Extinction risk in cloud forest fragments under climate change and habitat loss

Aim: To quantify the consequences of major threats to biodiversity, such as climate and land-use change, it is important to use explicit measures of species persistence, such as extinction risk. The extinction risk of metapopulations can be approximated through simple models, providing a regional snapshot of the extinction probability of a species. We evaluated the extinction risk of three species under different climate change scenarios in three different regions of the Mexican cloud forest, a highly fragmented habitat that is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Location: Cloud forests in Mexico. Methods: Using Maxent, we estimated the potential distribution of cloud forest for three different time horizons (2030, 2050 and 2080) and their overlap with protected areas. Then, we calculated the extinction risk of three contrasting vertebrate species for two scenarios: (1) climate change only (all suitable areas of cloud forest through time) and (2) climate and land-use change (only suitable areas within a currently protected area), using an explicit patch-occupancy approximation model and calculating the joint probability of all populations becoming extinct when the number of remaining patches was less than five. Results: Our results show that the extent of environmentally suitable areas for cloud forest in Mexico will sharply decline in the next 70 years. We discovered that if all habitat outside protected areas is transformed, then only species with small area requirements are likely to persist. With habitat loss through climate change only, high dispersal rates are sufficient for persistence, but this requires protection of all remaining cloud forest areas. Main conclusions: Even if high dispersal rates mitigate the extinction risk of species due to climate change, the synergistic impacts of changing climate and land use further threaten the persistence of species with higher area requirements. Our approach for assessing the impacts of threats on biodiversity is particularly useful when there is little time or data for detailed population viability analyses. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effect of fragmentation, habitat loss and within-patch habitat characteristics on ant assemblages in semi-arid woodlands of eastern Australia.

The reliability of ants as bioindicators of ecosystem condition is dependent on the consistency of their response to localised habitat characteristics, which may be modified by larger-scale effects of habitat fragmentation and loss. We assessed the relative contribution of habitat fragmentation, habitat loss and within-patch habitat characteristics in determining ant assemblages in semi-arid woodland in Queensland, Australia. Species and functional group abundance were recorded using pitfall traps across 20 woodland patches in landscapes that exhibited a range of fragmentation states. Of fragmentation measures, changes in patch area and patch edge contrast exerted the greatest influence on species assemblages, after accounting for differences in habitat loss. However, 35% of fragmentation effects on species were confounded by the effects of habitat characteristics and habitat loss. Within-patch habitat characteristics explained more than twice the amount of species variation attributable to fragmentation and four times the variation explained by habitat loss. The study indicates that within-patch habitat characteristics are the predominant drivers of ant composition. We suggest that caution should be exercised in interpreting the independent effects of habitat fragmentation and loss on ant assemblages without jointly considering localised habitat attributes and associated joint effects.

Dispersal capacity and diet breadth modify the response of wild bees to habitat loss

Habitat loss poses a major threat to biodiversity, and species-specific extinction risks are inextricably linked to life-history characteristics. This relationship is still poorly documented for many functionally important taxa, and at larger continental scales. With data from five replicated field studies from three countries, we examined how species richness of wild bees varies with habitat patch size. We hypothesized that the form of this relationship is affected by body size, degree of host plant specialization and sociality. Across all species, we found a positive species–area slope (z ¼ 0.19), and species traits modified this relationship. Large-bodied generalists had a lower z value than small generalists. Contrary to predictions, small specialists had similar or slightly lower z value compared with large specialists, and small generalists also tended to be more strongly affected by habitat loss as compared with small specialists. Social bees were negatively affected by habitat loss (z ¼ 0.11) irrespective of body size. We conclude that habitat loss leads to clear shifts in the species composition of wild bee communities.

Collapse of an avifauna : climate change appears to exacerbate habitat loss and degradation

Aim. We characterized changes in reporting rates and abundances of bird species over a period of severe rainfall deficiency and increasing average temperatures. We also measured flowering in eucalypts, which support large numbers of nectarivores characteristic of the region.

