Detecting contaminated birthdates using generalized additive models.

Erroneous patient birthdates are common in health databases. Detection of these errors usually involves manual verification, which can be resource intensive and impractical. By identifying a frequent manifestation of birthdate errors, this paper presents a principled and statistically driven procedure to identify erroneous patient birthdates.

Modelling grouped survival times in toxicological studies using generalized additive models

A method for combining a proportional-hazards survival time model with a bioassay model where the log-hazard function is modelled as a linear or smoothing spline function of log-concentration combined with a smoothing spline function of time is described. The combined model is fitted to mortality numbers, resulting from survival times that are grouped due to a common set of observation times, using Generalized Additive Models (GAMs). The GAM fits mortalities as conditional binomials using an approximation to the log of the integral of the hazard function and is implemented using freely-available, general software for fitting GAMs. Extensions of the GAM are described to allow random effects to be fitted and to allow for time-varying concentrations by replacing time with a calibrated cumulative exposure variable with calibration parameter estimated using profile likelihood. The models are demonstrated using data from a studies of a marine and a, previously published, freshwater taxa. The marine study involved two replicate bioassays of the effect of zinc exposure on survival of an Antarctic amphipod, Orchomenella pinguides. The other example modelled survival of the daphnid, Daphnia magna, exposed to potassium dichromate and was fitted by both the GAM and the process-based DEBtox model. The GAM fitted with a cubic regression spline in time gave a 61 % improvement in fit to the daphnid data compared to DEBtox due to a non-monotonic hazard function. A simulation study using each of these hazard functions as operating models demonstrated that the GAM is overall more accurate in recovering lethal concentration values across the range of forms of the underlying hazard function compared to DEBtox and standard multiple endpoint probit analyses.

Transferability of Regional Permafrost Disturbance Susceptibility Modelling Using Generalized Linear and Generalized Additive Models

To effectively assess and mitigate risk of permafrost disturbance, disturbance-p rone areas can be predicted through the application of susceptibility models. In this study we developed regional susceptibility models for permafrost disturbances using a field disturbance inventory to test the transferability of the model to a broader region in the Canadian High Arctic. Resulting maps of susceptibility were then used to explore the effect of terrain variables on the occurrence of disturbances within this region. To account for a large range of landscape charac- teristics, the model was calibrated using two locations: Sabine Peninsula, Melville Island, NU, and Fosheim Pen- insula, Ellesmere Island, NU. Spatial patterns of disturbance were predicted with a generalized linear model (GLM) and generalized additive model (GAM), each calibrated using disturbed and randomized undisturbed lo- cations from both locations and GIS-derived terrain predictor variables including slope, potential incoming solar radiation, wetness index, topographic position index, elevation, and distance to water. Each model was validated for the Sabine and Fosheim Peninsulas using independent data sets while the transferability of the model to an independent site was assessed at Cape Bounty, Melville Island, NU. The regional GLM and GAM validated well for both calibration sites (Sabine and Fosheim) with the area under the receiver operating curves (AUROC) N 0.79. Both models were applied directly to Cape Bounty without calibration and validated equally with AUROC's of 0.76; however, each model predicted disturbed and undisturbed samples differently. Addition- ally, the sensitivity of the transferred model was assessed using data sets with different sample sizes. Results in- dicated that models based on larger sample sizes transferred more consistently and captured the variability within the terrain attributes in the respective study areas. Terrain attributes associated with the initiation of dis- turbances were similar regardless of the location. Disturbances commonly occurred on slopes between 4 and 15°, below Holocene marine limit, and in areas with low potential incoming solar radiation

Transferability of Regional Permafrost Disturbance Susceptibility Modelling Using Generalized Linear and Generalized Additive Models

