Major influencing factors of indoor radon concentrations in Switzerland.

PURPOSE: In Switzerland, nationwide large-scale radon surveys have been conducted since the early 1980s to establish the distribution of indoor radon concentrations (IRC). The aim of this work was to study the factors influencing IRC in Switzerland using univariate analyses that take into account biases caused by spatial irregularities of sampling. METHODS: About 212,000 IRC measurements carried out in more than 136,000 dwellings were available for this study. A probability map to assess risk of exceeding an IRC of 300 Bq/m(3) was produced using basic geostatistical techniques. Univariate analyses of IRC for different variables, namely the type of radon detector, various building characteristics such as foundation type, year of construction and building type, as well as the altitude, the average outdoor temperature during measurement and the lithology, were performed comparing 95% confidence intervals among classes of each variable. Furthermore, a map showing the spatial aggregation of the number of measurements was generated for each class of variable in order to assess biases due to spatially irregular sampling. RESULTS: IRC measurements carried out with electret detectors were 35% higher than measurements performed with track detectors. Regarding building characteristics, the IRC of apartments are significantly lower than individual houses. Furthermore, buildings with concrete foundations have the lowest IRC. A significant decrease in IRC was found in buildings constructed after 1900 and again after 1970. Moreover, IRC decreases at higher outdoor temperatures. There is also a tendency to have higher IRC with altitude. Regarding lithology, carbonate rock in the Jura Mountains produces significantly higher IRC, almost by a factor of 2, than carbonate rock in the Alps. Sedimentary rock and sediment produce the lowest IRC while carbonate rock from the Jura Mountains and igneous rock produce the highest IRC. Potential biases due to spatially unbalanced sampling of measurements were identified for several influencing factors. CONCLUSIONS: Significant associations were found between IRC and all variables under study. However, we showed that the spatial distribution of samples strongly affected the relevance of those associations. Therefore, future methods to estimate local radon hazards should take the multidimensionality of the process of IRC into account.

Analysis and spatial modeling of the indoor radon Swiss data

The present research deals with an important public health threat, which is the pollution created by radon gas accumulation inside dwellings. The spatial modeling of indoor radon in Switzerland is particularly complex and challenging because of many influencing factors that should be taken into account. Indoor radon data analysis must be addressed from both a statistical and a spatial point of view. As a multivariate process, it was important at first to define the influence of each factor. In particular, it was important to define the influence of geology as being closely associated to indoor radon. This association was indeed observed for the Swiss data but not probed to be the sole determinant for the spatial modeling. The statistical analysis of data, both at univariate and multivariate level, was followed by an exploratory spatial analysis. Many tools proposed in the literature were tested and adapted, including fractality, declustering and moving windows methods. The use of Quan-tité Morisita Index (QMI) as a procedure to evaluate data clustering in function of the radon level was proposed. The existing methods of declustering were revised and applied in an attempt to approach the global histogram parameters. The exploratory phase comes along with the definition of multiple scales of interest for indoor radon mapping in Switzerland. The analysis was done with a top-to-down resolution approach, from regional to local lev¬els in order to find the appropriate scales for modeling. In this sense, data partition was optimized in order to cope with stationary conditions of geostatistical models. Common methods of spatial modeling such as Κ Nearest Neighbors (KNN), variography and General Regression Neural Networks (GRNN) were proposed as exploratory tools. In the following section, different spatial interpolation methods were applied for a par-ticular dataset. A bottom to top method complexity approach was adopted and the results were analyzed together in order to find common definitions of continuity and neighborhood parameters. Additionally, a data filter based on cross-validation was tested with the purpose of reducing noise at local scale (the CVMF). At the end of the chapter, a series of test for data consistency and methods robustness were performed. This lead to conclude about the importance of data splitting and the limitation of generalization methods for reproducing statistical distributions. The last section was dedicated to modeling methods with probabilistic interpretations. Data transformation and simulations thus allowed the use of multigaussian models and helped take the indoor radon pollution data uncertainty into consideration. The catego-rization transform was presented as a solution for extreme values modeling through clas-sification. Simulation scenarios were proposed, including an alternative proposal for the reproduction of the global histogram based on the sampling domain. The sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS) was presented as the method giving the most complete information, while classification performed in a more robust way. An error measure was defined in relation to the decision function for data classification hardening. Within the classification methods, probabilistic neural networks (PNN) show to be better adapted for modeling of high threshold categorization and for automation. Support vector machines (SVM) on the contrary performed well under balanced category conditions. In general, it was concluded that a particular prediction or estimation method is not better under all conditions of scale and neighborhood definitions. Simulations should be the basis, while other methods can provide complementary information to accomplish an efficient indoor radon decision making.

