Using system dynamics for collaborative design : a case study

Background  In order to facilitate the collaborative design, system dynamics (SD) with a group modelling approach was used in the early stages of planning a new stroke unit. During six workshops a SD model was created in a multiprofessional group. Aim To explore to which extent and how the use of system dynamics contributed to the collaborative design process. Method A case study was conducted using several data sources. Results SD supported a collaborative design, by facilitating an explicit description of stroke care process, a dialogue and a joint understanding. The construction of the model obliged the group to conceptualise the stroke care and experimentation with the model gave the opportunity to reflect on care. Conclusion SD facilitated the collaborative design process and should be integrated in the early stages of the design process as a quality improvement tool.

Using modeling as a co-design approach in the planning process of new care environments

Current research shows a relationship between healthcare architecture and patient-related Outcomes. The planning and designing of new healthcare environments is a complex process; the needs of the various end-users of the environment must be considered, including the patients, the patients’ significant others, and the staff. The aim of this study was to explore the experiences of healthcare professionals participating in group modelling utilizing system dynamics in the pre-design phase of new healthcare environments. We engaged healthcare professionals in a series of workshops using system dynamics to discuss the planning of healthcare environments in the beginning of a construction, and then interviewed them about their experience. An explorative and qualitative design was used to describe participants’ experiences of participating in the group modelling projects. Participants (n=20) were recruited from a larger intervention study using group modeling and system dynamics in planning and designing projects. The interviews were analysed by qualitative content analysis. Two themes were formed, representing the experiences in the group modeling process: ‘Partaking in the G-M created knowledge and empowerment’and ‘Partaking in the G-M was different from what was expected and required time and skills’. The method can support participants in design teams to focus more on their healthcare organization, their care activities and their aims rather than focusing on detailed layout solutions. This clarification is important when decisions about the design are discussed and prepared and will most likely lead to greater readiness for future building process.

Modelling basin level allocation of water in the Murray-Darling Basin in a world of uncertainty, Murray-Darling Program Working Papers WPM05-1, Risk and Sustainable Management Group, 8 February 2005

Abstract: The Murray-Darling Basin comprises over 1 million km2; it lies within four states and one territory; and over 12, 800 GL of irrigation water is used to produce over 40% of the nation's gross value of agricultural production. This production is used by a diverse collection of some-times mutually exclusive commodities (e.g. pasture; stone fruit; grapes; cotton and field crops). The supply of water for irrigation is subject to climatic and policy uncertainty. Variable inflows mean that water property rights do not provide a guaranteed supply. With increasing public scrutiny and environmental issues facing irrigators, greater pressure is being placed on this finite resource. The uncertainty of the water supply, water quality (salinity), combined with where water is utilised, while attempting to maximising return for investment makes for an interesting research field. The utilisation and comparison of a GAMS and Excel based modelling approach has been used to ask: where should we allocate water?; amongst what commodities?; and how does this affect both the quantity of water and the quality of water along the Murray-Darling river system?

Modelling group decision simulation through argumentation

Group decision making plays an important role in today’s organisations. The impact of decision making is so high and complex, that rarely the decision making process is made individually. In Group Decision Argumentation, there is a set of participants, with different profiles and expertise levels, that exchange ideas or engage in a process of argumentation and counter-argumentation, negotiate, cooperate, collaborate or even discuss techniques and/or methodologies for problem solving. In this paper, it is proposed a Multi-Agent simulator for the behaviour representation of group members in a decision making process. Agents behave depending on rational and emotional intelligence and use persuasive argumentation to convince and make alternative choices.

Spectroscopic analysis of C80 doping with group III and group V elements using semiempirical PM3 molecular modelling technique

Semiempirical calculations at the level of PM3 of theory were carried out to study the structural and electronic properties of C80 and some of its doped derivatives with the elements of group III and V at the level of PM3 of theory. We have selected these elements to be substituted in the fullerene-C80 cage in order to show the effect of such structural change on the electronic properties of the molecules studied. The theoretical IR spectra, some of physical and chemical properties of the molecules studied are obtained and discussed.

