Genetic Algorithms and Investment Strategies: A Global Perspective

The profitability of momentum portfolios in the equity markets is derived from the continuation of stock returns over medium time horizons. The empirical evidence of momentum, however, is significantly different across markets around the world. The purpose of this dissertation is to: 1) help global investors determine the optimal selection and holding periods for momentum portfolios, 2) evaluate the profitability of the optimized momentum portfolios in different time periods and market states, 3) assess the investment strategy profits after considering transaction costs, and 4) interpret momentum returns within the framework of prior studies on investors’ behavior. Improving on the traditional practice of selecting arbitrary selection and holding periods, a genetic algorithm (GA) is employed. The GA performs a thorough and structured search to capture the return continuations and reversals patterns of momentum portfolios. Three portfolio formation methods are used: price momentum, earnings momentum, and earnings and price momentum and a non-linear optimization procedure (GA). The focus is on common equity of the U.S. and a select number of countries, including Australia, France, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The findings suggest that the evolutionary algorithm increases the annualized profits of the U.S. momentum portfolios. However, the difference in mean returns is statistically significant only in certain cases. In addition, after considering transaction costs, both price and earnings and price momentum portfolios do not appear to generate abnormal returns. Positive risk-adjusted returns net of trading costs are documented solely during “up” markets for a portfolio long in prior winners only. The results on the international momentum effects indicate that the GA improves the momentum returns by 2 to 5% on an annual basis. In addition, the relation between momentum returns and exchange rate appreciation/depreciation is examined. The currency appreciation does not appear to influence significantly momentum profits. Further, the influence of the market state on momentum returns is not uniform across the countries considered. The implications of the above findings are discussed with a focus on the practical aspects of momentum investing, both in the U.S. and globally.

Information technology and business value in a global economy : do information technology investments pay off in a developing economy?

Understanding the business value of IT has mostly been studied in developed countries, but because most investment in developing countries is derived from external sources, the influence of that investment on business value is likely to be different. We test this notion using a two-layer model. We examine the impact of IT investments on firm processes, and the relationship of these processes to firm performance in a developing country. Our findings suggest that investment in different areas of IT positively relates to improvements in intermediate business processes and these intermediate business processes positively relate to the overall financial performance of firms in a developing country.

Prioritizing land and sea conservation investments to protect coral reefs

Background: Coral reefs have exceptional biodiversity, support the livelihoods of millions of people, and are threatened by multiple human activities on land (e.g. farming) and in the sea (e.g. overfishing). Most conservation efforts occur at local scales and, when effective, can increase the resilience of coral reefs to global threats such as climate change (e.g. warming water and ocean acidification). Limited resources for conservation require that we efficiently prioritize where and how to best sustain coral reef ecosystems.----- ----- Methodology/Principal Findings: Here we develop the first prioritization approach that can guide regional-scale conservation investments in land-and sea-based conservation actions that cost-effectively mitigate threats to coral reefs, and apply it to the Coral Triangle, an area of significant global attention and funding. Using information on threats to marine ecosystems, effectiveness of management actions at abating threats, and the management and opportunity costs of actions, we calculate the rate of return on investment in two conservation actions in sixteen ecoregions. We discover that marine conservation almost always trumps terrestrial conservation within any ecoregion, but terrestrial conservation in one ecoregion can be a better investment than marine conservation in another. We show how these results could be used to allocate a limited budget for conservation and compare them to priorities based on individual criteria.----- ----- Conclusions/Significance: Previous prioritization approaches do not consider both land and sea-based threats or the socioeconomic costs of conserving coral reefs. A simple and transparent approach like ours is essential to support effective coral reef conservation decisions in a large and diverse region like the Coral Triangle, but can be applied at any scale and to other marine ecosystems.

Reviewing the impact of the 2008/2009 global financial crisis (GFC) on international property markets and property professions

The global financial crisis that impacted on all world economies throughout 2008 and 2009. This impact has not been confined to the finance industries but has had a direct and indirect impact on the property industry worldwide from both an ownership and investment perspective. Property markets have experienced various levels of impact from this event, but universally the greatest impact has been on the traditional commercial and industrial property sectors from the investor perspective, with investment and superannuation funds reporting significant declines in the reported value of these investments. Despite the very direct impact of these declining property markets, the GFC has also had a very significant indirect impact on the various property professions and how these professions are now operating in this declining property market. Of particular interest is the comparison of the property market forecasts in late 2007 to the actual results in 2008/2009.

The emerging framework of cross-border insolvency in and around Australia : Saad Investments, Japan Airlines and Lehman Brothers – part one

Recent decades have witnessed a global acceleration of legislative and private sector initiatives to deal with Cross-Border insolvency. Legislative institutions include the various national implementations of the Model Law on Cross-Border Insolvency (Model Law) published by the United Nations Commission on International Trade (UNCITRAL).3 Private mechanisms include Cross-Border protocols developed and utilised by insolvency professionals and their advisers (often with the imprimatur of the judiciary), on both general and ad hoc bases. The Asia Pacific region has not escaped the effect of those developments, and the economic turmoil of the past few years has provided an early test for some of the emerging initiatives in that region. This two-part article explores the operation of those institutions through the medium of three recent cases.

