Future predictions of body mass index and overweight prevalence in Australia, 2005-2025

To predict current and future body mass index (BMI) and prevalence of overweight and obesity in Australian children and adults based on sex, age and year of birth (cohort). These predictions are needed for population health planning and evaluation. Data were drawn from 11 cross-sectional national or state population surveys conducted in Australia between 1969 and 2004. These included representative population samples of children (n= 27,635) and adults (n= 43,447) aged 5 years or older with measured height and weight data. Multiple linear regression analyses of measured log-transformed BMI data were conducted to determine the independent effects of age and year of birth (cohort) on ln(BMI) for males and females, respectively. Regression coefficients for cohort obtained from these analyses were applied to the National Nutrition Survey 1995 data set to predict mean BMI and prevalence of overweight (BMI 25-29.99 kg/m(2)) and obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m(2)) in 2005, 2015 and 2025. Based on past trends, BMI is predicted to continue to increase for both males and females and across the age span. This would result in increases in the prevalence of overweight and obesity of between 0.4 and 0.8% per year, such that by 2025 around one-third of 5-19 year olds will be overweight or obese as will 83% of males and 75% of females aged 20 years and over. The increases in prevalence and mean BMI predicted in this study will have significant impacts on disease burden, healthcare costs and need for prevention and treatment programmes.

Planning and implementing trajectories for autonomous underwater vehicles to track evolving ocean processes based on predictions from a regional ocean model

Path planning and trajectory design for autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) is of great importance to the oceanographic research community because automated data collection is becoming more prevalent. Intelligent planning is required to maneuver a vehicle to high-valued locations to perform data collection. In this paper, we present algorithms that determine paths for AUVs to track evolving features of interest in the ocean by considering the output of predictive ocean models. While traversing the computed path, the vehicle provides near-real-time, in situ measurements back to the model, with the intent to increase the skill of future predictions in the local region. The results presented here extend prelim- inary developments of the path planning portion of an end-to-end autonomous prediction and tasking system for aquatic, mobile sensor networks. This extension is the incorporation of multiple vehicles to track the centroid and the boundary of the extent of a feature of interest. Similar algorithms to those presented here are under development to consider additional locations for multiple types of features. The primary focus here is on algorithm development utilizing model predictions to assist in solving the motion planning problem of steering an AUV to high-valued locations, with respect to the data desired. We discuss the design technique to generate the paths, present simulation results and provide experimental data from field deployments for tracking dynamic features by use of an AUV in the Southern California coastal ocean.

Trajectory design for autonomous underwater vehicles based on ocean model predictions for feature tracking

Trajectory design for Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) is of great importance to the oceanographic research community. Intelligent planning is required to maneuver a vehicle to high-valued locations for data collection. We consider the use of ocean model predictions to determine the locations to be visited by an AUV, which then provides near-real time, in situ measurements back to the model to increase the skill of future predictions. The motion planning problem of steering the vehicle between the computed waypoints is not considered here. Our focus is on the algorithm to determine relevant points of interest for a chosen oceanographic feature. This represents a first approach to an end to end autonomous prediction and tasking system for aquatic, mobile sensor networks. We design a sampling plan and present experimental results with AUV retasking in the Southern California Bight (SCB) off the coast of Los Angeles.

Reducing the future threat from (liver) fluke: realistic prospect or quixotic fantasy?

The liver fluke remains an economically significant parasite of livestock and is emerging as an important zoonotic infection of humans. The incidence of the disease has increased in the last few years, as a possible consequence of changes to the World's climate. Future predictions suggest that this trend is likely to continue. Allied to the changing pattern of disease, reports of resistance to triclabendazole (TCBZ) have appeared in the literature, although they do not all represent genuine cases of resistance. Nevertheless, any reports of resistance are a concern, because triclabendazole is the only drug that has high activity against the migratory and damaging juvenile stages of infection. How to deal with the twin problems (of increasing incidence and drug resistance) is the overall theme of the session on “Trematodes: Fasciola hepatica epidemiology and control” and of this review to introduce the session.

