Stochastic Population Projection for Germany - based on the Quadratic Spline approach to modelling age specific fertility rates

This contribution builds upon a former paper by the authors (Lipps and Betz 2004), in which a stochastic population projection for East- and West Germany is performed. Aim was to forecast relevant population parameters and their distribution in a consistent way. We now present some modifications, which have been modelled since. First, population parameters for the entire German population are modelled. In order to overcome the modelling problem of the structural break in the East during reunification, we show that the adaptation process of the relevant figures by the East can be considered to be completed by now. As a consequence, German parameters can be modelled just by using the West German historic patterns, with the start-off population of entire Germany. Second, a new model to simulate age specific fertility rates is presented, based on a quadratic spline approach. This offers a higher flexibility to model various age specific fertility curves. The simulation results are compared with the scenario based official forecasts for Germany in 2050. Exemplary for some population parameters (e.g. dependency ratio), it can be shown that the range spanned by the medium and extreme variants correspond to the s-intervals in the stochastic framework. It seems therefore more appropriate to treat this range as a s-interval covering about two thirds of the true distribution.

Fertility Rates Following Fixed-Time Artificial Insemination in Dairy Heifers in a Practical Progesterone-Based Protocol

Background: In bovines, more efficient management practices are important for maximizing profitability. In order to increase the pregnancy rates in artificial insemination (AI) programs, several hormonal protocols were developed to synchronize the follicular wave and the moment of ovulation in beef and dairy cattle. In dairy cattle, detection of estrus can be difficult due to a number of factors including the incidence of silent estrus. Hormonal treatments designed to control both luteal and follicular function has permitting efficient synchronizations of time of ovulation. Thus, the AI can be performed in a large number of animals on a fixed schedule without the need for detection of estrus. Using these management techniques, the fixed-time artificial insemination (TAI) can overcome the problem of accurate estrus detection and help in reducing the incidence of repeat breeding. In addition, with TAI in cattle operations, it is possible to facilitate management practices and commercialization, and to reduce the time and semen wasting with animals inseminated at incorrect times. The investigation of practical and efficient TAI protocols is important for reducing the labor and animal handling of TAI in dairy cattle, as well as for increasing the profitability of the cattle management system. This study was carried out in order to investigate the effectiveness of TAI in dairy heifers treated with a practical progesterone-based protocol.Materials, Methods & Results: This experiment was conducted at the university farm located in southwestern Brazil, during May 2009. Thirty-nine cycling crossbred dairy heifers were employed in this study. All animals received a single intramuscular injection of estradiol benzoate and intravaginal progesterone releasing device in a random stage of the estrous cycle (Day 0). on day 7 the animals were treated with PGF2a analogue and on day 9 the device was removed. Forty-eight hours after the device removal (day 11) a synthetic analogue of GnRH was administered and the animals were fixed-time artificially inseminated at the time of GnRH injection. The inseminations were performed using four different batches from the same Holstein bull. Among the heifers that were synchronized (87.2%), 30.8% ovulated until 24 h after TAI and 56.4% ovulated between 24 and 32 h after TAI. The conception rate was 61.5%. No effects of ovulation time in conception rates were detected. The conception rate from heifers that ovulated until 24 h after TAI was 58.3% and from heifers that ovulated between 24 and 32 h after TAI was 77.3%. The mean of ovulatory follicle in heifers that ovulated until 24 h was 14.3 mm and in heifers that ovulated between 24 and 32 h was 11.9 mm.Discussion: Taking together, the findings of the present study, along with those of others, emphasize the concept that development of practical methods for TAI offers significant advantages to dairy producers if conception rates are close or greater to those obtained after breeding at detected estrus. Thus, the results of the present study reinforce the possibility of making dairy cattle production more cost-effective using TAI. In conclusion, with the progesterone-based TAI protocol of the present experiment all synchronized animals ovulated up to 32 h after GnRH+TAI and no effects of ovulation time related to conception rate was detected. The exogenous control of luteal and follicular development facilitated the reproductive management and animal handling. Also, inseminating the heifers at the moment of GnRH injection in a progesterone-based TAI protocol is a practical strategy and provided satisfactory results regarding ovulation and conception rates in dairy heifers.

América Latina: tasas de fecundidad por edad, 1950-2025 = Latin America: fertility rates by age, 1950-2025

Publicación bilingüe (Español e inglés)

A compilation of age-specific fertility rates for developing countries.

"Issued December 1979."

