The persistence of distance: a gravity model of European cross-border real estate development flows

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate the scale and drivers of cross-border real estate development in Western Europe and Central and Eastern Europe. Design/methodology/approach – Placing cross-border real estate development within the framework of foreign direct investment (FDI), conceptual complexities in characterizing the notional real estate developer are emphasized. Drawing upon a transaction database, this paper proxies cross-border real estate development flows with asset sales by developers. Findings – Much higher levels of market penetration by international real estate developers are found in the less mature markets of Central and Eastern Europe. Analysis suggests a complex range of determinants with physical distance remaining a consistent barrier to cross-border development flows. Originality/value – This analysis adds significant value in terms of understanding cross-border real estate development flows. In this study, a detailed examination of the issues based on a rigorous empirical analysis through gravity modelling is offered. The gravity framework is one of the most confirmed empirical regularities in international economics and commonly applied to trade, FDI, migration, foreign portfolio investment inter alia. This paper assesses the extent to which it provides useful insights into the pattern of cross-border real estate development flows.

A gravity model for trade between Vietnam and twenty-three European countries

This thesis examines the bilateral trade between Vietnam and twenty three European countries based on a gravity model and panel data for years 1993 to 2004. Estimates indicate that economic size, market size and real exchange rate of Vietnam and twenty three European countries play major role in bilateral trade between Vietnam and these countries. Distance and history, however, do not seem to drive the bilateral trade. The results of gravity model are also applied to calculate the trade potential between Vietnam and twenty three European countries. It shows that Vietnam’s trade with twenty three European countries has considerable room for growth.

Brazilian international and inter-state trade flows: an exploratory analysis using the gravity model

Recent efforts toward a world with freer trade, like WTO/GATT or regional Preferential Trade Agreements(PTAs), were put in doubt after McCallum's(1995) finding of a large border effect between US and Canadian provinces. Since then, there has been a great amount of research on this topic employing the gravity equation. This dissertation has two goals. The first goal is to review comprehensively the recent literature about the gravity equation, including its usages, econometric specifications, and the efforts to provide it with microeconomic foundations. The second goal is the estimation of the Brazilian border effect (or 'home-bias trade puzzle') using inter-state and international trade flow data. It is used a pooled cross-section Tobit model. The lowest border effect estimated was 15, which implies that Brazilian states trade among themselves 15 times more than they trade with foreign countries. Further research using industry disaggregated data is needed to qualify the estimated border effect with respect to which part of that effect can be attributed to actual trade costs and which part is the outcome of the endogenous location problem of the firm.

Braneworlds scenarios in a gravity model with higher order spatial three-curvature terms

In this work we study a Hořava-like 5-dimensional model in the context of braneworld theory. The equations of motion of such model are obtained and, within the realm of warped geometry, we show that the model is consistent if and only if λ takes its relativistic value 1. Furthermore, we show that the elimination of problematic terms involving the warp factor second order derivatives are eliminated by imposing detailed balance condition in the bulk. Afterwards, Israel's junction conditions are computed, allowing the attainment of an effective Lagrangian in the visible brane. In particular, we show that the resultant effective Lagrangian in the brane corresponds to a (3 + 1)-dimensional Hořava-like model with an emergent positive cosmological constant but without detailed balance condition. Now, restoration of detailed balance condition, at this time imposed over the brane, plays an interesting role by fitting accordingly the sign of the arbitrary constant β, insuring a positive brane tension and a real energy for the graviton within its dispersion relation. Also, the brane consistency equations are obtained and, as a result, the model admits positive brane tensions in the compactification scheme if, and only if, β is negative and the detailed balance condition is imposed. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg and Società Italiana di Fisica.

