Uncertainty Characterization Of A Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model By Using Grey Numbers

A procedure for characterizing global uncertainty of a rainfall-runoff simulation model based on using grey numbers is presented. By using the grey numbers technique the uncertainty is characterized by an interval; once the parameters of the rainfall-runoff model have been properly defined as grey numbers, by using the grey mathematics and functions it is possible to obtain simulated discharges in the form of grey numbers whose envelope defines a band which represents the vagueness/uncertainty associated with the simulated variable. The grey numbers representing the model parameters are estimated in such a way that the band obtained from the envelope of simulated grey discharges includes an assigned percentage of observed discharge values and is at the same time as narrow as possible. The approach is applied to a real case study highlighting that a rigorous application of the procedure for direct simulation through the rainfall-runoff model with grey parameters involves long computational times. However, these times can be significantly reduced using a simplified computing procedure with minimal approximations in the quantification of the grey numbers representing the simulated discharges. Relying on this simplified procedure, the conceptual rainfall-runoff grey model is thus calibrated and the uncertainty bands obtained both downstream of the calibration process and downstream of the validation process are compared with those obtained by using a well-established approach, like the GLUE approach, for characterizing uncertainty. The results of the comparison show that the proposed approach may represent a valid tool for characterizing the global uncertainty associable with the output of a rainfall-runoff simulation model.

Systematisierung, Bewertung und Modellierung der Unsicherheiten in der Leercontainerlogistik

Dieser Beitrag beschreibt Unsicherheiten in den Prozessen der Leercontainerlogistik und beinhaltet einen Systematisierungsansatz, der die Akteure bei der operativen Planung unterstützen soll. Weiterhin werden ausgewählte Modellierungskonzepte zur Berücksichtigung von Unsicherheiten vorgestellt und hinsichtlich ihrer Eignung zum Einsatz in mathematischen Optimierungsmodellen für das Leercontainermanagement analysiert. An einem konkreten Fallbeispiel wird der mögliche Einbezug der sogenannten Grey-Zahlen verdeutlicht.

Hepatozoon griseisciuri in grey squirrels (Sciurus carolinensis): changes of blood leucocyte numbers resulting from infection

Numbers of leucocytes in squirrels with gametocytes of Hepatozoon in their blood (infected) were compared with animals without gametocytes (uninfected). Typical values for leucocytes/mm(3) blood in uninfected squirrels were: leucocytes 5-7 x 10(3), granulocytes 3-4 x 10(3), lymphocytes 2-0 x 10(3) and monocytes 0-3 x 10(3) cells. Infection caused an increase in monocytes, lymphocytes and granulocytes, and there was a significant positive association between parasitaemia level and numbers of both total leucocytes and monocytes. Infected animals had more uninfected monocytes/mm(3) blood than did uninfected animals. The proportions of monocytes were more variable over time in infected animals, but no shift between infected and uninfected status was detected. Transfer of serum from infected squirrels to mice resulted in elevated counts of total blood leucocytes, monocytes and granulocytes, but not of lymphocytes, as compared with controls. Serum from squirrels with high parasitaemias had a more marked effect than serum from squirrels with low parasitaemias. Results indicate an infection - related monocytosis, possibly controlled by cytokines, that increases the number of cells available for invasion by gametocytes, thus enhancing the chances of parasite transmission.

Edge detection in digital images using fuzzy numbers

The purpose of this paper is to introduce a new approach for edge detection in grey shaded images. The proposed approach is based on the fuzzy number theory. The idea is to deal with the uncertainties concerning the grey shades making up the image and, thus, calculate the appropriateness of the pixels in relation to a homogeneous region around them. The pixels not belonging to the region are then classified as border pixels. The results have shown that the technique is simple, computationally efficient and with good results when compared with both the traditional border detectors and the fuzzy edge detectors. Copyright © 2009, Inderscience Publishers.

Estimating the abundance of eastern grey kangaroos (Macropus giganteus) in south-eastern New South Wales, Australia

To provide an estimate of kangaroo numbers for harvest management, a survey was designed for an area of 29500 km(2) encompassing the agricultural and grazing lands of the Braidwood, Cooma, Goulburn, Gundagai and Yass Rural Lands Protection Board (RLPB) districts in south-east New South Wales. An aerial survey using a helicopter was considered more efficient than ground survey because of the size of the area, relatively high relief and dense tree cover, and the need for regular monitoring. Tree cover and landscape relief was used to stratify the five RLPB districts into areas of probable high, medium and low kangaroo density. Kangaroo density estimated from helicopter surveys conducted in the Northern Tablelands of New South Wales was used to suggest densities and thereby allocate survey effort in each stratum. A survey comprising 735 km of transect line was conducted in winter 2003 with a target precision of 20%. The survey returned an estimate of 286600 32300 eastern grey kangaroos for the whole of the proposed south-east New South Wales kangaroo-management zone. In 2004, a trial harvest of slightly less than 15% of this estimate was taken. Success of the trial will be determined by the impact of harvesting on the population's dynamics, by landholder and industry participation, and by the capacity to monitor population size, harvest offtake and compliance with regulations.