Location.  A 30,000-km2 region of northern Victoria, Australia, consisting of limited amounts of remnant native woodlands embedded in largely agricultural landscapes.

Methods. There were three sets of monitoring studies, pitched at regional  (survey programmes in 1995–97, 2004–05 and 2006–08), landscape (2002–03 and 2006–07) and site (1997–2008 continuously) scales. Bird survey techniques used a standard 2-ha, 20-min count method. We used Bayesian analyses of reporting rates to document statistically changes in the avifauna through time at each spatial scale.

Results. Bird populations in the largest remnants of native vegetation (up to 40,000 ha), some of which have been declared as national parks in the past decade, experienced similar declines to those in heavily cleared andscapes. All categories of birds (guilds based on foraging substrate, diet, nest site; relative mobility; geographical distributions) were affected similarly. We detected virtually no bird breeding in the latest survey periods. Eucalypt flowering has declined significantly over the past 12 years of drought.

Main conclusions. Declines in the largest woodland remnants commensurate with those in cleared landscapes suggest that reserve systems may not be relied upon to sustain species under climate change. We attribute population declines to low breeding success due to reduced food. Resilience of bird populations in this woodland system might be increased by active management to enhance habitat quality in existing vegetation and restoration of woodland in the more fertile parts of landscapes.

Predicting landscape-genetic consequences of habitat loss, fragmentation and mobility for multiple species of woodland birds

Inference concerning the impact of habitat fragmentation on dispersal and gene flow is a key theme in landscape genetics. Recently, the ability of established approaches to identify reliably the differential effects of landscape structure (e.g. land-cover composition, remnant vegetation configuration and extent) on the mobility of organisms has been questioned. More explicit methods of predicting and testing for such effects must move beyond post hoc explanations for single landscapes and species. Here, we document a process for making a priori predictions, using existing spatial and ecological data and expert opinion, of the effects of landscape structure on genetic structure of multiple species across replicated landscape blocks. We compare the results of two common methods for estimating the influence of landscape structure on effective distance: least-cost path analysis and isolation-by-resistance. We present a series of alternative models of genetic connectivity in the study area, represented by different landscape resistance surfaces for calculating effective distance, and identify appropriate null models. The process is applied to ten species of sympatric woodland-dependant birds. For each species, we rank a priori the expectation of fit of genetic response to the models according to the expected response of birds to loss of structural connectivity and landscape-scale tree-cover. These rankings (our hypotheses) are presented for testing with empirical genetic data in a subsequent contribution. We propose that this replicated landscape, multi-species approach offers a robust method for identifying the likely effects of landscape fragmentation on dispersal.

Fine-scale effects of habitat loss and fragmentation despite large-scale gene flow for some regionally declining woodland bird species

Habitat loss and associated fragmentation effects are well-recognised threats to biodiversity. Loss of functional connectivity (mobility, gene flow and demographic continuity) could result in population decline in altered habitat, because smaller, isolated populations are more vulnerable to extinction. We tested whether substantial habitat reduction plus fragmentation is associated with reduced gene flow in three 'decliner' woodland-dependent bird species (eastern yellow robin, weebill and spotted pardalote) identified in earlier work to have declined disproportionately in heavily fragmented landscapes in the Box-Ironbark forest region in north-central Victoria, Australia. For these three decliners, and one 'tolerant' species (striated pardalote), we compared patterns of genetic diversity, relatedness, effective population size, sex-ratios and genic (allele frequency) differentiation among landscapes of different total tree cover, identified population subdivision at the regional scale, and explored fine-scale genotypic (individual-based genetic signature) structure. Unexpectedly high genetic connectivity across the study region was detected for 'decliner' and 'tolerant' species. Power analysis simulations suggest that moderate reductions in gene flow should have been detectable. However, there was evidence of local negative effects of reduced habitat extent and structural connectivity: slightly lower effective population sizes, lower genetic diversity, higher within-site relatedness and altered sex-ratios (for weebill and eastern yellow robin) in 10 x 10 km 'landscapes' with low vegetation cover. We conclude that reduced structural connectivity in the Box-Ironbark ecosystem may still allow sufficient gene flow to avoid the harmful effects of inbreeding in our study species. Although there may still be negative consequences of fragmentation for demographic connectivity, the high genetic connectivity of mobile bird species in this system suggests that reconnecting isolated habitat patches may be less important than increasing habitat extent and/or quality if these need to be traded off.