Myanmar's non-resource export potential after the lifting of economic sanctions : a gravity model analysis

Easing of economic sanctions by Western countries in 2012 augmented the prospect that Myanmar will expand its exports. On the other hand, a sharp rise in natural resource exports during the sanctions brings in a concern about the "Dutch disease". This study projects Myanmar's export potential by calculating counterfactual export values with an augmented gravity model that takes into account the effects of natural resource exports on non-resource exports. Without taking into account the effects of natural resource exports, the counterfactual predicted values of non-resource exports during 2004–2011 are more than five times larger than the actual exports. If we take into account the effects, however, the predicted values are smaller than the actual exports. The empirical results imply that the "Dutch disease" is at stake in Myanmar than any other Southeast Asian countries.

Calibrating & testing a gravity model for any size urban area.

Includes bibliography.

Predicting health programme participation: A gravity‐based, hierarchical modelling approach

Statistical analyses of health program participation seek to address a number of objectives compatible with the evaluation of demand for current resources. In this spirit, a spatial hierarchical model is developed for disentangling patterns in participation at the small area level, as a function of population-based demand and additional variation. For the former, a constrained gravity model is proposed to quantify factors associated with spatial choice and account for competition effects, for programs delivered by multiple clinics. The implications of gravity model misspecification within a mixed effects framework are also explored. The proposed model is applied to participation data from a no-fee mammography program in Brisbane, Australia. Attention is paid to the interpretation of various model outputs and their relevance for public health policy.

An Independent-Connection Model for Traffic Matrices

A common assumption made in traffic matrix (TM) modeling and estimation is independence of a packet's network ingress and egress. We argue that in real IP networks, this assumption should not and does not hold. The fact that most traffic consists of two-way exchanges of packets means that traffic streams flowing in opposite directions at any point in the network are not independent. In this paper we propose a model for traffic matrices based on independence of connections rather than packets. We argue that the independent connection (IC) model is more intuitive, and has a more direct connection to underlying network phenomena than the gravity model. To validate the IC model, we show that it fits real data better than the gravity model and that it works well as a prior in the TM estimation problem. We study the model's parameters empirically and identify useful stability properties. This justifies the use of the simpler versions of the model for TM applications. To illustrate the utility of the model we focus on two such applications: synthetic TM generation and TM estimation. To the best of our knowledge this is the first traffic matrix model that incorporates properties of bidirectional traffic.

Some interesting features of new massive gravity

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Antarctic free-air and complete Bouguer gravity anomaly grid

Gravity surveying is challenging in Antarctica because of its hostile environment and inaccessibility. Nevertheless, many ground-based, airborne and shipborne gravity campaigns have been completed by the geophysical and geodetic communities since the 1980s. We present the first modern Antarctic-wide gravity data compilation derived from 13 million data points covering an area of 10 million km**2, which corresponds to 73% coverage of the continent. The remove-compute-restore technique was applied for gridding, which facilitated levelling of the different gravity datasets with respect to an Earth Gravity Model derived from satellite data alone. The resulting free-air and Bouguer gravity anomaly grids of 10 km resolution are publicly available. These grids will enable new high-resolution combined Earth Gravity Models to be derived and represent a major step forward towards solving the geodetic polar data gap problem. They provide a new tool to investigate continental-scale lithospheric structure and geological evolution of Antarctica.

