Factors influencing hurricane evacuation among Hispanic population

The recent hurricanes of Katrina, Rita, and Dolly have brought to light the precarious situation populations place themselves in when they are unprepared to face a storm, or do not follow official orders to evacuate when a destructive hurricane is poised to hit the area. Three counties in southern Texas lie within 60 miles of the Gulf of Mexico, and along the Mexican border. Determining the barriers to hurricane evacuation in this distinct and highly impoverished area of the United States would help aid local, state, and federal agencies to respond more effectively to persons living here.^ The aim of this study was to examine intention to comply with mandatory hurricane evacuation orders among persons living in three counties in South Texas by gender, income, education, acculturation and county of residence. A questionnaire was administered to 3,088 households across the three counties using a two-stage cluster sampling strategy, stratified by all three counties. The door-to-door survey was a 73-item instrument that included demographics, reasons for and against evacuation, and preparedness for a hurricane. Weighted data were used for the analyses.^ Chi-square tests were run to determine whether differences between observed and expected frequencies were statistically significant. A logistic regression model was developed based on that univariate analysis. Results from the logistic regression estimated odds ratios and their 95 percent confidence intervals for the independent variables.^ Logistic regression results indicate that females were less likely than men to follow an evacuation order. Having a higher education meant more likelihood of evacuating. Those respondents with a higher affiliation with Spanish than English were more likely to follow the evacuation orders. Hidalgo County residents were less likely to evacuate than Cameron or Willacy Counties' residents. Local officials need to implement communication efforts specifically tailored for females, residents with less of an affiliation with Spanish, and Hidalgo County residents to ensure their successful evacuation prior to a strong hurricane's landfall.^

Predicting hurricane evacuation decisions: When, how many, and how far

Traffic from major hurricane evacuations is known to cause severe gridlocks on evacuation routes. Better prediction of the expected amount of evacuation traffic is needed to improve the decision-making process for the required evacuation routes and possible deployment of special traffic operations, such as contraflow. The objective of this dissertation is to develop prediction models to predict the number of daily trips and the evacuation distance during a hurricane evacuation. ^ Two data sets from the surveys of the evacuees from Hurricanes Katrina and Ivan were used in the models' development. The data sets included detailed information on the evacuees, including their evacuation days, evacuation distance, distance to the hurricane location, and their associated socioeconomic characteristics, including gender, age, race, household size, rental status, income, and education level. ^ Three prediction models were developed. The evacuation trip and rate models were developed using logistic regression. Together, they were used to predict the number of daily trips generated before hurricane landfall. These daily predictions allowed for more detailed planning over the traditional models, which predicted the total number of trips generated from an entire evacuation. A third model developed attempted to predict the evacuation distance using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), which was able to account for the spatial variations found among the different evacuation areas, in terms of impacts from the model predictors. All three models were developed using the survey data set from Hurricane Katrina and then evaluated using the survey data set from Hurricane Ivan. ^ All of the models developed provided logical results. The logistic models showed that larger households with people under age six were more likely to evacuate than smaller households. The GWR-based evacuation distance model showed that the household with children under age six, income, and proximity of household to hurricane path, all had an impact on the evacuation distances. While the models were found to provide logical results, it was recognized that they were calibrated and evaluated with relatively limited survey data. The models can be refined with additional data from future hurricane surveys, including additional variables, such as the time of day of the evacuation. ^

Endogenous Risk Perception, Geospatial Characteristics and Temporal Variation in Hurricane Evacuation Behavior

The main focus of this thesis was to gain a better understanding about the dynamics of risk perception and its influence on people’s evacuation behavior. Another major focus was to improve our knowledge regarding geo-spatial and temporal variations of risk perception and hurricane evacuation behavior. A longitudinal dataset of more than eight hundred households were collected following two major hurricane events, Ivan and Katrina. The longitudinal survey data was geocoded and a geo-spatial database was integrated to it. The geospatial database was composed of distance, elevation and hazard parameters with respect to the respondent’s household location. A set of Bivariate Probit (BP) model suggests that geospatial variables have had significant influences in explaining hurricane risk perception and evacuation behavior during both hurricanes. The findings also indicated that people made their evacuation decision in coherence with their risk perception. In addition, people updated their hurricane evacuation decision in a subsequent similar event.

