Testing for Hidden Information and Action in Automobile Insurance Market

I test the presence of hidden information and action in the automobile insurance market using a data set from several Colombian insurers. To identify the presence of hidden information I find a common knowledge variable providing information on policyholder s risk type which is related to both experienced risk and insurance demand and that was excluded from the pricing mechanism. Such unused variable is the record of policyholder s traffic offenses. I find evidence of adverse selection in six of the nine insurance companies for which the test is performed. From the point of view of hidden action I develop a dynamic model of effort in accident prevention given an insurance contract with bonus experience rating scheme and I show that individual accident probability decreases with previous accidents. This result brings a testable implication for the empirical identification of hidden action and based on that result I estimate an econometric model of the time spans between the purchase of the insurance and the first claim, between the first claim and the second one, and so on. I find strong evidence on the existence of unobserved heterogeneity that deceives the testable implication. Once the unobserved heterogeneity is controlled, I find conclusive statistical grounds supporting the presence of moral hazard in the Colombian insurance market.

Forecasting exchange rate volatility using conditional variance models selected by information criteria

This paper uses appropriately modified information criteria to select models from the GARCH family, which are subsequently used for predicting US dollar exchange rate return volatility. The out of sample forecast accuracy of models chosen in this manner compares favourably on mean absolute error grounds, although less favourably on mean squared error grounds, with those generated by the commonly used GARCH(1, 1) model. An examination of the orders of models selected by the criteria reveals that (1, 1) models are typically selected less than 20% of the time.

Chemical contaminants in juvenile gray whales (Eschrichtius robustus) from a subsistence harvest in Arctic feeding grounds

Gray whales are coastal migratory baleen whales that are benthic feeders. Most of their feeding takes place in the northern Pacific Ocean with opportunistic feeding taking place during their migrations and residence on the breeding grounds. The concentrations of organochlorines and trace elements were determined in tissues and stomach contents of juvenile gray whales that were taken on their Arctic feeding grounds in the western Bering Sea during a Russian subsistence harvest. These concentrations were compared to previously published data for contaminants in gray whales that stranded along the west coast of the US during their northbound migration. Feeding in coastal waters during their migrations may present a risk of exposure to toxic chemicals in some regions. The mean concentration (standard error of the mean, SEM) of Σ PCBs [1400 (130) ng/g, lipid weight] in the blubber of juvenile subsistence whales was significantly lower than the mean level [27 000 (11 000) ng/g, lipid weight] reported previously in juvenile gray whales that stranded in waters off the west coast of the US. Aluminum in stomach contents of the subsistence whales was high compared to other marine mammal species, which is consistent with the ingestion of sediment during feeding. Furthermore, the concentrations of potentially toxic chemicals in tissues were relatively low when compared to the concentrations in tissues of other marine mammals feeding at higher trophic levels. These chemical contaminant data for the subsistence gray whales substantially increase the information available for presumably healthy animals.

A Computational Model for Processing Lexical Information"

The group analysed some syntactic and phonological phenomena that presuppose the existence of interrelated components within the lexicon, which motivate the assumption that there are some sublexicons within the global lexicon of a speaker. This result is confirmed by experimental findings in neurolinguistics. Hungarian speaking agrammatic aphasics were tested in several ways, the results showing that the sublexicon of closed-class lexical items provides a highly automated complex device for processing surface sentence structure. Analysing Hungarian ellipsis data from a semantic-syntactic aspect, the group established that the lexicon is best conceived of being as split into at least two main sublexicons: the store of semantic-syntactic feature bundles and a separate store of sound forms. On this basis they proposed a format for representing open-class lexical items whose meanings are connected via certain semantic relations. They also proposed a new classification of verbs to account for the contribution of the aspectual reading of the sentence depending on the referential type of the argument, and a new account of the syntactic and semantic behaviour of aspectual prefixes. The partitioned sets of lexical items are sublexicons on phonological grounds. These sublexicons differ in terms of phonotactic grammaticality. The degrees of phonotactic grammaticality are tied up with the problem of psychological reality, of how many degrees of this native speakers are sensitive to. The group developed a hierarchical construction network as an extension of the original General Inheritance Network formalism and this framework was then used as a platform for the implementation of the grammar fragments.

