RISKS TO FOOD AVAILABILITY AND ACCESS FROM CLIMATE POLICIES: AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF REGIONAL FOOD AVAILABILITY AND ACCESS WITH ALTERNATIVE CLIMATE MITIGATION STRATEGIES TO 2050

Although mitigating GHG emissions is necessary to reduce the overall negative climate change impacts on crop yields and agricultural production, certain mitigation measures may generate unintended consequences to food availability and access due to land use competition and economic burden of mitigation. Prior studies have examined the co-impacts on food availability and global producer prices caused by alternative climate policies. More recent studies have looked at the reduction in total caloric intake driven by both changing income and changing food prices under one specific climate policy. However, due to inelastic calorie demand, consumers’ well-being are likely further reduced by increased food expenditures. Built upon existing literature, my dissertation explores how alternative climate policy designs might adversely affect both caloric intake and staple food budget share to 2050, by using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and a post-estimated metric of food availability and access (FAA). My dissertation first develop a set of new metrics and methods to explore new perspectives of food availability and access under new conditions. The FAA metric consists of two components, the fraction of GDP per capita spent on five categories of staple food and total caloric intake relative to a reference level. By testing the metric against alternate expectations of the future, it shows consistent results with previous studies that economic growth dominates the improvement of FAA. As we increase our ambition to achieve stringent climate targets, two policy conditions tend to have large impacts on FAA driven by competing land use and increasing food prices. Strict conservation policies leave the competition between bioenergy and agriculture production on existing commercial land, while pricing terrestrial carbon encourages large-scale afforestation. To avoid unintended outcomes to food availability and access for the poor, pricing land emissions in frontier forests has the advantage of selecting more productive land for agricultural activities compared to the full conservation approach, but the land carbon price should not be linked to the price of energy system emissions. These results are highly relevant to effective policy-making to reduce land use change emissions, such as the Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD).

Impacts of food availability and pCO2 on planulation, juvenile survival, and calcification of the azooxanthellate scleractinian coral Balanophyllia elegans

Ocean acidification, the assimilation of atmospheric CO2 by the oceans that decreases the pH and CaCO3 saturation state (Omega) of seawater, is projected to have severe adverse consequences for calcifying organisms. While strong evidence suggests calcification by tropical reef-building corals containing algal symbionts (zooxanthellae) will decline over the next century, likely responses of azooxanthellate corals to ocean acidification are less well understood. Because azooxanthellate corals do not obtain photosynthetic energy from symbionts, they provide a system for studying the direct effects of acidification on energy available for calcification. The solitary azooxanthellate orange cup coral Balanophyllia elegans often lives in low-pH, upwelled waters along the California coast. In an 8-month factorial experiment, we measured the effects of three pCO2 treatments (410, 770, and 1220 µatm) and two feeding frequencies (3-day and 21-day intervals) on "planulation" (larval release) by adult B. elegans, and on the survival, skeletal growth, and calcification of newly settled juveniles. Planulation rates were affected by food level but not pCO2. Juvenile mortality was highest under high pCO2 (1220 µatm) and low food (21-day intervals). Feeding rate had a greater impact on calcification of B. elegans than pCO2. While net calcification was positive even at 1220 µatm (~3 times current atmospheric pCO2), overall calcification declined by ~25-45%, and skeletal density declined by ~35-45% as pCO2 increased from 410 to 1220 µatm. Aragonite crystal morphology changed at high pCO2, becoming significantly shorter but not wider at 1220 µatm. We conclude that food abundance is critical for azooxanthellate coral calcification, and that B. elegans may be partially protected from adverse consequences of ocean acidification in habitats with abundant heterotrophic food.

