Drivers of the distribution of fisher effort at Lake Alaotra, Madagascar

Understanding how fishers make decisions is important for improving management of fisheries. There is debate about the extent to which small-scale fishers follow an ideal free distribution (IFD) - distributing their fishing effort efficiently according to resource availability rather than being influenced by social factors or personal preference. Using detailed data from 1800 fisher catches and from semi-structured interviews with over 700 fishers at Lake Alaotra, the largest inland fishery in Madagascar, we show that fishers generally conform to IFD. However, there were differences in catch: effort relationships between fishers using different gear types as well as other revealing deviations from the predictions of IFD. Fishers report routine as the primary determinant of their choice of fishing location, explaining why they do not quickly respond to changes in catch at a site. Understanding the influences on fishers' spatial behaviour will allow better estimates of costs of fishing policies on resource users, and help predict their likely responses. This can inform management strategies to minimise the negative impacts of interventions, increasing local support for and compliance with rules.

New variational Bayesian approaches for statistical data mining : with applications to profiling and differentiating habitual consumption behaviour of customers in the wireless telecommunication industry

This thesis investigates profiling and differentiating customers through the use of statistical data mining techniques. The business application of our work centres on examining individuals’ seldomly studied yet critical consumption behaviour over an extensive time period within the context of the wireless telecommunication industry; consumption behaviour (as oppose to purchasing behaviour) is behaviour that has been performed so frequently that it become habitual and involves minimal intentions or decision making. Key variables investigated are the activity initialised timestamp and cell tower location as well as the activity type and usage quantity (e.g., voice call with duration in seconds); and the research focuses are on customers’ spatial and temporal usage behaviour. The main methodological emphasis is on the development of clustering models based on Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) which are fitted with the use of the recently developed variational Bayesian (VB) method. VB is an efficient deterministic alternative to the popular but computationally demandingMarkov chainMonte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The standard VBGMMalgorithm is extended by allowing component splitting such that it is robust to initial parameter choices and can automatically and efficiently determine the number of components. The new algorithm we propose allows more effective modelling of individuals’ highly heterogeneous and spiky spatial usage behaviour, or more generally human mobility patterns; the term spiky describes data patterns with large areas of low probability mixed with small areas of high probability. Customers are then characterised and segmented based on the fitted GMM which corresponds to how each of them uses the products/services spatially in their daily lives; this is essentially their likely lifestyle and occupational traits. Other significant research contributions include fitting GMMs using VB to circular data i.e., the temporal usage behaviour, and developing clustering algorithms suitable for high dimensional data based on the use of VB-GMM.

Assessing the spatial and temporal variation in the skill of precipitation forecasts from an NWP model

It is becoming increasingly important to be able to verify the spatial accuracy of precipitation forecasts, especially with the advent of high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In this article, the fractions skill score (FSS) approach has been used to perform a scale-selective evaluation of precipitation forecasts during 2003 from the Met Office mesoscale model (12 km grid length). The investigation shows how skill varies with spatial scale, the scales over which the data assimilation (DA) adds most skill, and how the loss of that skill is dependent on both the spatial scale and the rainfall coverage being examined. Although these results come from a specific model, they demonstrate how this verification approach can provide a quantitative assessment of the spatial behaviour of new finer-resolution models and DA techniques.

Residency and spatial use by reef sharks of an isolated seamount and its implications for conservation

Although marine protected areas (MPAs) are a common conservation strategy, these areas are often designed with little prior knowledge of the spatial behaviour of the species they are designed to protect. Currently, the Coral Sea area and its seamounts (north-east Australia) are under review to determine if MPAs are warranted. The protection of sharks at these seamounts should be an integral component of conservation plans. Therefore, knowledge on the spatial ecology of sharks at the Coral Sea seamounts is essential for the appropriate implementation of management and conservation plans. Acoustic telemetry was used to determine residency, site fidelity and spatial use of three shark species at Osprey Reef: whitetip reef sharks Triaenodon obesus, grey reef sharks Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos and silvertip sharks Carcharhinus albimarginatus. Most individuals showed year round residency at Osprey Reef, although five of the 49 individuals tagged moved to the neighbouring Shark Reef (∼14 km away) and one grey reef shark completed a round trip of ∼250 km to the Great Barrier Reef. Additionally, individuals of white tip and grey reef sharks showed strong site fidelity to the areas they were tagged, and there was low spatial overlap between groups of sharks tagged at different locations. Spatial use at Osprey Reef by adult sharks is generally restricted to the north-west corner. The high residency and limited spatial use of Osprey Reef suggests that reef sharks would be highly vulnerable to targeted fishing pressure and that MPAs incorporating no-take of sharks would be effective in protecting reef shark populations at Osprey and Shark Reef.