Modelling QoS of a pervasive MVNO/M2M using semi-group theory

This paper aims to develop a mathematical model based on semi-group theory, which allows to improve quality of service (QoS), including the reduction of the carbon path, in a pervasive environment of a Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO). This paper generalise an interrelationship Machine to Machine (M2M) mathematical model, based on semi-group theory. This paper demonstrates that using available technology and with a solid mathematical model, is possible to streamline relationships between building agents, to control pervasive spaces so as to reduce the impact in carbon footprint through the reduction of GHG.

Report on Expert Group Workshop on macroeconometric modelling in the Caribbean: new challenges and new directions

.--I. Background and justification.--II. Critical issues in macroeconometric modelling in the Caribbean.--III. Critical issues in macroeconometric modelling in the Caribbean.--IV. Economic modelling to determine the impacts of climate change in the Caribbean.--V. Wrap up

Report on expert group meeting on macroeconomic modelling in the Caribbean: new challenges and new directions

The purpose of the expert group meeting was to bring together modelling practitioners to share experiences and to reflect on how to overcome new and old challenges to model building in the Caribbean. As part of the rationale for such a meeting, it was argued that since a major objective of policymaking in the Caribbean was to create the conditions for growth with equity while reducing vulnerability to economic and environmental shocks, model builders must develop strategies to properly address those questions in a unified way. It was further suggested that those goals, though straightforward, required a concentrated technical effort to clarify and update understanding of the workings of Caribbean economies. The emphasis on addressing issues of growth, equity and vulnerability was urgent because Caribbean economies were at a crossroads, with major challenges to the foundations and premises on which the economies had been built.

Report on expert group workshop on macroeconomic modelling in the Caribbean: new challenges and new directions.

The purpose of the expert group meeting was to bring together modelling practitioners to share experiences and to reflect on how to overcome new and old challenges to model building in the Caribbean. As part of the rationale for such a meeting, it was argued that since a major objective of policymaking in the Caribbean was to create the conditions for growth with equity while reducing vulnerability to economic and environmental shocks, model builders must develop strategies to properly address those questions in a unified way. It was further suggested that those goals, though straightforward, required a concentrated technical effort to clarify and update understanding of the workings of Caribbean economies. The emphasis on addressing issues of growth, equity and vulnerability was urgent because Caribbean economies were at a crossroads, with major challenges to the foundations and premises on which the economies had been built.

Risk attribution of Campylobacter infection by age group using exposure modelling

Knowledge on the relative importance of alternative sources of human campylobacteriosis is important in order to implement effective disease prevention measures. The objective of this study was to assess the relative importance of three key exposure pathways (travelling abroad, poultry meat, pet contact) for different patient age groups in Switzerland. With a stochastic exposure model data on Campylobacter incidence for the years 2002-2007 were linked with data for the three exposure pathways and the results of a case-control study. Mean values for the population attributable fractions (PAF) over all age groups and years were 27% (95% CI 17-39) for poultry consumption, 27% (95% CI 22-32) for travelling abroad, 8% (95% CI 6-9) for pet contact and 39% (95% CI 25-50) for other risk factors. This model provided robust results when using data available for Switzerland, but the uncertainties remained high. The output of the model could be improved if more accurate input data are available to estimate the infection rate per exposure. In particular, the relatively high proportion of cases attributed to 'other risk factors' requires further attention.

Kernels and Designs for Modelling Invariant Functions: From Group Invariance to Additivity

We focus on kernels incorporating different kinds of prior knowledge on functions to be approximated by Kriging. A recent result on random fields with paths invariant under a group action is generalised to combinations of composition operators, and a characterisation of kernels leading to random fields with additive paths is obtained as a corollary. A discussion follows on some implications on design of experiments, and it is shown in the case of additive kernels that the so-called class of “axis designs” outperforms Latin hypercubes in terms of the IMSE criterion.