The response of the sea ice edge to atmospheric and oceanic jet formation

The sea ice edge presents a region of many feedback processes between the atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice (Maslowski et al.). Here the authors focus on the impact of on-ice atmospheric and oceanic flows at the sea ice edge. Mesoscale jet formation due to the Coriolis effect is well understood over sharp changes in surface roughness such as coastlines (Hunt et al.). This sharp change in surface roughness is experienced by the atmosphere and ocean encountering a compacted sea ice edge. This paper presents a study of a dynamic sea ice edge responding to prescribed atmospheric and oceanic jet formation. An idealized analytical model of sea ice drift is developed and compared to a sea ice climate model [the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE)] run on an idealized domain. The response of the CICE model to jet formation is tested at various resolutions. It is found that the formation of atmospheric jets at the sea ice edge increases the wind speed parallel to the sea ice edge and results in the formation of a sea ice drift jet in agreement with an observed sea ice drift jet (Johannessen et al.). The increase in ice drift speed is dependent upon the angle between the ice edge and wind and results in up to a 40% increase in ice transport along the sea ice edge. The possibility of oceanic jet formation and the resultant effect upon the sea ice edge is less conclusive. Observations and climate model data of the polar oceans have been analyzed to show areas of likely atmospheric jet formation, with the Fram Strait being of particular interest.

Impact of a Fram Strait cyclone on ice edge, drift, divergence, and concentration: Possibilities and limits of an observational analysis

This study aims at the determination of a Fram Strait cyclone track and of the cyclone’s impact on ice edge, drift, divergence, and concentration. A 24 h period on 13–14 March 2002 framed by two RADARSAT images is analyzed. Data are included from autonomous ice buoys, a research vessel, Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and QuikSCAT satellite, and the operational European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. During this 24 h period the cyclone moved northward along the western ice edge in the Fram Strait, crossed the northern ice edge, made a left-turn loop with 150 km diameter over the sea ice, and returned to the northern ice edge. The ECMWF analysis places the cyclone track 100 km too far west over the sea ice, a deviation which is too large for representative sea ice simulations. On the east side of the northward moving cyclone, the ice edge was pushed northward by 55 km because of strong winds. On the rear side, the ice edge advanced toward the open water but by a smaller distance because of weaker winds there. The ice drift pattern as calculated from the ice buoys and the two RADARSAT images is cyclonically curved around the center of the cyclone loop. Ice drift divergence shows a spatial pattern with divergence in the loop center and a zone of convergence around. Ice concentration changes as retrieved from SSM/I data follow the divergence pattern such that sea ice concentration increased in areas of divergence and decreased in areas of convergence.

Temporal and spatial variability of surface fluxes over the ice edge zone in the northern Baltic Sea

Three land-fast ice stations (one of them was the Finnish research ice breaker Aranda) and the German research aircraft Falcon were applied to measure the turbulent and radiation fluxes over the ice edge zone in the northern Baltic Sea during the Baltic Air-Sea-Ice Study (BASIS) field experiment from 16 February to 6 March 1998. The temporal and spatial variability of the surface fluxes is discussed. Synoptic weather systems passed the experimental area in a rapid sequence and dominated the conditions (wind speed, airsurface temperature difference, cloud field) for the variability of the turbulent and radiation fluxes. At the ice stations, the largest upward sensible heat fluxes of about 100 Wm�2 were measured during the passage of a cold front when the air cooled faster (�5 K per hour) than the surface. The largest downward flux of about �200 Wm�2 occurred during warm air advection when the air temperature reached +10�C but the surface temperature remained at 0�C. Spatial variability of fluxes was observed from the small scale (scale of ice floes and open water spots) to the mesoscale (width of the ice edge zone). The degree of spatial variability depends on the synoptic situation: during melting conditions downward heat fluxes were the same over ice and open water, whereas during strong cold-air advection upward heat fluxes differed by more than 100 Wm�2. A remarkable amount of grey ice with intermediate surface temperature was observed. The ice in the Baltic Sea cannot be described by one ice type only.

