Uncovering the Lagrangian from observations of trajectories

We approach the problem of automatically modeling a mechanical system from data about its dynamics, using a method motivated by variational integrators. We write the discrete Lagrangian as a quadratic polynomial with varying coefficients, and then use the discrete Euler-Lagrange equations to numerically solve for the values of these coefficients near the data points. This method correctly modeled the Lagrangian of a simple harmonic oscillator and a simple pendulum, even with significant measurement noise added to the trajectories.

Thermodynamics of trajectories of a quantum harmonic oscillator coupled to N baths

We undertake a thorough analysis of the thermodynamics of the trajectories followed by a quantum harmonic oscillator coupled to $N$ dissipative baths by using a new approach to large-deviation theory inspired by phase-space quantum optics. As an illustrative example, we study the archetypal case of a harmonic oscillator coupled to two thermal baths, allowing for a comparison with the analogous classical result. In the low-temperature limit, we find a significant quantum suppression in the rate of work exchanged between the system and each bath. We further show how the presented method is capable of giving analytical results even for the case of a driven harmonic oscillator. Based on that result, we analyse the laser cooling of the motion of a trapped ion or optomechanical system, illustrating how the emission statistics can be controllably altered by the driving force.

Thermodynamics of trajectories and local fluctuation theorems for harmonic quantum networks

We present a general method to undertake a thorough analysis of the thermodynamics of the quantum jump trajectories followed by an arbitrary quantum harmonic network undergoing linear and bilinear dynamics. The approach is based on the phase-space representation of the state of a harmonic network. The large deviation function associated with this system encodes the full counting statistics of exchange and also allows one to deduce for fluctuation theorems obeyed by the dynamics. We illustrate the method showing the validity of a local fluctuation theorem about the exchange of excitations between a restricted part of the environment (i.e., a local bath) and a harmonic network coupled with different schemes.

UNIVERSAL COVERING OF DRIFTLESS CONTROL SYSTEMS

Let M be a finite-dimensional manifold and Sigma be a driftless control system on M of full rank. We prove that for a given initial state x epsilon M, the covering space Gamma(Sigma, x) for a monotonic homotopy of trajectories of Sigma which is recently constructed in [1] coincides with the simply connected universal covering manifold of M and that the terminal projection epsilon(x) : Gamma(Sigma, x) -> M given by epsilon(x) ([alpha]) = alpha(1) is a covering mapping.

DoSTra: Discovering common behaviors of objects using the duration of staying on each location of trajectories

Since semantic trajectories can discover more semantic meanings of a user's interests without geographic restrictions, research on semantic trajectories has attracted a lot of attentions in recent years. Most existing work discover the similar behavior of moving objects through analysis of their semantic trajectory pattern, that is, sequences of locations. However, this kind of trajectories without considering the duration of staying on a location limits wild applications. For example, Tom and Anne have a common pattern of Home→Restaurant → Company → Restaurant, but they are not similar, since Tom works at Restaurant, sends snack to someone at Company and return to Restaurant while Anne has breakfast at Restaurant, works at Company and has lunch at Restaurant. If we consider duration of staying on each location we can easily to differentiate their behaviors. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for discovering common behaviors by considering the duration of staying on each location of trajectories (DoSTra). Our approach can be used to detect the group that has similar lifestyle, habit or behavior patterns and predict the future locations of moving objects. We evaluate the experiment based on synthetic dataset, which demonstrates the high effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method.

Structure of trajectories of complex-matrix eigenvalues in the Hermitian-non-Hermitian transition

The statistical properties of trajectories of eigenvalues of Gaussian complex matrices whose Hermitian condition is progressively broken are investigated. It is shown how the ordering on the real axis of the real eigenvalues is reflected in the structure of the trajectories and also in the final distribution of the eigenvalues in the complex plane.

