Hydrologic modeling and uncertainty analysis of an ungauged watershed using mapwindow-swat

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

RWater – A Cyber Enabled Tool For Hydrologic Modeling And Analysis

Existing distributed hydrologic models are complex and computationally demanding for using as a rapid-forecasting policy-decision tool, or even as a class-room educational tool. In addition, platform dependence, specific input/output data structures and non-dynamic data-interaction with pluggable software components inside the existing proprietary frameworks make these models restrictive only to the specialized user groups. RWater is a web-based hydrologic analysis and modeling framework that utilizes the commonly used R software within the HUBzero cyber infrastructure of Purdue University. RWater is designed as an integrated framework for distributed hydrologic simulation, along with subsequent parameter optimization and visualization schemes. RWater provides platform independent web-based interface, flexible data integration capacity, grid-based simulations, and user-extensibility. RWater uses RStudio to simulate hydrologic processes on raster based data obtained through conventional GIS pre-processing. The program integrates Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) algorithm for parameter optimization. Moreover, RWater enables users to produce different descriptive statistics and visualization of the outputs at different temporal resolutions. The applicability of RWater will be demonstrated by application on two watersheds in Indiana for multiple rainfall events.

HYMO : problem-oriented computer language for hydrologic modeling : users manual /

Bibliography: p. 53.

Hydrologic modeling of the Court Creek Watershed /

"IDNR Contract number G99C0230."

A tidal creek water budget: Estimation of groundwater discharge and overland flow using hydrologic modeling in the Southern Everglades

Taylor Slough is one of the natural freshwater contributors to Florida Bay through a network of microtidal creeks crossing the Everglades Mangrove Ecotone Region (EMER). The EMER ecological function is critical since it mediates freshwater and nutrient inputs and controls the water quality in Eastern Florida Bay. Furthermore, this region is vulnerable to changing hydrodynamics and nutrient loadings as a result of upstream freshwater management practices proposed by the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Program (CERP), currently the largest wetland restoration project in the USA. Despite the hydrological importance of Taylor Slough in the water budget of Florida Bay, there are no fine scale (∼1 km2) hydrodynamic models of this system that can be utilized as a tool to evaluate potential changes in water flow, salinity, and water quality. Taylor River is one of the major creeks draining Taylor Slough freshwater into Florida Bay. We performed a water budget analysis for the Taylor River area, based on long-term hydrologic data (1999–2007) and supplemented by hydrodynamic modeling using a MIKE FLOOD (DHI,http://dhigroup.com/) model to evaluate groundwater and overland water discharges. The seasonal hydrologic characteristics are very distinctive (average Taylor River wet vs. dry season outflow was 6 to 1 during 1999–2006) with a pronounced interannual variability of flow. The water budget shows a net dominance of through flow in the tidal mixing zone, while local precipitation and evapotranspiration play only a secondary role, at least in the wet season. During the dry season, the tidal flood reaches the upstream boundary of the study area during approximately 80 days per year on average. The groundwater field measurements indicate a mostly upwards-oriented leakage, which possibly equals the evapotranspiration term. The model results suggest a high importance of groundwater contribution to the water salinity in the EMER. The model performance is satisfactory during the dry season where surface flow in the area is confined to the Taylor River channel. The model also provided guidance on the importance of capturing the overland flow component, which enters the area as sheet flow during the rainy season. Overall, the modeling approach is suitable to reach better understanding of the water budget in the mangrove region. However, more detailed field data is needed to ascertain model predictions by further calibrating overland flow parameters.

FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER HISTORICAL AND PREDICTED LAND USE CHANGE USING CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC MODELING

Current procedures for flood risk estimation assume flood distributions are stationary over time, meaning annual maximum flood (AMF) series are not affected by climatic variation, land use/land cover (LULC) change, or management practices. Thus, changes in LULC and climate are generally not accounted for in policy and design related to flood risk/control, and historical flood events are deemed representative of future flood risk. These assumptions need to be re-evaluated, however, as climate change and anthropogenic activities have been observed to have large impacts on flood risk in many areas. In particular, understanding the effects of LULC change is essential to the study and understanding of global environmental change and the consequent hydrologic responses. The research presented herein provides possible causation for observed nonstationarity in AMF series with respect to changes in LULC, as well as a means to assess the degree to which future LULC change will impact flood risk. Four watersheds in the Midwest, Northeastern, and Central United States were studied to determine flood risk associated with historical and future projected LULC change. Historical single framed aerial images dating back to the mid-1950s were used along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing models (SPRING and ERDAS) to create historical land use maps. The Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Use Change (FORE-SCE) model was applied to generate future LULC maps annually from 2006 to 2100 for the conterminous U.S. based on the four IPCC-SRES future emission scenario conditions. These land use maps were input into previously calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for two case study watersheds. In order to isolate effects of LULC change, the only variable parameter was the Runoff Curve Number associated with the land use layer. All simulations were run with daily climate data from 1978-1999, consistent with the 'base' model which employed the 1992 NLCD to represent 'current' conditions. Output daily maximum flows were converted to instantaneous AMF series and were subsequently modeled using a Log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution to evaluate flood risk. Analysis of the progression of LULC change over the historic period and associated SWAT outputs revealed that AMF magnitudes tend to increase over time in response to increasing degrees of urbanization. This is consistent with positive trends in the AMF series identified in previous studies, although there are difficulties identifying correlations between LULC change and identified change points due to large time gaps in the generated historical LULC maps, mainly caused by unavailability of sufficient quality historic aerial imagery. Similarly, increases in the mean and median AMF magnitude were observed in response to future LULC change projections, with the tails of the distributions remaining reasonably constant. FORE-SCE scenario A2 was found to have the most dramatic impact on AMF series, consistent with more extreme projections of population growth, demands for growing energy sources, agricultural land, and urban expansion, while AMF outputs based on scenario B2 showed little changes for the future as the focus is on environmental conservation and regional solutions to environmental issues.

Hydrologic Simulations of the Maquoketa River Watershed Using SWAT Working Paper 09-WP 49,June 2009

This paper describes the application of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to the Maquoketa River watershed, located in northeast Iowa. The inputs to the model were obtained from the Environmental Protection Agency’s geographic information/database system called Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources (BASINS). Climatic data from six weather stations located in and around the watershed, and measured streamflow data from a U.S. Geological Survey gage station at the watershed outlet were used in the sensitivity analysis of SWAT model parameters as well as its calibration and validation for watershed hydrology and streamflow. A sensitivity analysis was performed using an influence coefficient method to evaluate surface runoff and base flow variations in response to changes in model input hydrologic parameters. The curve number, evaporation compensation factor, and soil available water capacity were found to be the most sensitive parameters among eight selected parameters when applying SWAT to the Maquoketa River watershed. Model calibration, facilitated by the sensitivity analysis, was performed for the period 1988 through 1993, and validation was performed for 1982 through 1987. The model performance was evaluated by well-established statistical methods and was found to explain at least 86% and 69% of the variability in the measured stream flow data for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. This initial hydrologic modeling analysis will facilitate future applications of SWAT to the Maquoketa River watershed for various watershed analysis, including water quality.

City Of Toronto’S Approach On Implementing The New Federal Wastewater Effluent Regulations Using A GIS-Based Hydrologic And Hydraulic Model