Predictability of the Arctic sea ice edge

Skillful sea ice forecasts from days to years ahead are becoming increasingly important for the operation and planning of human activities in the Arctic. Here we analyze the potential predictability of the Arctic sea ice edge in six climate models. We introduce the integrated ice-edge error (IIEE), a user-relevant verification metric defined as the area where the forecast and the “truth” disagree on the ice concentration being above or below 15%. The IIEE lends itself to decomposition into an absolute extent error, corresponding to the common sea ice extent error, and a misplacement error. We find that the often-neglected misplacement error makes up more than half of the climatological IIEE. In idealized forecast ensembles initialized on 1 July, the IIEE grows faster than the absolute extent error. This means that the Arctic sea ice edge is less predictable than sea ice extent, particularly in September, with implications for the potential skill of end-user relevant forecasts.

Meteorological measurements from 8 dropsondes released during POLAR 4 flight on 1993-03-04 along a track orthogonal to the pack ice edge north west of Svalbard

Different parameterizations of subgrid-scale fluxes are utilized in a nonhydrostatic and anelastic mesoscale model to study their influence on simulated Arctic cold air outbreaks. A local closure, a profile closure and two nonlocal closure schemes are applied, including an improved scheme, which is based on other nonlocal closures. It accounts for continuous subgrid-scale fluxes at the top of the surface layer and a continuous Prandtl number with respect to stratification. In the limit of neutral stratification the improved scheme gives eddy diffusivities similar to other parameterizations, whereas for strong unstable stratifications they become much larger and thus turbulent transports are more efficient. It is shown by comparison of model results with observations that the application of simple nonlocal closure schemes results in a more realistic simulation of a convective boundary layer than that of a local or a profile closure scheme. Improvements are due to the nonlocal formulation of the eddy diffusivities and to the inclusion of heat transport, which is independent of local gradients (countergradient transport).

