The impact of different glacial boundary conditions on atmospheric dynamics and precipitation in the North Atlantic region

Using a highly resolved atmospheric general circulation model, the impact of different glacial boundary conditions on precipitation and atmospheric dynamics in the North Atlantic region is investigated. Six 30-yr time slice experiments of the Last Glacial Maximum at 21 thousand years before the present (ka BP) and of a less pronounced glacial state – the Middle Weichselian (65 ka BP) – are compared to analyse the sensitivity to changes in the ice sheet distribution, in the radiative forcing and in the prescribed time-varying sea surface temperature and sea ice, which are taken from a lower-resolved, but fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. The strongest differences are found for simulations with different heights of the Laurentide ice sheet. A high surface elevation of the Laurentide ice sheet leads to a southward displacement of the jet stream and the storm track in the North Atlantic region. These changes in the atmospheric dynamics generate a band of increased precipitation in the mid-latitudes across the Atlantic to southern Europe in winter, while the precipitation pattern in summer is only marginally affected. The impact of the radiative forcing differences between the two glacial periods and of the prescribed time-varying sea surface temperatures and sea ice are of second order importance compared to the one of the Laurentide ice sheet. They affect the atmospheric dynamics and precipitation in a similar but less pronounced manner compared with the topographic changes.

Impacts of the Madden-Julian oscillation on intraseasonal precipitation over northeast Brazil

Este estudo tem como objetivo investigar os impactos da oscilação de Madden-Julian (OMJ) na precipitação da região Nordeste do Brasil (NEB). Para tanto foram utilizados dados diários de precipitação baseados em 492 pluviômetros distribuídos na região e cobrindo um período de 30 anos (1981 − 2010). As análises através de composições de anomalias de precipitação, radiação de onda longa e fluxo de umidade, foram obtidas com base no índice da OMJ desenvolvido por Jones-Carvalho. Para distinguir o sinal da OMJ de outros padrões de variabilidade climática, todos os dados diários foram filtrados na escala de 20 − 90 dias; portanto somente dias classificados como eventos da OMJ foram considerados nas composições. Uma análise preliminar baseada apenas nos dados de precipitação foi feita para uma pequena área localizada no interior semiárido do NEB, conhecida como Seridó. Essa microrregião é uma das áreas mais secas do NEB e foi reconhecida pela Convenção das Nações Unidas para o Combate à Desertificação e Mitigação dos Efeitos das Secas como particularmente vulnerável à desertificação. Composições de anomalias de precipitação foram feitas para cada uma das oito fases da OMJ durante Fevereiro-Maio (principal período chuvoso da microrregião). Os resultados mostraram a existência de variações significativas nos padrões de precipitação (de precipitação excessiva à deficiente) associados à propagação da OMJ. A combinação dos sinais de precipitação obtidos durantes as fases úmidas e secas da OMJ mostrou que a diferença corresponde cerca de 50 − 150% de modulação das chuvas na microrregião. Em seguida, uma investigação abrangente sobre o papel da OMJ sobre toda a região Nordeste foi feita considerando-se as quatro estações do ano. Os resultados mostraram que os impactos da OMJ na precipitação intrassazonal do NEB apresentam forte sazonalidade. A maior coerência espacial dos sinais de precipitação ocorreram durante o verão austral, quando cerca de 80% das estações pluviométricas apresentaram anomalias positivas de precipitação durante as fases 1 − 2 da OMJ e anomalias negativas de precipitação nas fases 5 − 6 da oscilação. Embora impactos da OMJ na precipitação intrassazonal tenham sido encontrados na maioria das localidades e em todas as estações do ano, eles apresentaram variações na magnitude dos sinais e dependem da fase da oscilação. As anomalias de precipitação do NEB observadas são explicadas através da interação existente entre as ondas de Kelvin-Rossby acopladas convectivamente e as características climáticas predominantes sobre a região em cada estação do ano. O aumento de precipitação observado sobre a maior parte do NEB durante o verão e primavera austrais encontra-se associado com o fluxo de umidade de oeste (regime de oeste), o qual favorece a atividade convectiva em amplas áreas da América do Sul tropical. Por outro lado, as anomalias de precipitação durante o inverno e outono austrais apresentaram uma variabilidade espacial mais complexa. Durante estas estações, as anomalias de precipitação observadas nas estações localizadas na costa leste do NEB dependem da intensidade do anticiclone do Atlântico Sul, o qual é modulado em grande parte por ondas de Rossby. As características topográficas do NEB parecem desempenhar um papel importante na variabilidade observada na precipitação, principalmente nestas áreas costeiras. A intensificação do anticiclone aumenta a convergência dos ventos alísios na costa contribuindo para a ocorrência de precipitação observada à barlavento do planalto da Borborema. Por outro lado, o aumento da subsidência parece ser responsável pelos déficits de precipitação observados à sotavento. Tais condições mostraram-se típicas durante o predomínio do regime de leste sobre a região tropical da América do Sul e o NEB, durante o qual ocorre uma diminuição no fluxo de umidade proveniente da Amazônia.