The emerging framework of cross-border insolvency in and around Australia : Saad Investments, Japan Airlines and Lehman Brothers – Part Two

Recent decades have witnessed a global acceleration of legislative and private sector initiatives to deal with Cross-Border insolvency. Legislative institutions include the various national implementations of the Model Law on Cross-Border Insolvency (Model Law) published by the United Nations Commission on International Trade (UNCITRAL).3 Private mechanisms include Cross-Border protocols developed and utilised by insolvency professionals and their advisers (often with the imprimatur of the judiciary), on both general and ad hoc bases. The Asia Pacific region has not escaped the effect of those developments, and the economic turmoil of the past few years has provided an early test for some of the emerging initiatives in that region. This two-part article explores the operation of those institutions through the medium of three recent cases.

Linking Reduced Deforestation and a Global Carbon Market: Impacts on Costs, Financial Flows, and Technological Innovation

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Buyer-supplier partnerships during product design and development in the global automotive sector: Who invests, in what and when?

This paper explores the concept of partnerships between buyers and suppliers in the global automotive sector during product design and development. Partnerships are often the goal in a shift away from adversarial arms-length relationships. The objective of this research is to provide empirical evidence to explain the levels of mutual investment expected and achieved in partnerships from both buyer and supplier perspectives. During this research, 25 employees from 12 global supplier organisations who were in partnership with a specific vehicle manufacturer (VM) were interviewed. Twelve employees from this VM were also interviewed. The research showed the differences between partnerships and non-partnerships and the disparities in the expectations of investment from each partner. For suppliers and buyers to get the most out of partnerships, clear expectations and investments needed over time should be understood and agreed early in the relationship. © 2009 Elsevier B.V.All rights reserved.

mHealth and global mental health: still waiting for the mH2 wedding?

BACKGROUND: Two phenomena have become increasingly visible over the past decade: the significant global burden of disease arising from mental illness and the rapid acceleration of mobile phone usage in poorer countries. Mental ill-health accounts for a significant proportion of global disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years lived with disability (YLDs), especially in poorer countries where a number of factors combine to exacerbate issues of undertreatment. Yet poorer countries have also witnessed significant investments in, and dramatic expansions of, mobile coverage and usage over the past decade. DEBATE: The conjunction of high levels of mental illness and high levels of mobile phone usage in poorer countries highlights the potential for "mH(2)" interventions--i.e. mHealth (mobile technology-based) mental health interventions--to tackle global mental health challenges. However, global mental health movements and initiatives have yet to engage fully with this potential, partly because of scepticism towards technological solutions in general and partly because existing mH(2) projects in mental health have often taken place in a fragmented, narrowly-focused, and small-scale manner. We argue for a deeper and more sustained engagement with mobile phone technology in the global mental health context, and outline the possible shape of an integrated mH(2) platform for the diagnosis, treatment, and monitoring of mental health. SUMMARY: Existing and developing mH(2) technologies represent an underutilised resource in global mental health. If development, evaluation, and implementation challenges are overcome, an integrated mH2 platform would make significant contributions to mental healthcare in multiple settings and contexts.

Path-Dependency, Stocks, Switching Points, Flows: Reflections on Long-term Global Change and Local Opportunities

This paper examines the possibilities for peripheral localities to achieve upward mobility in the world-system by “hooking on” to larger processes of world-system accumulation. In particular, is it possible for economies that are dependent on foreign investment to receive a flow of investments that is high enough to overcome the negative impacts of a high stock of foreign investment, thus enabling them to cross a threshold and achieve upward mobility in the world-system? An analysis of therecent experience of the southern Irish “Celtic Tiger” economy during 1990-2000 indicates that such an upward movement is possible on the basis of massive foreign investment inflows. On closer examination, however, the Irish-type model appears to be highly deficient, because a high proportion of growth is illusionary and also on grounds of social desirability and lack of generalizability.

'Mining money': science, legal technologies & working the borderlands of global finance

This paper explores the roles of science and market devices in the commodification of ‘nature’ and the configuration of flows of speculative capital. It focuses on mineral prospecting and the market for shares in ‘junior’ mining companies. In recent years these companies have expanded the reach of their exploration activities overseas, taking advantage of innovations in exploration methodologies and the liberalisation of fiscal and property regimes in ‘emerging’ mineral rich developing countries. Recent literature has explored how the reconfiguration of notions of ‘risk’ has structured the uneven distribution of rents. It is increasingly evident that neoliberal framing of environmental, political, social and economic risks has set in motion overflows that multinational mining capital had not bargained for (e.g. nationalisation, violence and political resistance). However, the role of ‘geological risk’ in animating flows of mining finance is often assumed as a ‘technical’ given. Yet geological knowledge claims, translated locally, designed to travel globally, assemble heterogeneous elements within distanciated regimes of metrology, valuation and commodity production. This paper explores how knowledge of nature is enrolled within systems of property relations, focusing on the genealogy of the knowledge practices that animate contemporary circuits of speculative mining finance. It argues that the financing of mineral prospecting mobilises pragmatic and situated forms of knowledge rather than actuarially driven calculations that promise predictability. A Canadian public enquiry struck in the wake of scandal associated with Bre-X’s prospecting activities in Indonesia is used to glean insights into the ways in which the construction of a system of public warrant to underpin financial speculation is predicated upon particular subjectivities and the outworking of everyday practices and struggles over ‘value’. Reflection on practical investments in processes of standardisation, rituals of verification and systems of accreditation reveal much about how the materiality of things shape the ways in which regional and global financial circuits are integrated, selectively transforming existing social relations and forms of knowledge production.