The Clinical Impact Of Cerebellar Grey Matter Pathology In Multiple Sclerosis.

The cerebellum is an important site for cortical demyelination in multiple sclerosis, but the functional significance of this finding is not fully understood. To evaluate the clinical and cognitive impact of cerebellar grey-matter pathology in multiple sclerosis patients. Forty-two relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis patients and 30 controls underwent clinical assessment including the Multiple Sclerosis Functional Composite, Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) and cerebellar functional system (FS) score, and cognitive evaluation, including the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test (PASAT) and the Symbol-Digit Modalities Test (SDMT). Magnetic resonance imaging was performed with a 3T scanner and variables of interest were: brain white-matter and cortical lesion load, cerebellar intracortical and leukocortical lesion volumes, and brain cortical and cerebellar white-matter and grey-matter volumes. After multivariate analysis high burden of cerebellar intracortical lesions was the only predictor for the EDSS (p<0.001), cerebellar FS (p = 0.002), arm function (p = 0.049), and for leg function (p<0.001). Patients with high burden of cerebellar leukocortical lesions had lower PASAT scores (p = 0.013), while patients with greater volumes of cerebellar intracortical lesions had worse SDMT scores (p = 0.015). Cerebellar grey-matter pathology is widely present and contributes to clinical dysfunction in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis patients, independently of brain grey-matter damage.

Yellowing And Bleaching Of Grey Hair Caused By Photo And Thermal Degradation.

Yellowing is an undesirable phenomenon that is common in people with white and grey hair. Because white hair has no melanin, the pigment responsible for hair colour, the effects of photodegradation are more visible in this type of hair. The origin of yellowing and its relation to photodegradation processes are not properly established, and many questions remain open in this field. In this work, the photodegradation of grey hair was investigated as a function of the wavelength of incident radiation, and its ultrastructure was determined, always comparing the results obtained for the white and black fibres present in grey hair with the results of white wool. The results presented herein indicate that the photobehaviour of grey hair irradiated with a mercury lamp or with solar radiation is dependent on the wavelength range of the incident radiation and on the initial shade of yellow in the sample. Two types of grey hair were used: (1) blended grey hair (more yellow) and (2) grey hair from a single-donor (less yellow). After exposure to a full-spectrum mercury lamp for 200 h, the blended white hair turned less yellow (the yellow-blue difference, Db(*) becomes negative, Db(*)=-6), whereas the white hair from the single-donor turned slightly yellower (Db(*)=2). In contrast, VIS+IR irradiation resulted in bleaching in both types of hair, whereas a thermal treatment (at 81 °C) caused yellowing of both types of hair, resulting in a Db(*)=3 for blended white hair and Db(*)=9 for single-donor hair. The identity of the yellow chromophores was investigated by UV-Vis spectroscopy. The results obtained with this technique were contradictory, however, and it was not possible to obtain a simple correlation between the sample shade of yellow and the absorption spectra. In addition, the results are discussed in terms of the morphology differences between the pigmented and non-pigmented parts of grey hair, the yellowing and bleaching effects of grey hair, and the occurrence of dark-follow reactions.

Tool wear aspects when applying high-speed tapping on grey cast iron

Tool wear is a very important subject affecting the economics of machining, especially in tapping, since it is one of the last operations to be performed within most operation sequences. In the present study, some aspects of tapping such as the mechanisms and types of wear were investigated in taps working at conventional and high-speed cutting (HSC). Additionally, different types of coatings and cooling /lubrication conditions were used. The tapping operation (M8 x 1.25) was performed in through holes with two cutting speeds (30 and 60 m/min) in grey cast iron GG25. Lubrication conditions tested were dry and with minimal quantity of lubricant. Tap materials were manufactured by powder metallurgy and coated with (TiAl)N and with TiCN. A go-non-go gauge criterion was used to assess tool life. The wear and surface aspects of the tools and workpiece were evaluated by scanning electron microscopy and energy dissipation spectroscopy. Torque signals were also measured during the tests. The main wear mechanism observed was adhesion, although some abrasion and diffusion may also have occurred, and the main type of wear was flank wear. The adhesion of workpiece material on the tool was the main and decisive factor ending tool life. Tool coatings proved to be an efficient way to minimize adhesion. Torque signals followed the same pattern as the flank wear and no significant change was observed when the cutting speed was increased.