The Roles of Land and Orography on Precipitation and Ocean Circulation in Global Climate Models

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Potential Arctic tundra vegetation shifts in response to changing temperature, precipitation and permafrost thaw

Over the past decades, vegetation and climate have changed significantly in the Arctic. Deciduous shrub cover is often assumed to expand in tundra landscapes, but more frequent abrupt permafrost thaw resulting in formation of thaw ponds could lead to vegetation shifts towards graminoid-dominated wetland. Which factors drive vegetation changes in the tundra ecosystem are still not sufficiently clear. In this study, the dynamic tundra vegetation model, NUCOM-tundra (NUtrient and COMpetition), was used to evaluate the consequences of climate change scenarios of warming and increasing precipitation for future tundra vegetation change. The model includes three plant functional types (moss, graminoids and shrubs), carbon and nitrogen cycling, water and permafrost dynamics and a simple thaw pond module. Climate scenario simulations were performed for 16 combinations of temperature and precipitation increases in five vegetation types representing a gradient from dry shrub-dominated to moist mixed and wet graminoid-dominated sites. Vegetation composition dynamics in currently mixed vegetation sites were dependent on both temperature and precipitation changes, with warming favouring shrub dominance and increased precipitation favouring graminoid abundance. Climate change simulations based on greenhouse gas emission scenarios in which temperature and precipitation increases were combined showed increases in biomass of both graminoids and shrubs, with graminoids increasing in abundance. The simulations suggest that shrub growth can be limited by very wet soil conditions and low nutrient supply, whereas graminoids have the advantage of being able to grow in a wide range of soil moisture conditions and have access to nutrients in deeper soil layers. Abrupt permafrost thaw initiating thaw pond formation led to complete domination of graminoids. However, due to increased drainage, shrubs could profit from such changes in adjacent areas. Both climate and thaw pond formation simulations suggest that a wetter tundra can be responsible for local shrub decline instead of shrub expansion.

Trans-Sierran climatic contacts during the last 12,000 years [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The early-Holocene warm period, ca. 9000 years ago, is a realistic analog for the possible effects of greenhouse warming. At that time the vegetation of the western Sierra Nevada resembled that currently found east of the crest. ... Tourism, water supply, and the logging industry will be negatively effected if climate changes during the next century are in the direction and magnitude of those of the early Holocene. Increased precipitation in the eastern Sierra could offset some of the effects.

