Herding behaviour in the Australian loan market and its impact on bank loan quality

We examine the effect of herding behaviour on the credit quality of bank loans in Australia. We find that bank herding varies with different types of loans. It tends to be more prevalent in owner-occupied housing loans and credit cards than other types of loans. During the global financial crisis period, herding in owner-occupied housing loans was most pronounced due to the flight-to-quality phenomenon in the housing sector. Furthermore, we find that the big four banks tend to herd more than smaller and regional banks. Bank herding behaviour is countercyclical, as it is negatively related to real GDP growth and the cost of funding but is positively related to market risk. Regulatory capital requirements may also encourage herding as banks are required to hold less risk-weighted capital for residential loans. Most importantly, bank herding is related to higher impaired assets and therefore lower loan quality. Our findings may have implications for policymakers and bank regulators.

House price dynamics and bank herding: European empirical evidence

This paper investigates the behavior of residential property and examines the linkages between house price dynamics and bank herding behavior. The analysis presents evidence that irrational behaviour may have played a significant role in several countries, including; United Kingdom, Spain, Denmark, Sweden and Ireland. In addition, we also provide evidence indicative of herding behaviour in the European residential mortgage loan market. Granger Causality tests indicate that non-fundamentally justified prices dynamics contributed to herding by lenders and that this behaviour was a response by the banks as a group to common information on residential property assets. In contrast, in Germany, Portugal and Austria, residential property prices were largely explained by fundamentals. Furthermore, these countries show no evidence of either irrational price bubbles or herd behaviour in the mortgage market. Granger Causality tests indicate that both variables are independent.

Assessing the accuracy and dispersion of real estate investment forecasts

Existing empirical evidence has frequently observed that professional forecasters are conservative and display herding behaviour. Whilst a large number of papers have considered equities as well as macroeconomic series, few have considered the accuracy of forecasts in alternative asset classes such as real estate. We consider the accuracy of forecasts for the UK commercial real estate market over the period 1999-2011. The results illustrate that forecasters display a tendency to under-estimate growth rates during strong market conditions and over-estimate when the market is performing poorly. This conservatism not only results in smoothed estimates but also implies that forecasters display herding behaviour. There is also a marked difference in the relative accuracy of capital and total returns versus rental figures. Whilst rental growth forecasts are relatively accurate, considerable inaccuracy is observed with respect to capital value and total returns.

"We sold a million units": the role of advertising past-sales

In a market where past-sales embed information about consumers’ tastes (quality), we analyze the seller’s incentives to invest in a costly advertising campaign to report them under two informational assumptions. In the …rst scenario, a pooling equilibrium with past-sales advertising is derived. Information revelation only occurs when the seller bene…ciates from the herding behaviour that the advertising campaign induces on the part of consumers. In the second informational regime, a separating equilibrium with past-sales advertising is computed. Information revelation always happens, either through prices or through costly advertisements.

Multivariate FIAPARCH modelling of financial markets with dynamic correlations in times of crisis

This paper applies the vector AR-DCC-FIAPARCH model to eight national stock market indices' daily returns from 1988 to 2010, taking into account the structural breaks of each time series linked to the Asian and the recent Global financial crisis. We find significant cross effects, as well as long range volatility dependence, asymmetric volatility response to positive and negative shocks, and the power of returns that best fits the volatility pattern. One of the main findings of the model analysis is the higher dynamic correlations of the stock markets after a crisis event, which means increased contagion effects between the markets. The fact that during the crisis the conditional correlations remain on a high level indicates a continuous herding behaviour during these periods of increased market volatility. Finally, during the recent Global financial crisis the correlations remain on a much higher level than during the Asian financial crisis.

Human-directed gazing behaviour in puppies and adult dogs, Canis lupus familiaris

Recent evidence indicates that dogs' sociocognitive abilities and behaviour in a test situation are shaped by both genetic factors and life experiences. We used the 'unsolvable task' paradigm to investigate the effect of breed and age/experience on the use of human-directed gazing behaviour. Following a genetic classification based on recent genome analyses, dogs were allocated to three breed groups, namely Primitive, Hunting/Herding and Molossoid. Furthermore, we tested dogs at 2 months, 4.5. months and as adults. The test consisted of three solvable trials in which dogs could obtain food by manipulating a plastic container followed by an unsolvable trial in which obtaining the food became impossible. The dogs' behaviour towards the apparatus and the people present was analysed. At 2 months no breed group differences emerged and although human-directed gazing behaviour was observed in approximately half of the pups, it occurred for brief periods, suggesting that the aptitude to use human-directed gazing as a request for obtaining help probably develops at a later date when dogs have had more experience with human communication. Breed group differences, however, did emerge strongly in adult dogs and, although less pronounced, also in 4.5-month-old subjects, with dogs in the Hunting/Herding group showing significantly more human-directed gazing behaviour than dogs in the other two breed groups. These results suggest that, although the domestication process may have shaped the dog's human-directed communicative abilities, the later selection for specific types of work might also have had a significant impact on their emergence. © 2011 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.