Greater knowledge of fluke epidemiology and population genetics will highlight those regions where surveillance is most required and indicate how quickly resistant populations of fluke may arise. Models of disease risk are becoming increasingly sophisticated and precise, with more refined data analysis programmes and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) data. Recent improvements have been made in our understanding of the action of triclabendazole and the ways in which flukes have become resistant to it. While microtubules are the most likely target for drug action, tubulin mutations do not seem to be involved in the resistance mechanism. Rather, upregulation of drug uptake and metabolism processes appear to be more important and the data relating to them will be discussed. The information may help in the design of new treatment strategies or pinpoint potential molecular markers for monitoring fluke populations. Advances in the identification of novel targets for drugs and vaccines will be made by the various “-omics” technologies that are now being applied to Fasciola. A major area of concern in the current control of fasciolosis is the lack of reliable tests for the diagnosis of drug (TCBZ) resistance. This has led to inaccurate reports of resistance, which is hindering successful disease management, as farmers may be encouraged to switch to less effective drugs. Progress with the development of a number of new diagnostic tests will be reviewed.

Autonomous underwater vehicle trajectory design coupled with predictive ocean models : a case study

Data collection using Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) is increasing in importance within the oceano- graphic research community. Contrary to traditional moored or static platforms, mobile sensors require intelligent planning strategies to manoeuvre through the ocean. However, the ability to navigate to high-value locations and collect data with specific scientific merit is worth the planning efforts. In this study, we examine the use of ocean model predictions to determine the locations to be visited by an AUV, and aid in planning the trajectory that the vehicle executes during the sampling mission. The objectives are: a) to provide near-real time, in situ measurements to a large-scale ocean model to increase the skill of future predictions, and b) to utilize ocean model predictions as a component in an end-to-end autonomous prediction and tasking system for aquatic, mobile sensor networks. We present an algorithm designed to generate paths for AUVs to track a dynamically evolving ocean feature utilizing ocean model predictions. This builds on previous work in this area by incorporating the predicted current velocities into the path planning to assist in solving the 3-D motion planning problem of steering an AUV between two selected locations. We present simulation results for tracking a fresh water plume by use of our algorithm. Additionally, we present experimental results from field trials that test the skill of the model used as well as the incorporation of the model predictions into an AUV trajectory planner. These results indicate a modest, but measurable, improvement in surfacing error when the model predictions are incorporated into the planner.

Pelastustoimi alueellisessa kehittämisessä : Länsi-Uudenmaan pelastuslaitoksen saavutettavuus

By law, rescue services must anticipate and plan future rescue situations so that the emergency measures taken in the event of an accident can be accomplished quickly and effectively. To reach this goal, rescue services planning must be up to date. The development of rescue services is di-rected by the Rescue Act, and guidelines such as the readiness program, based on that law. The guidelines give the basic principles for organizing rescue services. This paper studies the ability of rescuers to reach different locations now, and in the future, and whether this happens within the time constraints required by the readiness program. The time per-spective of the study includes both the current time and the future. Predictions of possible future situations are based on zoning information. The goal of the study is to find out whether there are any gaps in the network of fire stations or if gaps will develop in the near future. The strong growth and increase in the population of the greater Helsinki area, and of surrounding towns, creates many challenges for city planning, including rescue services. This study targets the two towns of Espoo and Kirkkonummi, where fast growth specifically into new housing areas, makes planning of rescue services challenging. Many new options are available for planning due to technological developments. The combined methods of planning and geo-informatics used in this study help to determine the need for new resources in rescue services. By using these methods, the planning of rescue services could be done at least 10 years into the future.