Evolución del derecho internacional de inversiones: hacia un régimen global estable (Tema Central)

En los últimos años, los flujos de inversión han crecido a nivel mundial y junto con estos se ha producido un desarrollo normativo que comprende la creación de más de 3.000 tratados bilaterales y regionales. Estos tratados comparten similares estándares sustantivos de trato, así como procedimientos similares de solución de controversias. Por esta razón, se ha conceptualizado a este conjunto de normas en el derecho internacional como un régimen emergente global de inversiones, el cual está generando constantes tensiones entre estados. La creación de este régimen emergente no es espontánea, ya que proviene de un complejo proceso de evolución que se desarrolla a través de la historia del derecho internacional. El presente trabajo analiza la historia y evolución del Derecho Internacional de Inversiones, e identifica los puntos clave que deben ser considerados en la construcción de una regulación integral de la inversión extranjera.

The socioeconomics of food crop production and climate change vulnerability: a global scale quantitative analysis of how grain crops are sensitive to drought

Many studies warn that climate change may undermine global food security. Much work on this topic focuses on modelling crop-weather interactions but these models do not generally account for the ways in which socio-economic factors influence how harvests are affected by weather. To address this gap, this paper uses a quantitative harvest vulnerability index based on annual soil moisture and grain production data as the dependent variables in a Linear Mixed Effects model with national scale socio-economic data as independent variables for the period 1990-2005. Results show that rice, wheat and maize production in middle income countries were especially vulnerable to droughts. By contrast, harvests in countries with higher investments in agriculture (e.g higher amounts of fertilizer use) were less vulnerable to drought. In terms of differences between the world's major grain crops, factors that made rice and wheat crops vulnerable to drought were quite consistent, whilst those of maize crops varied considerably depending on the type of region. This is likely due to the fact that maize is produced under very different conditions worldwide. One recommendation for reducing drought vulnerability risks is coordinated development and adaptation policies, including institutional support that enables farmers to take proactive action.

Economic development and growth in West Africa: a multiple case study analysis of sovereign wealth funds’ investments and performance

Durante a recente crise da dívida soberana europeia, os fundos soberanos demonstraram seu peso na esfera financeira global. Contribuíram para salvar o sistema financeiro dos países desenvolvidos, distribuindo créditos que as entidades financeiras tradicionais do Norte não podiam mais providenciar. Em 2012, os ativos totais desses fundos atingiram USD 4.620 bilhões, comparado aos USD 3.355 bilhões de antes da crise, no final de 2007 (Preqin, 2012). Sendo quase todos criados por economias em desenvolvimento ou subdesenvolvidas, os fundos soberanos podem então ser vistos como o símbolo de um recente reequilíbrio do poder a favor desses países (Santiso, 2008). Além disso, em um futuro próximo, espera-se que os fundos soberanos afastem-se dos países desenvolvidos para investir mais em países em desenvolvimento. Nesse contexto, os países africanos estão cada vez mais alvos de investimentos dos fundos (Triki & Faye, 2011). O estudo subjacente analisa dois fundos, o IFC ALAC e o Mubadala Development Company, para entender como, de acordo com as percepções dos seus gestores, os fundos soberanos podem ajudar no desenvolvimento dos países beneficiários. Mais precisamente, trata-se definir, através de um estudo de casos múltiplos, quais são os mecanismos pelos quais os fundos soberanos podem impactar o desenvolvimento da África ocidental. Os resultados sugerem que, segundo os gestores, os fundos soberanos podem desempenhar um papel significativo no desenvolvimento dos países beneficiários. Eles investem em alguns setores-chave da economia (bancos, infraestruturas etc.), criando condições favoráveis ao desenvolvimento local. Além disso, através de um efeito multiplicador, os investimentos dos fundos soberanos alavancam novos investimentos do setor privado local ou global, fortalecendo o tecido industrial e produtivo do país beneficiário. Porém, parece que as empresas beneficiárias não ajudam nas transferências de conhecimento e de tecnologia, embora sejam essenciais para o desenvolvimento econômico, e se limitam a programas de treinamento específico e de RSE. Além disso, apesar dos investimentos de fundos soberanos impulsionarem o crescimento da região, eles também podem agravar a dependência dessas economias à exportação de commodities. Finalmente, os impactos positivos dos fundos soberanos sobre a economia regional são muitas vezes reduzidos devido a conflitos políticos e barreiras estruturais exigindo reformas profundas e de longo prazo.