Food availability and predation risk, rather than intrinsic attributes are the main factors shaping the reproductive decisions of a long-lived predator

Funded by Natural Research Limited Natural Environment Research Council studentship. Grant Numbers: NE/J500148/1, NE/F021402/1

Use of satellite data for modelling food availability and survival of marine fish larvae

A modelling scheme is described which uses satellite retrieved sea-surface temperature and chlorophyll-a to derive monthly zooplankton biomass estimates in the eastern North Atlantic; this forms part of a bio-physical model of inter-annual variations in the growth and survival of larvae and post-larvae of mackerel (Scomber scombrus). The temperature and chlorophyll data are incorporated first to model copepod (Calanus) egg production rates. Egg production is then converted to available food using distribution data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) Survey, observed population biomass per unit daily egg production and the proportion of the larval mackerel diet comprising Calanus. Results are validated in comparison with field observations of zooplankton biomass. The principal benefit of the modelling scheme is the ability to use the combination of broad scale coverage and fine scale temporal and spatial variability of satellite data as driving forces in the model; weaknesses are the simplicity of the egg production model and the broad-scale generalizations assumed in the raising factors to convert egg production to biomass.

Wind mixing, food availability and mortality of anchovy larvae Engraulis encrasicolus in the northern Adriatic Sea

A study was carried out in June/July 1996 in the River Po outflow in the northern Adriatic to investigate spawning of anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus and survival of larvae in relation to food availability and wind mixing. Hydrographic- and bongo net sampling was carried out on 2 grid surveys; one after a period of low winds and settled weather, and the other after an intervening period of strong winds, which resulted in a decrease in water column stratification. The spawning areas of anchovy and the larval distributions were associated with the river outflow plume (most clearly on the second survey grid, after the period of higher winds). Potential food particles for anchovy larvae, primarily copepod nauplii and copepodite stages, were also concentrated in the area influenced by the river outflow. Although there was a nearly 50% reduction in the mean water column abundance of potential food particles between the 2 survey grids, mostly due to a decline in abundance outside the immediate river plume area, there was no significant change in mortality of anchovy larvae between the 2 grids; the exponential decline in numbers of eggs and larvae to 10 mm in length being equivalent to overall mortality rates of 43.2%/d on the first survey and 44.7%/d on the second. The resilience of larval survival under potentially less favourable feeding conditions, following the period of wind mixing, was ascribed, in part, to the maintenance of local water column stratification by the superficial low salinity input from the River Po. This stratification in the immediate outflow area was associated with the presence of concentrated layers of potential food particles (typically >50 particles/L and 1.5 to 2.8 times the mean water column abundance) in the upper 10 m of the water column, coincident with peak numbers of anchovy larvae. However, since there was no evidence for lower larval survival in areas, less influenced by the immediate river outflow plume, a simple direct relationship between enhanced water column stability, improved feeding conditions and larval survival was not supported.

Foraging ecology, fluctuating food availability and energetics of wintering brent geese

Changing energy requirements and dramatic shifts in food availability are major factors driving behaviour and distribution of herbivores. We investigate this in wintering East Canadian High Arctic light-bellied brent geese Branta bernicla hrota in Northern Ireland. They followed a sequential pattern of habitat use, feeding on intertidal Zostera spp. in autumn and early winter before moving to predominantly saltmarsh and farmland in late winter and early spring. Night-time feeding occurred throughout and made a considerable contribution to the birds' daily energy budget, at times accounting for > 50% of energy intake. Nocturnal feeding, however, is limited to the intertidal, possibly because of predation risk on terrestrial habitat, and increases with moonlight. The amount of Zostera spp., declined dramatically after the arrival of birds, predominantly, but not entirely, due to consumption by the birds. Birds gained fat reserves in the first 2 months but then this was dramatically lost as their major food source collapsed and their daily energy intake declined. Single birds consistently fared worse than paired birds and pairs with juveniles fared better than those without suggesting a benefit of having a family to compete for food. Many birds leave the Lough at this time of reduced Zostera spp. for other sea inlets in Ireland but some remain. Body condition of the latter gradually improved in early spring and reflected a heavy reliance on terrestrial habitats, particularly farmland, to meet the birds' daily energy requirements. However, even in the period immediately before migration to the breeding ground, the birds did not regain the amount of abdominal fatness observed in November. The dramatic changes in available food and requirements of the birds drive the major changes seen in foraging behaviour as the birds evade starvation in the wintering period.

