Active Sequential Hypothesis Testing with Application to a Visual Search Problem

We consider a visual search problem studied by Sripati and Olson where the objective is to identify an oddball image embedded among multiple distractor images as quickly as possible. We model this visual search task as an active sequential hypothesis testing problem (ASHT problem). Chernoff in 1959 proposed a policy in which the expected delay to decision is asymptotically optimal. The asymptotics is under vanishing error probabilities. We first prove a stronger property on the moments of the delay until a decision, under the same asymptotics. Applying the result to the visual search problem, we then propose a ``neuronal metric'' on the measured neuronal responses that captures the discriminability between images. From empirical study we obtain a remarkable correlation (r = 0.90) between the proposed neuronal metric and speed of discrimination between the images. Although this correlation is lower than with the L-1 metric used by Sripati and Olson, this metric has the advantage of being firmly grounded in formal decision theory.

Novel algorithms for distributed sequential hypothesis testing

This paper considers sequential hypothesis testing in a decentralized framework. We start with two simple decentralized sequential hypothesis testing algorithms. One of which is later proved to be asymptotically Bayes optimal. We also consider composite versions of decentralized sequential hypothesis testing. A novel nonparametric version for decentralized sequential hypothesis testing using universal source coding theory is developed. Finally we design a simple decentralized multihypothesis sequential detection algorithm.

Distributed Hypothesis Testing, Attention Shifts and Transmitter Dynatmics During the Self-Organization of Brain Recognition Codes

BP (89-A-1204); Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (90-0083); National Science Foundation (IRI-90-00530); Air Force Office of Scientific Research (90-0175, 90-0128); Army Research Office (DAAL-03-88-K0088)

Implicit and explicit processes in a hypothesis testing task

We present the results of two experiments investigating the factors that determine responding on the pseudo-diagnosticity task. In Expt I we manipulated people's beliefs about the degree to which an initial piece of evidence supported a focal hypothesis and found decreased pseudo-diagnostic (PD) responding when the evidence offered low support for the focal hypothesis. In Expt 2 we manipulated the instructions given to participants. We found that instructions to select evidence to help decide between the focal and the complementary hypotheses produced fewer PD responses than both instructions to decide whether the focal hypothesis was the case and instructions to decide whether its complement was the case. The results are interpreted within the framework of recent dual process theories of reasoning.

Advancing impact prediction and hypothesis testing in invasion ecology using a comparative functional response approach

Invasion ecology urgently requires predictive methodologies that can forecast the ecological impacts of existing, emerging and potential invasive species. We argue that many ecologically damaging invaders are characterised by their more efficient use of resources. Consequently, comparison of the classical ‘functional response’ (relationship between resource use and availability) between invasive and trophically analogous native species may allow prediction of invader ecological impact. We review the utility of species trait comparisons and the history and context of the use of functional responses in invasion ecology, then present our framework for the use of comparative functional responses. We show that functional response analyses, by describing the resource use of species over a range of resource availabilities, avoids many pitfalls of ‘snapshot’ assessments of resource use. Our framework demonstrates how comparisons of invader and native functional responses, within and between Type II and III functional responses, allow testing of the likely population-level outcomes of invasions for affected species. Furthermore, we describe how recent studies support the predictive capacity of this method; for example, the invasive ‘bloody red shrimp’ Hemimysis anomala shows higher Type II functional responses than native mysids and this corroborates, and could have predicted, actual invader impacts in the field. The comparative functional response method can also be used to examine differences in the impact of two or more invaders, two or more populations of the same invader, and the abiotic (e.g. temperature) and biotic (e.g. parasitism) context-dependencies of invader impacts. Our framework may also address the previous lack of rigour in testing major hypotheses in invasion ecology, such as the ‘enemy release’ and ‘biotic resistance’ hypotheses, as our approach explicitly considers demographic consequences for impacted resources, such as native and invasive prey species. We also identify potential challenges in the application of comparative functional responses in invasion ecology. These include incorporation of numerical responses, multiple predator effects and trait-mediated indirect interactions, replacement versus non-replacement study designs and the inclusion of functional responses in risk assessment frameworks. In future, the generation of sufficient case studies for a meta-analysis could test the overall hypothesis that comparative functional responses can indeed predict invasive species impacts.

Statistical hypothesis testing and common misinterpretations: should we abandon p-value in forensic science applications?

Many people regard the concept of hypothesis testing as fundamental to inferential statistics. Various schools of thought, in particular frequentist and Bayesian, have promoted radically different solutions for taking a decision about the plausibility of competing hypotheses. Comprehensive philosophical comparisons about their advantages and drawbacks are widely available and continue to span over large debates in the literature. More recently, controversial discussion was initiated by an editorial decision of a scientific journal [1] to refuse any paper submitted for publication containing null hypothesis testing procedures. Since the large majority of papers published in forensic journals propose the evaluation of statistical evidence based on the so called p-values, it is of interest to expose the discussion of this journal's decision within the forensic science community. This paper aims to provide forensic science researchers with a primer on the main concepts and their implications for making informed methodological choices.

Hypothesis Testing

PowerPoint slides for Hypothesis Testing. Examples are taken from the Medical Literature

Hypothesis Testing.ppt (10)

PowerPoint Slides for Hypothesis testing Used in Research Skills for Biomedical Science

Keeping the dream of rigorous hypothesis testing alive

This article reviews recent work on hypothesis testing in the American Journal of AGricultural Economics and its predecessor journal, the Journal of Farm Economics

Fire history and the Global Charcoal Database: a new tool for hypothesis testing and data exploration

Version 1 of the Global Charcoal Database is now available for regional fire history reconstructions, data exploration, hypothesis testing, and evaluation of coupled climate–vegetation–fire model simulations. The charcoal database contains over 400 radiocarbon-dated records that document changes in charcoal abundance during the Late Quaternary. The aim of this public database is to stimulate cross-disciplinary research in fire sciences targeted at an increased understanding of the controls and impacts of natural and anthropogenic fire regimes on centennial-to-orbital timescales. We describe here the data standardization techniques for comparing multiple types of sedimentary charcoal records. Version 1 of the Global Charcoal Database has been used to characterize global and regional patterns in fire activity since the last glacial maximum. Recent studies using the charcoal database have explored the relation between climate and fire during periods of rapid climate change, including evidence of fire activity during the Younger Dryas Chronozone, and during the past two millennia.