内蒙古典型草原的群落物种组成对割草、施肥、増雨以及加热的响应

随着温室气体的大量排放、土地利用方式的改变以及气温的逐步升高，全球变化对自然生态系统的影响也日益加强，全球变化背景下植物群落物种组成的改变能够引起整个生态系统功能的变化。本论文的研究以内蒙古多伦县十三里滩全球变化多因子实验基地为依托，研究割草、施肥、増雨以及红外加热对内蒙古温带典型草原群落物种组成的影响。本研究采用传统的植物调查方法，比较样方中所有物种和功能型的变化，最终揭示植物群落结构对上述四个处理的响应状况。 研究结果表明：氮素作为中国北方典型草原生产力的重要限制因子，增加了禾草优势物种克氏针茅和冰草的盖度，提高了禾草植物盖度和群落总盖度。施磷提高了群落中豆科植物的盖度。 种群水平上，割草提高了乳白花黄芪、苔草和冷蒿等矮小植物盖度；群落水平上，提高了群落总盖度，增加了群落的物种数。但是仅仅在施氮处理下，割草显著地影响了种群和群落水平的指标。 除了氮以外，土壤水分含量也是草原生态系统的限制因素之一。虽然不同增雨方式之间对群落的影响无显著差异，但是增雨都显著地增加了群落中禾草植物和群落的总盖度。在氮肥处理样地，增雨对禾草植物的正效应更加显著。增雨单独对群落的物种丰富度没有显著的影响。 加热减少了土壤水分含量，降低了群落物种数和群落的总盖度。加热提高了群落中非禾草杂类草的比例，降低了群落中禾草植物的比例。 总之，土壤水分和活性氮含量左右了草原植物群落的物种组成。全球变化的四个主要驱动因子正是通过影响生态系统中水分和氮的有效含量来影响群落结构。施氮和增雨降低了土壤水分和氮含量的限制，割草、加热增强了土壤水分和氮的限制。基于四个驱动因子对草原生态系统相反的作用和影响，有必要进行长期的控制实验，充分了解全球变化下，内蒙古典型草原群落物种组成的变化规律。

气候变化对高纬度流域中汞和甲基汞迁移转化的影响——以降水量增加为例

全球变化的研究发现：19世纪以来全球平均气温大约上升了0.6℃，并预计在21世纪会升高更多。温室效应的直接结果是导致全球地面增温，温度的升高会增加下垫面的蒸发量。根据全球水平衡原理，蒸发量应该与降水量相等，因而降水量也会相应增加。气候变化的情景模式研究表明，世界各地雨量变异大，在高纬度地区，包括北欧地区，降水会增加。 流域是水生系统的一个重要的汞和甲基汞的输入源。欧洲淡水系统中，鱼体汞含量过高的湖泊主要局限于北方的高纬度森林地区。在斯堪的纳维亚半岛，就有上万湖泊中的鱼体汞含量超过了健康食用标准0.5 mg/kg。水生系统甲基汞输入源包括：水体或沉积物通过甲基化形成甲基汞，通过大气干、湿沉降输入的甲基汞和陆地生态系统的地表径流输入的甲基汞。 本研究的主要目标是搞清楚未来气候变化引起的大气降水量的增加对北方高纬度森林流域土壤中汞的迁移和形态转化有何影响。未来大气降水量的增加可能会增强森林地区流域土壤中汞的迁移，进而对水生系统的汞循环产生影响。一方面，如果地下水水位上涨，当水流过富含有机质结合含汞土壤层时，将会增加土壤中汞和甲基汞的迁移性，由此而导致流域向河流、湖泊等水生系统中汞输出通量的增加。另一方面，氧化还原电位改变、DOC和营养物质的释放会加剧汞在土壤中的释放过程，并且可能会促进汞的形态转化，可能增加毒性较强的甲基汞的产量，最终导致甲基汞从土壤向水生系统的输出通量的增加。 本研究选择瑞典西海岸花园湖（Gårdsjön）的G1流域作为研究对象，在流域内进行人工模拟增加降雨试验，模拟未来气候变化降水量增加的情景，观测流域地表径流中汞和甲基汞的变化。并在流域内选择四个点（1×1m²），进行汞同位素加入示踪试验。测定土壤剖面甲基汞和总汞及其同位素组成，来分析汞的迁移和形态转化。主要研究结果如下： 1. 通过对G1流域土壤中甲基汞分布的调查，发现甲基汞含量范围为0.020-3.1ng/g，甲基汞含量与TOC含量具有正相关的关系，表明土壤甲基汞的迁移受TOC迁移的影响。估算G1流域的甲基汞储库通量为123g/km2，G1流域甲基汞储库容为0.65g。 2. 通过甲基汞含量和甲基汞储库在土壤剖面的分布，可以看出表层腐殖质层甲基汞浓度最高，甲基汞最富集，而在较深的土壤层位甲基汞储库容量最大，表明甲基汞具有向下迁移的趋势。 3. 根据总汞同位素组成结果，汞同位素（198Hg(NO3)2）加入土壤中后，202Hg/198Hg比值迅速下降，然后随时间推移而上升，表明加入土壤中的汞与土壤中原始汞形态不同，具有不同的迁移方式，且加入土壤中二价汞的迁移性比土壤中的原始汞更强。计算表明，外界加入的汞，将有50-60%长期滞留在土壤中。 4. 根据甲基汞的同位素组成结果，Wet点的新加入的198Hg甲基汞分数要大于其它三点，表明湿润土壤中汞甲基化速率要快于较干燥的土壤中。另外，Wet点的甲基汞分数比以前无人工模拟增加降雨的同位素示踪结果高很多，表明降水量增加会导致汞的甲基化作用在土壤中的形态转化过程中占主导地位，最终导致甲基汞产率的提高。 5. 人工模拟增加降雨试验进行后，地表径流中总汞的浓度没有发生变化，而甲基汞的浓度增大了很多，从0.03ng/L增大到了1ng/L以上，表明降水的增加可以促进土壤中汞的甲基化作用。 6. 地表径流向流域外总汞和甲基汞的输出量的计算显示，受人工模拟增加降雨的影响，流域地表径流量也会增加，最终年地表径流中总汞和甲基汞的输出通量都变大。

Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Guam – a case-study of the perceptions, attitudes, behaviors, and knowledge of a small rural community towards their watershed

This thesis argues that examining the attitudes, perceptions, behaviors, and knowledge of a community towards their specific watershed can reveal their social vulnerability to climate change. Understanding and incorporating these elements of the human dimension in coastal zone management will lead to efficient and effective strategies that safeguard the natural resources for the benefit of the community. By having healthy natural resources, ecological and community resilience to climate change will increase, thus decreasing vulnerability. In the Pacific Ocean, climate and SLR are strongly modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation. SLR is three times the global average in the Western Pacific Ocean (Merrifield and Maltrud 2011; Merrifield 2011). Changes in annual rainfall in the Western North Pacific sub‐region from 1950-2010 show that islands in the east are getting much less than in the past, while the islands in the west are getting slightly more rainfall (Keener et al. 2013). For Guam, a small island owned by the United States and located in the Western Pacific Ocean, these factors mean that SLR is higher than any other place in the world and will most likely see increased precipitation. Knowing this, the social vulnerability may be examined. Thus, a case-study of the community residing in the Manell and Geus watersheds was conducted on the island of Guam. Measuring their perceptions, attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors should bring to light their vulnerability to climate change. In order to accomplish this, a household survey was administered from July through August 2010. Approximately 350 surveys were analysed using SPSS. To supplement this quantitative data, informal interviews were conducted with the elders of the community to glean traditional ecological knowledge about perceived climate change. A GIS analysis was conducted to understand the physical geography of the Manell and Geus watersheds. This information about the human dimension is valuable to CZM managers. It may be incorporated into strategic watershed plans, to better administer the natural resources within the coastal zone. The research conducted in this thesis is the basis of a recent watershed management plan for the Guam Coastal Management Program (see King 2014).

The toxicology of climate change: environmental contaminants in a warming world.

Climate change induced by anthropogenic warming of the earth's atmosphere is a daunting problem. This review examines one of the consequences of climate change that has only recently attracted attention: namely, the effects of climate change on the environmental distribution and toxicity of chemical pollutants. A review was undertaken of the scientific literature (original research articles, reviews, government and intergovernmental reports) focusing on the interactions of toxicants with the environmental parameters, temperature, precipitation, and salinity, as altered by climate change. Three broad classes of chemical toxicants of global significance were the focus: air pollutants, persistent organic pollutants (POPs), including some organochlorine pesticides, and other classes of pesticides. Generally, increases in temperature will enhance the toxicity of contaminants and increase concentrations of tropospheric ozone regionally, but will also likely increase rates of chemical degradation. While further research is needed, climate change coupled with air pollutant exposures may have potentially serious adverse consequences for human health in urban and polluted regions. Climate change producing alterations in: food webs, lipid dynamics, ice and snow melt, and organic carbon cycling could result in increased POP levels in water, soil, and biota. There is also compelling evidence that increasing temperatures could be deleterious to pollutant-exposed wildlife. For example, elevated water temperatures may alter the biotransformation of contaminants to more bioactive metabolites and impair homeostasis. The complex interactions between climate change and pollutants may be particularly problematic for species living at the edge of their physiological tolerance range where acclimation capacity may be limited. In addition to temperature increases, regional precipitation patterns are projected to be altered with climate change. Regions subject to decreases in precipitation may experience enhanced volatilization of POPs and pesticides to the atmosphere. Reduced precipitation will also increase air pollution in urbanized regions resulting in negative health effects, which may be exacerbated by temperature increases. Regions subject to increased precipitation will have lower levels of air pollution, but will likely experience enhanced surface deposition of airborne POPs and increased run-off of pesticides. Moreover, increases in the intensity and frequency of storm events linked to climate change could lead to more severe episodes of chemical contamination of water bodies and surrounding watersheds. Changes in salinity may affect aquatic organisms as an independent stressor as well as by altering the bioavailability and in some instances increasing the toxicity of chemicals. A paramount issue will be to identify species and populations especially vulnerable to climate-pollutant interactions, in the context of the many other physical, chemical, and biological stressors that will be altered with climate change. Moreover, it will be important to predict tipping points that might trigger or accelerate synergistic interactions between climate change and contaminant exposures.

