Direct comparison of eight national FRAX® tools for fracture prediction and treatment qualification in Canadian women

The authors compared the calibration of FRAX tools from Canada, the US (white), UK, Sweden, France, Australia, New Zealand, and China when used to assess fracture risk in 36,730 Canadian women. Their data underscores the importance of applying country-specific FRAX tools that are based upon high-quality national fracture epidemiology.

FRAX provides robust fracture prediction regardless of socioeconomic status

The authors investigated the fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) Canada calibration and discrimination according to income quintile in 51,327 Canadian women, with and without a competing mortality framework. The data shows that, under a competing mortality framework, FRAX provides robust fracture prediction and calibration regardless of socioeconomic status (SES).

Fracture prediction from repeat BMD measurements in clinical practice

Summary: We investigated whether repeat BMD measurements in clinical populations are useful for fracture risk assessment. We report that repeat BMD measurements are a robust predictor of fracture in clinical populations; this is not affected by preceding BMD change or recent osteoporosis therapy. Introduction: In clinical practice, many patients selectively undergo repeat bone mineral density (BMD) measurements. We investigated whether repeat BMD measurements in clinical populations are useful for fracture risk assessment and whether this is affected by preceding change in BMD or recent osteoporosis therapy. Methods: We identified women and men aged ≥50 years who had a BMD measurement during 1990–2009 from a large clinical BMD database for Manitoba, Canada (n = 50,215). Patient subgroups aged ≥50 years at baseline with repeat BMD measures were identified. Data were linked to an administrative data repository, from which osteoporosis therapy, fracture outcomes, and covariates were extracted. Using Cox proportional hazards models, we assessed covariate-adjusted risk for major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) and hip fracture according to BMD (total hip, lumbar spine, femoral neck) at different time points. Results: Prevalence of osteoporosis therapy increased from 18 % at baseline to 55 % by the fourth measurement. Total hip BMD was predictive of MOF at each time point. In the patient subgroup with two repeat BMD measurements (n = 13,481), MOF prediction with the first and second measurements was similar: adjusted-hazard ratio (HR) per SD 1.45 (95 % CI 1.34–1.56) vs. 1.64 (95 % CI 1.48–1.81), respectively. No differences were seen when the second measurement results were stratified by preceding change in BMD or osteoporosis therapy (both p-interactions >0.2). Similar results were seen for hip fracture prediction and when spine and femoral neck BMD were analyzed. Conclusion: Repeat BMD measurements are a robust predictor of fracture in clinical populations; this is not affected by preceding BMD change or recent osteoporosis therapy.

Fracture thresholds revisited : Geelong Osteoporosis Study

Osteoporosis, in the absence of fracture, is defined as a deficit in bone mineral density (BMD) of 2.5 SD or more below the young adult reference mean in postmenopausal Caucasian populations. BMD is a measure of fracture risk but not the sole predictor. We have assessed a combination of easily accessible measures of age, height, weight, and BMD to improve fracture risk assessment. Women with low trauma fractures and a control group were recruited from south-eastern Australia. Discriminant analysis derived multivariate equations that assessed fracture risk. Age was not in the best models at the spine and forearm sites. Weight and height contributed to the relationship for the forearm sites only. At the proximal femur, the BMD level that separates fracture cases from nonfracture cases, increases with age. These separation levels of BMD were higher than the WHO's level of osteoporosis (T-score < −2.5 SD) at ages older than 62 years. This increasing BMD threshold with age suggests that other age-related risk factors assume increasing importance among the elderly.

Prediction of ductile failure in CP-Titanium as criterion of SPD process design

Application of damage model in combination with finite element analysis to design and optimization of equal channel angular pressing - conform of commercially pure titanium against ductile failure is demonstrated. The properties required for precise simulation of the process and prediction of damage accumulation (equivalent stress as function of equivalent strain and temperature and low bound ductility function) are obtained in the temperature interval 20-400 °C and described in details.