Antarctic ice shelf melting and its impact on the global sea ice-ocean system

Earth s ice shelves are mainly located in Antarctica. They cover about 44% of the Antarctic coastline and are a salient feature of the continent. Antarctic ice shelf melting (AISM) removes heat from and inputs freshwater into the adjacent Southern Ocean. Although playing an important role in the global climate, AISM is one of the most important components currently absent in the IPCC climate model. In this study, AISM is introduced into a global sea ice-ocean climate model ORCA2-LIM, following the approach of Beckmann and Goosse (2003; BG03) for the thermodynamic interaction between the ice shelf and ocean. This forms the model ORCA2-LIM-ISP (ISP: ice shelf parameterization), in which not only all the major Antarctic ice shelves but also a number of minor ice shelves are included. Using these two models, ORCA2-LIM and ORCA2-LIM-ISP, the impact of addition of AISM and increasing AISM have been investigated. Using the ORCA2-LIM model, numerical experiments are performed to investigate the sensitivity of the polar sea ice cover and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport through Drake Passage (DP) to the variations of three sea ice parameters, namely the thickness of newly formed ice in leads (h0), the compressive strength of ice (P*), and the turning angle in the oceanic boundary layer beneath sea ice (θ). It is found that the magnitudes of h0 and P* have little impact on the seasonal sea ice extent, but lead to large changes in the seasonal sea ice volume. The variation in turning angle has little impact on the sea ice extent and volume in the Arctic but tends to reduce them in the Antarctica when ignored. The magnitude of P* has the least impact on the DP transport, while the other two parameters have much larger influences. Numerical results from ORCA2-LIM and ORCA2-LIM-ISP are analyzed to investigate how the inclusion of AISM affects the representation of the Southern Ocean hydrography. Comparisons with data from the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) show that the addition of AISM significantly improves the simulated hydrography. It not only warms and freshens the originally too cold and too saline bottom water (AABW), but also warms and enriches the salinity of the originally too cold and too fresh warm deep water (WDW). Addition of AISM also improves the simulated stratification. The close agreement between the simulation with AISM and the observations suggests that the applied parameterization is an adequate way to include the effect of AISM in a global sea ice-ocean climate model. We also investigate the models capability to represent the sea ice-ocean system in the North Atlantic Ocean and the Arctic regions. Our study shows both models (with and without AISM) can successfully reproduce the main features of the sea ice-ocean system. However, both tend to overestimate the ice flux through the Nares Strait, produce a lower temperature and salinity in the Hudson Bay, Baffin Bay and Davis Strait, and miss the deep convection in the Labrador Sea. These deficiencies are mainly attributed to the artificial enlargement of the Nares Strait in the model. In this study, the impact of increasing AISM on the global sea ice-ocean system is thoroughly investigated. This provides a first idea regarding changes induced by increasing AISM. It is shown that the impact of increasing AISM is global and most significant in the Southern Ocean. There, increasing AISM tends to freshen the surface water, to warm the intermediate and deep waters, and to freshen and warm the bottom water. In addition, increasing AISM also leads to changes in the mixed layer depths (MLD) in the deep convection sites in the Southern Ocean, deepening in the Antarctic continental shelf while shoaling in the ACC region. Furthermore, increasing AISM influences the current system in the Southern Ocean. It tends to weaken the ACC, and strengthen the Antarctic coastal current (ACoC) as well as the Weddell Gyre and the Ross Gyre. In addition to the ocean system, increasing AISM also has a notable impact on the Antarctic sea ice cover. Due to the cooling of seawater, sea ice concentration and thickness generally become higher. In austral winter, noticeable increases in sea ice concentration mainly take place near the ice edge. In regards with sea ice thickness, large increases are mainly found along the coast of the Weddell Sea, the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas, and the Ross Sea. The overall thickening of sea ice leads to a larger volume of sea ice in Antarctica. In the North Atlantic, increasing AISM leads to remarkable changes in temperature, salinity and density. The water generally becomes warmer, more saline and denser. The most significant warming occurs in the subsurface layer. In contrast, the maximum salinity increase is found at the surface. In addition, the MLD becomes larger along the Greenland-Scotland-Iceland ridge. Global teleconnections due to AISM are studied. The AISM signal is transported with the surface current: the additional freshwater from AISM tends to enhance the northward spreading of the surface water. As a result, more warm and saline water is transported from the tropical region to the North Atlantic Ocean, resulting in warming and salt enrichment there. It would take about 30 40 years to establish a systematic noticeable change in temperature, salinity and MLD in the North Atlantic Ocean according to this study. The changes in hydrography due to increasing AISM are compared with observations. Consistency suggests that increasing AISM is highly likely a major contributor to the recent observed changes in the Southern Ocean. In addition, the AISM might contribute to the salinity contrast between the North Atlantic and North Pacific, which is important for the global thermohaline circulation.

The impact of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean on the temperature, precipitation and surface mass balance of Svalbard

The observed decline in summer sea ice extent since the 1970s is predicted to continue until the Arctic Ocean is seasonally ice free during the 21st Century. This will lead to a much perturbed Arctic climate with large changes in ocean surface energy flux. Svalbard, located on the present day sea ice edge, contains many low lying ice caps and glaciers and is expected to experience rapid warming over the 21st Century. The total sea level rise if all the land ice on Svalbard were to melt completely is 0.02 m. The purpose of this study is to quantify the impact of climate change on Svalbard’s surface mass balance (SMB) and to determine, in particular, what proportion of the projected changes in precipitation and SMB are a result of changes to the Arctic sea ice cover. To investigate this a regional climate model was forced with monthly mean climatologies of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration for the periods 1961–1990 and 2061–2090 under two emission scenarios. In a novel forcing experiment, 20th Century SSTs and 21st Century sea ice were used to force one simulation to investigate the role of sea ice forcing. This experiment results in a 3.5 m water equivalent increase in Svalbard’s SMB compared to the present day. This is because over 50 % of the projected increase in winter precipitation over Svalbard under the A1B emissions scenario is due to an increase in lower atmosphere moisture content associated with evaporation from the ice free ocean. These results indicate that increases in precipitation due to sea ice decline may act to moderate mass loss from Svalbard’s glaciers due to future Arctic warming.

