Development of power flows around Baltic countries with new grid links

In the Thesis main focus is done on power flow development paths around the Baltic States as well as on market-based requirements for creation of the common Baltic electricity market. Current market regulations between the countries are presented; barriers for creating competitive common Baltic power market and for electricity trading with third countries are clarified; solutions are offered and corresponding road map is developed. Future power development paths around the Baltic States are analysed. For this purpose the 330 kV transmission grid of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania is modelled in a power flow tool. Power flow calculations are carried out for winter and summer peak and off-peak load periods in 2020 with different combinations of interconnections. While carrying out power balance experiments several power flow patterns in the Baltic States are revealed. Conclusions are made about security of supply, grid congestion and transmission capacity availability for different scenarios.

Market coupling in the power markets

The thesis analyses the European Unions’ effort to create an integrated pan-European electricity market based on “market coupling” as the proposed allocation mechanism for interconnector transfer capacity. Thus, the thesis’ main focus is if market coupling leads to a price convergence in interlinked markets and how it affects the behavior of electricity price data. The applied research methods are a qualitative, structured literature review and a quantitative analysis of electricity price data. The quantitative analysis relies on descriptive statistics of absolute price differentials and on a Cointegration analysis according to Engle & Granger (1987)’s two step approach. Main findings are that implicit auction mechanisms such as market coupling are more efficient than explicit auctions. Especially the method of price coupling leads to a price convergence in involved markets, to social welfare gains and reduces market power of producers, as shown on the example of the TLC market coupling. The market coupling initiative between Germany and Denmark, on the other hand, is evaluated as less successful and illustrates the complexity and difficulties of implementing market coupling initiatives. The cointegration analysis shows that the time series were already before the coupling date cointegrated, but the statistical significance increased. The thesis suggests that market coupling leads to a price convergence of involved markets and thus functions as method to create a single, integrated European electricity market.

On state representations of nonlinear implicit systems

This work considers a semi-implicit system A, that is, a pair (S, y), where S is an explicit system described by a state representation (x)over dot(t) = f(t, x(t), u(t)), where x(t) is an element of R(n) and u(t) is an element of R(m), which is subject to a set of algebraic constraints y(t) = h(t, x(t), u(t)) = 0, where y(t) is an element of R(l). An input candidate is a set of functions v = (v(1),.... v(s)), which may depend on time t, on x, and on u and its derivatives up to a Finite order. The problem of finding a (local) proper state representation (z)over dot = g(t, z, v) with input v for the implicit system Delta is studied in this article. The main result shows necessary and sufficient conditions for the solution of this problem, under mild assumptions on the class of admissible state representations of Delta. These solvability conditions rely on an integrability test that is computed from the explicit system S. The approach of this article is the infinite-dimensional differential geometric setting of Fliess, Levine, Martin, and Rouchon (1999) (`A Lie-Backlund Approach to Equivalence and Flatness of Nonlinear Systems`, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 44(5), (922-937)).

Distinct conformational properties determined by implicit and explicit representation of protein-solvent interactions. An analytical and computer simulation study

In the protein folding problem, solvent-mediated forces are commonly represented by intra-chain pairwise contact energy. Although this approximation has proven to be useful in several circumstances, it is limited in some other aspects of the problem. Here we show that it is possible to achieve two models to represent the chain-solvent system. one of them with implicit and other with explicit solvent, such that both reproduce the same thermodynamic results. Firstly, lattice models treated by analytical methods, were used to show that the implicit and explicitly representation of solvent effects can be energetically equivalent only if local solvent properties are time and spatially invariant. Following, applying the same reasoning Used for the lattice models, two inter-consistent Monte Carlo off-lattice models for implicit and explicit solvent are constructed, being that now in the latter the solvent properties are allowed to fluctuate. Then, it is shown that the chain configurational evolution as well as the globule equilibrium conformation are significantly distinct for implicit and explicit solvent systems. Actually, strongly contrasting with the implicit solvent version, the explicit solvent model predicts: (i) a malleable globule, in agreement with the estimated large protein-volume fluctuations; (ii) thermal conformational stability, resembling the conformational hear resistance of globular proteins, in which radii of gyration are practically insensitive to thermal effects over a relatively wide range of temperatures; and (iii) smaller radii of gyration at higher temperatures, indicating that the chain conformational entropy in the unfolded state is significantly smaller than that estimated from random coil configurations. Finally, we comment on the meaning of these results with respect to the understanding of the folding process. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The cost of life expectancy and the implicit social valuation of life

A new method of estimating the economic value of life is proposed. Using cross-country data, an equation is estimated to explain life expectancy as a function of real consumption of goods and services. The associated cost function for life expectancy in terms of the prices of specific goods and services is used to estimate the cost of a reduction in age-specific mortality rates sufficient to save the life of one person. The cost of saving a life in OECD countries is as much as 1000 times that in the poorest countries. Ethical implications are discussed.

