Analysis of ten years historical weather data in Australia

Typical reference year (TRY) weather data is often used to represent the long term weather pattern for building simulation and design. Through the analysis of ten year historical hourly weather data for seven Australian major capital cities using the frequencies procedure of descriptive statistics analysis (by SPSS software), this paper investigates: • the closeness of the typical reference year (TRY) weather data in representing the long term weather pattern; • the variations and common features that may exist between relatively hot and cold years. It is found that for the given set of input data, in comparison with the other weather elements, the discrepancy between TRY and multiple years is much smaller for the dry bulb temperature, relative humidity and global solar irradiance. The overall distribution patterns of key weather elements are also generally similar between the hot and cold years, but with some shift and/or small distortion. There is little common tendency of change between the hot and the cold years for different weather variables at different study locations.

A sensitivity study for water availability in the Northern Caucasus based on climate projections

A strong climatic warming is currently observed in the Caucasus mountains, which has profound impact on runoff generation in the glaciated Glavny (Main) Range and on water availability in the whole region. To assess future changes in the hydrological cycle, the output of a general circulation model was downscaled statistically. For the 21st century, a further warming by 4–7 °C and a slight precipitation increase is predicted. Measured and simulated meteorological variables were used as input into a runoff model to transfer climate signals into a hydrological response under both present and future climate forcings. Runoff scenarios for the mid and the end of the 21st century were generated for different steps of deglaciation. The results show a satisfactory model performance for periods with observed runoff. Future water availability strongly depends on the velocity of glacier retreat. In a first phase, a surplus of water will increase flood risk in hot years and after continuing glacier reduction, annual runoff will again approximate current values. However, the seasonal distribution of streamflow will change towards runoff increase in spring and lower flows in summer.

Knowledge, attitudes and practices to reduce exposure among residents living near Danang dioxin hot spot : 2.5 years after a preventative intervention

Da Nang Airbase in Viet Nam served as a bulk storage and supply facility for Agent Orange and other herbicides during Operation Ranch Hand 1961-1971[1]. Studies have shown that environmental and biological samples taken around the airbase site have elevated levels of dioxin [1-3]. Residents living in the vicinity of the airbase are at risk of exposure to dioxin in soil, water and mud and particularly through the consumption of local contaminated food. In 2009, a pre-intervention cross sectional survey was undertaken. This survey examined the knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) of householders living near Da Nang Airbase, relevent to reducing dioxin exposure through contaminated food. The results showed that despite living near a severe dioxin hot spot, the residents had very limited knowledge of both exposure risk and measures to reduce exposure to dioxin[4]. In response, the Vietnam Public Health Association (VPHA) and Da Nang Public Health Association implemented a risk reduction program at four residential wards in the vicinities of the Da Nang Airbase in 2010. A post intervention KAP survey was under taken in 2011, and the results showed that knowledge of the existence of dioxin in food, dioxin exposure pathways, potential high risk foods, and preventive measures was significantly enhanced. This new study monitored KAP 2.5 years after the intervention through a 2013 survey of food handlers from 400 households that were randomly selected from the four intervention wards. The results show that most of the positive outcomes remained stable or had increased; some KAP indicators decreased compared to those in the post-intervention survey, but were still significantly higher than the pre-intervention levels. In 2014, these findings will be incorporated with qualitative assessments and the results of laboratory analysis of dioxin concentrations in foods in Da Nang and Bien Hoa dioxin hot spots to comprehensively assess the sustained effects of the intervention.