Canada releases over 150 billion litres of untreated and undertreated wastewater into the water environment every year1. To clean up urban wastewater, new Federal Wastewater Systems Effluent Regulations (WSER) on establishing national baseline effluent quality standards that are achievable through secondary wastewater treatment were enacted on July 18, 2012. With respect to the wastewater from the combined sewer overflows (CSO), the Regulations require the municipalities to report the annual quantity and frequency of effluent discharges. The City of Toronto currently has about 300 CSO locations within an area of approximately 16,550 hectares. The total sewer length of the CSO area is about 3,450 km and the number of sewer manholes is about 51,100. A system-wide monitoring of all CSO locations has never been undertaken due to the cost and practicality. Instead, the City has relied on estimation methods and modelling approaches in the past to allow funds that would otherwise be used for monitoring to be applied to the reduction of the impacts of the CSOs. To fulfill the WSER requirements, the City is now undertaking a study in which GIS-based hydrologic and hydraulic modelling is the approach. Results show the usefulness of this for 1) determining the flows contributing to the combined sewer system in the local and trunk sewers for dry weather flow, wet weather flow, and snowmelt conditions; 2) assessing hydraulic grade line and surface water depth in all the local and trunk sewers under heavy rain events; 3) analysis of local and trunk sewer capacities for future growth; and 4) reporting of the annual quantity and frequency of CSOs as per the requirements in the new Regulations. This modelling approach has also allowed funds to be applied toward reducing and ultimately eliminating the adverse impacts of CSOs rather than expending resources on unnecessary and costly monitoring.

Integrated assessment of policy interventions for promoting sustainable irrigation in semi-arid environments: A hydro-economic modeling approach

Sustaining irrigated agriculture to meet food production needs while maintaining aquatic ecosystems is at the heart of many policy debates in various parts of the world, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. Researchers and practitioners are increasingly calling for integrated approaches, and policy-makers are progressively supporting the inclusion of ecological and social aspects in water management programs. This paper contributes to this policy debate by providing an integrated economic-hydrologic modeling framework that captures the socio-economic and environmental effects of various policy initiatives and climate variability. This modeling integration includes a risk-based economic optimization model and a hydrologic water management simulation model that have been specified for the Middle Guadiana basin, a vulnerable drought-prone agro-ecological area with highly regulated river systems in southwest Spain. Namely, two key water policy interventions were investigated: the implementation of minimum environmental flows (supported by the European Water Framework Directive, EU WFD), and a reduction in the legal amount of water delivered for irrigation (planned measure included in the new Guadiana River Basin Management Plan, GRBMP, still under discussion). Results indicate that current patterns of excessive water use for irrigation in the basin may put environmental flow demands at risk, jeopardizing the WFD s goal of restoring the ?good ecological status? of water bodies by 2015. Conflicts between environmental and agricultural water uses will be stressed during prolonged dry episodes, and particularly in summer low-flow periods, when there is an important increase of crop irrigation water requirements. Securing minimum stream flows would entail a substantial reduction in irrigation water use for rice cultivation, which might affect the profitability and economic viability of small rice-growing farms located upstream in the river. The new GRBMP could contribute to balance competing water demands in the basin and to increase economic water productivity, but might not be sufficient to ensure the provision of environmental flows as required by the WFD. A thoroughly revision of the basin s water use concession system for irrigation seems to be needed in order to bring the GRBMP in line with the WFD objectives. Furthermore, the study illustrates that social, economic, institutional, and technological factors, in addition to bio-physical conditions, are important issues to be considered for designing and developing water management strategies. The research initiative presented in this paper demonstrates that hydro-economic models can explicitly integrate all these issues, constituting a valuable tool that could assist policy makers for implementing sustainable irrigation policies.

Metodologia para obtenção do hidrograma de escoamento superficial em encostas e canais. Parte II: modelo computacional e análise de sensibilidade

Estimativas de vazão máxima de escoamento superficial são necessárias para o projeto de obras hidráulicas em bacias urbanas e rurais. A dificuldade em aplicar os procedimentos disponíveis para calcular a variação do escoamento superficial com o tempo e de seu valor máximo deve-se à inexatidão dos métodos usados para esse objetivo e à variabilidade nos resultados que podem ser obtidos por profissionais que usem o mesmo procedimento. Dessa forma, a investigação de um método que produza estimativas confiáveis da vazão máxima e do hidrograma de escoamento superficial é de grande interesse. Neste trabalho, desenvolveu-se e avaliou-se a sensibilidade de um software (HIDROGRAMA 2.1) que permite a obtenção do hidrograma de escoamento superficial, da vazão máxima e seu tempo de ocorrência, da altura e da velocidade máximas do escoamento, do volume e da lâmina de escoamento superficial em encosta e em canais. O modelo apresentou grande sensibilidade ao período de retorno, à taxa de infiltração estável e ao comprimento da encosta e do canal.