The short-term effects of a routine poisoning campaign on the movements and detectability of a social top-predator

Top-predators can be important components of resilient ecosystems, but they are still controlled in many places to mitigate a variety of economic, environmental and/or social impacts. Lethal control is often achieved through the broad-scale application of poisoned baits. Understanding the direct and indirect effects of such lethal control on subsequent movements and behaviour of survivors is an important pre-requisite for interpreting the efficacy and ecological outcomes of top-predator control. In this study, we use GPS tracking collars to investigate the fine-scale and short-term movements of dingoes (Canis lupus dingo and other wild dogs) in response to a routine poison-baiting program as an example of how a common, social top-predator can respond (behaviourally) to moderate levels of population reduction. We found no consistent control-induced differences in home range size or location, daily distance travelled, speed of travel, temporal activity patterns or road/trail usage for the seven surviving dingoes we monitored immediately before and after a typical lethal control event. These data suggest that the spatial behaviour of surviving dingoes was not altered in ways likely to affect their detectability, and if control-induced changes in dingoes' ecological function did occur, these may not be related to altered spatial behaviour or movement patterns.

Nonsmooth geometry and collapse of flexible structures under smooth loads

While static equilibria of flexible strings subject to various load types (gravity, hydrostatic pressure, Newtonian wind) is well understood textbook material, the combinations of the very same loads can give rise to complex spatial behaviour at the core of which is the unilateral material constraint prohibiting compressive loads. While the effects of such constraints have been explored in optimisation problems involving straight cables, the geometric complexity of physical configurations has not yet been addressed. Here we show that flexible strings subject to combined smooth loads may not have smooth solutions in certain ranges of the load ratios. This non-smooth phenomenon is closely related to the collapse geometry of inflated tents. After proving the nonexistence of smooth solutions for a broad family of loadings we identify two alternative, critical geometries immediately preceding the collapse. We verify these analytical results by dynamical simulation of flexible chains as well as with simple table-top experiments with an inflated membrane.

The physical environment and organizational behavior

Research into organizational behaviour has indicated that there is an inevitable conflict between the needs of the individual and organizational demands. Psychologists have given insights into basic individual needs and contend that satisfaction of these needs constitutes a motivating force which enhances desired behavioural patterns. Behaviouralists have suggested that a basic and pervasive individual need is the culturally determined need for privacy. Anthropologists and environmental psychologists have shown that man's spatial behaviour is observable and predictable and that changes in the physical environment or the way it is perceived are accompanied by concommitant changes in behaviour. Research findings from each of the disciplines have been reviewed in an attempt to show that the physical environment is a significant factor in satisfying the needs of the individual organizational member, hence, a significant influence on organizational behaviour. A model has been generated to show the relationship between the physical setting and behaviour and to underscore the importance of making provisions within the physical setting for the attainment of a culturally determined optimal level of privacy. The physical setting, by providing for this need, becomes a significant factor in reducing the conflict between the individual and the organization and makes for acceptable role behaviour and the fulfilment of organizational goals.

Industria y concentración de cultivos: la contribución de la industria del frío en la fruticultura leridana

Para avanzar en el estudio de la concentración espacial de cultivos, se ha elegido el caso de la manzana, la pera y el melocotón en Lleida, desde 1962 a 2000. La evolución de ese fenómeno se ha estudiado mediante técnicas de equilibrio espacial y análisis shift share, encontrándose una pauta espacial de comportamiento distinta entre la manzana y la pera por una parte y el melocotón por otro. En el caso de las técnicas shift share se ha modelado el efecto diferencial como el resultado de un juego de suma nula, y suponiendo que las transferencias de efectos son más probables hacia las regiones más cercanas, se ha avanzado una explicación de las transferencias de superficie que se produjeron entre 1962 y 2000. La diferencia encontrada en el distinto comportamiento espacial de esos cultivos se ha atribuido a la susceptibilidad de cada cultivo para ser conservado frigoríficamente. Se ha desarrollado un modelo que relaciona los incrementos de la capacidad en la industria frigorífica y de la superficie.