Predictive uncertainty of chaotic daily streamflow using ensemble wavelet networks approach

Perfect or even mediocre weather predictions over a long period are almost impossible because of the ultimate growth of a small initial error into a significant one. Even though the sensitivity of initial conditions limits the predictability in chaotic systems, an ensemble of prediction from different possible initial conditions and also a prediction algorithm capable of resolving the fine structure of the chaotic attractor can reduce the prediction uncertainty to some extent. All of the traditional chaotic prediction methods in hydrology are based on single optimum initial condition local models which can model the sudden divergence of the trajectories with different local functions. Conceptually, global models are ineffective in modeling the highly unstable structure of the chaotic attractor. This paper focuses on an ensemble prediction approach by reconstructing the phase space using different combinations of chaotic parameters, i.e., embedding dimension and delay time to quantify the uncertainty in initial conditions. The ensemble approach is implemented through a local learning wavelet network model with a global feed-forward neural network structure for the phase space prediction of chaotic streamflow series. Quantification of uncertainties in future predictions are done by creating an ensemble of predictions with wavelet network using a range of plausible embedding dimensions and delay times. The ensemble approach is proved to be 50% more efficient than the single prediction for both local approximation and wavelet network approaches. The wavelet network approach has proved to be 30%-50% more superior to the local approximation approach. Compared to the traditional local approximation approach with single initial condition, the total predictive uncertainty in the streamflow is reduced when modeled with ensemble wavelet networks for different lead times. Localization property of wavelets, utilizing different dilation and translation parameters, helps in capturing most of the statistical properties of the observed data. The need for taking into account all plausible initial conditions and also bringing together the characteristics of both local and global approaches to model the unstable yet ordered chaotic attractor of a hydrologic series is clearly demonstrated.

Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model

Climate change has already altered the distribution of marine fishes. Future predictions of fish distributions and catches based on bioclimate envelope models are available, but to date they have not considered interspecific interactions. We address this by combining the species-based Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) with a size-based trophic model. The new approach provides spatially and temporally resolved predictions of changes in species' size, abundance and catch potential that account for the effects of ecological interactions. Predicted latitudinal shifts are, on average, reduced by 20% when species interactions are incorporated, compared to DBEM predictions, with pelagic species showing the greatest reductions. Goodness-of-fit of biomass data from fish stock assessments in the North Atlantic between 1991 and 2003 is improved slightly by including species interactions. The differences between predictions from the two models may be relatively modest because, at the North Atlantic basin scale, (i) predators and competitors may respond to climate change together; (ii) existing parameterization of the DBEM might implicitly incorporate trophic interactions; and/or (iii) trophic interactions might not be the main driver of responses to climate. Future analyses using ecologically explicit models and data will improve understanding of the effects of inter-specific interactions on responses to climate change, and better inform managers about plausible ecological and fishery consequences of a changing environment.

Data rescue and re-use: Recycling old information to address new policy concerns

Information on past trends is essential to inform future predictions and underpin attribution needed to drive policy responses. It has long been recognised that sustained observations are essential for disentangling climate-driven change from other regional and local-scale anthropogenic impacts and environmental fluctuations or cycles in natural systems. This paper highlights how data rescue and re-use have contributed to the debate on climate change responses of marine biodiversity and ecosystems. It also illustrates via two case studies the re-use of old data to address new policy concerns. The case studies focus on (1) plankton, fish and benthos from the Western English Channel and (2) broad-scale and long-term studies of intertidal species around the British Isles. Case study 1 using the Marine Biological Association of the UK's English Channel data has shown the influence of climatic fluctuations on phenology (migration and breeding patterns) and has also helped to disentangle responses to fishing pressure from those driven by climate, and provided insights into ecosystem-level change in the English Channel. Case study 2 has shown recent range extensions, increases of abundance and changes in phenology (breeding patterns) of southern, warm-water intertidal species in relation to recent rapid climate change and fluctuations in northern and southern barnacle species, enabling modelling and prediction of future states. The case is made for continuing targeted sustained observations and their importance for marine management and policy development.

Can climate models capture the structure of extratropical cyclones?