Centennial International Exhibition Grounds, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 1876 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Pictorial map of the International Exhibition Grounds, presented by the Philadelphia, Wilmington and Baltimore Railroad. It was published by Van Ingen & Snyder & Gillett in 1876. Scale not given. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Pennsylvania South State Plane Coordinate System NAD83 (in Feet) (Fipszone 3702). All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This image pictorially shows the grounds of the Philadelphia Centennial Exhibition, 1876. It includes features such as roads, railroads, drainage, buildings with uses, and more. Includes inset engraving: Birds-eye Centennial International Exhibition from Sawyer's Observatory. Copyright 1875 by Theo. Leonhardt & Son and lists of United States Centennial Commissions officers. This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from The Harvard Map Collection as part of the Imaging the Urban Environment project. Maps selected for this project represent major urban areas and cities of the world, at various time periods. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features at a large scale. The selection represents a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates, scales, and purposes.

Grounds of farm house for David Adler Jr. at Libertyville, Ill. Revised garden layout

Changes in plantings indicated in pen. Unsigned. 88 x 52 cm. Scale 1/8" = 1' [from photographic copy by Lance Burgharrdt]

Topographical survey; grounds of Mr. James A. Allison

Ink on linen. Elevations, location of drainage tiles, buildings and vegetation. Includes some penciled lines and notes. 94 cm. x 80 cm. Scale: 1"= 50' [Marion College] [from photographic copy by Lance Burgharrdt]

Design for boulder bridge; grounds of Mr. James A. Allison

Red and black ink on linen. View from top, side and end elevations and cross-section with distances and grades. 111 cm. x 50 cm. Scale: 1/4" = 1'. Signed. [Marion College] [from photographic copy by Lance Burgharrdt]

Topographical survey; grounds of Mr. James A. Allison

Black and red ink on linen. Elevations, topographical lines, location of vegetation, buildings and drainage tiles; locations of (proposed?) gardens, walkways, ponds, stables, etc. penciled in. 92 cm. x 83 cm. Scale: 1" = 50'. [Marion College] [from photographic copy by Lance Burgharrdt]

General plan; grounds of Mr. James A. Allison

Pencil and red ink on linen. Indicates location of buildings, ponds, gardens, vegetation, sewers, etc. Signed. 92 cm x 84 cm. Scale: 1" = 50'. Signed. [Marion College] [from photographic copy by Lance Burgharrdt]

Design for garden pool; grounds of Mr. J.A. Allison

Black and red ink on tracing paper. Plan and detailed cross-sections of pool and drainage details with measurements and materials specified. Signed. 72 cm. x 51 cm. Scale: 1/2 " = 1'. [Marion College] [from photographic copy by Lance Burgharrdt]

Plan showing location of tennis court, vegetable garden and walls, and grounds of James A. Allison

Pencil on linen. Elevations for walls and gates. Signed. 106 cm. x 27 cm. Scale: 1" = 20'. [Marion College] [from photographic copy by Lance Burgharrdt]

Planting plan for the grounds of the Avery Coonley School and Kindergarten; Downers Grove, Illinois

Ink on linen. Location and types of plantings. 150 cm. x 74 cm. [from photographic copy by Lance Burgharrdt]

Topographical survey for grounds of Mr. O.E. Babcock; Lake Forest, Illinois

Red and black ink on linen. Topo lines, elevations (location, type of trees). Signed. 106 cm. x 32 cm. Scale: 1"=30' [from photographic copy by Lance Burgharrdt]

Plan for the tile drain and grades for grounds of Mr. O.C. Babcock; Lake Forest, Illinois

Red and black ink on linen. Topo lines, tile lines, distances, profile of grape arbor. Signed. 106 cm. x 34 cm. Scale: 1"=30' [from photographic copy by Lance Burgharrdt]