An entropy-based financial decision support system (e-FDSS) for project analysis in construction SMEs

Uncertainty contributes a major part in the accuracy of a decision-making process while its inconsistency is always difficult to be solved by existing decision-making tools. Entropy has been proved to be useful to evaluate the inconsistency of uncertainty among different respondents. The study demonstrates an entropy-based financial decision support system called e-FDSS. This integrated system provides decision support to evaluate attributes (funding options and multiple risks) available in projects. Fuzzy logic theory is included in the system to deal with the qualitative aspect of these options and risks. An adaptive genetic algorithm (AGA) is also employed to solve the decision algorithm in the system in order to provide optimal and consistent rates to these attributes. Seven simplified and parallel projects from a Hong Kong construction small and medium enterprise (SME) were assessed to evaluate the system. The result shows that the system calculates risk adjusted discount rates (RADR) of projects in an objective way. These rates discount project cash flow impartially. Inconsistency of uncertainty is also successfully evaluated by the use of the entropy method. Finally, the system identifies the favourable funding options that are managed by a scheme called SME Loan Guarantee Scheme (SGS). Based on these results, resource allocation could then be optimized and the best time to start a new project could also be identified throughout the overall project life cycle.

Financial decision making about found oil and gas in Ghana : real options vs. traditional methods

This research is a study of the use of capital budgeting methods for investment decisions. It uses both the traditional methods and the newly introduced approach called the real options analysis to make a decision. The research elucidates how capital budgeting can be done when analysts encounter projects with high uncertainty and are capital intensive, for example oil and gas production. It then uses the oil and gas find in Ghana as a case study to support its argument. For a clear understanding a thorough literature review was done, which highlights the advantages and disadvantages of both methods. The revenue that the project will generate and the costs of production were obtained from the predictions by analysts from GNPC and compared to others experts’ opinion. It then applied both the traditional and real option valuation on the oil and gas find in Ghana to determine the project’s feasibility. Although, there are some short falls in real option analysis that are presented in this research, it is still helpful in valuing projects that are capital intensive with high volatility due to the strategic flexibility management possess in their decision making. It also suggests that traditional methods of evaluation should still be maintained and be used to value projects that have no options or those with options yet the options do not have significant impact on the project. The research points out the economic ripples the production of oil and gas will have on Ghana’s economy should the project be undertaken. These ripples include economic growth, massive job creation and reduction of the balance of trade deficit for the country. The long run effect is an eventually improvement of life of the citizens. It is also belief that the production of gas specifically can be used to generate electricity in Ghana which would enable the country to have a more stable and reliable power source necessary to attract more foreign direct investment.

Essays on the impact of stakeholders' sentiment on the financial decision making process

The most important factor that affects the decision making process in finance is the risk which is usually measured by variance (total risk) or systematic risk (beta). Since investors’ sentiment (whether she is an optimist or pessimist) plays a very important role in the choice of beta measure, any decision made for the same asset within the same time horizon will be different for different individuals. In other words, there will neither be homogeneity of beliefs nor the rational expectation prevalent in the market due to behavioral traits. This dissertation consists of three essays. In the first essay, “ Investor Sentiment and Intrinsic Stock Prices”, a new technical trading strategy was developed using a firm specific individual sentiment measure. This behavioral based trading strategy forecasts a range within which a stock price moves in a particular period and can be used for stock trading. Results indicate that sample firms trade within a range and give signals as to when to buy or sell. In the second essay, “Managerial Sentiment and the Value of the Firm”, examined the effect of managerial sentiment on the project selection process using net present value criterion and also effect of managerial sentiment on the value of firm. Final analysis reported that high sentiment and low sentiment managers obtain different values for the same firm before and after the acceptance of a project. Changes in the cost of capital, weighted cost of average capital were found due to managerial sentiment. In the last essay, “Investor Sentiment and Optimal Portfolio Selection”, analyzed how the investor sentiment affects the nature and composition of the optimal portfolio as well as the portfolio performance. Results suggested that the choice of the investor sentiment completely changes the portfolio composition, i.e., the high sentiment investor will have a completely different choice of assets in the portfolio in comparison with the low sentiment investor. The results indicated the practical application of behavioral model based technical indicator for stock trading. Additional insights developed include the valuation of firms with a behavioral component and the importance of distinguishing portfolio performance based on sentiment factors.