Stereotypic explanatory bias: Implicit stereotyping as a predictor of discrimination

Two experiments examined whether a measure of implicit stereotyping based on the tendency to explain Black stereotype-incongruent events more often than Black stereotype-congruent events (Stereotypic Explanatory Bias or SEB) is predictive of behavior toward a partner in an interracial interaction. In Experiment I SEB predicted White males' choice to ask stereotypic questions of a Black female (but not a White male or White female) in an interview. In Experiment 2 the type of explanation (internal or external attribution) made for stereotype-inconsistency was examined. Results showed that White participants who made internal attributions for Black stereotype-incongruent behavior were rated more positively and those who made external attributions were rated more negatively by a Black male confederate. These results point to the potential of implicit stereotyping as an important predictor of behavior in an interracial interaction. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

An auction theoretical approach to fiscal wars

I examine a situation where a firm chooses to locate a new factory in one of several jurisdictions. The value of the factory may differ among jurisdictions and it depends on the private information held by each jurisdiction. Jurisdictions compete for the location of the new factory. This competition may take the form of expenditures already incurred on infrastructure, commitments to spend on infrastructure, tax incentives or even cash payments. The model combines two elements that are usually considered separately; competition is desirable because we want the factory to be located in the jurisdiction that values it the most, but competition in itself is wasteful. I show that the expected total amount paid to the firm under a large family of arrangements is the same. Moreover, I show that the ex-ante optimal mechanism that is, the mechanism that guarantees that the firm chooses the jurisdiction with the highest value for the factory, minimizes the total expected payment to the firm, and balances the budget in an ex-ante sense - can be implemented by running a standard auction and subsidizing participation.

Auction price anomalies: Evidence from wool auctions in Australia

Using detailed Australian wool auction data we test for further evidence of pricing anomalies at sequential auctions. We find that an anomaly frequently exists and order is frequently endogenously determined. Moreover, prices increase through some sales and decrease through others. We examine whether it is possible to explain the variation in the anomaly across sales and conclude that there is no systematic relationship between the direction of the price anomaly and the characteristics of the wool or the auction. We do, however, find evidence that an anomaly, is more likely in longer sales.

Approximate controllability of second-order distributed implicit functional systems

In this paper we study the approximate controllability of control systems with states and controls in Hilbert spaces, and described by a second-order semilinear abstract functional differential equation with infinite delay. Initially we establish a characterization for the approximate controllability of a second-order abstract linear system and, in the last section, we compare the approximate controllability of a semilinear abstract functional system with the approximate controllability of the associated linear system. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Implicit Taylor methods for stiff stochastic differential equations

In this paper we discuss implicit Taylor methods for stiff Ito stochastic differential equations. Based on the relationship between Ito stochastic integrals and backward stochastic integrals, we introduce three implicit Taylor methods: the implicit Euler-Taylor method with strong order 0.5, the implicit Milstein-Taylor method with strong order 1.0 and the implicit Taylor method with strong order 1.5. The mean-square stability properties of the implicit Euler-Taylor and Milstein-Taylor methods are much better than those of the corresponding semi-implicit Euler and Milstein methods and these two implicit methods can be used to solve stochastic differential equations which are stiff in both the deterministic and the stochastic components. Numerical results are reported to show the convergence properties and the stability properties of these three implicit Taylor methods. The stability analysis and numerical results show that the implicit Euler-Taylor and Milstein-Taylor methods are very promising methods for stiff stochastic differential equations.

Can anticipatory skills be learned through implicit video-based perceptual training?

The aim of this experiment was to determine the effectiveness of two video-based perceptual training approaches designed to improve the anticipatory skills of junior tennis players. Players were assigned equally to an explicit learning group, an implicit learning group, a placebo group or a control group. A progressive temporal occlusion paradigm was used to examine, before and after training, the ability of the players to predict the direction of an opponent's service in an in-vivo on-court setting. The players responded either through hitting a return stroke or making a verbal prediction of stroke direction. Results revealed that the implicit learning group, whose training required them to predict serve speed direction while viewing temporally occluded video footage of the return-of-serve scenario, significantly improved their prediction accuracy after the training intervention. However, this training effect dissipated after a 32 day unfilled retention interval. The explicit learning group, who received instructions about the specific aspects of the pre-contact service kinematics that are informative with respect to service direction, did not demonstrate any significant performance improvements after the intervention. This, together with the absence of any significant improvements for the placebo and control groups, demonstrated that the improvement observed for the implicit learning group was not a consequence of either expectancy or familiarity effects.

A four-stage index 2 Diagonally Implicit Runge-Kutta method

High index Differential Algebraic Equations (DAEs) force standard numerical methods to lower order. Implicit Runge-Kutta methods such as RADAU5 handle high index problems but their fully implicit structure creates significant overhead costs for large problems. Singly Diagonally Implicit Runge-Kutta (SDIRK) methods offer lower costs for integration. This paper derives a four-stage, index 2 Explicit Singly Diagonally Implicit Runge-Kutta (ESDIRK) method. By introducing an explicit first stage, the method achieves second order stage calculations. After deriving and solving appropriate order conditions., numerical examples are used to test the proposed method using fixed and variable step size implementations. (C) 2001 IMACS. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.