Change escalation processes and complex adaptive systems: from incremental reconfigurations to discontinuous restructuring

This study examines when “incremental” change is likely to trigger “discontinuous” change, using the lens of complex adaptive systems theory. Going beyond the simulations and case studies through which complex adaptive systems have been approached so far, we study the relationship between incremental organizational reconfigurations and discontinuous organizational restructurings using a large-scale database of U.S. Fortune 50 industrial corporations. We develop two types of escalation process in organizations: accumulation and perturbation. Under ordinary conditions, it is perturbation rather than the accumulation that is more likely to trigger subsequent discontinuous change. Consistent with complex adaptive systems theory, organizations are more sensitive to both accumulation and perturbation in conditions of heightened disequilibrium. Contrary to expectations, highly interconnected organizations are not more liable to discontinuous change. We conclude with implications for further research, especially the need to attend to the potential role of managerial design and coping when transferring complex adaptive systems theory from natural systems to organizational systems.

Crisis communication under transformative change : the emergent context and roles of primary and secondary organisations

In an era of complex challenges that draw sustained media attention and entangle multiple organisational actors, this thesis addresses the gap between current trends in society and business, and existing scholarship in public relations and crisis communication. By responding to calls from crisis communication researchers to develop theory (Coombs, 2006a), to examine the interdependencies of crises (Seeger, Sellnow, & Ulmer, 1998), and to consider variation in crisis response (Seeger, 2002), this thesis contributes to theory development in crisis communication and public relations. Through transformative change, this thesis extends existing scholarship built on a preservation or conservation logic where public relations is used to maintain stability by incrementally responding to changes in an organisation‘s environment (Cutlip, Center, & Broom, 2006; Everett, 2001; Grunig, 2000; Spicer, 1997). Based on the opportunity to contribute to ongoing theoretical development in the literature, the overall research problem guiding this thesis asks: How does transformative change during crisis influence corporate actors’ communication? This thesis adopts punctuated equilibrium theory, which describes change as alternating between long periods of stability and short periods of revolutionary or transformative change (Gersick, 1991; Romanelli & Tushman, 1994; Siggelkow, 2002; Tushman, Newman, & Romanelli, 1986; Tushman & Romanelli, 1985). As a theory for change, punctuated equilibrium provides an opportunity to examine public relations and transformative change, building on scholarship that is based primarily on incremental change. Further, existing scholarship in public relations and crisis communication focuses on the actions of single organisations in situational or short-term crisis events. Punctuated equilibrium theory enables the study of multiple crises and multiple organisational responses during transformative change. In doing so, punctuated equilibrium theory provides a framework to explain both the context for transformative change and actions or strategies enacted by organisations during transformative change (Tushman, Newman, & Romanelli, 1986; Tushman & Romanelli, 1985; Tushman, Virany, & Romanelli, 1986). The connections between context and action inform the research questions that guide this thesis: RQ1: What symbolic and substantive strategies persist and change as crises develop from situational events to transformative and multiple linked events? RQ2: What features of the crisis context influence changes in symbolic and substantive strategies? To shed light on these research questions, the thesis adopts a qualitative approach guided by process theory and methods to explicate the events, sequences and activities that were essential to change (Pettigrew, 1992; Van de Ven, 1992). Specifically, the thesis draws on an alternative template strategy (Langley, 1999) that provides several alternative interpretations of the same events (Allison, 1971; Allison & Zelikow, 1999). Following Allison (1971) and Allison and Zelikow (1999), this thesis uses three alternative templates of crisis or strategic response typologies to construct three narratives using media articles and organisational documents. The narratives are compared to identify and draw out different patterns of crisis communication strategies that operate within different crisis contexts. The thesis is based on the crisis events that affected three organisations within the pharmaceutical industry for four years. The primary organisation is Merck, as its product recall crisis triggered transformative change affecting, in different