To effectively assess and mitigate risk of permafrost disturbance, disturbance-p rone areas can be predicted through the application of susceptibility models. In this study we developed regional susceptibility models for permafrost disturbances using a field disturbance inventory to test the transferability of the model to a broader region in the Canadian High Arctic. Resulting maps of susceptibility were then used to explore the effect of terrain variables on the occurrence of disturbances within this region. To account for a large range of landscape charac- teristics, the model was calibrated using two locations: Sabine Peninsula, Melville Island, NU, and Fosheim Pen- insula, Ellesmere Island, NU. Spatial patterns of disturbance were predicted with a generalized linear model (GLM) and generalized additive model (GAM), each calibrated using disturbed and randomized undisturbed lo- cations from both locations and GIS-derived terrain predictor variables including slope, potential incoming solar radiation, wetness index, topographic position index, elevation, and distance to water. Each model was validated for the Sabine and Fosheim Peninsulas using independent data sets while the transferability of the model to an independent site was assessed at Cape Bounty, Melville Island, NU. The regional GLM and GAM validated well for both calibration sites (Sabine and Fosheim) with the area under the receiver operating curves (AUROC) N 0.79. Both models were applied directly to Cape Bounty without calibration and validated equally with AUROC's of 0.76; however, each model predicted disturbed and undisturbed samples differently. Addition- ally, the sensitivity of the transferred model was assessed using data sets with different sample sizes. Results in- dicated that models based on larger sample sizes transferred more consistently and captured the variability within the terrain attributes in the respective study areas. Terrain attributes associated with the initiation of dis- turbances were similar regardless of the location. Disturbances commonly occurred on slopes between 4 and 15°, below Holocene marine limit, and in areas with low potential incoming solar radiation

Modeling continuous self-report measures of perceived emotion using generalized additive mixed models

Emotion research has long been dominated by the “standard method” of displaying posed or acted static images of facial expressions of emotion. While this method has been useful it is unable to investigate the dynamic nature of emotion expression. Although continuous self-report traces have enabled the measurement of dynamic expressions of emotion, a consensus has not been reached on the correct statistical techniques that permit inferences to be made with such measures. We propose Generalized Additive Models and Generalized Additive Mixed Models as techniques that can account for the dynamic nature of such continuous measures. These models allow us to hold constant shared components of responses that are due to perceived emotion across time, while enabling inference concerning linear differences between groups. The mixed model GAMM approach is preferred as it can account for autocorrelation in time series data and allows emotion decoding participants to be modelled as random effects. To increase confidence in linear differences we assess the methods that address interactions between categorical variables and dynamic changes over time. In addition we provide comments on the use of Generalized Additive Models to assess the effect size of shared perceived emotion and discuss sample sizes. Finally we address additional uses, the inference of feature detection, continuous variable interactions, and measurement of ambiguity.

Describing long-term trends in precipitation using generalized additive models

With the current concern over climate change, descriptions of how rainfall patterns are changing over time can be useful. Observations of daily rainfall data over the last few decades provide information on these trends. Generalized linear models are typically used to model patterns in the occurrence and intensity of rainfall. These models describe rainfall patterns for an average year but are more limited when describing long-term trends, particularly when these are potentially non-linear. Generalized additive models (GAMS) provide a framework for modelling non-linear relationships by fitting smooth functions to the data. This paper describes how GAMS can extend the flexibility of models to describe seasonal patterns and long-term trends in the occurrence and intensity of daily rainfall using data from Mauritius from 1962 to 2001. Smoothed estimates from the models provide useful graphical descriptions of changing rainfall patterns over the last 40 years at this location. GAMS are particularly helpful when exploring non-linear relationships in the data. Care is needed to ensure the choice of smooth functions is appropriate for the data and modelling objectives. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Response of Catch-Per-Unit-Effort to Spatial and Environmental Factors: an Exploratory Data Analysis Using Generalized Additive Models

Understanding spatial distributions and how environmental conditions influence catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) is important for increased fishing efficiency and sustainable fisheries management. This study investigated the relationship between CPUE, spatial factors, temperature, and depth using generalized additive models. Combinations of factors, and not one single factor, were frequently included in the best model. Parameters which best described CPUE varied by geographic region. The amount of variance, or deviance, explained by the best models ranged from a low of 29% (halibut, Charlotte region) to a high of 94% (sablefish, Charlotte region). Depth, latitude, and longitude influenced most species in several regions. On the broad geographic scale, depth was associated with CPUE for every species, except dogfish. Latitude and longitude influenced most species, except halibut (Areas 4 A/D), sablefish, and cod. Temperature was important for describing distributions of halibut in Alaska, arrowtooth flounder in British Columbia, dogfish, Alaska skate, and Aleutian skate. The species-habitat relationships revealed in this study can be used to create improved fishing and management strategies.