Essays on the Impact of Stakeholders' Sentiment on the Financial Decision Making Process

The most important factor that affects the decision making process in finance is the risk which is usually measured by variance (total risk) or systematic risk (beta). Since investors' sentiment (whether she is an optimist or pessimist) plays a very important role in the choice of beta measure, any decision made for the same asset within the same time horizon will be different for different individuals. In other words, there will neither be homogeneity of beliefs nor the rational expectation prevalent in the market due to behavioral traits. This dissertation consists of three essays. In the first essay, Investor Sentiment and Intrinsic Stock Prices, a new technical trading strategy is developed using a firm specific individual sentiment measure. This behavioral based trading strategy forecasts a range within which a stock price moves in a particular period and can be used for stock trading. Results show that sample firms trade within a range and show signals as to when to buy or sell. The second essay, Managerial Sentiment and the Value of the Firm, examines the effect of managerial sentiment on the project selection process using net present value criterion and also effect of managerial sentiment on the value of firm. Findings show that high sentiment and low sentiment managers obtain different values for the same firm before and after the acceptance of a project. The last essay, Investor Sentiment and Optimal Portfolio Selection, analyzes how the investor sentiment affects the nature and composition of the optimal portfolio as well as the performance measures. Results suggest that the choice of the investor sentiment completely changes the portfolio composition, i.e., the high sentiment investor will have a completely different choice of assets in the portfolio in comparison with the low sentiment investor. The results indicate the practical application of behavioral model based technical indicators for stock trading. Additional insights developed include the valuation of firms with a behavioral component and the importance of distinguishing portfolio performance based on sentiment factors.

Attitudes towards risk in financial decision making

Doutoramento em Gestão

Corporate decision-making: A case study of decision support systems and financial performance in health care organizations

The purpose of this study was twofold: (1) To describe the relation of the intensity of DSS implementation to financial performance as an empirical exploration of improved performance at the organizational level. (2) To describe the relation of the intensity of DSS implementation to the type of organizational decision culture. A multiple case study design was utilized to compare three groups of paired cases. A pattern matching strategy was applied in this study. Four predictions were specified and compared to the empirical data. A progressively upward trend in the scores was predicted for the following theoretical relationships. (1) The greater the number of DSSs, the higher the sophistication index. (2) The greater the number of DSSs, the higher the financial ratios. (3) The greater the number of DSSs, the higher the culture score. (4) The higher the culture score, the higher the financial ratios. The data did not support any of the predicted trends except the relation between the number of DSSs and the financial ratios. The Income/Revenue ratio indicates the efficiency of a company's operations. One would expect that this ratio would be most affected by the operational and financial decision support systems. The majority of the systems measured in the study supported decisions tangential to the patient service areas. The evidence suggested that the type and number of decision support systems affects the bottom line. ^

Effects of stress on economic decision-making: Evidence from laboratory experiments

The ways in which preferences respond to the varying stress of economic environments is a key question for behavioral economics and public policy. We conducted a laboratory experiment to investigate the effects of stress on financial decision making among individuals aged 50 and older. Using the cold pressor task as a physiological stressor, and a series of intelligence tests as cognitive stressors, we find that stress increases subjective discounting rates, has no effect on the degree of risk-aversion, and substantially lowers the effort individuals make to learn about financial decisions.

Selection of funding schemes by a borrowing decision model: a Hong Kong case study

In financial decision-making, a number of mathematical models have been developed for financial management in construction. However, optimizing both qualitative and quantitative factors and the semi-structured nature of construction finance optimization problems are key challenges in solving construction finance decisions. The selection of funding schemes by a modified construction loan acquisition model is solved by an adaptive genetic algorithm (AGA) approach. The basic objectives of the model are to optimize the loan and to minimize the interest payments for all projects. Multiple projects being undertaken by a medium-size construction firm in Hong Kong were used as a real case study to demonstrate the application of the model to the borrowing decision problems. A compromise monthly borrowing schedule was finally achieved. The results indicate that Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) Loan Guarantee Scheme (SGS) was first identified as the source of external financing. Selection of sources of funding can then be made to avoid the possibility of financial problems in the firm by classifying qualitative factors into external, interactive and internal types and taking additional qualitative factors including sovereignty, credit ability and networking into consideration. Thus a more accurate, objective and reliable borrowing decision can be provided for the decision-maker to analyse the financial options.