VARIATION IN STOMATAL NUMBERS OF GLOSSOPTERIS LEAVES FROM THE LOWER PERMIAN OF PARANA BASIN, BRAZIL

The stomatal density and index in compressed leaves of Glossopteris communis from two different roof shales from the Lower Permian in Parana Basin, Brazil (Western Gondwana) have been investigated to test the possible relationship with modeled global changes in atmospheric CO(2) during the Phanerozoic. The obtained parameters show that the genus Glossopteris from the Cool Temperate biome can be used as CO(2) -proxy, despite the impossibility of being compared with living relatives or equivalents. When confronted with already published data for the Tropical Summer Wet biome, the present results confirm the detection of low levels of atmospheric CO(2) during the Early Permian, as predicted by the modeled curve. Nevertheless, the lower stomatal numbers detected at the climax of the coal interval (Faxinal Coalfield, Sakmarian) when compared to the higher ones obtained in leaves from a younger interval (Figueira Coalfield, Artinskian) could be attributed to temporarily high levels of atmospheric CO(2). Therefore, the occurrence of an extensive peat generating event at the southern part of the basin and subsequent greenhouse gases emissions from this environment may have been enough to reverse regionally and temporarily the reduction trend in atmospheric CO(2). Additionally, the Faxinal flora is preserved in a tonstein layer, which is a record of volcanic activity that could also cause a rise in atmospheric CO(2). During the Artinskian, the scarce generation of peat mires, as revealed by the occurrence of thin and discontinuous coal layers, and the lack of volcanism evidence would be insufficient to affect the general low CO(2) trend.

The production of school numbers (1871-1931): contributions to a critical approach to statistical sources in History of Education

This article intends to contribute to the reflection on the Educational Statistics as being source for the researches on History of Education. The main concern was to reveal the way Educational Statistics related to the period from 1871 to 1931 were produced, in central government. Official reports - from the General Statistics Directory - and Statistics yearbooks released by that department were analyzed and, on this analysis, recommendations and definitions to perform the works were sought. By rending problematic to the documental issues on Educational Statistics and their usual interpretations, the intention was to reduce the ignorance about the origin of the school numbers, which are occasionally used in current researches without the convenient critical exam.

Concentration inequalities and laws of large numbers under epistemic and regular irrelevance

This paper presents concentration inequalities and laws of large numbers under weak assumptions of irrelevance that are expressed using lower and upper expectations. The results build upon De Cooman and Miranda`s recent inequalities and laws of large numbers. The proofs indicate connections between the theory of martingales and concepts of epistemic and regular irrelevance. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Random numbers from astronomical imaging

This article describes a method to turn astronomical imaging into a random number generator by using the positions of incident cosmic rays and hot pixels to generate bit streams. We subject the resultant bit streams to a battery of standard benchmark statistical tests for randomness and show that these bit streams are statistically the same as a perfect random bit stream. Strategies for improving and building upon this method are outlined.

Long range forecasts of the numbers of Helicoverpa punctigera and H-armigera (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) in Australia using the Southern Oscillation Index and the Sea Surface Temperature

The use of long-term forecasts of pest pressure is central to better pest management. We relate the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) to long-term light-trap catches of the two key moth pests of Australian agriculture, Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) and H. armigera (Hubner), at Narrabri, New South Wales over 11 years, and for H. punctigera only at Turretfield, South Australia over 22 years. At Narrabri, the size of the first spring generation of both species was significantly correlated with the SOI in certain months, sometimes up to 15 months before the date of trapping. Differences in the SOI and SST between significant months were used to build composite variables in multiple regressions which gave fitted values of the trap catches to less than 25% of the observed values. The regressions suggested that useful forecasts of both species could be made 6-15 months ahead. The influence of the two weather variables on trap catches of H. punctigera at Turretfield were not as strong as at Narrabri, probably because the SOI was not as strongly related to rainfall in southern Australia as it is in eastern Australia. The best fits were again given by multiple regressions with SOI plus SST variables, to within 40% of the observed values. The reliability of both variables as predictors of moth numbers may be limited by the lack of stability in the SOI-rainfall correlation over the historical record. As no other data set is available to test the regressions, they can only be tested by future use. The use of long-term forecasts in pest management is discussed, and preliminary analyses of other long sets of insect numbers suggest that the Southern Oscillation Index may be a useful predictor of insect numbers in other parts of the world.