Analysis and optimization of trajectories for Ballistic Missiles Interception

Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles are capable of placing a nuclear warhead at more than 5,000 km away from its launching base. With the lethal power of a nuclear warhead a whole city could be wiped out by a single weapon causing millions of deaths. This means that the threat posed to any country from a single ICBM captured by a terrorist group or launched by a 'rogue' state is huge. This threat is increasing as more countries are achieving nuclear and advanced launcher capabilities. In order to suppress or at least reduce this threat the United States created the National Missile Defense System which involved, among other systems, the development of long-range interceptors whose aim is to destroy incoming ballistic missiles in their midcourse phase. The Ballistic Missile Defense is a high-profile topic that has been the focus of political controversy lately when the U.S. decided to expand the Ballistic Missile system to Europe, with the opposition of Russia. However the technical characteristics of this system are mostly unknown by the general public. The Interception of an ICBM using a long range Interceptor Missile as intended within the Ground-Based Missile Defense System by the American National Missile Defense (NMD) implies a series of problems of incredible complexity: - The incoming missile has to be detected almost immediately after launch. - The incoming missile has to be tracked along its trajectory with a great accuracy. - The Interceptor Missile has to implement a fast and accurate guidance algorithm in order to reach the incoming missile as soon as possible. - The Kinetic Kill Vehicle deployed by the interceptor boost vehicle has to be able to detect the reentry vehicle once it has been deployed by ICBM, when it offers a very low infrared signature, in order to perform a final rendezvous manoeuvre. - The Kinetic Kill Vehicle has to be able to discriminate the reentry vehicle from the surrounding debris and decoys. - The Kinetic Kill Vehicle has to be able to implement an accurate guidance algorithm in order to perform a kinetic interception (direct collision) of the reentry vehicle, at relative speeds of more than 10 km/s. All these problems are being dealt simultaneously by the Ground-Based Missile Defense System that is developing very complex and expensive sensors, communications and control centers and long-range interceptors (Ground-Based Interceptor Missile) including a Kinetic Kill Vehicle. Among all the technical challenges involved in this interception scenario, this thesis focuses on the algorithms required for the guidance of the Interceptor Missile and the Kinetic Kill Vehicle in order to perform the direct collision with the ICBM. The involved guidance algorithms are deeply analysed in this thesis in part III where conventional guidance strategies are reviewed and optimal guidance algorithms are developed for this interception problem. The generation of a realistic simulation of the interception scenario between an ICBM and a Ground Based Interceptor designed to destroy it was considered as necessary in order to be able to compare different guidance strategies with meaningful results. As a consequence, a highly representative simulator for an ICBM and a Kill Vehicle has been implemented, as detailed in part II, and the generation of these simulators has also become one of the purposes of this thesis. In summary, the main purposes of this thesis are: - To develop a highly representative simulator of an interception scenario between an ICBM and a Kill Vehicle launched from a Ground Based Interceptor. -To analyse the main existing guidance algorithms both for the ascent phase and the terminal phase of the missiles. Novel conclusions of these analyses are obtained. - To develop original optimal guidance algorithms for the interception problem. - To compare the results obtained using the different guidance strategies, assess the behaviour of the optimal guidance algorithms, and analyse the feasibility of the Ballistic Missile Defense system in terms of guidance (part IV). As a secondary objective, a general overview of the state of the art in terms of ballistic missiles and anti-ballistic missile defence is provided (part I).

Spatio-temporal clustering of probabilistic region trajectories

We propose a novel model for the spatio-temporal clustering of trajectories based on motion, which applies to challenging street-view video sequences of pedestrians captured by a mobile camera. A key contribution of our work is the introduction of novel probabilistic region trajectories, motivated by the non-repeatability of segmentation of frames in a video sequence. Hierarchical image segments are obtained by using a state-of-the-art hierarchical segmentation algorithm, and connected from adjacent frames in a directed acyclic graph. The region trajectories and measures of confidence are extracted from this graph using a dynamic programming-based optimisation. Our second main contribution is a Bayesian framework with a twofold goal: to learn the optimal, in a maximum likelihood sense, Random Forests classifier of motion patterns based on video features, and construct a unique graph from region trajectories of different frames, lengths and hierarchical levels. Finally, we demonstrate the use of Isomap for effective spatio-temporal clustering of the region trajectories of pedestrians. We support our claims with experimental results on new and existing challenging video sequences. © 2011 IEEE.

Extraction and Clustering of Motion Trajectories in Video

A system is described that tracks moving objects in a video dataset so as to extract a representation of the objects' 3D trajectories. The system then finds hierarchical clusters of similar trajectories in the video dataset. Objects' motion trajectories are extracted via an EKF formulation that provides each object's 3D trajectory up to a constant factor. To increase accuracy when occlusions occur, multiple tracking hypotheses are followed. For trajectory-based clustering and retrieval, a modified version of edit distance, called longest common subsequence (LCSS) is employed. Similarities are computed between projections of trajectories on coordinate axes. Trajectories are grouped based, using an agglomerative clustering algorithm. To check the validity of the approach, experiments using real data were performed.

Lagrangian validation of numerical drifter trajectories using drifting buoys: Application to the Agulhas system

The skill of numerical Lagrangian drifter trajectories in three numerical models is assessed by comparing these numerically obtained paths to the trajectories of drifting buoys in the real ocean. The skill assessment is performed using the two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistical test. To demonstrate the assessment procedure, it is applied to three different models of the Agulhas region. The test can either be performed using crossing positions of one-dimensional sections in order to test model performance in specific locations, or using the total two-dimensional data set of trajectories. The test yields four quantities: a binary decision of model skill, a confidence level which can be used as a measure of goodness-of-fit of the model, a test statistic which can be used to determine the sensitivity of the confidence level, and cumulative distribution functions that aid in the qualitative analysis. The ordering of models by their confidence levels is the same as the ordering based on the qualitative analysis, which suggests that the method is suited for model validation. Only one of the three models, a 1/10° two-way nested regional ocean model, might have skill in the Agulhas region. The other two models, a 1/2° global model and a 1/8° assimilative model, might have skill only on some sections in the region

Strategies for plane change of Earth orbits using lunar gravity and derived trajectories of family G

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Group-Based Symptom Trajectories in Indicated Prevention of Adolescent Depression

