A mechanism for the link between solar-irradiance variations and regional precipitation

Although the mechanisms of climatic fluctuations are not completely understood, changes in global solar irradiance show a link with regional precipitation. A proposed mechanism for this linkage begins with absorption of varying amounts of solar energy by tropical oceans, which may aid in development of ocean temperature anomalies. These anomalies are then transported by major ocean currents to locations where the stored energy is released into the atmosphere, altering pressure and moisture patterns that can ultimately affect regional precipitation. Correlation coefficients between annual averages of monthly differences in empirically modeled solar-irradiance variations and annual state-divisional precipitation values in the United States for 1950 to 1988 were computed with lag times of 0 to 7 years. The highest correlations (R=0.65) occur in the Pacific Northwest with a lag time of 4 years, which is about equal to the travel time of water within the Pacific Gyre from the western tropical Pacific Ocean to the Gulf of Alaska. With positive correlations, droughts coincide with periods of negative irradiance differences (dry, high-pressure development), and wet periods coincide with periods of positive differences (moist, low-pressure development).

Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. II. Different reconstructions of the total solar irradiance variation and dependence on response time scale

We have previously placed the solar contribution to recent global warming in context using observations and without recourse to climate models. It was shown that all solar forcings of climate have declined since 1987. The present paper extends that analysis to include the effects of the various time constants with which the Earth’s climate system might react to solar forcing. The solar input waveform over the past 100 years is defined using observed and inferred galactic cosmic ray fluxes, valid for either a direct effect of cosmic rays on climate or an effect via their known correlation with total solar irradiance (TSI), or for a combination of the two. The implications, and the relative merits, of the various TSI composite data series are discussed and independent tests reveal that the PMOD composite used in our previous paper is the most realistic. Use of the ACRIM composite, which shows a rise in TSI over recent decades, is shown to be inconsistent with most published evidence for solar influences on pre-industrial climate. The conclusions of our previous paper, that solar forcing has declined over the past 20 years while surface air temperatures have continued to rise, are shown to apply for the full range of potential time constants for the climate response to the variations in the solar forcings.

Dependence of global temperatures on atmospheric CO2 and solar irradiance

Changes in global average temperatures and of the seasonal cycle are strongly coupled to the concentration of atmospheric CO2. I estimate transfer functions from changes in atmospheric CO2 and from changes in solar irradiance to hemispheric temperatures that have been corrected for the effects of precession. They show that changes from CO2 over the last century are about three times larger than those from changes in solar irradiance. The increase in global average temperature during the last century is at least 20 times the SD of the residual temperature series left when the effects of CO2 and changes in solar irradiance are subtracted.

Modeling All-sky Global Solar Radiation Using MODIS Atmospheric Products: A Case Study in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The surface solar radiation (SSR) is of great importance to bio-chemical cycle and life activities. However, it is impossible to observe SSR directly over large areas especially for rugged surfaces such as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. This paper presented an improved parameterized model for predicting all-sky global solar radiation on rugged surfaces using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) atmospheric products and Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The global solar radiation was validated using 11 observations within the plateau. The correlation coefficients of daily data vary between 0.67-0.86, while those of the averages of 10-day data are between 0.79-0.97. The model indicates that the attenuation of SSR is mainly caused by cloud under cloudy sky, and terrain is an important factor influencing SSR over rugged surfaces under clear sky. A positive relationship can also be inferred between the SSR and slope. Compared with horizontal surfaces, the south-facing slope receives more radiation, followed by the west- and east-facing slopes with less SSR, and the SSR of the north-facing slope is the least.

Ratios of UV, PAR and NIR components to global solar radiation measured at Botucatu site in Brazil

The relationships between the four radiant fluxes are analyzed based on a 4 year data archive of hourly and daily global ultraviolet (I(UV)), photosynthetically active-PAR (I(PAR)), near infrared (I(NIR)) and broadband global solar radiation (I(G)) collected at Botucatu, Brazil. These data are used to establish both the fractions of spectral components to global solar radiation and the proposed linear regression models. Verification results indicated that the proposed regression models predict accurately the spectral radiant fluxes at least for the Brazilian environment. Finally, results obtained in this analysis agreed well with most published results in the literature. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling hourly and daily fractions of UV, PAR and NIR to global solar radiation under various sky conditions at Botucatu, Brazil

In this analysis, using available hourly and daily radiometric data performed at Botucatu, Brazil, several empirical models relating ultraviolet (UV), photosynthetically active (PAR) and near infrared (NIR) solar global components with solar global radiation (G) are established. These models are developed and discussed through clearness index K(T) (ratio of the global-to-extraterrestrial solar radiation). Results obtained reveal that the proposed empirical models predict hourly and daily values accurately. Finally. the overall analysis carried Out demonstrates that the sky conditions are more important in developing correlation models between the UV component and the global solar radiation. The linear regression models derived to estimate PAR and NIR components may be obtained without sky condition considerations within a maximum variation of 8%. In the case of UV, not taking into consideration the sky condition may cause a discrepancy of up to 18% for hourly values and 15% for daily values. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimativa da radiação solar global diária em função do potencial de energia solar na superfície do solo

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Numerical correction for the diffuse solar irradiance by the melo-escobedo shadowring measuring method

The present paper deals with numerical corrections factors proposed as a function of the clearness index in order to correct the diffuse solar irradiance measured with the Melo-Escobedo Shadowring Measuring Method (ME shadowring). The global irradiance was measured by an Eppley - PSP pyranometer ; direct normal irradiance by an Eppley-NIP pyrheliometer fitted to a ST-3 sun tracking device and the diffuse irradiance by an Eppley-PSP pyranometer fitted to a ME shadowring. The validations were performed by the MBE and RMSE statistical indicators. The results showed that the numerical correction factors were appropriate to correct the shadowring diffuse irradiance.

