From Empirical Bayes to Full Bayes: Methods for Analysing Traffice Safety Data, October 25, 2004

Traffic safety engineers are among the early adopters of Bayesian statistical tools for analyzing crash data. As in many other areas of application, empirical Bayes methods were their first choice, perhaps because they represent an intuitively appealing, yet relatively easy to implement alternative to purely classical approaches. With the enormous progress in numerical methods made in recent years and with the availability of free, easy to use software that permits implementing a fully Bayesian approach, however, there is now ample justification to progress towards fully Bayesian analyses of crash data. The fully Bayesian approach, in particular as implemented via multi-level hierarchical models, has many advantages over the empirical Bayes approach. In a full Bayesian analysis, prior information and all available data are seamlessly integrated into posterior distributions on which practitioners can base their inferences. All uncertainties are thus accounted for in the analyses and there is no need to pre-process data to obtain Safety Performance Functions and other such prior estimates of the effect of covariates on the outcome of interest. In this slight, fully Bayesian methods may well be less costly to implement and may result in safety estimates with more realistic standard errors. In this manuscript, we present the full Bayesian approach to analyzing traffic safety data and focus on highlighting the differences between the empirical Bayes and the full Bayes approaches. We use an illustrative example to discuss a step-by-step Bayesian analysis of the data and to show some of the types of inferences that are possible within the full Bayesian framework.

From Empirical Bayes to Full Bayes: Methods for Analyzubg Traffic Safey Data, October 25, 2004

Traffic safety engineers are among the early adopters of Bayesian statistical tools for analyzing crash data. As in many other areas of application, empirical Bayes methods were their first choice, perhaps because they represent an intuitively appealing, yet relatively easy to implement alternative to purely classical approaches. With the enormous progress in numerical methods made in recent years and with the availability of free, easy to use software that permits implementing a fully Bayesian approach, however, there is now ample justification to progress towards fully Bayesian analyses of crash data. The fully Bayesian approach, in particular as implemented via multi-level hierarchical models, has many advantages over the empirical Bayes approach. In a full Bayesian analysis, prior information and all available data are seamlessly integrated into posterior distributions on which practitioners can base their inferences. All uncertainties are thus accounted for in the analyses and there is no need to pre-process data to obtain Safety Performance Functions and other such prior estimates of the effect of covariates on the outcome of interest. In this light, fully Bayesian methods may well be less costly to implement and may result in safety estimates with more realistic standard errors. In this manuscript, we present the full Bayesian approach to analyzing traffic safety data and focus on highlighting the differences between the empirical Bayes and the full Bayes approaches. We use an illustrative example to discuss a step-by-step Bayesian analysis of the data and to show some of the types of inferences that are possible within the full Bayesian framework.

Avaliação isocinetica de joelho em jogadores de futebol categoria sub-20

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Data-based priors for vector autoregressions with drifting coefficients

This paper proposes full-Bayes priors for time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) which are more robust and objective than existing choices proposed in the literature. We formulate the priors in a way that they allow for straightforward posterior computation, they require minimal input by the user, and they result in shrinkage posterior representations, thus, making them appropriate for models of large dimensions. A comprehensive forecasting exercise involving TVP-VARs of different dimensions establishes the usefulness of the proposed approach.

Consumo máximo de oxigênio e limiar anaeróbio de jogadores de futebol: comparação entre as diferentes posições

O grau de desenvolvimento das capacidades físicas no futebol é fator determinante do nível desportivo do jogador. O objetivo do presente estudo foi comparar valores de limiar anaeróbio e consumo máximo de oxigênio entre jogadores profissionais de futebol de diferentes posições. Para tanto, 25 atletas (idade = 22,08 ± 8,28 anos, peso = 76,12 ± 9,8kg, altura = 179,8 ± 7,1cm e relação corporal = 12,21 ± 3,67% de gordura corporal) foram divididos em cinco grupos, como se segue: goleiros (GO), zagueiros (ZA), laterais (LA), meio-campistas (MC) e atacantes (AT). O VO2max foi determinado em esteira ergométrica através de análise direta e a velocidade de corrida correspondente ao limiar anaeróbio fixo de 4mM (V4mM), em teste de campo (2 x 1.000m a 90 e 95% da velocidade máxima para a distância) através de interpolação linear. A V4mM foi menor (p < 0,05) para o grupo GO em relação aos demais grupos. Além disso, os grupos LA e MC apresentaram valores de V4mM significantemente maiores em relação aos grupos ZA e AT. O grupo GO mostrou VO2max significantemente menor em relação a todos os outros grupos, sendo que estes últimos não apresentaram diferença entre si. Uma vez que os atletas de diferentes posições não realizavam treinamento diferenciado, os autores creditam as diferenças encontradas à especificidade da movimentação durante partidas e coletivos.