Application of a Bivariate Probit Model to Investigate the Intended Evacuation from Hurricane

With evidence of increasing hurricane risks in Georgia Coastal Area (GCA) and Virginia in the U.S. Southeast and elsewhere, understanding intended evacuation behavior is becoming more and more important for community planners. My research investigates intended evacuation behavior due to hurricane risks, a behavioral survey of the six counties in GCA under the direction of two social scientists with extensive experience in survey research related to citizen and household response to emergencies and disasters. Respondents gave answers whether they would evacuate under both voluntary and mandatory evacuation orders. Bivariate probit models are used to investigate the subjective belief structure of whether or not the respondents are concerned about the hurricane, and the intended probability of evacuating as a function of risk perception, and a lot of demographic and socioeconomic variables (e.g., gender, military, age, length of residence, owning vehicles).

Le potentiel des technologies de l’information et des communications pour le renforcement de la résilience organisationnelle lors des opérations d’évacuation : é́tude de cas de la ville de New York

Lorsque les ouragans entrent en contact avec l'environnement bâti et naturel, les autorités publiques n'ont parfois d'autre choix que de déclarer l'évacuation obligatoire de la population située en zone à risque. En raison de l'imprévisibilité du déroulement d'une catastrophe et des comportements humains, les opérations d'évacuation sont confrontées à une incertitude significative. Les expériences passées ont montré que les technologies de l'information et des communications (TIC) ont le potentiel d'améliorer l'état de l'art en gestion des évacuations. Malgré cette reconnaissance, les recherches empiriques sur ce sujet sont à ce jour limitées. La présente étude de cas de la ville de New York explore comment l'intégration des TIC dans la planification opérationnelle des organisations ayant des responsabilités en matière de transport peut améliorer leurs réponses aux événements et influencer le succès global du système de gestion des catastrophes. L'analyse est basée sur les informations recueillies au moyen d'entretiens semi-dirigés avec les organisations de transport et de gestion des catastrophes de la ville de New York ainsi qu’avec des experts du milieu universitaire. Les résultats mettent en lumière le potentiel des TIC pour la prise de décision en interne. Même s’il est largement reconnu que les TIC sont des moyens efficaces d'échanger de l'information en interne et entre les organisations, ces usages sont confrontés à certaines contraintes technologique, organisationnelle, structurelle et systémique. Cette observation a permis d'identifier les contraintes vécues dans les pratiques usuelles de gestion des systèmes urbains.

Essays in environmental economic valuation and decision making in the presence of an environmental disaster

The first essay developed a respondent model of Bayesian updating for a double-bound dichotomous choice (DB-DC) contingent valuation methodology. I demonstrated by way of data simulations that current DB-DC identifications of true willingness-to-pay (WTP) may often fail given this respondent Bayesian updating context. Further simulations demonstrated that a simple extension of current DB-DC identifications derived explicitly from the Bayesian updating behavioral model can correct for much of the WTP bias. Additional results provided caution to viewing respondents as acting strategically toward the second bid. Finally, an empirical application confirmed the simulation outcomes. The second essay applied a hedonic property value model to a unique water quality (WQ) dataset for a year-round, urban, and coastal housing market in South Florida, and found evidence that various WQ measures affect waterfront housing prices in this setting. However, the results indicated that this relationship is not consistent across any of the six particular WQ variables used, and is furthermore dependent upon the specific descriptive statistic employed to represent the WQ measure in the empirical analysis. These results continue to underscore the need to better understand both the WQ measure and its statistical form homebuyers use in making their purchase decision. The third essay addressed a limitation to existing hurricane evacuation modeling aspects by developing a dynamic model of hurricane evacuation behavior. A household's evacuation decision was framed as an optimal stopping problem where every potential evacuation time period prior to the actual hurricane landfall, the household's optimal choice is to either evacuate, or to wait one more time period for a revised hurricane forecast. A hypothetical two-period model of evacuation and a realistic multi-period model of evacuation that incorporates actual forecast and evacuation cost data for my designated Gulf of Mexico region were developed for the dynamic analysis. Results from the multi-period model were calibrated with existing evacuation timing data from a number of hurricanes. Given the calibrated dynamic framework, a number of policy questions that plausibly affect the timing of household evacuations were analyzed, and a deeper understanding of existing empirical outcomes in regard to the timing of the evacuation decision was achieved.

