Subpopulation triage: How to allocate conservation effort among populations

Threatened species often exist in a small number of isolated subpopulations. Given limitations on conservation spending, managers must choose from strategies that range from managing just one subpopulation and risking all other subpopulations to managing all subpopulations equally and poorly, thereby risking the loss of all subpopulations. We took an economic approach to this problem in an effort to discover a simple rule of thumb for optimally allocating conservation effort among subpopulations. This rule was derived by maximizing the expected number of extant subpopulations remaining given n subpopulations are actually managed. We also derived a spatiotemporally optimized strategy through stochastic dynamic programming. The rule of thumb suggested that more subpopulations should be managed if the budget increases or if the cost of reducing local extinction probabilities decreases. The rule performed well against the exact optimal strategy that was the result of the stochastic dynamic program and much better than other simple strategies (e.g., always manage one extant subpopulation or half of the remaining subpopulation). We applied our approach to the allocation of funds in 2 contrasting case studies: reduction of poaching of Sumatran tigers (Panthera tigris sumatrae) and habitat acquisition for San Joaquin kit foxes (Vulpes macrotis mutica). For our estimated annual budget for Sumatran tiger management, the mean time to extinction was about 32 years. For our estimated annual management budget for kit foxes in the San Joaquin Valley, the mean time to extinction was approximately 24 years. Our framework allows managers to deal with the important question of how to allocate scarce conservation resources among subpopulations of any threatened species. © 2008 Society for Conservation Biology.

Hospital-empresa : crónica de um nascimento retardado : Políticas de saúde : Em foco

RESUMO - A gestão empresarial dos hospitais é uma velha aspiração do sistema e dos profissionais da saúde em Portugal. Já o Estatuto Hospitalar de 1968 previa a organização e a gestão dos hospitais «em termos de gestão empresarial». A Lei de Bases da Saúde, de 1990, relembrava que a administração das unidades de saúde deveria obedecer a «regras de gestão empresarial». O Hospital Fernando da Fonseca, criado desde 1991, foi objecto de concessão de gestão por contrato, precedendo concurso público, a uma entidade privada, em 1995. Em 1997, o relatório do Grupo de Trabalho sobre o Estatuto Jurídico do Hospital recomendava a adopção da figura de instituto público com natureza empresarial, adequada autonomia de gestão e forte responsabilidade, podendo regular-se, em alguns domínios, por normas de direito privado. Em 1998 foi criado o Hospital de São Sebastião, em Santa Maria da Feira, com formas inovadoras de gestão, utilizando meios de gestão maleáveis. Em 1999 foi criada a Unidade Local de Saúde de Matosinhos, englobando não apenas o Hospital de Pedro Hispano, naquela cidade, mas também os quatro centros de saúde da sua área de atracção. Em 2001 foi criado o Hospital do Barlavento Algarvio, em moldes semelhantes aos do Hospital de São Sebastião. Os restantes hospitais públicos mantiveram a estrutura e regras de funcionamento convencionais. Observa-se que o modelo de gestão convencional do hospital público tem hoje consequências desfavoráveis para os cidadãos, para os profissionais que nele trabalham e também para o sistema de saúde no seu conjunto. Em 2002, uma nova lei alterou disposições da Lei de Bases da Saúde de 1990 e aprovou um novo regime jurídico de gestão hospitalar. De acordo com ele, a rede de prestação de cuidados de saúde passou a integrar vários modelos de hospitais: hospitais SPA, hospitais EPE, hospitais SA, clínicas privadas com ou sem nome de hospital, instituições e serviços geridos por entidades públicas ou privadas, mediante contrato de gestão e hospitais PPP. Analisam-se os ganhos introduzidos pelo modelo inovador de hospital SA, no que respeita ao estatuto, dotação de capital, poderes especiais, regras de controlo financeiro, regimes laborais, órgãos sociais, instrumentos de gestão e direcção técnica. Finalmente, antecipa-se um quadro analítico de oportunidades e riscos sobre este modelo. As críticas têm-se concentrado sobre a estratégia de mudança e sobre o mecanismo de escolha dos dirigentes e das respectivas chefias intermédias. Em relação à estratégia, conclui-se ser a questão mais empírica do que conceptual. Em relação à forma de identificação dos dirigentes, recomenda-se o acompanhamento crítico da experiência, salientando-se, a par do que ela pode trazer de positivo, os riscos de partidarização e instabilidade.

Option contracts for allocating water in inter-basin transfers: the case of the Tagus-Segura Basin in Spain

Users in the Mediterranean region face significant water supply risks. Water markets mechanisms can provide flexibility to water systems run in tight situations. The largest water infrastructure in the Iberian Peninsula connects the Segura and Tagus Basins. Stakeholders and politicians in the Tagus Basin have asked that water transfers between the two basins be eventually phased out. The need to increase the statutory minimum environmental flow in the middle Tagus and to meet new urban demands is going to result in a redefinition of the Transfer?s management rules, leading to a reduction in the transferable volumes. To minimise the consequences of such restrictions to irrigators in the Segura Basin who depend on the transferred volumes, we propose the establishment of water option contracts between both basins that represents an institutional innovation with respect to previous inter-basin spot market experiences. Based on the draft of the new Tagus Basin Plan, we propose both a modification of the Transfer?s management rule and an innovative inter-basin option contract. The main goal of the paper is to define this contract and evaluate it with respect to non-market scenarios. We also assess the resulting impact on environmental flows in the Tagus River and water availability for users in the Segura Basin, together with the economic impacts of such contract on both basins. Our results show that the proposed option contract would reduce the impact of a change in the transfer?s management rule, and reduce the supply risks of the recipient area.