Dual Active Bridge based Battery Charger for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle with Charging Current Containing Low Frequency Ripple

High power density is strongly preferable for the on-board battery charger of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV). Wide band gap devices, such as Gallium Nitride HEMTs are being explored to push to higher switching frequency and reduce passive component size. In this case, the bulk DC link capacitor of AC-DC Power Factor Correction (PFC) stage, which is usually necessary to store ripple power of two times the line frequency in a DC current charging system, becomes a major barrier on power density. If low frequency ripple is allowed in the battery, the DC link capacitance can be significantly reduced. This paper focuses on the operation of a battery charging system, which is comprised of one Full Bridge (FB) AC-DC stage and one Dual Active Bridge (DAB) DC-DC stage, with charging current containing low frequency ripple at two times line frequency, designated as sinusoidal charging. DAB operation under sinusoidal charging is investigated. Two types of control schemes are proposed and implemented in an experimental prototype. It is proved that closed loop current control is the better. Full system test including both FB AC-DC stage and DAB DC-DC stage verified the concept of sinusoidal charging, which may lead to potentially very high power density battery charger for PHEV.

Functionality of the approach of hierarchical analysis in the full cost accounting in the IRP of a metropolitan airport

This work shows the application of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in the full cost accounting (FCA) within the integrated resource planning (IRP) process. For this purpose, a pioneer case was developed and different energy solutions of supply and demand for a metropolitan airport (Congonhas) were considered [Moreira, E.M., 2005. Modelamento energetico para o desenvolvimento limpo de aeroporto metropolitano baseado na filosofia do PIR-O caso da metropole de Sao Paulo. Dissertacao de mestrado, GEPEA/USP]. These solutions were compared and analyzed utilizing the software solution ""Decision Lens"" that implements the AHP. The final part of this work has a classification of resources that can be considered to be the initial target as energy resources, thus facilitating the restraints of the IRP of the airport and setting parameters aiming at sustainable development. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Closed hybrid hierarchical reservoirs based on the deconstruction of the cellular native microenvironment

The stem cell niche organization and dynamics provide valuable cues for the development of mimetic environments that could have potential to stimulate the regenerative process. We propose the use of biodegradable biomaterials to produce closed miniaturised structures able to encapsulate different cell types or bioactive molecules. In particular, capsules are fabricated using the so-called layer-by-layer technology, where the consecutive (nano-sized) layers are well stabilized by electrostatic interactions or other weak forces. Using alginate-based spherical templates containing cells or other elements (e.g. proteins, magnetic nanoparticles, microparticles) it is possible to produce liquefied capsules that may entrap the entire cargo under mild conditions. The inclusion of liquefied micropcapsules may be used to produce hierarchical compartmentalised systems for the delivery of bioactive agents. The presence of solid microparticles inside such capsules offers adequate surface area for adherent cell attachment increasing the biological performance of these hierarchical systems, while maintain both permeability and injectability. We demonstrated that the encapsulation of distinct cell types (including mesenchymal stem cells and endothelial cells) enhances the osteogenic capability of this system, that could be useful in bone tissue engineering applications.

An empirical hierarchical Bayesian unification of occupational exposure assessment methods.

In occupational exposure assessment of airborne contaminants, exposure levels can either be estimated through repeated measurements of the pollutant concentration in air, expert judgment or through exposure models that use information on the conditions of exposure as input. In this report, we propose an empirical hierarchical Bayesian model to unify these approaches. Prior to any measurement, the hygienist conducts an assessment to generate prior distributions of exposure determinants. Monte-Carlo samples from these distributions feed two level-2 models: a physical, two-compartment model, and a non-parametric, neural network model trained with existing exposure data. The outputs of these two models are weighted according to the expert's assessment of their relevance to yield predictive distributions of the long-term geometric mean and geometric standard deviation of the worker's exposure profile (level-1 model). Bayesian inferences are then drawn iteratively from subsequent measurements of worker exposure. Any traditional decision strategy based on a comparison with occupational exposure limits (e.g. mean exposure, exceedance strategies) can then be applied. Data on 82 workers exposed to 18 contaminants in 14 companies were used to validate the model with cross-validation techniques. A user-friendly program running the model is available upon request.