Dioxin risk reduction programme at the most severe dioxin hot spot in Vietnam: Residual knowledge, attitude and practices five years post intervention

Bien Hoa Airbase was one of the bulk storage and supply facilities for defoliants during the Vietnam War. Environmental and biological samples taken around the airbase have elevated levels of dioxin. In 2007, a pre-intervention knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) survey of local residents living in Trung Dung and Tan Phong wards was undertaken regarding appropriate strategies to reduce dioxin exposure. A risk reduction programme was implemented in 2008 and post-intervention KAP surveys were undertaken in 2009 and 2013 to evaluate the longer term impacts. Quantitative assessment was undertaken via a KAP survey in 2013 among 600 local residents randomly selected from the two intervention wards and one control ward (Buu Long). Eight in-depth interviews and two focus group discussions were also undertaken for qualitative assessment. Most programme activities had ceased and dioxin risk communication activities had not been integrated into local routine health education programmes; however, main results generally remained and were better than that in Buu Long. In total, 48.2% of households undertook measures to prevent exposure, higher than those in pre- and post-intervention surveys (25.8% and 39.7%) and the control ward (7.7%). Migration and the sensitive nature of dioxin issues were the main challenges for the programme's sustainability

New criteria for evaluating methods of identifying hot spots

Identification of hot spots, also known as the sites with promise, black spots, accident-prone locations, or priority investigation locations, is an important and routine activity for improving the overall safety of roadway networks. Extensive literature focuses on methods for hot spot identification (HSID). A subset of this considerable literature is dedicated to conducting performance assessments of various HSID methods. A central issue in comparing HSID methods is the development and selection of quantitative and qualitative performance measures or criteria. The authors contend that currently employed HSID assessment criteria—namely false positives and false negatives—are necessary but not sufficient, and additional criteria are needed to exploit the ordinal nature of site ranking data. With the intent to equip road safety professionals and researchers with more useful tools to compare the performances of various HSID methods and to improve the level of HSID assessments, this paper proposes four quantitative HSID evaluation tests that are, to the authors’ knowledge, new and unique. These tests evaluate different aspects of HSID method performance, including reliability of results, ranking consistency, and false identification consistency and reliability. It is intended that road safety professionals apply these different evaluation tests in addition to existing tests to compare the performances of various HSID methods, and then select the most appropriate HSID method to screen road networks to identify sites that require further analysis. This work demonstrates four new criteria using 3 years of Arizona road section accident data and four commonly applied HSID methods [accident frequency ranking, accident rate ranking, accident reduction potential, and empirical Bayes (EB)]. The EB HSID method reveals itself as the superior method in most of the evaluation tests. In contrast, identifying hot spots using accident rate rankings performs the least well among the tests. The accident frequency and accident reduction potential methods perform similarly, with slight differences explained. The authors believe that the four new evaluation tests offer insight into HSID performance heretofore unavailable to analysts and researchers.

Hot Summers and Heart Failure: Seasonal Variations in Morbidity and Mortality in Australian Heart Failure Patients (1994-2005)

Background There are minimal reports of seasonal variations in chronic heart failure (CHF)-related morbidity and mortality beyond the northern hemisphere. Aims and methods We examined potential seasonal variations with respect to morbidity and all-cause mortality over more than a decade in a cohort of 2961 patients with CHF from a tertiary referral hospital in South Australia subject to mild winters and hot summers. Results Seasonal variation across all event-types was observed. CHF-related morbidity peaked in winter (July) and was lowest in summer (February): 70 (95% CI: 65 to 76) vs. 33 (95% CI: 30 to 37) admissions/1000 at risk (p<0.005). All-cause admissions (113 (95% CI: 107 to 120) vs. 73 (95% CI 68 to 79) admissions/1000 at risk, p<0.001) and concurrent respiratory disease (21% vs. 12%,p<0.001) were consistently higher in winter. 2010 patients died, mortality was highest in August relative to February: 23 (95% CI: 20 to 27) vs. 12 (95% CI: 10 to 15) deaths per 1000 at risk, p<0.001. Those aged 75 years or older were most at risk of seasonal variations in morbidity and mortality. Conclusion Seasonal variations in CHF-related morbidity and mortality occur in the hot climate of South Australia, suggesting that relative (rather than absolute) changes in temperature drive this global phenomenon.