Recent Arctic Climate Change and Its Remote Forcing of Northwest Atlantic Shelf Ecosystems

During recent decades, historically unprecedented changes have been observed in the Arctic as climate warming has increased precipitation, river discharge, and glacial as well as sea-ice melting. Additionally, shifts in the Arctic's atmospheric pressure field have altered surface winds, ocean circulation, and freshwater storage in the Beaufort Gyre. These processes have resulted in variable patterns of freshwater export from the Arctic Ocean, including the emergence of great salinity anomalies propagating throughout the North Atlantic. Here, we link these variable patterns of freshwater export from the Arctic Ocean to the regime shifts observed in Northwest Atlantic shelf ecosystems. Specifically, we hypothesize that the corresponding salinity anomalies, both negative and positive, alter the timing and extent of water-column stratification, thereby impacting the production and seasonal cycles of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and higher-trophic-level consumers. Should this hypothesis hold up to critical evaluation, it has the potential to fundamentally alter our current understanding of the processes forcing the dynamics of Northwest Atlantic shelf ecosystems.

The basic ingredients of the North Atlantic Storm Track. Part II: Sea surface temperatures

The impact of North Atlantic SST patterns on the storm track is investigated using a hierarchy of GCM simulations using idealized (aquaplanet) and “semirealistic” boundary conditions in the atmospheric component (HadAM3) of the third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (HadCM3). This framework enables the mechanisms determining the tropospheric response to North Atlantic SST patterns to be examined, both in isolation and in combination with continental-scale landmasses and orography. In isolation, a “Gulf Stream” SST pattern acts to strengthen the downstream storm track while a “North Atlantic Drift” SST pattern weakens it. These changes are consistent with changes in the extratropical SST gradient and near-surface baroclinicity, and each storm-track response is associated with a consistent change in the tropospheric jet structure. Locally enhanced near-surface horizontal wind convergence is found over the warm side of strengthened SST gradients associated with ascending air and increased precipitation, consistent with previous studies. When the combined SST pattern is introduced into the semirealistic framework (including the “North American” continent and the “Rocky Mountains”), the results suggest that the topographically generated southwest–northeast tilt in the North Atlantic storm track is enhanced. In particular, the Gulf Stream shifts the storm track south in the western Atlantic whereas the strong high-latitude SST gradient in the northeastern Atlantic enhances the storm track there.

Understanding and projecting sea level change

There is intense scientific and public interest in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections of sea level for the twenty-first century and beyond. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) projections, obtained by applying standard methods to the results of the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Experiment, includes estimates of ocean thermal expansion, the melting of glaciers and ice caps (G&ICs), increased melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and increased precipitation over Greenland and Antarctica, partially offsetting other contributions. The AR4 recognized the potential for a rapid dynamic ice sheet response but robust methods for quantifying it were not available. Illustrative scenarios suggested additional sea level rise on the order of 10 to 20 cm or more, giving a wide range in the global averaged projections of about 20 to 80 cm by 2100. Currently, sea level is rising at a rate near the upper end of these projections. Since publication of the AR4 in 2007, biases in historical ocean temperature observations have been identified and significantly reduced, resulting in improved estimates of ocean thermal expansion. Models that include all climate forcings are in good agreement with these improved observations and indicate the importance of stratospheric aerosol loadings from volcanic eruptions. Estimates of the volumes of G&ICs and their contributions to sea level rise have improved. Results from recent (but possibly incomplete) efforts to develop improved ice sheet models should be available for the 2013 IPCC projections. Improved understanding of sea level rise is paving the way for using observations to constrain projections. Understanding of the regional variations in sea level change as a result of changes in ocean properties, wind-stress patterns, and heat and freshwater inputs into the ocean is improving. Recently, estimates of sea level changes resulting from changes in Earth's gravitational field and the solid Earth response to changes in surface loading have been included in regional projections. While potentially valuable, semi-empirical models have important limitations, and their projections should be treated with caution