Hierarchical Bayesian models for estimating the extent of plant pest invasions

Plant biosecurity requires statistical tools to interpret field surveillance data in order to manage pest incursions that threaten crop production and trade. Ultimately, management decisions need to be based on the probability that an area is infested or free of a pest. Current informal approaches to delimiting pest extent rely upon expert ecological interpretation of presence / absence data over space and time. Hierarchical Bayesian models provide a cohesive statistical framework that can formally integrate the available information on both pest ecology and data. The overarching method involves constructing an observation model for the surveillance data, conditional on the hidden extent of the pest and uncertain detection sensitivity. The extent of the pest is then modelled as a dynamic invasion process that includes uncertainty in ecological parameters. Modelling approaches to assimilate this information are explored through case studies on spiralling whitefly, Aleurodicus dispersus and red banded mango caterpillar, Deanolis sublimbalis. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probable extent of pests, given the observation and process model conditioned by surveillance data. Statistical methods, based on time-to-event models, are developed to apply hierarchical Bayesian models to early detection programs and to demonstrate area freedom from pests. The value of early detection surveillance programs is demonstrated through an application to interpret surveillance data for exotic plant pests with uncertain spread rates. The model suggests that typical early detection programs provide a moderate reduction in the probability of an area being infested but a dramatic reduction in the expected area of incursions at a given time. Estimates of spiralling whitefly extent are examined at local, district and state-wide scales. The local model estimates the rate of natural spread and the influence of host architecture, host suitability and inspector efficiency. These parameter estimates can support the development of robust surveillance programs. Hierarchical Bayesian models for the human-mediated spread of spiralling whitefly are developed for the colonisation of discrete cells connected by a modified gravity model. By estimating dispersal parameters, the model can be used to predict the extent of the pest over time. An extended model predicts the climate restricted distribution of the pest in Queensland. These novel human-mediated movement models are well suited to demonstrating area freedom at coarse spatio-temporal scales. At finer scales, and in the presence of ecological complexity, exploratory models are developed to investigate the capacity for surveillance information to estimate the extent of red banded mango caterpillar. It is apparent that excessive uncertainty about observation and ecological parameters can impose limits on inference at the scales required for effective management of response programs. The thesis contributes novel statistical approaches to estimating the extent of pests and develops applications to assist decision-making across a range of plant biosecurity surveillance activities. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling is demonstrated as both a useful analytical tool for estimating pest extent and a natural investigative paradigm for developing and focussing biosecurity programs.

The impacts of exchange rate volatility on vegetable trade flows

Trade flows of commodities are generally affected by the principles of comparative advantage in a free trade. However, trade flows might be enhanced or distorted not only by various government interventions, but also by exchange rate fluctuations among others. This study applies a commodity-specific gravity model to selected vegetable trade flows among Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries to determine the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on the trade flows. Using the data from 1996 to 2002, the results show that, while the exchange rate uncertainty significantly reduces trade in the majority of commodity flows, there is evidence that both short- and long-term volatility have positive effect on trade flows of specific commodities. This study also tests the regional preferential trade agreements such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and the EU, and their different effects on commodities.

Determinants of trade in recyclable wastes: Evidence from commodity-based trade of waste and scrap

This paper examines factors that affect the trade of recyclable waste in both exporting and importing countries. To this end, we employ two important elements: first, we adopt a gravity model in our empirical methodology; second, we select five waste and scrap commodities and undertake estimations using commodity-level trade data. We demonstrate that, the higher the wage/per capita GDP/population of an importing country, the more recyclable wastes it imports. This result suggests that the demand for final goods and, accordingly, the demand for materials including recycled material, have strong effects on the import volume of recyclable waste. Moreover, this implies that the imports of a developing country from developed countries increase with expanding industrial activity and economic growth. We find no evidence for a pollution haven for wastes and recycling.

Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of plant pest invasions with human-mediated dispersal

Hierarchical Bayesian models can assimilate surveillance and ecological information to estimate both invasion extent and model parameters for invading plant pests spread by people. A reliability analysis framework that can accommodate multiple dispersal modes is developed to estimate human-mediated dispersal parameters for an invasive species. Uncertainty in the observation process is modelled by accounting for local natural spread and population growth within spatial units. Broad scale incursion dynamics are based on a mechanistic gravity model with a Weibull distribution modification to incorporate a local pest build-up phase. The model uses Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations to infer the probability of colonisation times for discrete spatial units and to estimate connectivity parameters between these units. The hierarchical Bayesian model with observational and ecological components is applied to a surveillance dataset for a spiralling whitefly (Aleurodicus dispersus) invasion in Queensland, Australia. The model structure provides a useful application that draws on surveillance data and ecological knowledge that can be used to manage the risk of pest movement.