Predictive analysis and mapping of indoor radon concentrations in Switzerland

It is estimated that around 230 people die each year due to radon (222Rn) exposure in Switzerland. 222Rn occurs mainly in closed environments like buildings and originates primarily from the subjacent ground. Therefore it depends strongly on geology and shows substantial regional variations. Correct identification of these regional variations would lead to substantial reduction of 222Rn exposure of the population based on appropriate construction of new and mitigation of already existing buildings. Prediction of indoor 222Rn concentrations (IRC) and identification of 222Rn prone areas is however difficult since IRC depend on a variety of different variables like building characteristics, meteorology, geology and anthropogenic factors. The present work aims at the development of predictive models and the understanding of IRC in Switzerland, taking into account a maximum of information in order to minimize the prediction uncertainty. The predictive maps will be used as a decision-support tool for 222Rn risk management. The construction of these models is based on different data-driven statistical methods, in combination with geographical information systems (GIS). In a first phase we performed univariate analysis of IRC for different variables, namely the detector type, building category, foundation, year of construction, the average outdoor temperature during measurement, altitude and lithology. All variables showed significant associations to IRC. Buildings constructed after 1900 showed significantly lower IRC compared to earlier constructions. We observed a further drop of IRC after 1970. In addition to that, we found an association of IRC with altitude. With regard to lithology, we observed the lowest IRC in sedimentary rocks (excluding carbonates) and sediments and the highest IRC in the Jura carbonates and igneous rock. The IRC data was systematically analyzed for potential bias due to spatially unbalanced sampling of measurements. In order to facilitate the modeling and the interpretation of the influence of geology on IRC, we developed an algorithm based on k-medoids clustering which permits to define coherent geological classes in terms of IRC. We performed a soil gas 222Rn concentration (SRC) measurement campaign in order to determine the predictive power of SRC with respect to IRC. We found that the use of SRC is limited for IRC prediction. The second part of the project was dedicated to predictive mapping of IRC using models which take into account the multidimensionality of the process of 222Rn entry into buildings. We used kernel regression and ensemble regression tree for this purpose. We could explain up to 33% of the variance of the log transformed IRC all over Switzerland. This is a good performance compared to former attempts of IRC modeling in Switzerland. As predictor variables we considered geographical coordinates, altitude, outdoor temperature, building type, foundation, year of construction and detector type. Ensemble regression trees like random forests allow to determine the role of each IRC predictor in a multidimensional setting. We found spatial information like geology, altitude and coordinates to have stronger influences on IRC than building related variables like foundation type, building type and year of construction. Based on kernel estimation we developed an approach to determine the local probability of IRC to exceed 300 Bq/m3. In addition to that we developed a confidence index in order to provide an estimate of uncertainty of the map. All methods allow an easy creation of tailor-made maps for different building characteristics. Our work is an essential step towards a 222Rn risk assessment which accounts at the same time for different architectural situations as well as geological and geographical conditions. For the communication of 222Rn hazard to the population we recommend to make use of the probability map based on kernel estimation. The communication of 222Rn hazard could for example be implemented via a web interface where the users specify the characteristics and coordinates of their home in order to obtain the probability to be above a given IRC with a corresponding index of confidence. Taking into account the health effects of 222Rn, our results have the potential to substantially improve the estimation of the effective dose from 222Rn delivered to the Swiss population.