Extinction risk in cloud forest fragments under climate change and habitat loss

Aim: To quantify the consequences of major threats to biodiversity, such as climate and land-use change, it is important to use explicit measures of species persistence, such as extinction risk. The extinction risk of metapopulations can be approximated through simple models, providing a regional snapshot of the extinction probability of a species. We evaluated the extinction risk of three species under different climate change scenarios in three different regions of the Mexican cloud forest, a highly fragmented habitat that is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Location Cloud forests in Mexico.
Methods: Using Maxent, we estimated the potential distribution of cloud forest for three different time horizons (2030, 2050 and 2080) and their overlap with protected areas. Then, we calculated the extinction risk of three contrasting vertebrate species for two scenarios: (1) climate change only (all suitable areas of cloud forest through time) and (2) climate and land-use change (only suitable areas within a currently protected area), using an explicit patch-occupancy approximation model and calculating the joint probability of all populations becoming extinct when the number of remaining patches was less than five.
Results: Our results show that the extent of environmentally suitable areas for cloud forest in Mexico will sharply decline in the next 70 years. We discovered that if all habitat outside protected areas is transformed, then only species with small area requirements are likely to persist. With habitat loss through climate change only, high dispersal rates are sufficient for persistence, but this requires protection of all remaining cloud forest areas.
Main conclusions: Even if high dispersal rates mitigate the extinction risk of species due to climate change, the synergistic impacts of changing climate and land use further threaten the persistence of species with higher area requirements. Our approach for assessing the impacts of threats on biodiversity is particularly useful when there is little time or data for detailed population viability analyses.

Ticks (Acari: Ixodidae) on Wild Marsh-Deer (Blastocerus dichotomus) from Southeast Brazil: Infestations before and after Habitat Loss

The lake from Porto-Primavera hydroelectric power station inundated an area of 2,200 km2 at the border of São Paulo and Mato-Grosso do Sul States, Brazil. Infestations by ticks were evaluated on 135 marsh deer, Blastocerus dichotomus (Illiger), captured before and after inundation. Ticks were collected for identification, and infestation level of animals was assessed by scoring. Deer were divided into four groups according to capture location and temporal relation to the inundation. Groups 1, 2, and 3 were captured before inundation. Group 4 was captured after inundation. Four tick species were found: Amblyomma cajennense (F.), Amblyomma triste Koch, Anocentor nitens (Neumann), and Boophilus microplus (Canestrini). Groups 1, 2, 3, and 4 had 30, 45, 100, and 96%, respectively, of animals carrying B. microplus ticks. A. triste was observed on 16, 22, 22, and 88% of animals from groups 1,2,3, and 4, respectively. A. nitens and A. cajennense were observed only on group 4, on 32 and 16% of the animals, respectively. Groups 1 and 2 had only 4.8 and 6.1% of animals with high infestation levels, respectively, and no ticks on 46.8% and 45.5% of the animals, respectively. Conversely, groups 3 and 4 lacked noninfested animals and had high infestation levels on 77.8 and 50% of deer, respectively. Marsh area shrinkage was blamed for higher infestation levels on deer from groups 3 and 4. The widespread presence of A. triste on marsh deer, a Neotropical tick species, raises the possibility of a natural host-parasite relationship.