Aerosol forcing in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations by HadGEM2-ES and the role of ammonium nitrate

The latest Hadley Centre climate model, HadGEM2-ES, includes Earth system components such as interactive chemistry and eight species of tropospheric aerosols. It has been run for the period 1860–2100 in support of the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Anthropogenic aerosol emissions peak between 1980 and 2020, resulting in a present-day all-sky top of the atmosphere aerosol forcing of −1.6 and −1.4 W m−2 with and without ammonium nitrate aerosols, respectively, for the sum of direct and first indirect aerosol forcings. Aerosol forcing becomes significantly weaker in the 21st century, being weaker than −0.5 W m−2 in 2100 without nitrate. However, nitrate aerosols become the dominant species in Europe and Asia and decelerate the decrease in global mean aerosol forcing. Considering nitrate aerosols makes aerosol radiative forcing 2–4 times stronger by 2100 depending on the representative concentration pathway, although this impact is lessened when changes in the oxidation properties of the atmosphere are accounted for. Anthropogenic aerosol residence times increase in the future in spite of increased precipitation, as cloud cover and aerosol-cloud interactions decrease in tropical and midlatitude regions. Deposition of fossil fuel black carbon onto snow and ice surfaces peaks during the 20th century in the Arctic and Europe but keeps increasing in the Himalayas until the middle of the 21st century. Results presented here confirm the importance of aerosols in influencing the Earth's climate, albeit with a reduced impact in the future, and suggest that nitrate aerosols will partially replace sulphate aerosols to become an important anthropogenic species in the remainder of the 21st century.

A 45 kyr palaeoclimate record from the lowland interior of tropical South America

We present a well-dated, high-resolution, ~ 45 kyr lake sediment record reflecting regional temperature and precipitation change in the continental interior of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) tropics of South America. The study site is Laguna La Gaiba (LLG), a large lake (95 km2) hydrologically-linked to the Pantanal, an immense, seasonally-flooded basin and the world's largest tropical wetland (135,000 km2). Lake-level changes at LLG are therefore reflective of regional precipitation. We infer past fluctuations in precipitation at this site through changes in: i) pollen-inferred extent of flood-tolerant forest; ii) relative abundance of terra firme humid tropical forest versus seasonally-dry tropical forest pollen types; and iii) proportions of deep- versus shallow-water diatoms. A probabilistic model, based on plant family and genus climatic optima, was used to generate quantitative estimates of past temperature from the fossil pollen data. Our temperature reconstruction demonstrates rising temperature (by 4 °C) at 19.5 kyr BP, synchronous with the onset of deglacial warming in the central Andes, strengthening the evidence that climatic warming in the SH tropics preceded deglacial warming in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) by at least 5 kyr. We provide unequivocal evidence that the climate at LLG was markedly drier during the last glacial period (45.0–12.2 kyr BP) than during the Holocene, contrasting with SH tropical Andean and Atlantic records that demonstrate a strengthening of the South American summer monsoon during the global Last Glacial Maximum (~ 21 kyr BP), in tune with the ~ 20 kyr precession orbital cycle. Holocene climate conditions occurred as early as 12.8–12.2 kyr BP, when increased precipitation in the Pantanal catchment caused heightened flooding and rising lake levels in LLG. In contrast to this strong geographic variation in LGM precipitation across the continent, expansion of tropical dry forest between 10 and 3 kyr BP at LLG strengthens the body of evidence for widespread early–mid Holocene drought across tropical South America.