Predictive analysis and mapping of indoor radon concentrations in a complex environment using kernel estimation: an application to Switzerland.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to develop models based on kernel regression and probability estimation in order to predict and map IRC in Switzerland by taking into account all of the following: architectural factors, spatial relationships between the measurements, as well as geological information. METHODS: We looked at about 240,000 IRC measurements carried out in about 150,000 houses. As predictor variables we included: building type, foundation type, year of construction, detector type, geographical coordinates, altitude, temperature and lithology into the kernel estimation models. We developed predictive maps as well as a map of the local probability to exceed 300 Bq/m(3). Additionally, we developed a map of a confidence index in order to estimate the reliability of the probability map. RESULTS: Our models were able to explain 28% of the variations of IRC data. All variables added information to the model. The model estimation revealed a bandwidth for each variable, making it possible to characterize the influence of each variable on the IRC estimation. Furthermore, we assessed the mapping characteristics of kernel estimation overall as well as by municipality. Overall, our model reproduces spatial IRC patterns which were already obtained earlier. On the municipal level, we could show that our model accounts well for IRC trends within municipal boundaries. Finally, we found that different building characteristics result in different IRC maps. Maps corresponding to detached houses with concrete foundations indicate systematically smaller IRC than maps corresponding to farms with earth foundation. CONCLUSIONS: IRC mapping based on kernel estimation is a powerful tool to predict and analyze IRC on a large-scale as well as on a local level. This approach enables to develop tailor-made maps for different architectural elements and measurement conditions and to account at the same time for geological information and spatial relations between IRC measurements.

Improved predictive mapping of indoor radon concentrations using ensemble regression trees based on automatic clustering of geological units.

PURPOSE: According to estimations around 230 people die as a result of radon exposure in Switzerland. This public health concern makes reliable indoor radon prediction and mapping methods necessary in order to improve risk communication to the public. The aim of this study was to develop an automated method to classify lithological units according to their radon characteristics and to develop mapping and predictive tools in order to improve local radon prediction. METHOD: About 240 000 indoor radon concentration (IRC) measurements in about 150 000 buildings were available for our analysis. The automated classification of lithological units was based on k-medoids clustering via pair-wise Kolmogorov distances between IRC distributions of lithological units. For IRC mapping and prediction we used random forests and Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). RESULTS: The automated classification groups lithological units well in terms of their IRC characteristics. Especially the IRC differences in metamorphic rocks like gneiss are well revealed by this method. The maps produced by random forests soundly represent the regional difference of IRCs in Switzerland and improve the spatial detail compared to existing approaches. We could explain 33% of the variations in IRC data with random forests. Additionally, the influence of a variable evaluated by random forests shows that building characteristics are less important predictors for IRCs than spatial/geological influences. BART could explain 29% of IRC variability and produced maps that indicate the prediction uncertainty. CONCLUSION: Ensemble regression trees are a powerful tool to model and understand the multidimensional influences on IRCs. Automatic clustering of lithological units complements this method by facilitating the interpretation of radon properties of rock types. This study provides an important element for radon risk communication. Future approaches should consider taking into account further variables like soil gas radon measurements as well as more detailed geological information.

Indoor radon measurements and methodologies in Latin American countries

According to the current international guidelines concerning environmental problems, it is necessary to evaluate and to know the indoor radon levels, specially since most of the natural radiation dose to man comes from radon gas and its progeny. Several countries have established National Institutions and National Programs for the study of radon and its connection with lung cancer risk and public health. The aim of this work is to present the indoor radon measurements and the detection methods used for different regions of Latin America (LA) in countries such as Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela. This study shows that the passive radon devices based on alpha particle nuclear track methodology (NTM) is one of the more generalized methods in LA for long term indoor radon measurements, CR-39, LR-115 and Makrofol being the more commonly used detector materials. The participating institutions and the radon level measurements in the different countries are presented in this contribution. (C) 2001 Elsevier B.V. Ltd. All rights reserved.

Indoor radon measurements in six Latin American countries

Most of the natural radiation dose to man comes from radon gas and its progeny. Several countries have established national institutions and national programs in charge of the study of radon and its connection with lung cancer risk and public health. In this paper an indoor radon measurements in Latin American countries is presented. The participants in this work were from Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela. Many different techniques are used in this common effort, and the indoor radon levels in specific locations in each of the participant countries are presented.

Illinois homeowner's guide to reduction of indoor radon : final report /

Prepared for Illinois Dept. of Energy and and Natural Resources, Office of Research and Planning; principal investigators: Patricia Szczepanik Van Leeuwen, William H. Hallenbeck.

Effects of environrnental conditions on the radon daughters spatial distribution

The influence of environmental conditions on the indoor radon daughters spatial distribution is studied both theoretically and experimentally. Simple theoretical calculations indicate that ventilation and variation in the size distribution of aerosols should play an important role influencing the spatial distribution of indoor radon decay products, but experimental results indicate that these environmental factors have little influence on the spatial distribution of radon daughters near the walls of indoor environments. We have observed that the maximum effective range of the plate-out effect varies only between I and 3 cm in typical dwellings. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. Ltd. All rights reserved.