern Ireland aged 40-65 are willing to make. Using computer assisted personal interviews, we survey 493 individuals at their homes using a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) questionnaire administered between February and July 2011 in Northern Ireland. Unlike most DCE studies for valuing public health programs, this questionnaire uses a tailored exercise, based on the individuals’ baseline choices. A “fat screener” module in the questionnaire links personal cardiovascular disease risk to each specific choice set in terms of dietary constituents. Individuals are informed about their real status quo risk of a fatal cardiovascular event, based on an initial set of health questions. Thus, actual risks, real diet and exercise choices are the elements that constitute the choice task. Our results show that our respondents are willing to pay for reducing mortality risk and, more importantly, are willing to change physical exercise and dietary behaviours. In particular, we find that to improve their lifestyles, overweight and obese people would be more likely to do more physical activity than to change their diets. Therefore, public policies aimed to target obesity and its related illnesses in Northern Ireland should invest public money in promoting physical activity rather than healthier diets.

Trading Activity in Options and Stock Around Price-Sensitive News Announcements

This study investigates the trading activity in options and stock markets around informed events with extreme daily stock price movements. We find that informed agents are more likely to trade options prior to negative news and stocks ahead of positive news. We also show that optioned stocks overreact to the arrival of negative news, but react efficiently to positive news. However, the overreaction patterns are unique to the subsample of stocks with the lowest pre-event abnormal option/stock volume ratio (O/S). This finding suggests that the incremental benefit of option listing is related to the level of option trading activity, over and beyond the presence of an options market on the firm's stock. Finally, we find that the pre-event abnormal O/S is a better predictor of stock price patterns following a negative shock than is the pre-event O/S, implying that the former may contain more information about the future value of stocks than the latter.

Management trading in Chinese entrepreneurial firms on the ChiNext

We examine management trading in Chinese entrepreneurial firms on the ChiNext. We find that management shareholdings are considerably high, and executives tend to sell their shares after the IPOs on the ChiNext. The propensity for executives to sell shares is negatively correlated with the firms corporate governance and current operating cash flows, but the amount they sell is only positively correlated with the level of management holdings. Both the management selling decision and percentage of selling do not associate with firms earnings and sales growth. This suggests that managers are profit makers rather than informed traders in their selling activities on the ChiNext. We also find that the market reaction to management selling is substantially negative, which implies a herding effect of investors following executives to sell shares.

Intraday trading patterns in London listed exchange traded funds

In this paper we examine the intraday trading patterns of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) listed on the London Stock Exchange. ETFs have been shown to be characterised by much lower bid–ask spread costs and by lower levels of information asymmetry than individual securities. One possible explanation for intraday trading patterns is that concentration of trading arises at the start of the trading day because informed traders have private information that quickly diminishes in value as trading progresses. Since ETFs have lower trading costs and lower levels of information asymmetry we would expect these securities to display less pronounced intraday patterns than individual securities. We fail to find that ETFs are characterised by concentrated trading bouts during the day and therefore find support for the argument that information asymmetry is the cause of intraday volume patterns in stock markets. We find that ETF bid–ask spreads and volatility are elevated at the open but not at the close. This lends support to the “accumulation of information” explanation that sees high spreads and volatility at the open as a consequence of information accumulating during a market closure and impacting on the market when it next opens.