裂缝储层预测技术应用研究

In practice,many fracture reservoir was found,which has giant potential for exporation. For example,in limestone fracture reservoir,igneous rock fracture reservoir and shale fracture reservoir ,there are high yield oil wells found. The fracture reservoir has strong anisotropy and is very difficult to explore and produce.Since 1990’s,the techniques that use structure information and P-WAVE seismic attributes to detect fracture developed very rapidly,include stress and strain analysis,using amplitude,interval velocity,time-difference,azimuthal AVO analysis etc. Based on research and develop these advanced techniques of fracture detect,this paper selected two typical fracture reservoir as target area,according to the characters of research area,selected different techniques to pridect the fracture azimuth and density of target,and at last ,confirmed the favored area. This paper includes six parts:the first chapter mainly addresses the domestic and international research actuality about the fracture prediction and the evolement in ShengLi oil field,then according to the temporal exploration requirement,a research route was established; Based on the close relationship between structural fracture and the geotectonic movement and the procedure of rock distortion，the second chapter research the structural fracture predicting technique which is realized by computing the strain in every geotectonic movement ,which is by use of the forward and inversion of the growing history of structure; The third chapter discussed many kind of traditional techniques for fracture reservoir prediction,and point out their disadvantages.then research and develop the coherence volume computing technique which can distinguish from faults,the seismic wave absorbing technique,and other fracture predicting technique which is by use of seismic attributes ,such as azimuthal AVO FVO etc; The fourth chapter first establish the geological and petrophysical model by use of the existed log and drill well information, then research the variation of amplitude and seismic wave which is caused by fractures.based on it , the fracture predicting technique which is by use of variation of azimuthal impedance is researched;The fifth chapter is a case study,it selects shale fracture reservoir in LuoJia area as target,selects several kind of techniques to apply ,at last ,the fracture distribution of target reservoir and favored area were gotten;the sixth chapter is another case study,it selects limestone fracture reservoir in BoShen6 buried hill as target,selects several kind of techniques to apply,similarly favored area were gotten. Based on deeply research and development of the new techniques for fracture reservoir exploration, This paper selects two fracture reservoirs the most typical in ShengLi as targets to be applied ,good results show up a good application way ,which can be used for reference for future fracture exploration,and it can bring materially economic and social benefit.

辽河坳陷东部凹陷火山岩构造裂缝形成机理研究及预测

In recent years, with the discovery oil and gas reservoirs in volcanic rocks, the exploration and development of these reservoirs have attracted widespread attention because of the urgent need for increasing oil and gas production in the world and volcanic rocks has currently become an important exploration target in Liaohe depression. The study area of this dissertation is in the middle section of the easternern sag of Liaohe depression that have been confirmed by studying structural fractures, which constitute a key factor impacting volcanic rocks reservoirs. Substantial reserves and large production capacity in the areas with widely distributed volcanic rocks are important reasons for examining volcanic rocks in the study area. The study began with classification and experimental data analysis of volcanic rocks fractural formation, then focused on the mechanism of fracturing and the development of volcanic rocks structural fracture prediction methodology.and Lastly, predicted volcanic rocks structural fracture before drilling involved a comprehensive study of the petroleum geology of this area, which identified favorable traps thereby reducing exploration risks and promoting the exploration and development of volcanic rocks reservoirs. 3Dstress and 3Dmove software were applied to predict structural fracture by combining the core data, well-logging data and seismic data together and making the visualization of a fracture possible. Base on the detailed fracture prediction results, well OuO48 and well Ou52 were drilled and successfully provided a basis for high efficiency exploration and development of fractured reservoir in the middle section of the eastern sag. As a result of what have been done, a new round of exploration of volcanic rocks was developed. Well OU48 and well OU52 successfully drilled in this area resulted in the in-depth study of the mechanism of structural fracture formation, technological innovation of structural fracture prediction of volcanic rocks , which guided to oil and gas exploration effectively and made it possible for high production of volcanic rocks. By the end of August 2005, the cumulative oil and gas production of Ou48 block were 5.1606 × 104 t and 1271.3× 104 m3 respectively, which made outstanding contributions to the oilfield development. Above all this work not only promoted exploration and structural fracture prediction in volcanic rocks in Liaohe depression, but also applied to in the low-permeability and fractured sandstone reservoir.