Essays in Environmental Economic Valuation and Decision Making in the Presence of an Environmental Disaster

The first essay developed a respondent model of Bayesian updating for a double-bound dichotomous choice (DB-DC) contingent valuation methodology. I demonstrated by way of data simulations that current DB-DC identifications of true willingness-to-pay (WTP) may often fail given this respondent Bayesian updating context. Further simulations demonstrated that a simple extension of current DB-DC identifications derived explicitly from the Bayesian updating behavioral model can correct for much of the WTP bias. Additional results provided caution to viewing respondents as acting strategically toward the second bid. Finally, an empirical application confirmed the simulation outcomes. The second essay applied a hedonic property value model to a unique water quality (WQ) dataset for a year-round, urban, and coastal housing market in South Florida, and found evidence that various WQ measures affect waterfront housing prices in this setting. However, the results indicated that this relationship is not consistent across any of the six particular WQ variables used, and is furthermore dependent upon the specific descriptive statistic employed to represent the WQ measure in the empirical analysis. These results continue to underscore the need to better understand both the WQ measure and its statistical form homebuyers use in making their purchase decision. The third essay addressed a limitation to existing hurricane evacuation modeling aspects by developing a dynamic model of hurricane evacuation behavior. A household’s evacuation decision was framed as an optimal stopping problem where every potential evacuation time period prior to the actual hurricane landfall, the household’s optimal choice is to either evacuate, or to wait one more time period for a revised hurricane forecast. A hypothetical two-period model of evacuation and a realistic multi-period model of evacuation that incorporates actual forecast and evacuation cost data for my designated Gulf of Mexico region were developed for the dynamic analysis. Results from the multi-period model were calibrated with existing evacuation timing data from a number of hurricanes. Given the calibrated dynamic framework, a number of policy questions that plausibly affect the timing of household evacuations were analyzed, and a deeper understanding of existing empirical outcomes in regard to the timing of the evacuation decision was achieved.

Assessment of the damage caused by flood rains and landslides in association with hurricane Michelle, october 2001: implications for economic, social and environmental development

Preface This study was prepared for the Government of Jamaica following the significant physical damage and economic losses that the country sustained as a result of flood rains associated with the development of Hurricane Michelle. The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) submitted a request for assistance in undertaking a social, environmental and economic impact assessment to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) on 14 November 2001. ECLAC responded with haste and modified its work plan to accommodate the request. A request for training in the use of the ECLAC Methodology to be delivered to personnel in Jamaica was deferred until the first quarter of 2002, as it was impossible to mount such an initiative at such short notice. This appraisal considers the consequences of the three instances of heavy rainfall that brought on the severe flooding and loss of property and livelihoods. The study was prepared by three members of the ECLAC Natural Disaster Damage Assessment Team over a period of one week in order to comply with the request that it be presented to the Prime Minister on 3 December 2001. The team has endeavoured to complete a workload that would take two weeks with a team of 15 members working assiduously with data already prepared in preliminary form by the national emergency stakeholders. There is need for training in disaster assessment as evidenced by the data collected by the Jamaican officials engaged in the exercise. Their efforts in the future will be more focused and productive after they have received training in the use of the ECLAC Methodology. This study undertakes a sectoral analysis leading to an overall assessment of the damage. It appraises the macroeconomic and social effects and proposes some guidelines for action including mitigating actions subsequent to the devastation caused by the weather system. The team is grateful for the efforts of the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM), the associated government ministries and agencies, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN), the Planning Institute of Jamaica and the Inter American Development Bank (IDB) for assistance rendered to the team. Indeed, it is the recommendation of the team that STATIN is poised to play a pivotal role in any disaster damage assessment and should be taken on board in that regard. The direct and indirect damages have been assessed in accordance with the methodology developed by ECLAC (1). The results presented are based on the mission's estimates. The study incorporates the information made available to the team and evidence collected in interviews and visits to affected locations. It is estimated that the magnitude of the losses exceeds the country's capacity to address reparations and mitigation without serious dislocation of its development trajectory. The government may wish to approach the international community for assistance in this regard. This appraisal is therefore designed to provide the government and the international community with guidelines for setting national and regional priorities in rehabilitation and reconstruction or resettlement programmes. A purely economic conception of the problem would be limited. A more integrated approach would have a human face and consider the alleviation of human suffering in the affected areas while attending to the economic and fiscal fallout of the disaster. Questions of improved physical planning, watershed management, early warning, emergency response and structural preparedness for evacuation and sheltering the vulnerable population are seen as important considerations for the post disaster phase. Special attention and priority should be placed on including sustainability and increased governance criteria in making social and productive investments, and on allocating resources to the reinforcing and retrofitting of vulnerable infrastructure, basic lifelines and services as part of the reconstruction and rehabilitation strategy. The Jamaican society and government face the opportunity of undertaking action with the benefit of revised paradigms, embarking on institutional, legal and structural reforms to reduce economic, social and environmental vulnerability. The history of flood devastation in the very areas of Portland and St. Mary shows a recurrence of flooding. Accounts of flooding from the earliest recorded accounts pertaining to 1837 are available. Recurrences in 1937, 1940, 1943 and 2001 indicate an ever-present probability of recurrence of similar events. The Government may wish to consider the probable consequences of a part of its population living in flood plains and address its position vis-à­¶is land use and the probability of yet another recurrence of flood rains. (1) ECLAC/IDNDR, Manual for estimating the Socio-Economic Effects of Natural Disasters, May,1999.