An additive model for spatio-temporal smoothing of cancer mortality rates

In this paper, a Bayesian hierarchical model is used to anaylze the female breast cancer mortality rates for the State of Missouri from 1969 through 2001. The logit transformations of the mortality rates are assumed to be linear over the time with additive spatial and age effects as intercepts and slopes. Objective priors of the hierarchical model are explored. The Bayesian estimates are quite robustness in terms change of the hyperparamaters. The spatial correlations are appeared in both intercepts and slopes.

On a generalized dynamic model of bi-state social interaction processes

A non-linear model, construed as a generalized version of the models put forth earlier for the study of bi-state social interaction processes, is proposed in this study. The feasibility of deriving the dynamics of such processes is demonstrated by establishing equivalence between the non-linear model and a higher order linear model.

On the generalized continuum model of dipolar solvation dynamics

The continuum model of dipolar solvation dynamics is reviewed. The effects of non-spherical molecular shapes, of non-Debye dielectric relaxation of the polar solvent and of dielectric inhomogeneity of the solvent around the solute dipole are investigated. Several new theoretical results are presented. It is found that our generalized continuum model, which takes into account the dielectric inhomogeneity of the surrounding solvent, provides a description of solvation dynamics consistent with recent experimental results.

A denotational semantics for the generalized ER model and a simple ER algebra

The recent spurt of research activities in Entity-Relationship Approach to databases calls for a close scrutiny of the semantics of the underlying Entity-Relationship models, data manipulation languages, data definition languages, etc. For reasons well known, it is very desirable and sometimes imperative to give formal description of the semantics. In this paper, we consider a specific ER model, the generalized Entity-Relationship model (without attributes on relationships) and give denotational semantics for the model as well as a simple ER algebra based on the model. Our formalism is based on the Vienna Development Method—the meta language (VDM). We also discuss the salient features of the given semantics in detail and suggest directions for further work.

Confinement-deconfinement transition and spin correlations in a generalized Kitaev model

We present a spin model, namely, the Kitaev model augmented by a loop term and perturbed by an Ising Hamiltonian, and show that it exhibits both confinement-deconfinement transitions from spin liquid to antiferromagnetic/spin-chain/ferromagnetic phases and topological quantum phase transitions between gapped and gapless spin-liquid phases. We develop a fermionic resonating-valence-bonds (RVB) mean-field theory to chart out the phase diagram of the model and estimate the stability of its spin-liquid phases, which might be relevant for attempts to realize the model in optical lattices and other spin systems. We present an analytical mean-field theory to study the confinement-deconfinement transition for large coefficient of the loop term and show that this transition is first order within such mean-field analysis in this limit. We also conjecture that in some other regimes, the confinement-deconfinement transitions in the model, predicted to be first order within the mean-field theory, may become second order via a defect condensation mechanism. Finally, we present a general classification of the perturbations to the Kitaev model on the basis of their effect on it's spin correlation functions and derive a necessary and sufficient condition, within the regime of validity of perturbation theory, for the spin correlators to exhibit a long-ranged power-law behavior in the presence of such perturbations. Our results reproduce those of Tikhonov et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 106, 067203 (2011)] as a special case.

The generalized Onsager model for the secondary flow in a high-speed rotating cylinder