Examining underlying determinants of fertility rates in Zambia: Evidence from the 2007 Zambia Demographic and Health Survey

Limited data exits on factors influencing fertility in Zambia. This study examined underlying determinants of fertility patterns and levels in Zambia. Data extracted from the 2007 Zambia Demographic and Health Survey was analysed using bivariate and multivariate logistic regression. Of 7146 women aged 15-49 years, age group 25-29 years experienced the highest prevalence of births (28.5%). Married women accounted for 27% of all births. Women with low education recorded more births (27%) than those with higher education (9.5%) (P<0.001). Fertility was higher among the poorest (28%) compared to the richest (12%) (P<0.001). Though not statistically significant, urban areas recorded more births (25%) than rural areas (15%). Education and wealth significantly influence fertility Zambia. Fertility management strategies should consider these factors and their fertility reducing effects. Improving education and wealth status of women can contribute to fertility reduction, particularly rural women. Lower fertility, with reduced mortality and migration, would provide less pressure on distribution of the limited economic resources of the country.

Tillering in grain sorghum over a wide range of population densities: Identification of a common hierarchy for tiller emergence, leaf area development and fertility

Most studies of tiller development have not related the physiological and morphological features of each calm to its subsequent fertility. This introduced problems when trying to account for the effects of tillering on yield in crop models. The objective of this study was to detect the most likely early determinants of tiller fertility in sorghum by identifying hierarchies for emergence, fertility and grain number of tillers over a wide range of assimilate availabilities. Emergence, phenology, leaf area development and dry weight partitioning were quantified weekly for individual tillers and main culms of tillering and uniculm plants grown at one of four densities, from two to 16 plants m(-2). For a given plant in any given density, the same tiller hierarchy applied for emergence of tillers, fertility of the emerged tillers and their subsequent grain number. These results were observed over a range of tiller fertility rates (from 7 to 91%), fertile tiller number per plant at maturity (from 0.2 to 4.7), and tiller contribution to grain yield (from 5 to 78%). Tiller emergence was most probably related to assimilate supply and light quality. Development, fertility and contribution to yield of a specific tiller were highly dependent on growing conditions at the time of tiller emergence, particularly via early leaf area development of the tiller, which affected its subsequent leaf area accumulation. Assimilate availability in the main culm at the time of tiller emergence was the most likely early determinant of subsequent tiller fertility in this study. (C) 2002 Annals of Botany Company.

Educational attainment and timing of fertility decisions

This paper focuses on timing of fertility decisions, conditional on the level of educational attainment of parents. Timing of fertility and educational attainment of parents rationalize the negative relationship observed in the data between hourly wages and childbearing. It is shown how the recent evolution in total fertility rates observed in developed countries could be in part the result of a transition from an early childbearing regime to a late childbearing regime. I develop a general equilibrium overlapping generations model in order to understand the joint determination of timing of childbearing decisions together with other household economic decisions in a life cycle framework. I show how idiosyncratic uncertainty might have asymmetric efects on completed fertility depending on timing of childbearing, generating the diferences in completed fertility observed between households that difer in their level of educational attainment.

Educational attainment and timing of fertility decisions

This paper focuses on timing of fertility decisions, conditional on the level of educational attainment of parents. Timing of fertility and educational attainment of parents rationalize the negative relationship observed in the data between hourly wages and childbearing. It is shown how the recent evolution in total fertility rates observed in developed countries could be in part the result of a transition from an early childbearing regime to a late childbearing regime. I develop a general equilibrium overlapping generations model in order to understand the joint determination of timing of childbearing decisions together with other household economic decisions in a life cycle framework. I show how idiosyncratic uncertainty might have asymmetric efects on completed fertility depending on timing of childbearing, generating the diferences in completed fertility observed between households that difer in their level of educational attainment.

Fecundidad = Fertility

Incluye CD-ROM

Less advanced sectors in the Latin American fertility transition

Includes bibliography

Effect of glycerol on the viability and fertility of cooled bovine semen

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Fertility in Curitiba, Brazil: levels, trends and differentials

Objectives: To identify levels, tendency and recent differentials in fertility in Curitiba, Brazil. Methods: It is a quantitative and temporal series study, in which the birth rates, general and total fertility indicators, for the period of 1995-2007, were calculated and analyzed in Curitiba, Brazil, as well as the proportion of women with high fertility in 2005-2007, compared to the state of Parana. In order to evaluate inner regional differences in the city of Curitiba the same rates were calculated for each one of the administrative districts in the capital. Results: It was noticed a tendency of decline in fertility rates in Curitiba. The total fertility rate in 2007 was 1.49 children per woman and 1.66 in Parana state. The proportion of women with high fertility in the interior of Parana was 1.8 times higher than in the capital. The analysis of fertility rates by districts in Curitiba pointed out important differences: only 10 out of 75 districts had total fertility rates higher than 2.1 children per woman, and 9 districts concentrated 59.6% of women with high fertility. Conclusions: Curitiba showed a quick and sharp reduction in fertility rates. However, the inner regional differences in the city suggests the need to devise actions of reproductive health and social measures, directed to specific groups of population.

Age-Specific Fertility Dynamics: Sub-Saharan African Fertility in a Global Context

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08