ways, the secondary organisations of Pfizer and Novartis. Three narratives are presented based on the crisis or strategic response typologies of Coombs (2006b), Allen and Caillouet (1994), and Oliver (1991). The findings of this thesis reveal different stories about crisis communication under transformative change. By zooming in to a micro perspective (Nicolini, 2009) to focus on the crisis communication and actions of a single organisation and zooming out to a macro perspective (Nicolini, 2009) to consider multiple organisations, new insights about crisis communication, change and the relationships among multiple organisations are revealed at context and action levels. At the context level, each subsequent narrative demonstrates greater connections among multiple corporate actors. By zooming out from Coombs‘ (2006b) focus on single organisations to consider Allen and Caillouet‘s (1994) integration of the web of corporate actors, the thesis demonstrates how corporate actors add accountability pressures to the primary organisation. Next, by zooming further out to the macro perspective by considering Oliver‘s (1991) strategic responses to institutional processes, the thesis reveals a greater range of corporate actors that are caught up in the process of transformative change and accounts for their varying levels of agency over their environment. By zooming in to a micro perspective and out to a macro perspective (Nicolini, 2009) across alternative templates, the thesis sheds light on sequences, events, and actions of primary and secondary organisations. Although the primary organisation remains the focus of sustained media attention across the four-year time frame, the secondary organisations, even when one faced a similar starting situation to the primary organisation, were buffered by the process of transformative change. This understanding of crisis contexts in transforming environments builds on existing knowledge in crisis communication. At the action level, the thesis also reveals different interpretations from each alternative template. Coombs‘ (2006b) narrative shows persistence in the primary organisation‘s crisis or strategic responses over the four-year time frame of the thesis. That is, the primary organisation consistently applies a diminish crisis response. At times, the primary organisation drew on denial responses when corporate actors questioned its legitimacy or actions. To close the crisis, the primary organisation uses a rebuild crisis posture (Coombs, 2006). These finding are replicated in Allen and Caillouet‘s (1994) narrative, noting this template‘s limitation to communication messages only. Oliver‘s (1991) narrative is consistent with Coombs‘ (2006b) but also demonstrated a shift from a strategic response that signals conformity to the environment to one that signals more active resistance to the environment over time. Specifically, the primary organisation‘s initial response demonstrates conformity but these same messages were used some three years later to set new expectations in the environment in order to shape criteria and build acceptance for future organisational decisions. In summary, the findings demonstrate the power of crisis or strategic responses when considered over time and in the context of transformative change. The conclusions of this research contribute to scholarship in the public relations and management literatures. Based on the significance of organisational theory, the primary contribution of the theory relates to the role of interorganisational linkages or legitimacy buffers that form during the punctuation of equilibrium. The network of linkages among the corporate actors are significant also to the crisis communication literature as they form part of the process model of crisis communication under punctuated equilibrium. This model extends existing research that focuses on crisis communication of single organisations to consider the emergent context that incorporates secondary organisations as well as the localised contests of legitimacy and buffers from regulatory authorities. The thesis also provides an empirical base for punctuated equilibrium in public relations and crisis communication, extending Murphy‘s (2000) introduction of the theory to the public relations literature. In doing this, punctuated equilibrium theory reinvigorates theoretical development in crisis communication by extending existing scholarship around incrementalist approaches and demonstrating how public relations works in the context of transformative change. Further research in this area could consider using alternative templates to study transformative change caused by a range of crisis types from natural disasters to product tampering, and to add further insight into the dynamics between primary and secondary organisations. This thesis contributes to practice by providing guidelines for crisis response strategy selection and indicators related to the emergent context for crises under transformative change that will help primary and secondary organisations‘ responses to crises.