A randomised controlled trial of a theory-based intervention to improve sun protective behaviour in adolescents ('you can still be HOT in the shade') : study protocol

Background: Most skin cancers are preventable by encouraging consistent use of sun protective behaviour. In Australia, adolescents have high levels of knowledge and awareness of the risks of skin cancer but exhibit significantly lower sun protection behaviours than adults. There is limited research aimed at understanding why people do or do not engage in sun protective behaviour, and an associated absence of theory-based interventions to improve sun safe behaviour. This paper presents the study protocol for a school-based intervention which aims to improve the sun safe behaviour of adolescents. Methods/design: Approximately 400 adolescents (aged 12-17 years) will be recruited through Queensland, Australia public and private schools and randomized to the intervention (n = 200) or 'wait-list' control group (n = 200). The intervention focuses on encouraging supportive sun protective attitudes and beliefs, fostering perceptions of normative support for sun protection behaviour, and increasing perceptions of control/self-efficacy over using sun protection. It will be delivered during three × one hour sessions over a three week period from a trained facilitator during class time. Data will be collected one week pre-intervention (Time 1), and at one week (Time 2) and four weeks (Time 3) post-intervention. Primary outcomes are intentions to sun protect and sun protection behaviour. Secondary outcomes include attitudes toward performing sun protective behaviours (i.e., attitudes), perceptions of normative support to sun protect (i.e., subjective norms, group norms, and image norms), and perceived control over performing sun protective behaviours (i.e., perceived behavioural control). Discussion: The study will provide valuable information about the effectiveness of the intervention in improving the sun protective behaviour of adolescents.

The impact of temperature on years of life lost in Brisbane, Australia

Temperature is an important determinant of health. A better knowledge of how temperature affects population health is important not only to the scientific community, but also to the decision-makers who develop and implement early warning systems and intervention strategies to mitigate the health effects of extreme temperatures. The temperature–health relationship is also of growing interest as climate change is projected to shift the overall temperature distribution higher. Previous studies have examined the relative risks of temperature-related mortality, but the absolute measure of years of life lost is also useful as it combines the number of deaths with life expectancy. Here we use years of life lost to provide a novel measure of the impact of temperature on mortality in Brisbane, Australia. We also project the future temperature-related years of life lost attributable to climate change. We show that the association between temperature and years of life lost is U-shaped, with increased years of life lost for cold and hot temperatures. The temperature-related years of life lost will worsen greatly if future climate change goes beyond a 2 �C increase and without any adaptation to higher temperatures. This study highlights that public health adaptation to climate change is necessary.

Effects of extreme temperatures on years of life lost for cardiovascular deaths : a time series study in Brisbane, Australia

Background: Extreme temperatures are associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths. Previous studies have investigated the relative CVD mortality risk of temperature, but this risk is heavily influenced by deaths in frail elderly persons. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures we estimated their effects on years of life lost due to CVD. Methods and Results: The data were daily observations on weather and CVD mortality for Brisbane, Australia between 1996 and 2004. We estimated the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to CVD, after adjusting for trend, season, day of the week, and humidity. To examine the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature, a distributed lag non-linear model was used. The model’s residuals were examined to investigate if there were any added effects due to cold spells and heat waves. The exposure-response curve between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C. The curve had a sharper rise at extremes of heat than of cold. The effect of cold peaked two days after exposure, whereas the greatest effect of heat occurred on the day of exposure. There were significantly added effects of heat waves on years of life lost. Conclusions: Increased years of life lost due to CVD are associated with both cold and hot temperatures. Research on specific interventions is needed to reduce temperature-related years of life lost from CVD deaths.