天然气藏地震识别技术研究

The Research of Seismic Recognition Techniques for Gas Reservoir Shang Yong_sheng(Geophysics) Directed by Yang Chang-chun Abstract Gas reservior is one of the most important nature resources. Someone forecast that the output will exceed crude oil in 2015 and become the largest energy source. Recently,more and more gas reservior are discovered as the oil field and gas filed exploration go deep into development. Although the gas proved reserves rise greatly the explorative degree of natural gas resource in our country is still very low. The potential of gas exploration is very great and our task is so hard. How to recognise and discover new gas reservoir is the first task based on the great gas reservior resources foreground. the gas reservior in different oil and gas field have its special gas generation, reservoiring, physical property conditions. However,it may have the same geophysical characters. So,it is very important to analyse, research, summarizing the geophysical characters of the gas reservior and make use of the characters to identify the gas layer effectively. This paper start with modeling,and it discuss the geophysical characters of the gas reservior response. It analyse the seismical wave characters of the gas reservoir. Furthermore, it summarize the method of using the seismica profile to identify the gas reservior directly. The paper discuss the research of extracting diffraction wave for mass diffraction wave grow at the edge of the gas reservoir at the seismic section. Making use of the technique of extracting diffraction wave to identify the gas reservior is the first experiment of the gas reservoir prediction technique. The avo technology is a new geophysical method. From the pre-stack analysis, this paper discuss the technique of using the rich information to identify the gas reservoir. Based on the case study of the Qidam basin and the Hailaer basin it discuss the method of predicating gas reservoir using pre-stack information. It include pre-stack amplitude preserve process, AVO modeling, fluid replacement technique, AVO analysis and interpretation technique. The paper summarize a gas reservoir prediction procedure focusing on the pre-stack information. The seismic wave will cause great attenuation when it pass through the gas layer and the high frequency component loss. This paper discuss the technique of extracting seismic attributes to represent the attenuation degree of seismica wave. Based on the attenuation attributes,it does the research of the gas reservor identification and prediction. At last,the paper discuss the method of calculating the azimuthal anisotropy to predict the fracture reservoir. Keyword: gas reservoir, diffraction wave, AVO, attenuation attribute,fracture prediction