The influence of larval density, food availability and habitat longevity on the life history and population growth rate of the midge Chironomus riparius

Despite long-standing interest in the forms and mechanisms of density dependence, these are still imperfectly understood. However, in a constant environment an increase in density must reduce per capita resource availability, which in turn leads to reduced survival, fecundity and somatic growth rate. Here we report two population experiments examining the density dependent responses under controlled conditions of an important indicator species, Chironomus riparius. The first experiment was run for 35 weeks and was started at low density with replicate populations being fed three different rations. Increased ration reduced generation time and increased population growth rate (pgr) but had no effect on survival, fecundity and female body weight in the first generation. In the second generation there was a six-fold increase in generation time, presumably due to the greatly reduced per capita resource availability as the estimated initial densities of the second generation were 300 times greater than the first. Juvenile survival to emergence, fecundity, adult body weight and pgr declined by 90%, 75%, 35% and 99%, respectively. These large between-generation effects may have obscured the effects of the threefold variation in ration, as only survival to emergence significantly increased with ration in the second generation. These results suggest that some chironomid larvae survive a reduction in resource availability by growing more slowly. In the ephemeral habitats sometimes occupied by C. riparius, the effects of population density may depend crucially on the longevity of the environment. A second experiment was therefore performed to measure pgr from six different starting densities over an eight-week period. The relationship between pgr and density was concave, viewed from above. At densities above 16 larvae per cm(2), less than 1% of the population emerged and no offspring were produced. Under the conditions of experiment 2 - an 8-week habitat lifespan carrying capacity was estimated as 8 larvae per cm(2).

Effect of temperature, food availability, and estradiol injection on gametogenesis and gender in the pearl oyster Pinctada margaritifera

The black-lip pearl oyster Pinctada margaritifera is a protandrous hermaphrodite species. Its economic value has led to the development of controlled hatchery reproduction techniques, although many aspects remain to be optimized. In order to understand reproductive mechanisms and their controlling factors, two independent experiments were designed to test hypotheses of gametogenesis and sex ratio control by environmental and hormonal factors. In one, pearl oysters were exposed under controlled conditions at different combinations of temperature (24 and 28°C) and food level (10,000 and 40,000 cells mL−1); whereas in the other, pearl oysters were conditioned under natural conditions into the lagoon and subjected to successive 17β-estradiol injections (100 μg per injection). Gametogenesis and sex ratio were assessed by histology for each treatment. In parallel, mRNA expressions of nine marker genes of the sexual pathway (pmarg-foxl2, pmarg-c43476, pmarg-c45042, pmarg-c19309, pmarg-c54338, pmarg-vit6, pmarg-zglp1, pmarg-dmrt, and pmarg-fem1-like) were investigated. Maximum maturation was observed in the treatment combining the highest temperature (28°C) and the highest microalgae concentration (40,000 cells mL−1), where the female sex tended to be maintained. Injection of 17β-estradiol induced a significant increase of undetermined stage proportion 2 weeks after the final injection. These results suggest that gametogenesis and gender in adult pearl oysters can be controlled by environmental factors and estrogens. While there were no significant effects on relative gene expression, the 3-gene-pair expression ratio model of the sexual pathway of P. margaritifera, suggest a probable dominance of genetic sex determinism without excluding a mixed sex determination mode (genetic + environmental)

Habitat traits and food availability determine the response of marine invertebrates to ocean acidification