The rule of law, the public interest and the management of natural resources in Australia

The statutory arrangements for the management of natural resources in Australia confer powers of decision-making upon government agencies and, at the same time, restrict how these powers are to be exercised by reference either to stated criteria or in some instances to the public interest. These restrictions perform different functions according to their structure, form and language: for example they may be in the form of jurisdictional, deliberative or purposive rules. This article reviews how the offshore resources legislation of the Commonwealth and some examples of the onshore resources legislation of Queensland address the functions performed by the public interest in determining whether there is compliance with the principle of the rule of law.

RuleOMS: A rule-based online management system

We propose an architecture for a rule-based online management systems (RuleOMS). Typically, many domain areas face the problem that stakeholders maintain databases of their business core information and they have to take decisions or create reports according to guidelines, policies or regulations. To address this issue we propose the integration of databases, in particular relational databases, with a logic reasoner and rule engine. We argue that defeasible logic is an appropriate formalism to model rules, in particular when the rules are meant to model regulations. The resulting RuleOMS provides an efficient and flexible solution to the problem at hand using defeasible inference. A case study of an online child care management system is used to illustrate the proposed architecture.

Modelling the manager: Representing rule-based management in farming systems simulation models

We trace the evolution of the representation of management in cropping and grazing systems models, from fixed annual schedules of identical actions in single paddocks toward flexible scripts of rules. Attempts to define higher-level organizing concepts in management policies, and to analyse them to identify optimal plans, have focussed on questions relating to grazing management owing to its inherent complexity. “Rule templates” assist the re-use of complex management scripts by bundling commonly-used collections of rules with an interface through which key parameters can be input by a simulation builder. Standard issues relating to parameter estimation and uncertainty apply to management sub-models and need to be addressed. Techniques for embodying farmers' expectations and plans for the future within modelling analyses need to be further developed, especially better linking planning- and rule-based approaches to farm management and analysing the ways that managers can learn.

Indoor air quality and energy management through real–time sensing in commercial buildings

Rapid growth in the global population requires expansion of building stock, which in turn calls for increased energy demand. This demand varies in time and also between different buildings, yet, conventional methods are only able to provide mean energy levels per zone and are unable to capture this inhomogeneity, which is important to conserve energy. An additional challenge is that some of the attempts to conserve energy, through for example lowering of ventilation rates, have been shown to exacerbate another problem, which is unacceptable indoor air quality (IAQ). The rise of sensing technology over the past decade has shown potential to address both these issues simultaneously by providing high–resolution tempo–spatial data to systematically analyse the energy demand and its consumption as well as the impacts of measures taken to control energy consumption on IAQ. However, challenges remain in the development of affordable services for data analysis, deployment of large–scale real–time sensing network and responding through Building Energy Management Systems. This article presents the fundamental drivers behind the rise of sensing technology for the management of energy and IAQ in urban built environments, highlights major challenges for their large–scale deployment and identifies the research gaps that should be closed by future investigations.

Adaptive Measurement-Based Policy-Driven QoS Management with Fuzzy-Rule-based Resource Allocation

Fixed and wireless networks are increasingly converging towards common connectivity with IP-based core networks. Providing effective end-to-end resource and QoS management in such complex heterogeneous converged network scenarios requires unified, adaptive and scalable solutions to integrate and co-ordinate diverse QoS mechanisms of different access technologies with IP-based QoS. Policy-Based Network Management (PBNM) is one approach that could be employed to address this challenge. Hence, a policy-based framework for end-to-end QoS management in converged networks, CNQF (Converged Networks QoS Management Framework) has been proposed within our project. In this paper, the CNQF architecture, a Java implementation of its prototype and experimental validation of key elements are discussed. We then present a fuzzy-based CNQF resource management approach and study the performance of our implementation with real traffic flows on an experimental testbed. The results demonstrate the efficacy of our resource-adaptive approach for practical PBNM systems

Managing groups of files in a rule oriented data management system (iRODS)

The iRODS system, created by the San Diego Supercomputing Centre, is a rule oriented data management system that allows the user to create sets of rules to define how the data is to be managed. Each rule corresponds to a particular action or operation (such as checksumming a file) and the system is flexible enough to allow the user to create new rules for new types of operations. The iRODS system can interface to any storage system (provided an iRODS driver is built for that system) and relies on its’ metadata catalogue to provide a virtual file-system that can handle files of any size and type. However, some storage systems (such as tape systems) do not handle small files efficiently and prefer small files to be packaged up (or “bundled”) into larger units. We have developed a system that can bundle small data files of any type into larger units - mounted collections. The system can create collection families and contains its’ own extensible metadata, including metadata on which family the collection belongs to. The mounted collection system can work standalone and is being incorporated into the iRODS system to enhance the systems flexibility to handle small files. In this paper we describe the motivation for creating a mounted collection system, its’ architecture and how it has been incorporated into the iRODS system. We describe different technologies used to create the mounted collection system and provide some performance numbers.

A model of intelligent building energy management for the indoor environment

People's interaction with the indoor environment plays a significant role in energy consumption in buildings. Mismatching and delaying occupants' feedback on the indoor environment to the building energy management system is the major barrier to the efficient energy management of buildings. There is an increasing trend towards the application of digital technology to support control systems in order to achieve energy efficiency in buildings. This article introduces a holistic, integrated, building energy management model called `smart sensor, optimum decision and intelligent control' (SMODIC). The model takes into account occupants' responses to the indoor environments in the control system. The model of optimal decision-making based on multiple criteria of indoor environments has been integrated into the whole system. The SMODIC model combines information technology and people centric concepts to achieve energy savings in buildings.

Pooling data for pest management analysis : a Stein-rule approach /

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