Failure rates modelling for heterogenous populations

Mixture of distributions, decreasing failure rate, increasing failure rate, proportional hazards model, accelerated life model, asymptotic behavior of mixture failure rate

Clinical evaluation of the failure rates of metallic brackets

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate in vivo the bonding of metallic orthodontic brackets with different adhesive systems. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Twenty patients (10.5-15.1 years old) who had sought corrective orthodontic treatment at a University Orthodontic Clinic were evaluated. Brackets were bonded from the right second premolar to the left second premolar in the upper and lower arches using: Orthodontic Concise, conventional Transbond XT, Transbond XT without primer, and Transbond XT associated with Transbond Plus Self-etching Primer (TPSEP). The 4 adhesive systems were used in all patients using a split-mouth design; each adhesive system was used in one quadrant of each dental arch, so that each group of 5 patients received the same bonding sequence. Initial archwires were inserted 1 week after bracket bonding. The number of bracket failures for each adhesive system was quantified over a 6-month period. RESULTS: The number of debonded brackets was: 8- Orthodontic Concise, 2- conventional Transbond XT, 9- Transbond XT without primer, and 1- Transbond XT + TPSEP. By using the Kaplan-Meier methods, statistically significant differences were found between the materials (p=0.0198), and the Logrank test identified these differences. Conventional Transbond XT and Transbond XT + TPSEP adhesive systems were statistically superior to Orthodontic Concise and Transbond XT without primer (p<0.05). There was no statistically significant difference between the dental arches (upper and lower), between the dental arch sides (right and left), and among the quadrants. CONCLUSIONS: The largest number of bracket failures occurred with Orthodontic Concise and Transbond XT without primer systems and few bracket failures occurred with conventional Transbond XT and Transbond XT+TPSEP. More bracket failures were observed in the posterior region compared with the anterior region.

Complication and failure rates in patients treated for chronic periodontitis and restored with single crowns on teeth and/or implants

Objectives: To assess the biological and technical complication rates of single crowns on vital teeth (SC-V), endodontically treated teeth without post and core (SC-E), with a cast post and core (SC-PC) and on implants (SC-I). Material and methods: From 392 patients with chronic periodontitis treated and documented by graduate students during the period from 1978 to 2002, 199 were reexamined during 2005 for this retrospective cohort study, and 64 of these patients were treated with SCs. Statistical analysis included Kaplan–Meier survival functions and event rates per 100 years of object-time. Poisson regression was used to compare the four groups of crowns with respect to the incidence rate ratio of failures, and failures and complications combined over 10 years and the entire observation period. Results: Forty-one (64%) female and 23 (36%) male patients participated in the reexamination. At the time of seating the crowns, the mean patient age was 46.8 (range 24–66.3) years. One hundred and sixty-eight single unit crowns were incorporated. Their mean follow-up time was 11.8 (range 0.8–26.4) years. During the time of observation, 22 biological and 11 technical complications occurred; 19 SC were lost. The chance for SC-V (56) to remain free of any failure or complication was 89.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 76.1–95.4) after 10 years, 85.8% (95% CI 66–94.5) for SC-E (34), 75.9% for SC-PC (39), (95% CI 58.8–86.7) and 66.2% (95% CI 45.1–80.7) for SC-I (39). Over 10 years, 95% of SC-I remained free of failure and demonstrated a cumulative incidence of failure or complication of 34%. Compared with SC-E, SC-I were 3.5 times more likely to yield failures or complications and SC-PC failed 1.7 times more frequently than did SC-E. SC-V had the lowest rate of failures or complications over the 10 years. Conclusions: While SCs on vital teeth have the best prognosis, those on endodontically treated teeth have a slightly poorer prognosis over 10 years. Crowns on teeth with post and cores and implant-supported SCs displayed the highest incidence of failures and complications.

Complication and failure rates of fixed dental prostheses in patients treated for periodontal disease

Objectives: To evaluate the biological and technical complication rates of fixed dental prostheses (FDP) with end abutments or cantilever extensions on teeth (FDP-tt/cFDP-tt) on implants (FDP-ii/cFDP-ii) and tooth-implant-supported (FDP-ti/cFDP-ti) in patients treated for chronic periodontitis. Material and methods: From a cohort of 392 patients treated between 1978 and 2002 by graduate students, 199 were re-examined in 2005. Of these, 84 patients had received ceramo-metal FDPs (six groups). Results: At the re-evaluation, the mean age of the patients was 62 years (36.2–83.4). One hundred and seventy-five FDPs were seated (82 FDP-tt, 9 FDP-ii, 20 FDP-ti, 39 cFDP-tt, 15 cFDP-ii, 10 cFDP-ti). The mean observation time was 11.3 years; 21 FDPs were lost, and 46 technical and 50 biological complications occurred. Chances for the survival of the three groups of FDPs with end abutments were very high (risk for failure 2.8%, 0%, 5.6%). The probability to remain without complications and/or failure was 70.3%, 88.9% and 74.7% in FDPs with end abutments, but 49.8–25% only in FDPs with extensions at 10 years. Conclusions: In patients treated for chronic periodontitis and provided with ceramo-metal FDPs, high survival rates, especially for FDPs with end abutments, can be expected. The incidence rates of any negative events were increased drastically in the three groups with extension cFDPs (tt, ii, ti). Strategic decisions in the choice of a particular FDP design and the choice of teeth/implants as abutments appear to influence the risks for complications to be expected with fixed reconstruction. If possible, extensions on tooth abutments should be avoided or used only after a cautious clinical evaluation of all options.