The generalizations of the Onsager model for the radial boundary layer and the Carrier-Maslen model for the end-cap axial boundary layer in a high-speed rotating cylinder are formulated for studying the secondary gas flow due to wall heating and due to insertion of mass, momentum and energy into the cylinder. The generalizations have wider applicability than the original Onsager and Carrier-Maslen models, because they are not restricted to the limit A >> 1, though they are restricted to the limit R e >> 1 and a high-aspect-ratio cylinder whose length/diameter ratio is large. Here, the stratification parameter A = root m Omega(2)R(2)/2k(B)T). This parameter A is the ratio of the peripheral speed, Omega R, to the most probable molecular speed, root 2k(B)T/m, the Reynolds number Re = rho w Omega R(2)/mu, where m is the molecular mass, Omega and R are the rotational speed and radius of the cylinder, k(B) is the Boltzmann constant, T is the gas temperature, rho(w) is the gas density at wall, and mu is the gas viscosity. In the case of wall forcing, analytical solutions are obtained for the sixth-order generalized Onsager equations for the master potential, and for the fourth-order generalized Carrier-Maslen equation for the velocity potential. For the case of mass/momentum/energy insertion into the flow, the separation-of-variables procedure is used, and the appropriate homogeneous boundary conditions are specified so that the linear operators in the axial and radial directions are self-adjoint. The discrete eigenvalues and eigenfunctions of the linear operators (sixth-order and second-order in the radial and axial directions for the Onsager equation, and fourth-order and second-order in the axial and radial directions for the Carrier-Maslen equation) are determined. These solutions are compared with direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) simulations. The comparison reveals that the boundary conditions in the simulations and analysis have to be matched with care. The commonly used `diffuse reflection' boundary conditions at solid walls in DSMC simulations result in a non-zero slip velocity as well as a `temperature slip' (gas temperature at the wall is different from wall temperature). These have to be incorporated in the analysis in order to make quantitative predictions. In the case of mass/momentum/energy sources within the flow, it is necessary to ensure that the homogeneous boundary conditions are accurately satisfied in the simulations. When these precautions are taken, there is excellent agreement between analysis and simulations, to within 10 %, even when the stratification parameter is as low as 0.707, the Reynolds number is as low as 100 and the aspect ratio (length/diameter) of the cylinder is as low as 2, and the secondary flow velocity is as high as 0.2 times the maximum base flow velocity. The predictions of the generalized models are also significantly better than those of the original Onsager and Carrier-Maslen models, which are restricted to thin boundary layers in the limit of high stratification parameter.

The generalized Onsager model for a binary gas mixture

The Onsager model for the secondary flow field in a high-speed rotating cylinder is extended to incorporate the difference in mass of the two species in a binary gas mixture. The base flow is an isothermal solid-body rotation in which there is a balance between the radial pressure gradient and the centrifugal force density for each species. Explicit expressions for the radial variation of the pressure, mass/mole fractions, and from these the radial variation of the viscosity, thermal conductivity and diffusion coefficient, are derived, and these are used in the computation of the secondary flow. For the secondary flow, the mass, momentum and energy equations in axisymmetric coordinates are expanded in an asymptotic series in a parameter epsilon = (Delta m/m(av)), where Delta m is the difference in the molecular masses of the two species, and the average molecular mass m(av) is defined as m(av) = (rho(w1)m(1) + rho(w2)m(2))/rho(w), where rho(w1) and rho(w2) are the mass densities of the two species at the wall, and rho(w) = rho(w1) + rho(w2). The equation for the master potential and the boundary conditions are derived correct to O(epsilon(2)). The leading-order equation for the master potential contains a self-adjoint sixth-order operator in the radial direction, which is different from the generalized Onsager model (Pradhan & Kumaran, J. Fluid Mech., vol. 686, 2011, pp. 109-159), since the species mass difference is included in the computation of the density, viscosity and thermal conductivity in the base state. This is solved, subject to boundary conditions, to obtain the leading approximation for the secondary flow, followed by a solution of the diffusion equation for the leading correction to the species mole fractions. The O(epsilon) and O(epsilon(2)) equations contain inhomogeneous terms that depend on the lower-order solutions, and these are solved in a hierarchical manner to obtain the O(epsilon) and O(epsilon(2)) corrections to the master potential. A similar hierarchical procedure is used for the Carrier-Maslen model for the end-cap secondary flow. The results of the Onsager hierarchy, up to O(epsilon(2)), are compared with the results of direct simulation Monte Carlo simulations for a binary hard-sphere gas mixture for secondary flow due to a wall temperature gradient, inflow/outflow of gas along the axis, as well as mass and momentum sources in the flow. There is excellent agreement between the solutions for the secondary flow correct to O(epsilon(2)) and the simulations, to within 15 %, even at a Reynolds number as low as 100, and length/diameter ratio as low as 2, for a low stratification parameter A of 0.707, and when the secondary flow velocity is as high as 0.2 times the maximum base flow velocity, and the ratio 2 Delta m/(m(1) + m(2)) is as high as 0.5. Here, the Reynolds number Re = rho(w)Omega R-2/mu, the stratification parameter A = root m Omega R-2(2)/(2k(B)T), R and Omega are the cylinder radius and angular velocity, m is the molecular mass, rho(w) is the wall density, mu is the viscosity and T is the temperature. The leading-order solutions do capture the qualitative trends, but are not in quantitative agreement.