A Closed Door That Leaves Us Guessing

O projecto “Principais tendências no cinema português contemporâneo” nasceu no Departamento de Cinema da ESTC, com o objectivo de desenvolver investigação especializada a partir de um núcleo formado por alunos da Licenciatura em Cinema e do Mestrado em Desenvolvimento de Projecto Cinematográfico, a que se juntaram professores-investigadores membros do CIAC e convidados. O que agora se divulga corresponde a dois anos e meio de trabalho desenvolvido pela equipa de investigação, entre Abril de 2009 e Novembro de 2011. Dada a forma que ele foi adquirindo, preferimos renomeá-lo, para efeitos de divulgação, “Novas & velhas tendências no cinema português contemporâneo”.

Detecting Deceit – Guessing or Assessing? Study on the Applicability of Veracity Assessment Methods in Human Intelligence

Intelligence from a human source, that is falsely thought to be true, is potentially more harmful than a total lack of it. The veracity assessment of the gathered intelligence is one of the most important phases of the intelligence process. Lie detection and veracity assessment methods have been studied widely but a comprehensive analysis of these methods’ applicability is lacking. There are some problems related to the efficacy of lie detection and veracity assessment. According to a conventional belief an almighty lie detection method, that is almost 100% accurate and suitable for any social encounter, exists. However, scientific studies have shown that this is not the case, and popular approaches are often over simplified. The main research question of this study was: What is the applicability of veracity assessment methods, which are reliable and are based on scientific proof, in terms of the following criteria? o Accuracy, i.e. probability of detecting deception successfully o Ease of Use, i.e. easiness to apply the method correctly o Time Required to apply the method reliably o No Need for Special Equipment o Unobtrusiveness of the method In order to get an answer to the main research question, the following supporting research questions were answered first: What kinds of interviewing and interrogation techniques exist and how could they be used in the intelligence interview context, what kinds of lie detection and veracity assessment methods exist that are reliable and are based on scientific proof and what kind of uncertainty and other limitations are included in these methods? Two major databases, Google Scholar and Science Direct, were used to search and collect existing topic related studies and other papers. After the search phase, the understanding of the existing lie detection and veracity assessment methods was established through a meta-analysis. Multi Criteria Analysis utilizing Analytic Hierarchy Process was conducted to compare scientifically valid lie detection and veracity assessment methods in terms of the assessment criteria. In addition, a field study was arranged to get a firsthand experience of the applicability of different lie detection and veracity assessment methods. The Studied Features of Discourse and the Studied Features of Nonverbal Communication gained the highest ranking in overall applicability. They were assessed to be the easiest and fastest to apply, and to have required temporal and contextual sensitivity. The Plausibility and Inner Logic of the Statement, the Method for Assessing the Credibility of Evidence and the Criteria Based Content Analysis were also found to be useful, but with some limitations. The Discourse Analysis and the Polygraph were assessed to be the least applicable. Results from the field study support these findings. However, it was also discovered that the most applicable methods are not entirely troublefree either. In addition, this study highlighted that three channels of information, Content, Discourse and Nonverbal Communication, can be subjected to veracity assessment methods that are scientifically defensible. There is at least one reliable and applicable veracity assessment method for each of the three channels. All of the methods require disciplined application and a scientific working approach. There are no quick gains if high accuracy and reliability is desired. Since most of the current lie detection studies are concentrated around a scenario, where roughly half of the assessed people are totally truthful and the other half are liars who present a well prepared cover story, it is proposed that in future studies lie detection and veracity assessment methods are tested against partially truthful human sources. This kind of test setup would highlight new challenges and opportunities for the use of existing and widely studied lie detection methods, as well as for the modern ones that are still under development.

Demand of children in Colombia : guessing or planning

El artículo analiza los determinantes de la presencia de hijos no deseados en Colombia. Se utiliza la información de la Encuesta Nacional de Demografía y Salud (ENDS, 2005), específicamente para las mujeres de 40 años o más. Dadas las características especiales de la variable que se analiza, se utilizan modelos de conteo para verificar si determinadas características socioeconómicas como la educación o el estrato económico explican la presencia de hijos no deseados. Se encuentra que la educación de la mujer y el área de residencia son determinantes significativos de los nacimientos no planeados. Además, la relación negativa entre el número de hijos no deseados y la educación de la mujer arroja implicaciones clave en materia de política social.