New Results Concerning Probability Distributions with Increasing Generalized Failure Rates

The generalized failure rate of a continuous random variable has demonstrable importance in operations management. If the valuation distribution of a product has an increasing generalized failure rate (that is, the distribution is IGFR), then the associated revenue function is unimodal, and when the generalized failure rate is strictly increasing, the global maximum is uniquely specified. The assumption that the distribution is IGFR is thus useful and frequently held in recent pricing, revenue, and supply chain management literature. This note contributes to the IGFR literature in several ways. First, it investigates the prevalence of the IGFR property for the left and right truncations of valuation distributions. Second, we extend the IGFR notion to discrete distributions and contrast it with the continuous distribution case. The note also addresses two errors in the previous IGFR literature. Finally, for future reference, we analyze all common (continuous and discrete) distributions for the prevalence of the IGFR property, and derive and tabulate their generalized failure rates.

Complication and failure rates of tooth-supported fixed dental prostheses after 7 to 19 years in function

The aims of this study were to reexamine patients who had received fixed dental prostheses (FDPs) more than 10 years prior, list the frequencies of observed technical and biologic failures and complications, and calculate the estimated failure and complication rates at 10 and 15 years.

Survival and failure rates of orthodontic temporary anchorage devices: a systematic review

AIM: The purpose of this study was to systematically review the literature on the survival rates of palatal implants, Onplants((R)), miniplates and mini screws. MATERIAL AND METHODS: An electronic MEDLINE search supplemented by manual searching was conducted to identify randomized clinical trials, prospective and retrospective cohort studies on palatal implants, Onplants((R)), miniplates and miniscrews with a mean follow-up time of at least 12 weeks and of at least 10 units per modality having been examined clinically at a follow-up visit. Assessment of studies and data abstraction was performed independently by two reviewers. Reported failures of used devices were analyzed using random-effects Poisson regression models to obtain summary estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of failure and survival proportions. RESULTS: The search up to January 2009 provided 390 titles and 71 abstracts with full-text analysis of 34 articles, yielding 27 studies that met the inclusion criteria. In meta-analysis, the failure rate for Onplants((R)) was 17.2% (95% CI: 5.9-35.8%), 10.5% for palatal implants (95% CI: 6.1-18.1%), 16.4% for miniscrews (95% CI: 13.4-20.1%) and 7.3% for miniplates (95% CI: 5.4-9.9%). Miniplates and palatal implants, representing torque-resisting temporary anchorage devices (TADs), when grouped together, showed a 1.92-fold (95% CI: 1.06-2.78) lower clinical failure rate than miniscrews. CONCLUSION: Based on the available evidence in the literature, palatal implants and miniplates showed comparable survival rates of >or=90% over a period of at least 12 weeks, and yielded superior survival than miniscrews. Palatal implants and miniplates for temporary anchorage provide reliable absolute orthodontic anchorage. If the intended orthodontic treatment would require multiple miniscrew placement to provide adequate anchorage, the reliability of such systems is questionable. For patients who are undergoing extensive orthodontic treatment, force vectors may need to be varied or the roots of the teeth to be moved may need to slide past the anchors. In this context, palatal implants or miniplates should be the TADs of choice.

Complication and failure rates with implant-supported fixed dental prostheses and single crowns: a 10-year retrospective study