Reconstructing the history of maize streak virus strain a dispersal to reveal diversification hot spots and its origin in southern Africa

Maize streak virus strain A (MSV-A), the causal agent of maize streak disease, is today one of the most serious biotic threats to African food security. Determining where MSV-A originated and how it spread transcontinentally could yield valuable insights into its historical emergence as a crop pathogen. Similarly, determining where the major extant MSV-A lineages arose could identify geographical hot spots of MSV evolution. Here, we use model-based phylogeographic analyses of 353 fully sequenced MSV-A isolates to reconstruct a plausible history of MSV-A movements over the past 150 years. We show that since the probable emergence of MSV-A in southern Africa around 1863, the virus spread transcontinentally at an average rate of 32.5 km/year (95% highest probability density interval, 15.6 to 51.6 km/year). Using distinctive patterns of nucleotide variation caused by 20 unique intra-MSV-A recombination events, we tentatively classified the MSV-A isolates into 24 easily discernible lineages. Despite many of these lineages displaying distinct geographical distributions, it is apparent that almost all have emerged within the past 4 decades from either southern or east-central Africa. Collectively, our results suggest that regular analysis of MSV-A genomes within these diversification hot spots could be used to monitor the emergence of future MSV-A lineages that could affect maize cultivation in Africa. © 2011, American Society for Microbiology.

‘Hot chicks’, ‘better parties’ or academic stuff : perceptions of a regional university campus using Repertory Grid Analysis and Importance-performance Analysis

In the increasingly competitive Australian tertiary education market, a consumer orientation is essential. This is particularly so for small regional campuses competing with larger universities in the state capitals. Campus management need to carefully monitor both the perceptions of prospective students within the catchment area, and the (dis)satisfaction levels of current students. This study reports the results of an exploratory investigation into the perceptions held of a regional campus, using two techniques that have arguably been underutilised in the education marketing literature. Repertory Grid Analysis, a technique developed almost fifty years ago, was used to identify attributes deemed salient to year 12 high school students at the time they were applying for university places. Importance-performance analysis (IPA), developed three decades ago, was then used to identify attributes that were determinant for a new cohort of first year undergraduate students. The paper concludes that group applications of Repertory Grid offer education market researchers a useful means for identifying attributes used by high school students to differentiate universities, and that IPA is a useful technique for guiding promotional decision making. In this case, the two techniques provided a quick, economical and effective snapshot of market perceptions, which can be used as a foundation for the development of an ongoing market research programme.

The effects of hot and cold temperatures on emergency hospital admissions in Brisbane, Australia

As Earth's climate is rapidly changing, the impact of ambient temperature on health outcomes has attracted increasing attention in the recent time. Considerable number of excess deaths has been reported because of exposure to ambient hot and cold temperatures. However, relatively little research has been conducted on the relation between temperature and morbidity. The aim of this study was to characterize the relationship between both hot and cold temperatures and emergency hospital admissions in Brisbane, Australia, and to examine whether the relation varied by age and socioeconomic factors. It aimed to explore lag structures of temperature–morbidity association for respiratory causes, and to estimate the magnitude of emergency hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases attributable to hot and cold temperatures for the large contribution of both diseases to the total emergency hospital admissions. A time series study design was applied using routinely collected data of daily emergency hospital admissions, weather and air pollution variables in Brisbane during 1996–2005. Poisson regression model with a distributed lag non-linear structure was adopted to assess the impact of temperature on emergency hospital admissions after adjustment for confounding factors. Both hot and cold effects were found, with higher risk of hot temperatures than that of cold temperatures. Increases in mean temperature above 24.2oC were associated with increased morbidity, especially for the elderly ≥ 75 years old with the largest effect. The magnitude of the risk estimates of hot temperature varied by age and socioeconomic factors. High population density, low household income, and unemployment appeared to modify the temperature–morbidity relation. There were different lag structures for hot and cold temperatures, with the acute hot effect within 3 days after hot exposure and about 2-week lagged cold effect on respiratory diseases. A strong harvesting effect after 3 days was evident for respiratory diseases. People suffering from cardiovascular diseases were found to be more vulnerable to hot temperatures than cold temperatures. However, more patients admitted for cardiovascular diseases were attributable to cold temperatures in Brisbane compared with hot temperatures. This study contributes to the knowledge base about the association between temperature and morbidity. It is vitally important in the context of ongoing climate change. The findings of this study may provide useful information for the development and implementation of public health policy and strategic initiatives designed to reduce and prevent the burden of disease due to the impact of climate change.