The use and usefulness of financial assistance to UK SMEs

Existing literature has paid considerable attention to the effects of supporting programmes on the survival and performance of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), but it lacks a deep understanding of the benefits of the use of such assistance and the factors influencing the evaluation of such services from the perspective of SMEs. We examine the factors affecting the propensity to use assistance when SMEs make financial decisions and the usefulness perceived by the users. We examine 2500 UK SMEs and find that the use of assistance and the usefulness of such services, as perceived by SMEs, are much related to: the characteristics of the entrepreneur, the nature of the business, and the financial products used by the business. These empirical results imply that support and advice on financial decision making, available for SMEs, are important for them to better manage and to access finance. Assistance and advice are also very valuable for SMEs and entrepreneurs to compensate for their lack of human capital and thus facilitate overcoming possible problems in managing their businesses.

Is financial literacy an economic good?

Financial literacy (fl) is generally regarded as an economic good which individuals choose whether or not to consume depending on how much of a contribution they expect it to make to the quality of their financial decision-making. This construct has not, however, been tested empirically. In this study we analyse variations in fl on the part of individuals who experience major life-cycle events that show up in the data and that can be assumed to have repercussions on their personal finances. The analysis of a panel made up of approximately 12,000 people indicates that there is a correlation between 13 of the 17 selected life events and financial decisions, but only one of those events (job training) is associated with a change in fl. This evidence casts doubt upon the conceptualization of fl as an economic good and is in line with a series of other studies that, for one reason or another, have questioned the soundness of the current conceptual approach to FL.

Financial literacy and over-indebtedness in low-income households

Financial literacy can explain a significant proportion of wealth inequality. Among the key components of financial literacy are numeracy and money management skills. Our study examines the relative importance of these components in the determination of consumer debt and household net worth among credit union members in socially disadvantaged areas. The main finding from our analysis is that money management skills are important determinants of financial outcomes but that numeracy has almost no role to play. This result adds to a recent US-based behavioural finance literature on the role of attention and planning in consumer finance. Findings are found to be robust when the sample is reduced to only those who have a clear role in household financial decision-making and also when controlling for potential endogeneity. Our findings have policy implications in the UK and elsewhere as credit unions across the world are important players in national financial literacy strategies.

Principal component analysis of the yield curve

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The induced generalized OWA operator

[spa] Se presenta el operador OWA generalizado inducido (IGOWA). Es un nuevo operador de agregación que generaliza al operador OWA a través de utilizar las principales características de dos operadores muy conocidos como son el operador OWA generalizado y el operador OWA inducido. Entonces, este operador utiliza medias generalizadas y variables de ordenación inducidas en el proceso de reordenación. Con esta formulación, se obtiene una amplia gama de operadores de agregación que incluye a todos los casos particulares de los operadores IOWA y GOWA, y otros casos particulares. A continuación, se realiza una generalización mayor al operador IGOWA a través de utilizar medias cuasi-aritméticas. Finalmente, también se desarrolla un ejemplo numérico del nuevo modelo en un problema de toma de decisiones financieras.

The induced generalized OWA operator

[spa] Se presenta el operador OWA generalizado inducido (IGOWA). Es un nuevo operador de agregación que generaliza al operador OWA a través de utilizar las principales características de dos operadores muy conocidos como son el operador OWA generalizado y el operador OWA inducido. Entonces, este operador utiliza medias generalizadas y variables de ordenación inducidas en el proceso de reordenación. Con esta formulación, se obtiene una amplia gama de operadores de agregación que incluye a todos los casos particulares de los operadores IOWA y GOWA, y otros casos particulares. A continuación, se realiza una generalización mayor al operador IGOWA a través de utilizar medias cuasi-aritméticas. Finalmente, también se desarrolla un ejemplo numérico del nuevo modelo en un problema de toma de decisiones financieras.