Guessing Harmonic Oscillator Wavefunctions Using Maple

The guessing of eigenfunctions is not trivial at higher quantum numbers, no matter what the system being considered. Instead of guessing, one can employ a symbolic calculus progam (Maple in this case) to aid in the reasoning process.

Guessing Solutions to the H-atom Schrodinger Equation

In teaching elementary quantum chemistry, the concept of eigenfunctionality is explored using the H-atom's Hamiltonian and various guessed functions. This is done in Cartesian coordinates, in Spherical Polar coordinates, and in Confocal Elliptical coordinates.

Perseveration in a guessing task by laying hens selected for high or low levels of feather pecking does not support classification of feather pecking as a stereotypy.

Feather pecking is a behaviour by which birds damage or destroy the feathers of themselves (self-pecking) or other birds (allo feather pecking), in some cases even plucking out feathers and eating these. The self-pecking is rarely seen in domestic laying hens but is not uncommon in parrots. Feather pecking in laying hens has been described as being stereotypic, i.e. a repetitive invariant motor pattern without an obvious function, and indeed the amount of self-pecking in parrots was found to correlate positively with the amount of recurrent perseveration (RP), the tendency to repeat responses inappropriately, which in humans and other animals was found to correlate with stereotypic behaviour. In the present experiment we set out to investigate the correlation between allo feather pecking and RP in laying hens. We used birds (N = 92) from the 10th and 11th generation (G10 and G11) of lines selectively bred for high feather pecking (HFP) and low feather pecking (LFP), and from an unselected control line (CON) with intermediate levels of feather pecking. We hypothesised that levels of RP would be higher, and the time taken (standardised latency) to repeat a response lower, in HFP compared to LFP hens, with CON hens in between. Using a two-choice guessing task, we found that lines differed significantly in their levels of RP, with HFP unexpectedly showing lower levels of RP than CON and LFP. Latency to make a repeat did not differ between lines. Latency to make a switch differed between lines with a shorter latency in HFP compared to LFP (in G10), or CON (in G11). Latency to peck for repeats vs. latency to peck for switches did not differ between lines. Total time to complete the test was significantly shorter in HFP compared to CON and LFP. Thus, our hypotheses were not supported by the data. In contrast, selection for feather pecking seems to induce the opposite effects than would be expected from stereotyping animals: pecking was less sequenced and reaction to make a switch and to complete the test was lower in HFP. This supports the hyperactivity-model of feather pecking, suggesting that feather pecking is related to a higher general activity, possibly due to changes in the dopaminergic system.

DAEDALUS at PAN 2014: Guessing tweet author's gender and age

This paper describes our participation at PAN 2014 author profiling task. Our idea was to define, develop and evaluate a simple machine learning classifier able to guess the gender and the age of a given user based on his/her texts, which could become part of the solution portfolio of the company. We were interested in finding not the best possible classifier that achieves the highest accuracy, but to find the optimum balance between performance and throughput using the most simple strategy and less dependent of external systems. Results show that our software using Naive Bayes Multinomial with a term vector model representation of the text is ranked quite well among the rest of participants in terms of accuracy.

Watermark-only security attack on DM-QIM watermarking:vulnerability to guided key guessing

This paper addresses the security of a specific class of common watermarking methods based on Dither modulation-quantisation index modulation (DM-QIM) and focusing on watermark-only attacks (WOA). The vulnerabilities of and probable attacks on lattice structure based watermark embedding methods have been presented in the literature. DM-QIM is one of the best known lattice structure based watermarking techniques. In this paper, the authors discuss a watermark-only attack scenario (the attacker has access to a single watermarked content only). In the literature it is an assumption that DM-QIM methods are secure to WOA. However, the authors show that the DM-QIM based embedding method is vulnerable against a guided key guessing attack by exploiting subtle statistical regularities in the feature space embeddings for time series and images. Using a distribution-free algorithm, this paper presents an analysis of the attack and numerical results for multiple examples of image and time series data.