A new theory of educational change - punctuated equilibrium: the case of the internationalisation of Higher Education institutions

This article argues for a new theoretical paradigm for the analysis of change in educational institutions that is able to deal with such issues as readiness for change, transformational change and the failure of change strategies. Punctuated equilibrium (Tushman and Romanelli, 1985) is a theory which has wide application. It envisages long-term change as being made up of a succession of long periods of relative stability interspersed by brief periods of rapid profound change. In the periods of stability only relatively small incremental changes are possible. The periods of transformational change may be triggered by external or internal influences. A recent study of the long-term process of internationalisation in higher education institutions shows evidence to support the theory: long periods of incremental change, events precipitating profound change and the failure of externally imposed attempts to change. Also, as the theory predicts, changes in collegial organisations are slower and more uncertain than changes in managed organisations.

A risk-based approach to course quality assurance

A decade ago, Queensland University of Technology (QUT) developed an innovative annual Courses Performance Report, but through incremental change, this report became quite labour-intensive. A new risk-based approach to course quality assurance, that consolidates voluminous data in a simple dashboard, responds to the changing context of the higher education sector. This paper will briefly describe QUT’s context and outline the second phase of implementation of this new approach to course quality assurance. The main components are: Individual Course Reports (ICRs), the Consolidated Courses Performance Report (CCPR), Underperforming Courses Status Update and the Strategic Faculty Courses Update (SFCU). These components together form a parsimonious and strategic annual cycle of reporting and place QUT in a positive position to respond to future sector change

An economic case for providing free access to antiretroviral therapy for HIV-positive people in South Australia

Background As financial constraints can be a barrier to accessing HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART), we argue for the removal of copayment requirements from HIV medications in South Australia. Methods Using a simple mathematical model informed by available behavioural and biological data and reflecting the HIV epidemiology in South Australia, we calculated the expected number of new HIV transmissions caused by persons who are not currently on ART compared with transmissions for people on ART. The extra financial investment required to cover the copayments to prevent an HIV infection was compared with the treatment costs saved due to averting HIV infections. Results It was estimated that one HIV infection is prevented per year for every 31.4 persons (median, 24.0–42.7 interquartile range (IQR)) who receive treatment. By considering the incremental change in costs and outcomes of a change in program from the current status quo, it would cost the health sector $17 860 per infection averted (median, $13 651–24 287 IQR) if ART is provided as a three-dose, three-drug combination without requirements for user-pay copayments. Conclusions The costs of removing copayment fees for ART are less than the costs of treating extra HIV infections that would result under current conditions. Removing the copayment requirement for HIV medication would be cost-effective from a governmental perspective.

Sequence specific recognition and cleavage of DNA by synthetic molecules

DNA recognition is an essential biological process responsible for the regulation of cellular functions including protein synthesis and cell division and is implicated in the mechanism of action of some anticancer drugs. Studies directed towards defining the elements responsible for sequence specific DNA recognition through the study of the interactions of synthetic organic ligands with DNA are described.

DNA recognition by poly-N-methylpyrrolecarboxamides was studied by the synthesis and characterization of a series of molecules where the number of contiguous N-methylpyrrolecarboxamide units was increased from 2 to 9. The effect of this incremental change in structure on DNA recognition has been investigated at base pair resolution using affinity cleaving and MPE•Fe(II) footprinting techniques. These studies led to a quantitative relationship between the number of amides in the molecule and the DNA binding site size. This relationship is called the n + 1 rule and it states that a poly-N methylpyrrolecarboxamide molecule with n amides will bind n + 1 base pairs of DNA. This rule is consistent with a model where the carboxamides of these compounds form three center bridging hydrogen bonds between adjacent base pairs on opposite strands of the helix. The poly-N methylpyrrolecarboxamide recognition element was found to preferentially bind poly dA•poly dT stretches; however, both binding site selection and orientation were found to be affected by flanking sequences. Cleavage of large DNA is also described.