Evaluation of an average numerator relationship matrix model and a Bayesian hierarchical model for growth traits in Nellore cattle with uncertain paternity

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Mating system parameters at hierarchical levels of fruits, individuals and populations in the Brazilian insect-pollinated tropical tree, Tabebuia roseo-alba (Bignoniaceae)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Mating system parameters at hierarchical levels of fruits, individuals and populations in the Brazilian insect-pollinated tropical tree, Tabebuia roseo-alba (Bignoniaceae)

For many tree species, mating system analyses have indicated potential variations in the selfing rate and paternity correlation among fruits within individuals, among individuals within populations, among populations, and from one flowering event to another. In this study, we used eight microsatellite markers to investigate mating systems at two hierarchical levels (fruits within individuals and individuals within populations) for the insect pollinated Neotropical tree Tabebuia roseo-alba. We found that T. roseo-alba has a mixed mating system with predominantly outcrossed mating. The outcrossing rates at the population level were similar across two T. roseo-alba populations; however, the rates varied considerably among individuals within populations. The correlated paternity results at different hierarchical levels showed that there is a high probability of shared paternal parentage when comparing seeds within fruits and among fruits within plants and full-sibs occur in much higher proportion within fruits than among fruits. Significant levels of fixation index were found in both populations and biparental inbreeding is believed to be the main cause of the observed inbreeding. The number of pollen donors contributing to mating was low. Furthermore, open-pollinated seeds varied according to relatedness, including half-sibs, full-sibs, self-sibs and self- half-sibs. In both populations, the effective population size within a family (seed-tree and its offspring) was lower than expected for panmictic populations. Thus, seeds for ex situ conservation genetics, progeny tests and reforestation must be collected from a large number of seed-trees to guarantee an adequate effective population in the sample.

Reduced Bayesian Hierarchical Models: Estimating Health Effects of Simultaneous Exposure to Multiple Pollutants

Quantifying the health effects associated with simultaneous exposure to many air pollutants is now a research priority of the US EPA. Bayesian hierarchical models (BHM) have been extensively used in multisite time series studies of air pollution and health to estimate health effects of a single pollutant adjusted for potential confounding of other pollutants and other time-varying factors. However, when the scientific goal is to estimate the impacts of many pollutants jointly, a straightforward application of BHM is challenged by the need to specify a random-effect distribution on a high-dimensional vector of nuisance parameters, which often do not have an easy interpretation. In this paper we introduce a new BHM formulation, which we call "reduced BHM", aimed at analyzing clustered data sets in the presence of a large number of random effects that are not of primary scientific interest. At the first stage of the reduced BHM, we calculate the integrated likelihood of the parameter of interest (e.g. excess number of deaths attributed to simultaneous exposure to high levels of many pollutants). At the second stage, we specify a flexible random-effect distribution directly on the parameter of interest. The reduced BHM overcomes many of the challenges in the specification and implementation of full BHM in the context of a large number of nuisance parameters. In simulation studies we show that the reduced BHM performs comparably to the full BHM in many scenarios, and even performs better in some cases. Methods are applied to estimate location-specific and overall relative risks of cardiovascular hospital admissions associated with simultaneous exposure to elevated levels of particulate matter and ozone in 51 US counties during the period 1999-2005.

Twenty questions with noise: Bayes optimal policies for entropy loss

We consider the problem of twenty questions with noisy answers, in which we seek to find a target by repeatedly choosing a set, asking an oracle whether the target lies in this set, and obtaining an answer corrupted by noise. Starting with a prior distribution on the target's location, we seek to minimize the expected entropy of the posterior distribution. We formulate this problem as a dynamic program and show that any policy optimizing the one-step expected reduction in entropy is also optimal over the full horizon. Two such Bayes optimal policies are presented: one generalizes the probabilistic bisection policy due to Horstein and the other asks a deterministic set of questions. We study the structural properties of the latter, and illustrate its use in a computer vision application.

An Investigation of the Features and Effectiveness of the Full-Day Early Learning Kindergarten Program in Ontario

This dissertation includes two studies. Study 1 is a qualitative case study that describes enactment of the main components of a high fidelity Full-Day Early Learning Kindergarten (FDELK) classroom, specifically play-based learning and teacher-ECE collaboration. Study 2 is a quantitative analysis that investigates how effectively the FDELK program promotes school readiness skills, namely self-regulation, literacy, and numeracy, in Kindergarteners. To describe the main components of an FDELK classroom in Study 1, a sub-sample of four high fidelity case study schools were selected from a larger case study sample. Interview data from these schools’ administrators, educators, parents, and community stakeholders were used to describe how the main components of the FDELK program enabled educators to meet the individual needs of students and promote students’ SR development. In Study 2, hierarchical regression analyses of 32,207 students’ self-regulation, literacy, and numeracy outcomes using 2012 Ontario Early Development Instrument (EDI) data revealed essentially no benefit for students participating in the FDELK program when compared to peers in Half-Day or Alternate-Day Kindergarten programs. Being older and female predicted more positive SR and literacy outcomes. Age and gender accounted for limited variance in numeracy outcomes. Results from both studies suggest that the Ontario Ministry of Education should take steps to improve the quality of the FDELK program by incorporating evidence-based guidelines and goals for play, reducing Kindergarten class sizes to more effectively scaffold learning, and revising curriculum expectations to include a greater focus on SR, literacy, and numeracy skills.