Do animals have cognitive maps?

Drawing on studies of humans, rodents, birds and arthropods, I show that 'cognitive maps' have been used to describe a wide variety of spatial concepts. There are, however, two main definitions. One, sensu Tolman, O'Keefe and Nadel, is that a cognitive map is a powerful memory of landmarks which allows novel short-cutting to occur. The other, sensu Gallistel, is that a cognitive map is any representation of space held by an animal. Other definitions with quite different meanings are also summarised. I argue that no animal has been conclusively shown to have a cognitive map, sensu Tolman, O'Keefe and Nadel, because simpler explanations of the crucial novel short-cutting results are invariably possible. Owing to the repeated inability of experimenters to eliminate these simpler explanations over at least 15 years, and the confusion caused by the numerous contradictory definitions of a cognitive map. I argue that the cognitive map is no longer a useful hypothesis for elucidating the spatial behaviour of animals and that use of the term should be avoided.

Sex-biased space-use response to urbanization in an endemic urban adapter

Urbanization impacts on the composition and distribution of wildlife. The tawny frogmouth (Podargus strigoides) is an endemic, nocturnal bird species widespread throughout Australia with recent research highlighting high densities within urban environments. The aim of this study was to investigate homerange size and land-use in response to a gradient of urbanization by determining (a) the key land-use types influencing home-range size and location in the urban landscape (b) whether urbanization impacts on home-range size; and (c) whether the response to urbanization is gender specific. Twelve birds, seven male and five female were radio-tracked within a study zone located in Melbourne, Australia. We used minimum convex polygons (MCP) 95% and 50% fixed-kernel isopleths to calculate home-range size and areas of core use within each home-range. In both the landscape and core areas of their home-range, birds positioned their home-range in areas with more trees, avoiding impervious surfaces and utilizing grassed areas. Male mean kernel home-range was 17.65 ± 4.35 ha and female 6.55 ± 1.40 ha. Male home-ranges contained higher levels of impervious surfaces than females. Modelling demonstrated that as urbanization intensified the home-range size of males increased whereas female home-ranges remained static in size. This research identifies land-use selection and highlights the possibility that spatial behaviour in the species is sex-biased in response to a gradient of urbanization. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

Relações entre estrutura sócio-espacial e fluxos gênicos em uma população de mouflons mediterrâneos (Ovis gmelini)

Pós-graduação em Genética e Melhoramento Animal - FCAV

Conocimientos científicos importantes para la conservación y gestión de las tres especies de liebre de la Península Ibérica: deficiencias y retos para el futuro

Los principales avances en el conocimiento de las tres especies de liebre presentes en la Península Ibérica (dos de ellas endémicas) tuvieron lugar a finales del siglo XX con la realización de estudios sobre genética, morfología y ecología descriptiva. Durante los años 90 y 2000, se ha profundizado fundamentalmente en aspectos genéticos y evolutivos, en la definición de factores ambientales determinantes de su distribución, en el estado sanitario y en el comportamiento espacial. En lo que respecta a los estudios sobre dinámica poblacional, se dispone únicamente de trabajos locales con metodologías diversas y series de datos generalmente cortas, lo que impide realizar una interpretación conjunta y sólida de los datos. Esta falta de información conlleva que las bases técnicas para determinar un adecuado aprovechamiento cinegético sean en la mayoría de los casos insuficientes. Además, las tres especies se encuentran fuertemente ligadas al medio agrícola y ganadero, por lo que determinar los factores relativos al manejo de estos medios que afectan a las liebres resulta esencial, especialmente debido al declive general de la mayor parte de las especies silvestres ligadas a estos espacios. ¿Será el sector científico-técnico capaz de avanzar en el conocimiento de la dinámica poblacional y el efecto del manejo agroganadero para una mejor gestión de las liebres ibéricas?