The role of oceans and sea ice in abrupt transitions between multiple climate states

The coupled climate dynamics underlying large, rapid, and potentially irreversible changes in ice cover are studied. A global atmosphere–ocean–sea ice general circulation model with idealized aquaplanet geometry is forced by gradual multi-millennial variations in solar luminosity. The model traverses a hysteresis loop between warm ice-free conditions and cold glacial conditions in response to ±5 W m−2 variations in global, annual-mean insolation. Comparison of several model configurations confirms the importance of polar ocean processes in setting the sensitivity and time scales of the transitions. A “sawtooth” character is found with faster warming and slower cooling, reflecting the opposing effects of surface heating and cooling on upper-ocean buoyancy and, thus, effective heat capacity. The transition from a glacial to warm, equable climate occurs in about 200 years. In contrast to the “freshwater hosing” scenario, transitions are driven by radiative forcing and sea ice feedbacks. The ocean circulation, and notably the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), does not drive the climate change. The MOC (and associated heat transport) collapses poleward of the advancing ice edge, but this is a purely passive response to cooling and ice expansion. The MOC does, however, play a key role in setting the time scales of the transition and contributes to the asymmetry between warming and cooling.

Granular flow in the marginal ice zone

The region of sea ice near the edge of the sea ice pack is known as the marginal ice zone (MIZ), and its dynamics are complicated by ocean wave interaction with the ice cover, strong gradients in the atmosphere and ocean and variations in sea ice rheology. This paper focuses on the role of sea ice rheology in determining the dynamics of the MIZ. Here, sea ice is treated as a granular material with a composite rheology describing collisional ice floe interaction and plastic interaction. The collisional component of sea ice rheology depends upon the granular temperature, a measure of the kinetic energy of flow fluctuations. A simplified model of the MIZ is introduced consisting of the along and across momentum balance of the sea ice and the balance equation of fluctuation kinetic energy. The steady solution of these equations is found to leading order using elementary methods. This reveals a concentrated region of rapid ice flow parallel to the ice edge, which is in accordance with field observations, and previously called the ice jet. Previous explanations of the ice jet relied upon the existence of ocean currents beneath the ice cover. We show that an ice jet results as a natural consequence of the granular nature of sea ice.

Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea-ice predictability in current GCMs

We establish the first inter-model comparison of seasonal to interannual predictability of present-day Arctic climate by performing coordinated sets of idealized ensemble predictions with four state-of-the-art global climate models. For Arctic sea-ice extent and volume, there is potential predictive skill for lead times of up to three years, and potential prediction errors have similar growth rates and magnitudes across the models. Spatial patterns of potential prediction errors differ substantially between the models, but some features are robust. Sea-ice concentration errors are largest in the marginal ice zone, and in winter they are almost zero away from the ice edge. Sea-ice thickness errors are amplified along the coasts of the Arctic Ocean, an effect that is dominated by sea-ice advection. These results give an upper bound on the ability of current global climate models to predict important aspects of Arctic climate.