Energy availability and local adaptation are major components in mediating the effects of ocean acidification (OA) on marine species. In a long-term study, we investigated the effects of food availability and elevated pCO2 (ca 400, 1000 and 3000 µatm) on growth of newly settled Amphibalanus (Balanus) improvisus to reproduction, and on their offspring. We also compared two different populations, which were presumed to differ in their sensitivity to pCO2 due to differing habitat conditions: Kiel Fjord, Germany (Western Baltic Sea) with naturally strong pCO2 fluctuations, and the Tjärnö Archipelago, Sweden (Skagerrak) with far lower fluctuations. Over 20 weeks, survival, growth, reproduction and shell strength of Kiel barnacles were all unaffected by elevated pCO2, regardless of food availability. Moulting frequency and shell corrosion increased with increasing pCO2 in adults. Larval development and juvenile growth of the F1 generation were tolerant to increased pCO2, irrespective of parental treatment. In contrast, elevated pCO2 had a strong negative impact on survival of Tjärnö barnacles. Specimens from this population were able to withstand moderate levels of elevated pCO2 over 5 weeks when food was plentiful but showed reduced growth under food limitation. Severe levels of elevated pCO2 negatively impacted growth of Tjärnö barnacles in both food treatments. We demonstrate a conspicuously higher tolerance to elevated pCO2 in Kiel barnacles than in Tjärnö barnacles. This tolerance was carried-over from adults to their offspring. Our findings indicate that populations from fluctuating pCO2 environments are more tolerant to elevated pCO2 than populations from more stable pCO2 habitats. We furthermore provide evidence that energy availability can mediate the ability of barnacles to withstand moderate CO2 stress. Considering the high tolerance of Kiel specimens and the possibility to adapt over many generations, near future OA alone does not seem to present a major threat for A. improvisus

Ethnic differences in food availability at home among 3--5 year old preschoolers attending Head Start centers in 2008

Background. The childhood obesity epidemic has disproportionately impacted the lives of low-income, minority preschoolers and their families. Research shows that parents play a major role as "gatekeepers" who control what food is brought into the home and as role models for dietary practices. Currently, there is limited research regarding ethnic differences in families of low-income preschoolers. ^ Objective. The objective of this study was to look at ethnic differences in food availability at home among the low-income families of Hispanic and African American preschoolers attending Head Start centers in Harris County, Texas. ^ Design/Subjects. Descriptive data on food availability at home between Hispanic and African American families were used and analyzed for this study. Parents or primary caregivers (n = 718) of children enrolled at Head Start Centers in Houston, Texas completed the Healthy Home Survey. ^ Methods. In the Healthy Home Survey, participants were asked to answer open-ended questions regarding various types of foods currently available at home, such as fresh, canned or jarred, dried and frozen fruits; fresh, canned or jarred, and frozen vegetables; salty snacks, sweet snacks, candy, and soda. Descriptive analyses were conducted to identify significant differences between Hispanics and African Americans via a paired t-test to compare the means of variables between the study groups and a Pearson's chi-square or Fischer's exact (if cell size was <5) test calculated for food availability (food types) between ethnicities to determine differences in distributions. ^ Results. Although both Hispanics and African Americans reported having all categories of food types at home, there were statistically significant differences between ethnic groups. Hispanics were more likely to have fresh fruits and vegetables at home than African Americans. At the same time, more African American families reported having canned or jarred fruits and canned green/leafy vegetables than Hispanics. More Hispanic families reported having diet, regular, and both diet and regular sodas available compared to African American families. However, high percentages of unhealthy foods (including snacks and candy) were reported by both ethnicities. ^ Conclusions. The findings presented in this study indicate the implicit ethnic differences that exist in the food availability among low-income families of Hispanic and African American preschoolers. Future research should investigate the associations between food availability and children's weight status by ethnicity to identify additional differences that may exist.^

Nutritional status of lactating mothers and their children 6-23 months of age in pre- and post-harvest seasons in two agro-ecological zones of rural Ethiopia