To link or not to link: a test of the case linkage principles using serial car theft data

The purpose of the present study is to test the case linkage principles of behavioural consistency and behavioural distinctiveness using serial vehicle theft data. Data from 386 solved vehicle thefts committed by 193 offenders were analysed using Jaccard's, regression and Receiver Operating Characteristic analyses to determine whether objectively observable aspects of crime scene behaviour could be used to distinguish crimes committed by the same offender from those committed by different offenders. The findings indicate that spatial behaviour, specifically the distance between theft locations and between dump locations, is a highly consistent and distinctive aspect of vehicle theft behaviour; thus, intercrime and interdump distance represent the most useful aspects of vehicle theft for the purpose of case linkage analysis. The findings have theoretical and practical implications for understanding of criminal behaviour and for the development of decision-support tools to assist police investigation and apprehension of serial vehicle theft offenders.

EFEITOS DE CENÁRIOS DE USO DO SOLO NA VAZÃO E PRODUÇÃO DE SEDIMENTOS NA BACIA DO RIO COBRES, PORTUGAL

Introdução Caracterização da área de estudo Materiais e métodos O modelo SWAT Dados de chuva, vazão e produção de sedimentos Tipos de solos e determinação dos parâmetros do SWAT Análises Estatísticas Cenários de Uso do Solo Resultados e discussões Estimativa da Vazão Estimativa da produção de sedimentos Modelagem Hidrossedimentológica em Diferentes Cenários Conclusões Referências bibliográficas RESUMO – A erosão dos solos é um dos mais graves problemas ambientais em todo o mundo, principalmente em regiões semiáridas que sofrem com a variabilidade espaço-temporal da precipitação. Este artigo analisou os processos hidrossedimentológicos na Bacia do Rio Cobres, localizada na porção semiárida de Portugal, utilizando o modelo SWAT. Neste estudo foram utilizados dados diários de precipitação, temperatura, umidade do ar, vazão e produção de sedimentos, para o período de 1960 a 2000, mapas digitais de elevação do terreno com resolução espacial de 90 m, uso e ocupação do solo e tipos de solo da bacia. Os resultados demonstraram a eficácia do modelo na calibração da vazão, com Coeficiente de Determinação (R²) = 0,81 e Coeficiente de Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) = 0,63, e também para produção de sedimentos com R² = 0,62 e NS = 0,47. O Cenário 3 (Mata) apresentou o maior decréscimo na vazão média, em relação aos Cenários 1 (Real) e 2 (Pastagem). Conclui-se que o modelo SWAT acoplado ao SIG é uma ferramenta poderosa na análise espaço-temporal do comportamento dos processos hidrossedimentológicos. Palavas-chave: SIG, modelo hidrossedimentológico, erosão ABSTRACT – Effects of Scenarios of Land Use on Runoff and Sediment Yield for Cobres River Basin, Portugal. Soil erosion is a major environmental problem worldwide, mainly in semiarid regions that suffer with rainfall spatial and temporal variability. Thus, this paper analysed the runoff-erosion process at the Cobres River Basin, located in semiarid portion of Portugal, using the SWAT model. In this paper, rainfall, temperature and humidity data from 1960 to 2000, and digital maps of land cover, terrain digital elevation model with spatial resolution of 90 m, soil types were used. The results showed the effectiveness of the model for the runoff calibration, with R² = 0.81 and NS = 0.63, and also for sediment yield with R² = 0.62 and NS = 0.47. Scenario 1 (Forest) had the highest decrease in average streamflow, in relation to the Scenarios 1 (Real) and 2 (Pasture) scenarios. It is concluded that the SWAT model coupled to GIS is a powerful tool in the analysis of temporal and spatial behaviour of runoff-erosion processes.

Fractional models for the migration of biological cells in complex spatial domains

Travelling wave phenomena are observed in many biological applications. Mathematical theory of standard reaction-diffusion problems shows that simple partial differential equations exhibit travelling wave solutions with constant wavespeed and such models are used to describe, for example, waves of chemical concentrations, electrical signals, cell migration, waves of epidemics and population dynamics. However, as in the study of cell motion in complex spatial geometries, experimental data are often not consistent with constant wavespeed. Non-local spatial models have successfully been used to model anomalous diffusion and spatial heterogeneity in different physical contexts. In this paper, we develop a fractional model based on the Fisher-Kolmogoroff equation and analyse it for its wavespeed properties, attempting to relate the numerical results obtained from our simulations to experimental data describing enteric neural crest-derived cells migrating along the intact gut of mouse embryos. The model proposed essentially combines fractional and standard diffusion in different regions of the spatial domain and qualitatively reproduces the behaviour of neural crest-derived cells observed in the caecum and the hindgut of mouse embryos during in vivo experiments.