One approach towards the design of molecules that bind large sequences of double helical DNA sequence specifically is to couple DNA binding subunits of similar or diverse base pair specificity. Bis-EDTA-distamycin-fumaramide (BEDF) is an octaamide dimer of two tri-N methylpyrrolecarboxamide subunits linked by fumaramide. DNA recognition by BEDF was compared to P7E, an octaamide molecule containing seven consecutive pyrroles. These two compounds were found to recognize the same sites on pBR322 with approximately the same affinities demonstrating that fumaramide is an effective linking element for Nmethylpyrrolecarboxamide recognition subunits. Further studies involved the synthesis and characterization of a trimer of tetra-N-methylpyrrolecarboxamide subunits linked by β-alanine ((P4)_(3)E). This trimerization produced a molecule which is capable of recognizing 16 base pairs of A•T DNA, more than a turn and a half of the DNA helix.

DNA footprinting is a powerful direct method for determining the binding sites of proteins and small molecules on heterogeneous DNA. It was found that attachment of EDTA•Fe(II) to spermine creates a molecule, SE•Fe(II), which binds and cleaves DNA sequence neutrally. This lack of specificity provides evidence that at the nucleotide level polyamines recognize heterogeneous DNA independent of sequence and allows SE•Fe(II) to be used as a footprinting reagent. SE•Fe(II) was compared with two other small molecule footprinting reagents, EDTA•Fe(II) and MPE•Fe(II).

Development of a tool for rapidly assessing the implementation difficulty and emissions benefits of innovations

Consumer goods manufacturers aiming to reduce the environmental impact associated with their products commonly pursue incremental change strategies, but more radical approaches may be required if we are to address the challenges of sustainable consumption. One strategy to realize step change reductions is to prepare a portfolio of innovations providing different levels of impact reduction in exchange for different levels of organizational resource commitment. In this research a tool is developed to support this strategy, starting with the assumption that through brainstorming or other eco-innovation approaches, a long-list of candidate innovations has been created. The tool assesses the potential greenhouse gas benefit of an innovative option against the difficulty of its implementation. A simple greenhouse gas benefit assessment method based on streamlined LCA was used to analyze impact reduction potential, and a novel measure of implementation difficulty was developed. The predictions of implementation difficulty were compared against expert opinion, and showed similar results indicating the measure can be used sensibly to predict implementation difficulty. The assessment of the environmental gain versus implementation difficulty is visualized in a matrix, showing the trade-offs of several options. The tool is deliberately simple with scalar measures of CO 2 emissions benefits and implementation difficulty so tool users must remain aware of other potential environmental burdens besides greenhouse gases (e.g. water, waste). In addition, although relative life cycle emissions benefits of an option may be low, the absolute impact of an option can be high and there may be other co-benefits, which could justify higher levels of implementation difficulty. Different types of consumer products (e.g. household, personal care, foods) have been evaluated using the tool. Initial trials of the tool within Unilever demonstrate that the tool facilitates rapid evaluation of low-carbon innovations. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Constructing Universities as Organizations: University Reforms in Poland in the Light of Institutional Theory