Use of the swat model for hydro-sedimentologic simulation in a small rural watershed

Mathematical models have great potential to support land use planning, with the goal of improving water and land quality. Before using a model, however, the model must demonstrate that it can correctly simulate the hydrological and erosive processes of a given site. The SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was developed in the United States to evaluate the effects of conservation agriculture on hydrological processes and water quality at the watershed scale. This model was initially proposed for use without calibration, which would eliminate the need for measured hydro-sedimentologic data. In this study, the SWAT model was evaluated in a small rural watershed (1.19 km²) located on the basalt slopes of the state of Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil, where farmers have been using cover crops associated with minimum tillage to control soil erosion. Values simulated by the model were compared with measured hydro-sedimentological data. Results for surface and total runoff on a daily basis were considered unsatisfactory (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient - NSE < 0.5). However simulation results on monthly and annual scales were significantly better. With regard to the erosion process, the simulated sediment yields for all years of the study were unsatisfactory in comparison with the observed values on a daily and monthly basis (NSE values < -6), and overestimated the annual sediment yield by more than 100 %.

Bartlett-Lewis of rectangular pulse modified model: estimate of parameters for simulation of precipitation in sub-hourly duration

The Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse Modified (BLPRM) model simulates the precipitous slide in the hourly and sub-hourly and has six parameters for each of the twelve months of the year. This study aimed to evaluate the behavior of precipitation series in the duration of 15 min, obtained by simulation using the model BLPRM in situations: (a) where the parameters are estimated from a combination of statistics, creating five different sets; (b) suitability of the model to generate rain. To adjust the parameters were used rain gauge records of Pelotas/RS/Brazil, which statistics were estimated - mean, variance, covariance, autocorrelation coefficient of lag 1, the proportion of dry days in the period considered. The results showed that the parameters related to the time of onset of precipitation (λ) and intensities (μx) were the most stable and the most unstable were ν parameter, related to rain duration. The BLPRM model adequately represented the mean, variance, and proportion of the dry period of the series of precipitation lasting 15 min and, the time dependence of the heights of rain, represented autocorrelation coefficient of the first retardation was statistically less simulated series suitability for the duration of 15 min.

Effect Of Different Hydrological Model Structures On The Assimilation Of Distributed Uncertain Observations

The reliable evaluation of the flood forecasting is a crucial problem for assessing flood risk and consequent damages. Different hydrological models (distributed, semi-distributed or lumped) have been proposed in order to deal with this issue. The choice of the proper model structure has been investigated by many authors and it is one of the main sources of uncertainty for a correct evaluation of the outflow hydrograph. In addition, the recent increasing of data availability makes possible to update hydrological models as response of real-time observations. For these reasons, the aim of this work it is to evaluate the effect of different structure of a semi-distributed hydrological model in the assimilation of distributed uncertain discharge observations. The study was applied to the Bacchiglione catchment, located in Italy. The first methodological step was to divide the basin in different sub-basins according to topographic characteristics. Secondly, two different structures of the semi-distributed hydrological model were implemented in order to estimate the outflow hydrograph. Then, synthetic observations of uncertain value of discharge were generated, as a function of the observed and simulated value of flow at the basin outlet, and assimilated in the semi-distributed models using a Kalman Filter. Finally, different spatial patterns of sensors location were assumed to update the model state as response of the uncertain discharge observations. The results of this work pointed out that, overall, the assimilation of uncertain observations can improve the hydrologic model performance. In particular, it was found that the model structure is an important factor, of difficult characterization, since can induce different forecasts in terms of outflow discharge. This study is partly supported by the FP7 EU Project WeSenseIt.