PURPOSE Clinical studies related to the long-term outcomes with implant-supported reconstructions are still sparse. The aim of this 10-year retrospective study was to assess the rate of mechanical/technical complications and failures with implant supported fixed dental prostheses (FDPs) and single crowns (SCs) in a large cohort of partially edentulous patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS The comprehensive multidisciplinary examination consisted of a medical/dental history, clinical examination, and a radiographic analysis. Prosthodontic examination evaluated the implant-supported reconstructions for mechanical/technical complications and failures, occlusal analysis, presence/absence of attrition, and location, extension, and retention type. RESULTS Out of three hundred ninety seven fixed reconstructions in three hundred three patients, two hundred sixty eight were SCs and one hundred twenty seven were FDPs. Of these three hundred ninety seven implant-supported reconstructions, 18 had failed, yielding a failure rate of 4.5% and a survival rate of 95.5% after a mean observation period of 10.75 years (range: 8.4-13.5 years). The most frequent complication was ceramic chipping (20.31%) followed by occlusal screw loosening (2.57%) and loss of retention (2.06%). No occlusal screw fracture, one abutment loosening, and two abutment fractures were noted. This resulted in a total mechanical/technical complication rate of 24.7%. The prosthetic success rate over a mean follow-up time of 10.75 years was 70.8%. Generalized attrition and FDPs were associated with statistically significantly higher rates of ceramic fractures when compared with SCs. Cantilever extensions, screw retention, anterior versus posterior, and gender did not influence the chipping rate. CONCLUSIONS After a mean exposure time of 10.75 years, high survival rates for reconstructions supported by Sand-blasted Large-grit Acid-etched implants can be expected. Ceramic chipping was the most frequent complication and was increased in dentitions with attrition and in FDPs compared with SCs.

Reliability and Failure Modes of Implant-Supported Y-TZP and MCR Three-Unit Bridges

Purpose: Chipping within veneering porcelain has resulted in high clinical failure rates for implant-supported zirconia (yttria-tetragonal zirconia polycrystals [Y-TZP]) bridges. This study evaluated the reliability and failure modes of mouth-motion step-stress fatigued implant-supported Y-TZP versus palladium-silver alloy (PdAg) three-unit bridges. Materials and Methods: Implant-abutment replicas were embedded in polymethylmethacrylate resin. Y-TZP and PdAg frameworks, of similar design (n = 21 each), were fabricated, veneered, cemented (n = 3 each), and Hertzian contact-tested to obtain ultimate failure load. In each framework group, 18 specimens were distributed across three step-stress profiles and mouth-motion cyclically loaded according to the profile on the lingual slope of the buccal cusp of the pontic. Results: PdAg failures included competing flexural cracking at abutment and/or connector area and chipping, whereas Y-TZP presented predominantly cohesive failure within veneering porcelain. Including all failure modes, the reliability (two-sided at 90% confidence intervals) for a ""mission"" of 50,000 and 100,000 cycles at 300 N load was determined (Alta Pro, Reliasoft, Tucson, AZ, USA). No difference in reliability was observed between groups for a mission of 50,000. Reliability remained unchanged for a mission of 100,000 for PdAg, but significantly decreased for Y-TZP. Conclusions: Higher reliability was found for PdAg for a mission of 100,000 cycles at 300 N. Failure modes differed between materials.

Clinical evaluation of the failure rate of metallic brackets bonded with orthodontic composites

The purpose of the present study was to evaluate in vivo the failure rate of metallic brackets bonded with two orthodontic composites. Nineteen patients with ages ranging from 10.5 to 38.7 years needing corrective orthodontic treatment were selected for study. The enamel surfaces from second premolars to second premolars were treated with Transbond Plus-Self Etching Primer (3M Unitek). Next, 380 orthodontic brackets were bonded on maxillary and mandibular teeth, as follows: 190 with Transbond XT composite (3M Unitek) (control) and 190 with Transbond Plus Color Change (3M Unitek) (experimental) in contralateral quadrants. The bonded brackets were light cured for 40 s, and initial alignment archwires were inserted. Bond failure rates were recorded over a six-month period. At the end of the evaluation, six bond failures occurred, three for each composite. Kaplan-Meyer method and log-rank test (Mantel-Cox) was used for statistical analysis, and no statistically significant difference was found between the materials (p=0.999). Both Transbond XT and Transbond Plus Color Change composites had low debonding rates over the study period.

Clinical evaluation of the failure rate of metallic brackets bonded with orthodontic composites

The purpose of the present study was to evaluate in vivo the failure rate of metallic brackets bonded with two orthodontic composites. Nineteen patients with ages ranging from 10.5 to 38.7 years needing corrective orthodontic treatment were selected for study. The enamel surfaces from second premolars to second premolars were treated with Transbond Plus-Self Etching Primer (3M Unitek). Next, 380 orthodontic brackets were bonded on maxillary and mandibular teeth, as follows: 190 with Transbond XT composite (3M Unitek) (control) and 190 with Transbond Plus Color Change (3M Unitek) (experimental) in contralateral quadrants. The bonded brackets were light cured for 40 s, and initial alignment archwires were inserted. Bond failure rates were recorded over a six-month period. At the end of the evaluation, six bond failures occurred, three for each composite. Kaplan-Meyer method and log-rank test (Mantel-Cox) was used for statistical analysis, and no statistically significant difference was found between the materials (p=0.999). Both Transbond XT and Transbond Plus Color Change composites had low debonding rates over the study period.