Antarctic ocean and sea ice response to ozone depletion: a two timescale problem

The response of the Southern Ocean to a repeating seasonal cycle of ozone loss is studied in two coupled climate models and found to comprise both fast and slow processes. The fast response is similar to the inter-annual signature of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on Sea Surface Temperature (SST), on to which the ozone-hole forcing projects in the summer. It comprises enhanced northward Ekman drift inducing negative summertime SST anomalies around Antarctica, earlier sea ice freeze-up the following winter, and northward expansion of the sea ice edge year-round. The enhanced northward Ekman drift, however, results in upwelling of warm waters from below the mixed layer in the region of seasonal sea ice. With sustained bursts of westerly winds induced by ozone-hole depletion, this warming from below eventually dominates over the cooling from anomalous Ekman drift. The resulting slow-timescale response (years to decades) leads to warming of SSTs around Antarctica and ultimately a reduction in sea-ice cover year-round. This two-timescale behavior - rapid cooling followed by slow but persistent warming - is found in the two coupled models analysed, one with an idealized geometry, the other a complex global climate model with realistic geometry. Processes that control the timescale of the transition from cooling to warming, and their uncertainties are described. Finally we discuss the implications of our results for rationalizing previous studies of the effect of the ozone-hole on SST and sea-ice extent. %Interannual variability in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and sea ice covary such that an increase and southward shift in the surface westerlies (a positive phase of the SAM) coincides with a cooling of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) around 70-50$^\circ$S and an expansion of the sea ice cover, as seen in observations and models alike. Yet, in modeling studies, the Southern Ocean warms and sea ice extent decreases in response to sustained, multi-decadal positive SAM-like wind anomalies driven by 20th century ozone depletion. Why does the Southern Ocean appear to have disparate responses to SAM-like variability on interannual and multidecadal timescales? Here it is demonstrated that the response of the Southern Ocean to ozone depletion has a fast and a slow response. The fast response is similar to the interannual variability signature of the SAM. It is dominated by an enhanced northward Ekman drift, which transports heat northward and causes negative SST anomalies in summertime, earlier sea ice freeze-up the following winter, and northward expansion of the sea ice edge year round. The enhanced northward Ekman drift causes a region of Ekman divergence around 70-50$^\circ$S, which results in upwelling of warmer waters from below the mixed layer. With sustained westerly wind enhancement in that latitudinal band, the warming due to the anomalous upwelling of warm waters eventually dominates over the cooling from the anomalous Ekman drift. Hence, the slow response ultimately results in a positive SST anomaly and a reduction in the sea ice cover year round. We demonstrate this behavior in two models: one with an idealized geometry and another, more detailed, global climate model. However, the models disagree on the timescale of transition from the fast (cooling) to the slow (warming) response. Processes that controls this transition and their uncertainties are discussed.

The influence of sea ice dynamics on the climate sensitivity and memory to increased Antarctic sea ice

The study analyzes the sensitivity and memory of the Southern Hemisphere coupled climate system to increased Antarctic sea ice (ASI), taking into account the persistence of the sea ice maxima in the current climate. The mechanisms involved in restoring the climate balance under two sets of experiments, which differ in regard to their sea ice models, are discussed. The experiments are perturbed with extremes of ASI and integrated for 10 yr in a large 30-member ensemble. The results show that an ASI maximum is able to persist for ; 4 yr in the current climate, followed by a negative sea ice phase. The sea ice insulating effect during the positive phase reduces heat fluxes south of 60 8 S, while at the same time these are intensified at the sea ice edge. The increased air stability over the sea ice field strengthens the polar cell while the baroclinicity increases at midlatitudes. The mean sea level pressure is reduced (increased) over high latitudes (midlatitudes), typical of the southern annular mode (SAM) positive phase. The Southern Ocean (SO) becomes colder and fresher as the sea ice melts mainly through sea ice lateral melting, the consequence of which is an increase in the ocean stability by buoyancy and mixing changes. The climate sensitivity is triggered by the sea ice insulating process and the resulting freshwater pulse (fast response), while the climate equilibrium is restored by the heat stored in the SO subsurface layers (long response). It is concluded that the time needed for the ASI anomaly to be dissipated and/or melted is shortened by the sea ice dynamical processes.