A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene ¹⁴C and CO₂ records: implications of data and model uncertainties

Radiocarbon production, solar activity, total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar-induced climate change are reconstructed for the Holocene (10 to 0 kyr BP), and TSI is predicted for the next centuries. The IntCal09/SHCal04 radiocarbon and ice core CO2 records, reconstructions of the geomagnetic dipole, and instrumental data of solar activity are applied in the Bern3D-LPJ, a fully featured Earth system model of intermediate complexity including a 3-D dynamic ocean, ocean sediments, and a dynamic vegetation model, and in formulations linking radiocarbon production, the solar modulation potential, and TSI. Uncertainties are assessed using Monte Carlo simulations and bounding scenarios. Transient climate simulations span the past 21 thousand years, thereby considering the time lags and uncertainties associated with the last glacial termination. Our carbon-cycle-based modern estimate of radiocarbon production of 1.7 atoms cm−2 s−1 is lower than previously reported for the cosmogenic nuclide production model by Masarik and Beer (2009) and is more in-line with Kovaltsov et al. (2012). In contrast to earlier studies, periods of high solar activity were quite common not only in recent millennia, but throughout the Holocene. Notable deviations compared to earlier reconstructions are also found on decadal to centennial timescales. We show that earlier Holocene reconstructions, not accounting for the interhemispheric gradients in radiocarbon, are biased low. Solar activity is during 28% of the time higher than the modern average (650 MeV), but the absolute values remain weakly constrained due to uncertainties in the normalisation of the solar modulation to instrumental data. A recently published solar activity–TSI relationship yields small changes in Holocene TSI of the order of 1 W m−2 with a Maunder Minimum irradiance reduction of 0.85 ± 0.16 W m−2. Related solar-induced variations in global mean surface air temperature are simulated to be within 0.1 K. Autoregressive modelling suggests a declining trend of solar activity in the 21st century towards average Holocene conditions.

On global solar dynamo simulations

Global dynamo simulations solving the equations of magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) have been a tool of astrophysicists who try to understand the magnetism of the Sun for several decades now. During recent years many fundamental issues in dynamo theory have been studied in detail by means of local numerical simulations that simplify the problem and allow the study of physical effects in isolation. Global simulations, however, continue to suffer from the age-old problem of too low spatial resolution, leading to much lower Reynolds numbers and scale separation than in the Sun. Reproducing the internal rotation of the Sun, which plays a crucual role in the dynamo process, has also turned out to be a very difficult problem. In the present paper the current status of global dynamo simulations of the Sun is reviewed. Emphasis is put on efforts to understand how the large-scale magnetic fields, i.e. whose length scale is greater than the scale of turbulence, are generated in the Sun. Some lessons from mean-field theory and local simulations are reviewed and their possible implications to the global models are discussed. Possible remedies to some of the current issues of the solar simulations are put forward.

Climate response to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and solar irradiance on the time scale of days to weeks

Recent studies show that fast climate response on time scales of less than a month can have important implications for long-term climate change. In this study, we investigate climate response on the time scale of days to weeks to a step-function quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 and contrast this with the response to a 4% increase in solar irradiance. Our simulations show that significant climate effects occur within days of a stepwise increase in both atmospheric CO2 content and solar irradiance. Over ocean, increased atmospheric CO2 warms the lower troposphere more than the surface, increasing atmospheric stability, moistening the boundary layer, and suppressing evaporation and precipitation. In contrast, over ocean, increased solar irradiance warms the lower troposphere to a much lesser extent, causing a much smaller change in evaporation and precipitation. Over land, both increased CO2 and increased solar irradiance cause rapid surface warming that tends to increase both evaporation and precipitation. However, the physiological effect of increased atmospheric CO2 on plant stomata reduces plant transpiration, drying the boundary layer and decreasing precipitation. This effect does not occur with increased solar irradiance. Therefore, differences in climatic effects from CO2 versus solar forcing are manifested within days after the forcing is imposed.

Cultivation of the brown alga Sargassum horneri: sexual reproduction and seedling production in tank culture under reduced solar irradiance in ambient temperature

As a large conspicuous intertidal brown alga, individuals of Sargassum horneri can reach a length of more than 7 m with a fresh weight of 3 kg along the coasts of the Eastern China Sea. The biomass of this alga as a vital component in coastal water ecology has been well documented. In recent years, a steady disappearance of the algal biomass along the once densely populated coastal areas of the Eastern China Sea has drawn attention in China. Efforts have been made to reconstruct the subtidal algal flora or even to grow the alga by use of long-lines. As part of the efforts to establish an efficient technique for producing seedlings of S. horneri, in this investigation a series of culture experiments were carried out in indoor raceway and rectangular tanks under reduced solar irradiance at ambient temperature in 2007-2008. The investigation demonstrated that: (1) sexual reproduction of S. horneri could be accelerated in elevated temperature and light climates, at least 3 months earlier than in the wild; (2) eggs of S. horneri had the potential to be fertilized up to 48 h, much longer than that of known related species; (3) suspension and fixed culture methods were both effective in growing the seedlings to the long-line cultivation stage; and (4) the life cycle of S. horneri in culture could be shortened to 4.5 months, thus establishing this alga as an appropriate model for investigating sexual reproduction in dieocious species of this genus.