The objective of this study was to assess seasonal variation in nutritional status and feeding practices among lactating mothers and their children 6-23 months of age in two different agro-ecological zones of rural Ethiopia (lowland zone and midland zone). Food availability and access are strongly affected by seasonality in Ethiopia. However, there are few published data on the effects of seasonal food fluctuations on nutritional status and dietary diversity patterns of mothers and children in rural Ethiopia. A longitudinal study was conducted among 216 mothers in two agro-ecological zones of rural Ethiopia during pre and post-harvest seasons. Data were collected on many parameters including anthropometry, blood levels of haemoglobin and ferritin and zinc, urinary iodine levels, questionnaire data regarding demographic and household parameters and health issues, and infant and young child feeding practices, 24 h food recall to determine dietary diversity scores, and household use of iodized salt. Chi-square and multivariable regression models were used to identify independent predictors of nutritional status. A wide variety of results were generated including the following highlights. It was found that 95.4% of children were breastfed, of whom 59.7% were initially breastfed within one hour of birth, 22.2% received pre-lacteal feeds, and 50.9% of children received complementary feedings by 6 months of age. Iron deficiency was found in 44.4% of children and 19.8% of mothers. Low Zinc status was found in 72.2% of children and 67.3% of mothers. Of the study subjects, 52.5% of the children and 19.1% of the mothers were anaemic, and 29.6% of children and 10.5% of mothers had iron deficiency anaemia. Among the mothers with low serum iron status, 81.2% and 56.2% of their children had low serum zinc and iron, respectively. Similarly, among the low serum zinc status mothers, 75.2% and 45.3% of their children had low serum in zinc and iron, respectively. There was a strong correlation between the micronutrient status of the mothers and the children for ferritin, zinc and haemoglobin (P <0.001). There was also statistically significant difference between agro-ecological zones for micronutrient deficiencies among the mothers (p<0.001) but not for their children. The majority (97.6%) of mothers in the lowland zone were deficient in at least one micronutrient biomarker (zinc or ferritin or haemoglobin). Deficiencies in one, two, or all three biomarkers of micronutrient status were observed in 48.1%, 16.7% and 9.9% of mothers and 35.8%, 29.0%, and 23.5%, of children, respectively. Additionally, about 42.6% of mothers had low levels of urinary iodine and 35.2% of lactating mothers had goitre. Total goitre prevalence rates and urinary iodine levels of lactating mothers were not significantly different across agro-ecological zones. Adequately iodised salt was available in 36.6% of households. The prevalence of anaemia increased from post-harvest (21.8%) to pre-harvest seasons (40.9%) among lactating mothers. Increases were from 8.6% to 34.4% in midland and from 34.2% to 46.3% in lowland agro-ecological zones. Fifteen percent of mothers were anaemic during both seasons. Predictors of anaemia were high parity of mother and low dietary diversity. The proportion of stunted and underweight children increased from 39.8% and 27% in post-harvest season to 46.0% and 31.8% in pre-harvest season, respectively. However, wasting in children decreased from 11.6% to 8.5%. Major variations in stunting and underweight were noted in midland compared to lowland agroecological zones. Anthropometric measurements in mothers indicated high levels of undernutrition. The prevalence of undernutrition in mothers (BMI <18.5kg/m2) increased from 41.7 to 54.7% between post- and pre-harvest seasons. The seasonal effect was generally higher in the midland community for all forms of malnutrition. Parity, number of children under five years and regional variation were predictors of low BMI among lactating mothers. There were differences in minimum meal frequency, minimum acceptable diet and dietary diversity in children in pre-harvest and post-harvest seasons and these parameters were poor in both seasons. Dietary diversity among mothers was higher in lowland zone but was poor in both zones across the seasons. In conclusion, malnutrition and micronutrient deficiencies are very prevalent among lactating mothers and their children 6-23 months old in the study areas. There are significant seasonal variations in malnutrition and dietary diversity, in addition to significant differences between lowland and midland agro-ecological zones. These findings suggest a need to design effective preventive public health nutrition programs to address both the mothers’ and children’s needs particularly in the preharvest season.

Variations between post- and pre-harvest seasons in stunting, wasting, and Infant and Young Child Feeding (IYCF) practices among children 6-23 months of age in lowland and midland agro-ecological zones of rural Ethiopia