Genetic resource impacts of habitat loss and degradation; reconciling empirical evidence and predicted theory for neotropical trees

The theoretical impacts of anthropogenic habitat degradation on genetic resources have been well articulated. Here we use a simulation approach to assess the magnitude of expected genetic change, and review 31 studies of 23 neotropical tree species to assess whether empirical case studies conform to theory. Major differences in the sensitivity of measures to detect the genetic health of degraded populations were obvious. Most studies employing genetic diversity (nine out of 13) found no significant consequences, yet most that assessed progeny inbreeding (six out of eight), reproductive output (seven out of 10) and fitness (all six) highlighted significant impacts. These observations are in line with theory, where inbreeding is observed immediately following impact, but genetic diversity is lost slowly over subsequent generations, which for trees may take decades. Studies also highlight the ecological, not just genetic, consequences of habitat degradation that can cause reduced seed set and progeny fitness. Unexpectedly, two studies examining pollen flow using paternity analysis highlight an extensive network of gene flow at smaller spatial scales (less than 10 km). Gene flow can thus mitigate against loss of genetic diversity and assist in long-term population viability, even in degraded landscapes. Unfortunately, the surveyed studies were too few and heterogeneous to examine concepts of population size thresholds and genetic resilience in relation to life history. Future suggested research priorities include undertaking integrated studies on a range of species in the same landscapes; better documentation of the extent and duration of impact; and most importantly, combining neutral marker, pollination dynamics, ecological consequences, and progeny fitness assessment within single studies.

A chain is as strong as its weakest link: assessing the consequences of habitat loss and degradation in a long-distance migratory shorebird

The conservation of migratory species represents a major challenge, as they use multiple sites, all contributing in varying degrees in sustaining high survival and reproductive success. There is particular concern for shorebirds of the East Asian-Australasian Flyway (EAAF), where declining numbers of migratory species have mostly been attributed to habitat loss along the East Asian coast. Using a stochastic dynamic programming migration model, we assessed the effect of habitat degradation scenarios along the EAAF on migration behaviour, survival and reproductive success of a long-distance migrating shorebird, the Ruddy Turnstone (Arenaria interpres). Following manipulation of habitat quality through changes in intake rate, we found that changes on the wintering (major non-breeding) ground in South Australia had the highest negative effect on reproductive success and survival. We also identified Taiwan and the Yellow Sea as sites with high importance for reproductive success. Although habitats along the East Asian coastline are currently most threatened from a range of global change processes, we highlight the importance of conserving high-quality shorebird wintering habitat in Australia. This may be of notable importance to trans-equatorial migratory shorebirds, which often make a long non-stop flight from their wintering grounds in order to skip low-latitude sites that typically provide little food.

Agricultural intensification and loss of matrix habitat over 23 years in the West Wimmera, south-eastern Australia

The global trend toward more intensive forms of agriculture is changing the nature of matrix habitat in agricultural areas. Removal of components of matrix habitat can affect native biota at the paddock and the landscape scale, particularly where intensification occurs over large areas. We identify the loss of paddock trees due to the proliferation of centre pivot irrigation in dryland farming areas as a potentially serious threat to the remnant biota of these areas. We used a region of south-eastern Australia as a case study to quantify land use change from grazing and dryland cropping to centre pivot irrigation over a 23-year period. We also estimated rates of paddock tree loss in 5 representative landscapes within the region over the same period. The total area affected by centre pivots increased from 0 ha in 1980 to nearly 9000 ha by 2005. Pivots were more likely to be established in areas which had originally been plains savannah and woodlands containing buloke (Allocasuarina luehmannii), a food source for an endangered bird. On average, 42% of paddock buloke trees present in 1982 were lost by 2005. In the two landscapes containing several centre pivots, the loss was 54% and 70%. This accelerated loss of important components of matrix habitat is likely to result in species declines and local extinctions. We recommend that measures to alleviate the likely negative impacts of matrix habitat loss on native biota be considered as part of regional planning strategies.