Treatment failure and mortality factors in patients receiving second-line HIV therapy in resource-limited countries

Context Long-term antiretroviral therapy (ART) use in resource-limited countries leads to increasing numbers of patients with HIV taking second-line therapy. Limited access to further therapeutic options makes essential the evaluation of second-line regimen efficacy in these settings. Objectives To investigate failure rates in patients receiving second-line therapy and factors associated with failure and death. Design, Setting, and Participants Multicohort study of 632 patients >14 years old receiving second-line therapy for more than 6 months in 27 ART programs in Africa and Asia between January 2001 and October 2008. Main Outcome Measures Clinical, immunological, virological, and immunovirological failure (first diagnosed episode of immunological or virological failure) rates, and mortality after 6 months of second-line therapy use. Sensitivity analyses were performed using alternative CD4 cell count thresholds for immunological and immunovirological definitions of failure and for cohort attrition instead of death. Results The 632 patients provided 740.7 person-years of follow-up; 119 (18.8%) met World Health Organization failure criteria after a median 11.9 months following the start of second-line therapy (interquartile range [IQR], 8.7-17.0 months), and 34 (5.4%) died after a median 15.1 months (IQR, 11.9-25.7 months). Failure rates were lower in those who changed 2 nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) instead of 1 (179.2 vs 251.6 per 1000 person-years; incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.64; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.42-0.96), and higher in those with lowest adherence index (383.5 vs 176.0 per 1000 person-years; IRR, 3.14; 95% CI, 1.67-5.90 for <80% vs ≥95% [percentage adherent, as represented by percentage of appointments attended with no delay]). Failure rates increased with lower CD4 cell counts when second-line therapy was started, from 156.3 vs 96.2 per 1000 person-years; IRR, 1.59 (95% CI, 0.78-3.25) for 100 to 199/μL to 336.8 per 1000 person-years; IRR, 3.32 (95% CI, 1.81-6.08) for less than 50/μL vs 200/μL or higher; and decreased with time using second-line therapy, from 250.0 vs 123.2 per 1000 person-years; IRR, 1.90 (95% CI, 1.19-3.02) for 6 to 11 months to 212.0 per 1000 person-years; 1.71 (95% CI, 1.01-2.88) for 12 to 17 months vs 18 or more months. Mortality for those taking second-line therapy was lower in women (32.4 vs 68.3 per 1000 person-years; hazard ratio [HR], 0.45; 95% CI, 0.23-0.91); and higher in patients with treatment failure of any type (91.9 vs 28.1 per 1000 person-years; HR, 2.83; 95% CI, 1.38-5.80). Sensitivity analyses showed similar results. Conclusions Among patients in Africa and Asia receiving second-line therapy for HIV, treatment failure was associated with low CD4 cell counts at second-line therapy start, use of suboptimal second-line regimens, and poor adherence. Mortality was associated with diagnosed treatment failure.

Dynamic fault tree analysis with PEWMA modeling of event rates and Bayesian updating of material balance parameters using MCMC

This research explores Bayesian updating as a tool for estimating parameters probabilistically by dynamic analysis of data sequences. Two distinct Bayesian updating methodologies are assessed. The first approach focuses on Bayesian updating of failure rates for primary events in fault trees. A Poisson Exponentially Moving Average (PEWMA) model is implemnented to carry out Bayesian updating of failure rates for individual primary events in the fault tree. To provide a basis for testing of the PEWMA model, a fault tree is developed based on the Texas City Refinery incident which occurred in 2005. A qualitative fault tree analysis is then carried out to obtain a logical expression for the top event. A dynamic Fault Tree analysis is carried out by evaluating the top event probability at each Bayesian updating step by Monte Carlo sampling from posterior failure rate distributions. It is demonstrated that PEWMA modeling is advantageous over conventional conjugate Poisson-Gamma updating techniques when failure data is collected over long time spans. The second approach focuses on Bayesian updating of parameters in non-linear forward models. Specifically, the technique is applied to the hydrocarbon material balance equation. In order to test the accuracy of the implemented Bayesian updating models, a synthetic data set is developed using the Eclipse reservoir simulator. Both structured grid and MCMC sampling based solution techniques are implemented and are shown to model the synthetic data set with good accuracy. Furthermore, a graphical analysis shows that the implemented MCMC model displays good convergence properties. A case study demonstrates that Likelihood variance affects the rate at which the posterior assimilates information from the measured data sequence. Error in the measured data significantly affects the accuracy of the posterior parameter distributions. Increasing the likelihood variance mitigates random measurement errors, but casuses the overall variance of the posterior to increase. Bayesian updating is shown to be advantageous over deterministic regression techniques as it allows for incorporation of prior belief and full modeling uncertainty over the parameter ranges. As such, the Bayesian approach to estimation of parameters in the material balance equation shows utility for incorporation into reservoir engineering workflows.