Introduction: Food availability and access are strongly affected by seasonality in Ethiopia. However, there are little data on seasonal variation in Infant and Young Child Feeding (IYCF) practices and malnutrition among 6-23 months old children in different agro-ecological zones of rural Ethiopia. Methods: Socio-demographic, anthropometry and IYCF indicators were assessed in post- and pre-harvest seasons among children aged 6–23 months of age randomly selected from rural villages of lowland and midland agro-ecological zones. Results: Child stunting and underweight increased from prevalence of 39.8% and 26.9% in post-harvest to 46.0% and 31.8% in pre-harvest seasons, respectively. The biggest increase in prevalence of stunting and underweight between post- and pre-harvest seasons was noted in the midland zone. Wasting decreased from 11.6% post-harvest to 8.5% pre-harvest, with the biggest decline recorded in the lowland zone. Minimum meal frequency, minimum acceptable diet and poor dietary diversity increased considerably in pre-harvest compared to post-harvest season in the lowland zone. Feeding practices and maternal age were predictors of wasting, while women’s dietary diversity and children age was predictor of child dietary diversity in both seasons. Conclusion: There is seasonal variation in malnutrition and IYCF practices among children 6-23 months of age with more pronounced effect in midland agro-ecological zone. A major contributing factor for child malnutrition may be poor feeding practices. Health information strategies focused on both IYCF practices and dietary diversity of mothers could be a sensible approach to reduce the burden of child malnutrition in rural Ethiopia.

Smoking status as a moderator of the association between food insecurity and decreased fruit and vegetable consumption

Food insecurity is the inadequate access to, or availability of, sufficient amounts of nutritious, culturally-appropriate and safe foods, or the inability to acquire such foods by socially acceptable means. Food insecurity has been shown to be associated with poor dietary intakes and poor health status. Recently, evidence has emerged suggesting increased rates of food insecurity among those with substance abuse problems, including those who smoke. This cross-sectional study investigates the potential moderating effect of smoking on the association between food insecurity and fruit and vegetable intakes among the Australian population, using regression analyses. Participants were adults 18 years and older participating in the 2004/05 National Health Survey (n = 19,500). Those from food insecure households were up to two-times more likely to report inadequate fruit and vegetable intakes compared to those who were food secure. Those who smoked were nearly six times more likely to report being food insecure, and up to three-times more likely to report inadequate fruit and vegetable intakes, compared to their non-smoking counterparts. Further analyses revealed a marked decline in the strength of the association between food insecurity and fruit consumption with the addition of smoking status into a regression model. These findings have important implications for the development of policy and interventions to address food insecurity, suggesting that those from food insecure households are less likely to comply with national dietary recommendations, and that this may in part be moderated by smoking status.

Food availability, cost disparity and improvement in relation to accessibility and remoteness in Queensland

This study is the first to describe disparity and change in the food supply between metropolitan, rural and remote stores by Accessibility/Remoteness Index of Australia (ARIA)1 category. A total of 92 stores (97% response rate) within five aggregate ARIA categories participated throughout Queensland in 2000. There was a strong association between ARIA category and the cost of the basket of basic foods, with prices being significantly higher (20% and 31% respectively) in the ‘remote’ and ‘very remote’ categories than in the ‘highly accessible’ category. The association with ARIA was less marked for fruit and vegetables than for other food groups, but not for tobacco and take-away food items. Basic food items were less available in the more remote stores. Over the past two years, relative improvements in food prices have been seen in stores in the ‘very remote’ category, with observed increases less than the consumer price index (CPI) for food. Some factors which may have contributed to this improvement are discussed.

Community water access, availability and management in the Tonle Sap region, Cambodia.

During the rollout of CGIAR Research Program on Aquatic Agricultural Systems (AAS) in Tonle Sap in 2013, water management was highlighted as one of the key development challenges. With limited capacity to regulate water, the situation oscillates between too much water in the wet season and too little water in the dry season. Access to and availability of water were seen by local communities as major limitations for aquatic and agricultural production, impacting on functions that include the lake fishery, intensive (dry season) rice crops, recession rice, rainfed rice and floating rice by the lakeside. For both fish and rice production, water and water management are determined principally by the natural flooding of the Tonle Sap Lake. This study is based on a community survey on water access, availability and management and was conceived out of the AAS consultation process and was developed to help identify existing practices in water use and management, as well as best practices where lessons can be learned and promising activities scaled out to other communities. The community survey also aims to understand, identify and analyze constraints and opportunities related to water, and includes a gender perspective to better understand the role of women in water management and use.