This chapter shows that apart from changes at the systemic and institutional levels, successful reform implementation struggles with a gradual change in academic beliefs, attitudes and behaviours. Currently, visions of the university proposed by the Polish academic community and visions of it proposed by Polish reformers and policymakers (within ongoing reforms) are worlds apart. I shall study recent reforms in the context of specific academic self--protective narratives being produced in the last two decades (at the collective level of the academic profession) and in the context of the Ivory Tower university ideals predominant at the individual level (as studied comparatively through a large--scale European survey of the academic profession). Institutions change both swiftly, radically – and slowly, gradually. Research literature on institutional change until recently was focused almost exclusively on the role of radical changes caused by external shocks, leading to radical institutional reconfigurations. And research literature about the gradual, incremental institutional change have been emergent for about a decade and a half now (Mahoney and Thelen 2010; Streeck and Thelen 2005, 2009; Thelen 2003). Polish higher education provides interesting empirical grounds to test institutional theories. Both types of transformations (radical and gradual) may lead to equally permanent changes in the functioning of institutions, equally deep transformations of their fundamental rules, norms and operating procedures. Questions about institutional change are questions about characteristics of institutions undergoing changes. Endogenous institutional change is as important as exogenous change (Mahoney and Thelen 2010: 3). Moments in which there emerge opportunities of performing deep institutional reforms are short (in Poland these moments occurred in 2009-2012), and between them there are long periods of institutional stasis and stability (Pierson 2004: 134-135). The premises of theories of institutional change can be applied systematically to a system of higher education which shows an unprecedented rate of change and which is exposed to broad, fundamental reform programmes. There are many ways to discuss the Kudrycka reforms - and "constructing Polish universities as organizations" (rather than traditional academic "institutions") is one of more promising. In this account, Polish universities are under construction as organizations, and under siege as institutions. They are being rationalized as organizations, following instrumental rather than institutional logics. Polish academics in their views and attitudes are still following an institutional logic, while Polish reforms are following the new (New Public Management-led) instrumental logics. Both are on a collision course about basic values. Reforms and reformees seem to be worlds apart. I am discussing the the two contrasting visions of the university and describing the Kudrycka reforms as the reistitutionalization of the research mission of Polish universities. The core of reforms is a new level of funding and governance - the intermediary one (and no longer the state one), with four new peer-run institutions, with the KEJN, PKA and NCN in the lead. Poland has been beginning to follow the "global rules of the academic game" since 2009. I am also discussing two academic self-protection modes agains reforms: (Polish) "national academic traditions" and "institutional exceptionalism" (of Polish HE). Both discourses prevailed for two decades, none seems socially (and politically) acceptable any more. Old myths do not seem to fit new realities. In this context I am discussing briefly and through large-scale empirical data the low connectedness to the outside world of Polish HE institutions, low influence of the government on HE policies and the low level of academic entrepreneurialism, as seen through the EUROAC/CAP micro-level data. The conclusion is that the Kudrycka reforms are an imporant first step only - Poland is too slow in reforms, and reforms are both underfunded and inconsistent. Poland is still accumulating disadvantages as public funding and university reforms have not reached a critical point. Ever more efforts lead to ever less results, as macro-level data show. Consequently, it may be useful to construct universities as organizations in Poland to a higher degree than elsewhere in Europe, and especially in Western Europe.

Crescimento de prematuros de extremo baixo peso nos primeiros dois anos de vida

OBJETIVO: Analisar o padrão de crescimento de prematuros de extremo baixo peso (EBP) até 24 meses de idade corrigida, a influência da displasia broncopulmonar (DBP) e os fatores de risco para falha de crescimento. MÉTODOS: Coorte de prematuros <1.000g de gestação única, nascidos e acompanhados em um centro terciário. O crescimento foi avaliado por meio de escores-z para peso, comprimento e perímetro cefálico ao nascimento, com 40 semanas, aos 3, 6, 12, 18 e 24 meses de idade corrigida. Dentre 81 sobreviventes, 70 foram estudados e estratificados em dois grupos: DBP (n=41) e sem DBP (n=29). Foi realizada análise bivariada com teste t ou Mann-Whitney, qui-quadrado ou Exato de Fisher, e análise multivariada com regressão logística. RESULTADOS: em ambos os grupos, o escore-z de peso diminuiu significantemente entre o nascimento e 40 semanas. Houve um pico de incremento nos escores-z de peso, comprimento e perímetro cefálico entre 40 semanas e três meses. No grupo sem DBP, os escores-z atingiram a faixa normal a partir dos seis meses e assim permaneceram até 24 meses de idade corrigida. Crianças com DBP tiveram menores escores-z de peso e perímetro cefálico no primeiro ano, mas equipararam-se às sem DBP no segundo ano de vida. A regressão logística mostrou que catch-down no escore-z de peso com 40 semanas foi fator de risco para falha de crescimento. CONCLUSÕES: Prematuros EBP apresentam catch-up precoce do crescimento nos primeiros dois anos. Crianças com DBP têm pior crescimento ponderal. A restrição do crescimento pós-natal prediz a falha de crescimento nos primeiros anos.