火成岩储层裂缝识别、预测理论与方法研究－以济阳坳陷火成岩油藏为例

Since 1970s, igneous reservoirs such as Shang741, Bin674 and Luol51 have been found in Jiyang depression, which are enrichment and heavy-producing. Showing good prospect of exploration and development, igneous reservoirs have been the main part of increasing reserves and production in Shengli oilfield. As fracture igneous reservoir being an extraordinary complex concealed reservoir and showing heavy heterogeneity in spatial distribution, the study of recognition, prediction, formation mechanism and the law of distribution of fracture is essential to develop the reservoir. Guided by multiple discipline theory such as sedimentology, geophysics, mineralogy, petroleum geology, structural geology and reservoir engineering, a set of theories and methods of recognition and prediction of fractured igneous rock reservoir are formed in this paper. Rock data, three-dimensional seismic data, log data, borehole log data, testing data and production data are combined in these methods by the means of computer. Based on the research of igneous rock petrography and reservoir formation mechanism, emphasized on the assessment and forecast of igneous rock reservoir, aimed at establishing a nonhomogeneity quantification model of fractured igneous rock reservoir, the creativity on the fracture recognition, prediction and formation mechanism are achieved. The research result is applied to Jiyang depression, suggestion of exploration and development for fractured igneous rock reservoir is supplied and some great achievement and favourable economic effect are achieved. The main achievements are gained as follows: 1. The main facies models of igneous rock reservoir in JiYang depression are summarized. Based on data and techniques of seism, well log and logging,started from the research of single well rock facies, proceeded by seismic and log facies research, from point to line and line to face, the regional igneous facies models are established. And hypabyssal intrusion allgovite facies model, explosion volcaniclastic rock facies model and overfall basaltic rocks facies model are the main facies models of igneous rock reservoir in JiYang depression. 2. Four nonhomogenous reservoir models of igneous reservoirs are established, which is the base of fracture prediction and recognition. According to characteristics of igneous petrology and spatial types of reservoir, igneous reservoirs of Jiyang depression are divided into four categories: fractured irruptive rock reservoir, fracture-pore thermocontact metamorphic rock and irruptive rock compound reservoir, pore volcanic debris cone reservoir and fracture-pore overfall basaltic rock reservoir. The spatial distribution of each model's reservoir has its features. And reservoirs can be divided into primary ones and secondary ones, whose mechanism of formation and laws of distribution are studied in this paper. 3. Eight geologic factors which dominate igneous reservoirs are presented. The eight geologic factors which dominates igneous reservoirs are igneous facies, epigenetic tectonics deformation, fracture motion, intensity of intrusive effect and adjoining-rock characters, thermo-contact metamorphic rock facies, specific volcano-tectonic position, magmatic cyclicity and epigenetic diagenetic evolution. The interaction of the eight factors forms the four types nonhomogenous reservoir models of igneous reservoirs in Jiyang depression. And igneous facies and fracture motion are the most important and primary factors. 4. Identification patterns of seismic, well log and logging facies of igneous rocks are established. Igneous rocks of Jiyang depression show typical reflecting features on seismic profile. Tabular reflection seismic facies, arc reflection seismic facies and hummocky or mushroom reflection seismic facies are the three main facies. Logging response features of basic basalt and diabase are shown as typical "three low and two high", which means low natural gamma value, low interval transit-time, low neutron porosity, high resistivity and high density. Volcaniclastic rocks show "two high and three low"-high neutron porosity, high interval transit-time, low density, low-resistance and low natural gamma value. Thermo-contact metamorphic rocks surrounding to diabase show "four high and two low" on log data, which is high natural gamma value, high self-potential anomaly, high neutron porosity, high interval transit-time and low density and low-resistance. Based on seismic, well log and logging data, spatial shape of Shang 741 igneous rock is described. 5. The methods of fracture prediction and recognition for fractured igneous reservoir are summarized. Adopting FMI image log and nuclear magnetic resonance log to quantitative analysis of fractured igneous reservoir and according to formation mechanism and shape of fracture, various fractures are recognized, such as high-angle fracture, low-angle fracture, vertical fracture, reticulated fracture, induced fracture, infilling fracture and corrosion vug. Shang 741 intrusive rock reservoir can be divided into pore-vug compound type, pore fracture type, micro-pore and micro-fracture type. Physical properties parameters of the reservoir are computed and single-well fracture model and reservoir parameters model are established. 6. Various comprehensive methods of fracture prediction and recognition for fractured igneous reservoir are put forward. Adopting three-element (igneous facies, fracture motion and rock bending) geologic comprehensive reservoir evaluation technique and deep-shallow unconventional laterolog constrained inversion technique, lateral prediction of fractured reservoir such as Shang 741 is taken and nonhomogeneity quantification models of reservoirs are established.

Aplicação de um método de correlação de imagem para a determinação da tenacidade à fratura em corte de adesivos estruturais

Qualquer estrutura hoje em dia deve ser resistente, robusta e leve, o que aumentou o interesse industrial e investigação nas ligações adesivas, nomeadamente pela melhoria das propriedades de resistência e fratura dos materiais. Com esta técnica de união, o projeto de estruturas pode ser orientado para estruturas mais leves, não só em relação à economia direta de peso relativamente às juntas aparafusas ou soldadas, mas também por causa da flexibilidade para ligar materiais diferentes. Em qualquer área da indústria, a aplicação em larga escala de uma determinada técnica de ligação supõe que estão disponíveis ferramentas confiáveis para o projeto e previsão da rotura. Neste âmbito, Modelos de Dano Coesivo (MDC) são uma ferramenta essencial, embora seja necessário estimar as leis MDC do adesivo à tração e corte para entrada nos modelos numéricos. Este trabalho avalia o valor da tenacidade ao corte (GIIC) de juntas coladas para três adesivos com ductilidade distinta. O trabalho experimental consiste na caracterização à fratura ao corte da ligação adesiva por métodos convencionais e pelo Integral-J. Além disso, pelo integral-J, é possível definir a forma exata da lei coesiva. Para o integral-J, é utilizado um método de correlação de imagem digital anteriormente desenvolvido para a avaliação do deslocamento ao corte do adesivo na extremidade da fenda (δs) durante o ensaio, acoplado a uma sub-rotina em Matlab® para a extração automática de δs. É também apresentado um trabalho numérico para avaliar a adequabilidade de leis coesivas triangulares aproximadas em reproduzir as curvas força-deslocamento (P-δ) experimentais dos ensaios ENF. Também se apresenta uma análise de sensibilidade para compreender a influência dos parâmetros coesivos nas previsões numéricas. Como resultado deste trabalho, foram estimadas experimentalmente as leis coesivas de cada adesivo pelo método direto, e numericamente validadas, para posterior previsão de resistência em juntas adesivas. Em conjunto com a caraterização à tração destes adesivos, é possível a previsão da rotura em modo-misto.