Hot spot detection and spatio-temporal dispersion of dengue fever in Hanoi, Vietnam

INTRODUCTION Dengue fever (DF) in Vietnam remains a serious emerging arboviral disease, which generates significant concerns among international health authorities. Incidence rates of DF have increased significantly during the last few years in many provinces and cities, especially Hanoi. The purpose of this study was to detect DF hot spots and identify the disease dynamics dispersion of DF over the period between 2004 and 2009 in Hanoi, Vietnam. METHODS Daily data on DF cases and population data for each postcode area of Hanoi between January 1998 and December 2009 were obtained from the Hanoi Center for Preventive Health and the General Statistic Office of Vietnam. Moran's I statistic was used to assess the spatial autocorrelation of reported DF. Spatial scan statistics and logistic regression were used to identify space-time clusters and dispersion of DF. RESULTS The study revealed a clear trend of geographic expansion of DF transmission in Hanoi through the study periods (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.02-1.34). The spatial scan statistics showed that 6/14 (42.9%) districts in Hanoi had significant cluster patterns, which lasted 29 days and were limited to a radius of 1,000 m. The study also demonstrated that most DF cases occurred between June and November, during which the rainfall and temperatures are highest. CONCLUSIONS There is evidence for the existence of statistically significant clusters of DF in Hanoi, and that the geographical distribution of DF has expanded over recent years. This finding provides a foundation for further investigation into the social and environmental factors responsible for changing disease patterns, and provides data to inform program planning for DF control.

Causal factors of hot air ballooning incidents : identification, frequency, and potential impact

Background: Hot air ballooning incidents are relatively rare, however, when they do occur they are likely to result in a fatality or serious injury. Human error is commonly attributed as the cause of hot air ballooning incidents; however, error in itself is not an explanation for safety failures. This research aims to identify, and establish the relative importance of factors contributing towards hot air ballooning incidents. Methods: Twenty-two Australian Ballooning Federation (ABF) incident reports were thematically coded using a bottom up approach to identify causal factors. Subsequently, 69 balloonists (mean 19.51 years’ experience) participated in a survey to identify additional causal factors and rate (out of seven) the perceived frequency and potential impact to ballooning operations of each of the previously identified causal factors. Perceived associated risk was calculated by multiplying mean perceived frequency and impact ratings. Results: Incident report coding identified 54 causal factors within nine higher level areas: Attributes, Crew resource management, Equipment, Errors, Instructors, Organisational, Physical Environment, Regulatory body and Violations. Overall, ‘weather’, ‘inexperience’ and ‘poor/inappropriate decisions’ were rated as having greatest perceived associated risk. Discussion: Although errors were nominated as a prominent cause of hot air ballooning incidents, physical environment and personal attributes are also particularly important for safe hot air ballooning operations. In identifying a range of causal factors the areas of weakness surrounding ballooning operations have been defined; it is hoped that targeted safety and training strategies can now be put into place removing these contributing factors and reducing the chance of pilot error.

Environmental health risk assessment of dioxin in foods and the sustainability of public health interventions at severe dioxin hot spots in Vietnam

This study assessed environmental health risk from dioxin in foods and sustainability of risk reduction programs at two heavily contaminated former military sites in Vietnam. The study involved 1000 household surveys, analysis of food samples and in-depth discussions with residents and officials. The findings indicate that more than 40 years after the war, local residents still experience high exposure to dioxin if they consume local high risk foods. Public health intervention programs were rated moderately to well sustained. Internal migration, and lack of clear, official guidance and sensitivity regarding dioxin issues were the main challenges for sustainability of prevention programs.