Watermark-only security attack on DM-QIM watermarking:vulnerability to guided key guessing

This paper addresses the security of a specific class of common watermarking methods based on Dither modulation-quantisation index modulation (DM-QIM) and focusing on watermark-only attacks (WOA). The vulnerabilities of and probable attacks on lattice structure based watermark embedding methods have been presented in the literature. DM-QIM is one of the best known lattice structure based watermarking techniques. In this paper, the authors discuss a watermark-only attack scenario (the attacker has access to a single watermarked content only). In the literature it is an assumption that DM-QIM methods are secure to WOA. However, the authors show that the DM-QIM based embedding method is vulnerable against a guided key guessing attack by exploiting subtle statistical regularities in the feature space embeddings for time series and images. Using a distribution-free algorithm, this paper presents an analysis of the attack and numerical results for multiple examples of image and time series data.

The difference model with guessing explains interval bias in two-alternative forced- chocice detection procedures

The standard difference model of two-alternative forced-choice (2AFC) tasks implies that performance should be the same when the target is presented in the first or the second interval. Empirical data often show “interval bias” in that percentage correct differs significantly when the signal is presented in the first or the second interval. We present an extension of the standard difference model that accounts for interval bias by incorporating an indifference zone around the null value of the decision variable. Analytical predictions are derived which reveal how interval bias may occur when data generated by the guessing model are analyzed as prescribed by the standard difference model. Parameter estimation methods and goodness-of-fit testing approaches for the guessing model are also developed and presented. A simulation study is included whose results show that the parameters of the guessing model can be estimated accurately. Finally, the guessing model is tested empirically in a 2AFC detection procedure in which guesses were explicitly recorded. The results support the guessing model and indicate that interval bias is not observed when guesses are separated out.

Correction for guessing in choice reaction time

Additional theoretical and experimental results are presented for a choice reaction time performance model described by Oilman (1966). A formula is given for estimating the latency distribution of true recognition responses from the results of a single session; the estimate is invariant with respect to changes in the proportion of “guess” responses and with respect to fluctuations in the latency distribution of guesses. © 1967, Psychonomic Press. All rights reserved.

Methods for prediction of peptide binding to MHC molecules: A comparative study

Background: A variety of methods for prediction of peptide binding to major histocompatibility complex (MHC) have been proposed. These methods are based on binding motifs, binding matrices, hidden Markov models (HMM), or artificial neural networks (ANN). There has been little prior work on the comparative analysis of these methods. Materials and Methods: We performed a comparison of the performance of six methods applied to the prediction of two human MHC class I molecules, including binding matrices and motifs, ANNs, and HMMs. Results: The selection of the optimal prediction method depends on the amount of available data (the number of peptides of known binding affinity to the MHC molecule of interest), the biases in the data set and the intended purpose of the prediction (screening of a single protein versus mass screening). When little or no peptide data are available, binding motifs are the most useful alternative to random guessing or use of a complete overlapping set of peptides for selection of candidate binders. As the number of known peptide binders increases, binding matrices and HMM become more useful predictors. ANN and HMM are the predictive methods of choice for MHC alleles with more than 100 known binding peptides. Conclusion: The ability of bioinformatic methods to reliably predict MHC binding peptides, and thereby potential T-cell epitopes, has major implications for clinical immunology, particularly in the area of vaccine design.

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Dissertação de mestrado em Direito Administrativo

Minimax lower bounds for the two-armed bandit problem

We obtain minimax lower bounds on the regret for the classicaltwo--armed bandit problem. We provide a finite--sample minimax version of the well--known log $n$ asymptotic lower bound of Lai and Robbins. Also, in contrast to the log $n$ asymptotic results on the regret, we show that the minimax regret is achieved by mere random guessing under fairly mild conditions on the set of allowable configurations of the two arms. That is, we show that for {\sl every} allocation rule and for {\sl every} $n$, there is a configuration such that the regret at time $n$ is at least 1 -- $\epsilon$ times the regret of random guessing, where $\epsilon$ is any small positive constant.