Evaluating Dynamic Signage for Emergency Evacuation using an Immersive Video Environment

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

High-field (3T) magnetic resonance defecography with functional assessment of the evacuation phase : a pictorial essay : P10

Purpose: Dynamic high-field magnetic resonance (MR) defecography including the evacuation phase is a promising tool for the assessment of functional pelvic disorders, nowadays seen with increasing frequency in elderly women in particular. Learning objectives: 1. To describe the adequate technique of dynamic high-field MRI (3T) in assessing pelvic floor disorders. 2. To provide an overview of the most common pathologies occurring during the evacuation phase, especially in comparison with results of conventional defecography. Methods and materials: After description of the ideal technical parameters of MR defecography performed in supine position after gel rectal filling with a 3 Tesla unit and including the evacuation phase we stress the importance of using a standardized evaluation system for the exact assessment of pelvic floor pathophysiology. Results: The typical pelvic floor disorders occurring before and/or during the evacuation phase, such as sphincter insufficiency, vaginal vault and/or uterine prolapse, cystourethrocele, peritoneo-/ entero-/ sigmoïdocele or rectal prolapse, are demonstrated. The difference between the terms "pelvic floor descent" and "pelvic floor relaxation" are pictorially outlined. MR results are compared with these of conventional defecography. Conclusion: Exact knowledge about the correct technique including the evacuation phase and the use of a standardized evaluation system in assessing pelvic floor disorders by dynamic high-field MRI is mandatory for accurate and reproducible diagnosis.

Divers traitez de paix conclus et signez a Munster et a Osnabrug en Westphalie le 24. octobre 1648. Comme aussi ceux qui furent faits a Nuremberg en execution des premiers, touchant la staisfaction des milices, l'evacuation des places, et le licenciement des troupes en l'année 1650. Avec le bref de nôtre St. Pere le Pape... et les prerogatives d'Aix la Chapelle... . Avec le bref de nôtre St. Pere le Pape, contenant sa protestation contre ces traitez, et les prerogatives d'Aix la Chapelle. Le tout servant de preuves à l'histoire de l'Empire.

[Traité. 1648-10-24. Munster. Autriche-Empire-Francefrançais)]

Agent Based Evacuation Simulation Using Leader-Follower Model

Agent based simulation is a widely developing area in artificial intelligence.The simulation studies are extensively used in different areas of disaster management. This work deals with the study of an agent based evacuation simulation which is being done to handle the various evacuation behaviors.Various emergent behaviors of agents are addressed here. Dynamic grouping behaviors of agents are studied. Collision detection and obstacle avoidances are also incorporated in this approach.Evacuation is studied with single exits and multiple exits and efficiency is measured in terms of evacuation rate, collision rate etc.Net logo is the tool used which helps in the efficient modeling of scenarios in evacuation

Orographic Enhancement of Precipitation inside Hurricane Dean

On 17 August 2007, the center of Hurricane Dean passed within 92 km of the mountainous island of Dominica in the West Indies. Despite its distance from the island and its category 1–2 state, Dean brought significant total precipitation exceeding 500 mm and caused numerous landslides. Four rain gauges, a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) image, and 5-min radar scans from Guadeloupe and Martinique are used to determine the storm’s structure and the mountains’ effect on precipitation. The encounter is best described in three phases: (i) an east-northeast dry flow with three isolated drifting cells; (ii) a brief passage of the narrow outer rainband; and (iii) an extended period with south-southeast airflow in a nearly stationary spiral rainband. In this final phase, from 1100 to 2400 UTC, heavy rainfall from the stationary rainband was doubled by orographic enhancement. This enhancement pushed the sloping soils past the landslide threshold. The enhancement was caused by a modified seeder–feeder accretion mechanism that created a “dipole” pattern of precipitation, including a dry zone over the ocean in the lee. In contrast to normal trade-wind conditions, no terrain triggering of convection was identified in the hurricane environment.