Background: Adolescent depression prevention research has focused on mean intervention outcomes, but has not considered heterogeneity in symptom course. Here, we empirically identify subgroups with distinct trajectories of depressive symptom change among adolescents enrolled in two indicated depression preven- tion trials and examine how cognitive-behavioral (CB) interventions and baseline predictors relate to trajectory membership. Methods: Six hundred thirty-one participants were assigned to one of three conditions: CB group intervention, CB bibliotherapy, and brochure control. We used group-based trajectory modeling to identify trajectories of depressive symptoms from pretest to 2-year follow-up. We examined associations between class membership and conditions using chi- square tests and baseline predictors using multinomial regressions. Results: We identified four trajectories in the full sample. Qualitatively similar trajectories were found in each condition separately. Two trajectories of positive symptom course (low-declining, high-declining) had declining symptoms and were dis- tinguished by baseline symptom severity. Two trajectories of negative course (high-persistent, resurging), respectively, showed no decline in symptoms or de- cline followed by symptom reappearance. Participants in the brochure control condition were significantly more likely to populate the high-persistent trajectory relative to either CB condition and were significantly less likely to populate the low-declining trajectory relative to CB group. Several baseline factors predicted trajectory classes, but gender was the most informative prognostic factor, with males having increased odds of membership in a high-persistent trajectory rel- ative to other trajectories. Conclusions: Findings suggest that CB preventive interventions do not alter the nature of trajectories, but reduce the risk that adolescents follow a trajectory of chronically elevated symptoms.

Group-Based Symptom Trajectories in Indicated Prevention of Adolescent Depression

Background: Adolescent depression prevention research has focused on mean intervention outcomes, but has not considered heterogeneity in symptom course. Here, we empirically identify subgroups with distinct trajectories of depressive symptom change among adolescents enrolled in two indicated depression preven- tion trials and examine how cognitive-behavioral (CB) interventions and baseline predictors relate to trajectory membership. Methods: Six hundred thirty-one participants were assigned to one of three conditions: CB group intervention, CB bibliotherapy, and brochure control. We used group-based trajectory modeling to identify trajectories of depressive symptoms from pretest to 2-year follow-up. We examined associations between class membership and conditions using chi- square tests and baseline predictors using multinomial regressions. Results: We identified four trajectories in the full sample. Qualitatively similar trajectories were found in each condition separately. Two trajectories of positive symptom course (low-declining, high-declining) had declining symptoms and were dis- tinguished by baseline symptom severity. Two trajectories of negative course (high-persistent, resurging), respectively, showed no decline in symptoms or de- cline followed by symptom reappearance. Participants in the brochure control condition were significantly more likely to populate the high-persistent trajectory relative to either CB condition and were significantly less likely to populate the low-declining trajectory relative to CB group. Several baseline factors predicted trajectory classes, but gender was the most informative prognostic factor, with males having increased odds of membership in a high-persistent trajectory rel- ative to other trajectories. Conclusions: Findings suggest that CB preventive interventions do not alter the nature of trajectories, but reduce the risk that adolescents follow a trajectory of chronically elevated symptoms.

Estimating crop area using seasonal time series of enhanced vegetation index from MODIS satellite imagery

Cereal grain is one of the main export commodities of Australian agriculture. Over the past decade, crop yield forecasts for wheat and sorghum have shown appreciable utility for industry planning at shire, state, and national scales. There is now an increasing drive from industry for more accurate and cost-effective crop production forecasts. In order to generate production estimates, accurate crop area estimates are needed by the end of the cropping season. Multivariate methods for analysing remotely sensed Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) from 16-day Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery within the cropping period (i.e. April-November) were investigated to estimate crop area for wheat, barley, chickpea, and total winter cropped area for a case study region in NE Australia. Each pixel classification method was trained on ground truth data collected from the study region. Three approaches to pixel classification were examined: (i) cluster analysis of trajectories of EVI values from consecutive multi-date imagery during the crop growth period; (ii) harmonic analysis of the time series (HANTS) of the EVI values; and (iii) principal component analysis (PCA) of the time series of EVI values. Images classified using these three approaches were compared with each other, and with a classification based on the single MODIS image taken at peak EVI. Imagery for the 2003 and 2004 seasons was used to assess the ability of the methods to determine wheat, barley, chickpea, and total cropped area estimates. The accuracy at pixel scale was determined by the percent correct classification metric by contrasting all pixel scale samples with independent pixel observations. At a shire level, aggregated total crop area estimates were compared with surveyed estimates. All multi-temporal methods showed significant overall capability to estimate total winter crop area. There was high accuracy at pixel scale (>98% correct classification) for identifying overall winter cropping. However, discrimination among crops was less accurate. Although the use of single-date EVI data produced high accuracy for estimates of wheat area at shire scale, the result contradicted the poor pixel-scale accuracy associated with this approach, due to fortuitous compensating errors. Further studies are needed to extrapolate the multi-temporal approaches to other geographical areas and to improve the lead time for deriving cropped-area estimates before harvest.