Political economy of the Agenda 2010 reforms: How Gerhard Schröder overcame the "blocked republic". ACES Cases No. 2008.3

This essay will show that the Schröder-led government managed to break the political gridlock and introduce the Agenda 2010 because key institutional structures of Germany‟s political economy had lost their obstructive powers. In other words, the formerly semi-sovereign state had reclaimed its sovereignty. To understand how this happened, Peter Katzenstein's concept of the semi-sovereign state is first explored as a framework through which to analyze economic policy continuity and change. Within this framework, the causes for constant reform inertia between 1982 and 2002, in spite of varying political constellations and changes in the country‟s economic structure, are then discussed. This analysis will demonstrate that the Agenda 2010 reforms are predominantly a result of underlying incremental change in the political economy and its effect on the political decision-making process. Finally, the findings of this analysis are summarized and discussed with the aim of better understanding the economic policies of the current grand coalition government of the CDU/CSU and the SPD government under Chancellor Angela Merkel.

The politics of exclusion:institutions and immigration policy in contemporary Germany

Immigration is one of the most sensitive issues of modern European politics. Nowhere is this more the case than in Germany, as a result of its history and the sheer scale of immigration it has experienced since 1945. Yet despite this background, Germany's immigration, residence and citizenship policy has been more restrictive when compared to that of many other countries; indeed, official policy long maintained that Germany was not a 'country of immigration'. But why has this been the case? The politics of exclusion provides a new analytical perspective on immigration in Germany, tracing the country's immigration and citizenship policy since the Second World War. The book argues that institutional politics are central to understanding why Germany's policy structures have experienced only incremental change over the past 20 years, and have remained comparatively restrictive. With its lively and accessible style, the book will appeal to advanced scholars and students of immigration and Germany.

Genetic markers, birth characteristics, and childhood leukemia risk

The cause for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) remains unknown, but male gender is a risk factor, and among ethnicities, Hispanics have the highest risk. In this dissertation, we explored correlations among genetic polymorphisms, birth characteristics, and the risk of childhood ALL in a multi-ethnic sample in 161 cases and 231 controls recruited contemporaneously (2007-2012) in Houston, TX. We first examined three lymphoma risk markers, since lymphoma and ALL both stem from lymphoid cells. Of these, rs2395185 showed a risk association in non-Hispanic White males (OR=2.8, P=0.02; P interaction=0.03 for gender), but not in Hispanics. We verified previously known risk associations to validate the case-control sample. Mutations of HFE (C282Y, H63D) were genotyped to test whether iron-regulatory gene (IRG) variants known to elevate iron levels increase childhood ALL risk. Being positive for either polymorphism yielded only a modestly elevated OR in males, which increased to 2.96 (P=0.01) in the presence of a particular transferrin receptor (TFRC) genotype for rs3817672 (Pinteraction=0.04). SNP rs3817672 itself showed an ethnicity-specific association (P interaction=0.02 for ethnicity). We then examined additional IRG SNPs (rs422982, rs855791, rs733655), which showed risk associations in males (ORs=1.52 to 2.60). A polygenic model based on the number of polymorphic alleles in five IRG SNPs revealed a linear increase in risk (OR=2.00 per incremental change; P=0.002). Having three or more alleles compared with none was associated with increased risk in males (OR=4.12; P=0.004). Significant risk associations with childhood ALL was found with birth length (OR=1.18 per inch, P=0.04), high birth weight (>4,000g) (OR=1.93, P=0.01), and with gestational age (OR=1.10 per week, P=0.04). We observed a negative correlation between HFE SNP rs9366637 and gestational age (P=0.005), again, stronger in males ( P=0.001) and interacting with TFRC (P interaction=0.05). Our results showed that (i) ALL risk markers do not show universal associations across ethnicities or between genders, (ii) IRG SNPs modify ALL risk presumably by their effects on iron levels, (iii) a negative correlation between an HFE SNP and gestational age exists, which implicates an iron-related mechanism. The results suggest that currently unregulated supplemental iron intake may have implications on childhood ALL development.