FRAX (Aus) and falls risk: Association in men and women

Purpose: The WHO fracture risk prediction tool (FRAX®) utilises clinical risk factors to estimate the probability of fracture over a 10-year period. Although falls increase fracture risk, they have not been incorporated into FRAX. It is currently unclear if FRAX captures falls risk and whether addition of falls would improve fracture prediction. We aimed to investigate the association of falls risk and Australian-specific FRAX. Methods: Clinical risk factors were documented for 735 men and 602 women (age 40-90. yr) assessed at follow-up (2006-2010 and 2000-2003, respectively) of the Geelong Osteoporosis Study. FRAX scores with and without BMD were calculated. A falls risk score was determined at the time of BMD assessment and self-reported incident falls were documented from questionnaires returned one year later. Multivariable analyses were performed to determine: (i) cross-sectional association between FRAX scores and falls risk score (Elderly Falls Screening Test, EFST) and (ii) prospective relationship between FRAX and time to a fall. Results: There was an association between FRAX (hip with BMD) and EFST scores (. β=. 0.07, p<. 0.001). After adjustment for sex and age, the relationship became non-significant (. β=. 0.00, p=. 0.79). The risk of incident falls increased with increasing FRAX (hip with BMD) score (unadjusted HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02, 1.07). After adjustment for age and sex, the relationship became non-significant (1.01, 95% CI 0.97, 1.05). Conclusions: There is a weak positive correlation between FRAX and falls risk score, that is likely explained by the inclusion of age and sex in the FRAX model. These data suggest that FRAX score may not be a robust surrogate for falls risk and that inclusion of falls in fracture risk assessment should be further explored.

Contribution of Genetic Background and Clinical Risk Factors to Low-Trauma Fractures in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-Positive Persons: The Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

Background.  The impact of human genetic background on low-trauma fracture (LTF) risk has not been evaluated in the context of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and clinical LTF risk factors. Methods.  In the general population, 6 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associate with LTF through genome-wide association study. Using genome-wide SNP arrays and imputation, we genotyped these SNPs in HIV-positive, white Swiss HIV Cohort Study participants. We included 103 individuals with a first, physician-validated LTF and 206 controls matched on gender, whose duration of observation and whose antiretroviral therapy start dates were similar using incidence density sampling. Analyses of nongenetic LTF risk factors were based on 158 cases and 788 controls. Results.  A genetic risk score built from the 6 LTF-associated SNPs did not associate with LTF risk, in both models including and not including parental hip fracture history. The contribution of clinical LTF risk factors was limited in our dataset. Conclusions.  Genetic LTF markers with a modest effect size in the general population do not improve fracture prediction in persons with HIV, in whom clinical LTF risk factors are prevalent in both cases and controls.

Prediction of adjacent vertebral fracture risk associated with vertebroplasty : a computer-based simulation study

Vertebrplasty involved injecting cement into a fractured vertebra to provide stabilisation. There is clinical evidence to suggest however that vertebroplasty may be assocated with a higher risk of adjacent vertebral fracture; which may be due to the change in material properties of the post-procedure vertebra modifying the transmission of mechanical stresses to adjacent vertebrae.

Prediction of load-deflection behaviour using fracture energy GF: A comparative study of two fracture models for concrete

Load-deflection curves for a notched beam under three-point load are determined using the Fictitious Crack Model (FCM) and Blunt Crack Model (BCM). Two values of fracture energy GF are used in this analysis: (i) GF obtained from the size effect law and (ii) GF obtained independently of the size effect. The predicted load-deflection diagrams are compared with the experimental ones obtained for the beams tested by Jenq and Shah. In addition, the values of maximum load (Pmax) obtained by the analyses are compared with the experimental ones for beams tested by Jenq and Shah and by Bažant and Pfeiffer. The results indicate that the descending portion of the load-deflection curve is very sensitive to the GF value used.