Composites of wind speeds, equivalent potential temperature, mean sea level pressure, vertical velocity, and relative humidity have been produced for the 100 most intense extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere winter for the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and the high resolution global environment model (HiGEM). Features of conceptual models of cyclone structure—the warm conveyor belt, cold conveyor belt, and dry intrusion—have been identified in the composites from ERA-40 and compared to HiGEM. Such features can be identified in the composite fields despite the smoothing that occurs in the compositing process. The surface features and the three-dimensional structure of the cyclones in HiGEM compare very well with those from ERA-40. The warm conveyor belt is identified in the temperature and wind fields as a mass of warm air undergoing moist isentropic uplift and is very similar in ERA-40 and HiGEM. The rate of ascent is lower in HiGEM, associated with a shallower slope of the moist isentropes in the warm sector. There are also differences in the relative humidity fields in the warm conveyor belt. In ERA-40, the high values of relative humidity are strongly associated with the moist isentropic uplift, whereas in HiGEM these are not so strongly associated. The cold conveyor belt is identified as rearward flowing air that undercuts the warm conveyor belt and produces a low-level jet, and is very similar in HiGEM and ERA-40. The dry intrusion is identified in the 500-hPa vertical velocity and relative humidity. The structure of the dry intrusion compares well between HiGEM and ERA-40 but the descent is weaker in HiGEM because of weaker along-isentrope flow behind the composite cyclone. HiGEM’s ability to represent the key features of extratropical cyclone structure can give confidence in future predictions from this model.

Is China's rise a threat? Understanding the 'China' challenge

TOPICS
Introduction
In fear of China in the United States
Deconstructing the 'China threat' image
The IChina' challenge revisited
Future predictions

The west and the rest

TOPICS
European exploration of the Orient
Oriental ism
Orientalist art
Early European views of Muslims
Universal values versus cultural relativism
The clash of civilisations
The emergence and function of rogue states
The axis of evil and the war on terror
Future predictions

Knowledge management as perceived by quality practitioners

Purpose – This paper seeks to explore the relationship between knowledge management and quality management with a particular focus on the role of quality culture. The paper also aims to address the assumption that as knowledge management reaches its maturity, in terms of acceptance as an important part of doing business in the modern world, quality will again become the mantra of successful companies.

Design/methodology/approach – A total of 1,000 quality managers from Australian organisations were surveyed for their perspectives on current and future knowledge management and quality management approaches. The questionnaire utilised both quantitative and qualitative data collection methods. The questionnaire was broken into three sections: respondent profile, current knowledge management and quality management practices, and future predictions for both knowledge management and quality management.

Findings – The key finding of the paper was that organisations would have to embrace a quality culture as a fundamental component of implementing knowledge management in order to compete successfully in such a dynamic business environment. The responses from this survey assist in identifying the relationship between knowledge and quality management, and the importance and future of both knowledge and quality management.

Originality/value – This paper is based upon the assumption that quality is in fact, resurging. It has identified quality culture as the significant link between knowledge management and quality management that leads to successful competitive advantage. Organisations are urged to recognise knowledge management as a vehicle for success not a stand-alone process. It is the first time that such a survey has been designed, and the first time a paper has produced an explanation to the current situation.

Detecting range shifts among Australian fishes in response to climate change

One of the most obvious and expected impacts of climate change is a shift in the distributional range of organisms, which could have considerable ecological and economic consequences. Australian waters are hotspots for climate-induced environmental changes; here, we review these potential changes and their apparent and potential implications for freshwater, estuarine and marine fish. Our meta-analysis detected 300 papers globally on 'fish' and 'range shifts', with ∼7% being from Australia. Of the Australian papers, only one study exhibited definitive evidence of climate-induced range shifts, with most studies focussing instead on future predictions. There was little consensus in the literature regarding the definition of 'range', largely because of populations having distributions that fluctuate regularly. For example, many marine populations have broad dispersal of offspring (causing vagrancy). Similarly, in freshwater and estuarine systems, regular environmental changes (e.g. seasonal, ENSO cycles not related to climate change) cause expansion and contraction of populations, which confounds efforts to detect range 'shifts'. We found that increases in water temperature, reduced freshwater flows and changes in ocean currents are likely to be the key drivers of climate-induced range shifts in Australian fishes. Although large-scale frequent and rigorous direct surveys of fishes across their entire distributional ranges, especially at range edges, will be essential to detect range shifts of fishes in response to climate change, we suggest careful co-opting of fisheries, museum and other regional databases as a potential, but imperfect alternative. © 2011 CSIRO Open Access.