Physiological tolerance times while wearing explosive ordnance disposal protective clothing in simulated environmental extremes

Explosive ordnance disposal (EOD) technicians are required to wear protective clothing to protect themselves from the threat of overpressure, fragmentation, impact and heat. The engineering requirements to minimise these threats results in an extremely heavy and cumbersome clothing ensemble that increases the internal heat generation of the wearer, while the clothing’s thermal properties reduce heat dissipation. This study aimed to evaluate the heat strain encountered wearing EOD protective clothing in simulated environmental extremes across a range of differing work intensities. Eight healthy males [age 25±6 years (mean ± sd), height 180±7 cm, body mass 79±9 kg, V˙O2max 57±6 ml.kg−1.min−1] undertook nine trials while wearing an EOD9 suit (weighing 33.4 kg). The trials involved walking on a treadmill at 2.5, 4 and 5.5 km⋅h−1 at each of the following environmental conditions, 21, 30 and 37°C wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) in a randomised controlled crossover design. The trials were ceased if the participants’ core temperature reached 39°C, if heart rate exceeded 90% of maximum, if walking time reached 60 minutes or due to fatigue/nausea. Tolerance times ranged from 10–60 minutes and were significantly reduced in the higher walking speeds and environmental conditions. In a total of 15 trials (21%) participants completed 60 minutes of walking; however, this was predominantly at the slower walking speeds in the 21°C WBGT environment. Of the remaining 57 trials, 50 were ceased, due to attainment of 90% maximal heart rate. These near maximal heart rates resulted in moderate-high levels of physiological strain in all trials, despite core temperature only reaching 39°C in one of the 72 trials.

Predicting the extremes of Indian summer monsoon rainfall with coupled ocean-atmosphere models

An analysis of the retrospective predictions by seven coupled ocean atmosphere models from major forecasting centres of Europe and USA, aimed at assessing their ability in predicting the interannual variation of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), particularly the extremes (i.e. droughts and excess rainfall seasons) is presented in this article. On the whole, the skill in prediction of extremes is not bad since most of the models are able to predict the sign of the ISMR anomaly for a majority of the extremes. There is a remarkable coherence between the models in successes and failures of the predictions, with all the models generating loud false alarms for the normal monsoon season of 1997 and the excess monsoon season of 1983. It is well known that the El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) play an important role in the interannual variation of ISMR and particularly the extremes. The prediction of the phases of these modes and their link with the monsoon has also been assessed. It is found that models are able to simulate ENSO-monsoon link realistically, whereas the EQUINOO-ISMR link is simulated realistically by only one model the ECMWF model. Furthermore, it is found that in most models this link is opposite to the observed, with the predicted ISMR being negatively (instead of positively) correlated with the rainfall over the western equatorial Indian Ocean and positively (instead of negatively) correlated with the rainfall over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Analysis of the seasons for which the predictions of almost all the models have large errors has suggested the facets of ENSO and EQUINOO and the links with the monsoon that need to be improved for improving monsoon predictions by these models.

Dense, efficient chip-to-chip communication at the extremes of computing

The scalability of CMOS technology has driven computation into a diverse range of applications across the power consumption, performance and size spectra. Communication is a necessary adjunct to computation, and whether this is to push data from node-to-node in a high-performance computing cluster or from the receiver of wireless link to a neural stimulator in a biomedical implant, interconnect can take up a significant portion of the overall system power budget. Although a single interconnect methodology cannot address such a broad range of systems efficiently, there are a number of key design concepts that enable good interconnect design in the age of highly-scaled CMOS: an emphasis on highly-digital approaches to solving ‘analog’ problems, hardware sharing between links as well as between different functions (such as equalization and synchronization) in the same link, and adaptive hardware that changes its operating parameters to mitigate not only variation in the fabrication of the link, but also link conditions that change over time. These concepts are demonstrated through the use of two design examples, at the extremes of the power and performance spectra.

A novel all-digital clock and data recovery technique for high-performance, high density interconnect has been developed. Two independently adjustable clock phases are generated from a delay line calibrated to 2 UI. One clock phase is placed in the middle of the eye to recover the data, while the other is swept across the delay line. The samples produced by the two clocks are compared to generate eye information, which is used to determine the best phase for data recovery. The functions of the two clocks are swapped after the data phase is updated; this ping-pong action allows an infinite delay range without the use of a PLL or DLL. The scheme's generalized sampling and retiming architecture is used in a sharing technique that saves power and area in high-density interconnect. The eye information generated is also useful for tuning an adaptive equalizer, circumventing the need for dedicated adaptation hardware.

On the other side of the performance/power spectra, a capacitive proximity interconnect has been developed to support 3D integration of biomedical implants. In order to integrate more functionality while staying within size limits, implant electronics can be embedded onto a foldable parylene (‘origami’) substrate. Many of the ICs in an origami implant will be placed face-to-face with each other, so wireless proximity interconnect can be used to increase communication density while decreasing implant size, as well as facilitate a modular approach to implant design, where pre-fabricated parylene-and-IC modules are assembled together on-demand to make custom implants. Such an interconnect needs to be able to sense and adapt to changes in alignment. The proposed array uses a TDC-like structure to realize both communication and alignment sensing within the same set of plates, increasing communication density and eliminating the need to infer link quality from a separate alignment block. In order to distinguish the communication plates from the nearby ground plane, a stimulus is applied to the transmitter plate, which is rectified at the receiver to bias a delay generation block. This delay is in turn converted into a digital word using a TDC, providing alignment information.

Probability-Matching Predictors for Extreme Extremes

A location- and scale-invariant predictor is constructed which exhibits good probability matching for extreme predictions outside the span of data drawn from a variety of (stationary) general distributions. It is constructed via the three-parameter {\mu, \sigma, \xi} Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The predictor is designed to provide matching probability exactly for the GPD in both the extreme heavy-tailed limit and the extreme bounded-tail limit, whilst giving a good approximation to probability matching at all intermediate values of the tail parameter \xi. The predictor is valid even for small sample sizes N, even as small as N = 3. The main purpose of this paper is to present the somewhat lengthy derivations which draw heavily on the theory of hypergeometric functions, particularly the Lauricella functions. Whilst the construction is inspired by the Bayesian approach to the prediction problem, it considers the case of vague prior information about both parameters and model, and all derivations are undertaken using sampling theory.

Rodent models for resolving extremes of exercise and health

The extremes of exercise capacity and health are considered a complex interplay between genes and the environment. In general, the study of animal models has proven critical for deep mechanistic exploration that provides guidance for focused and hypothesis driven discovery in humans. Hypotheses underlying molecular mechanisms of disease, and gene/tissue function can be tested in rodents in order to generate sufficient evidence to resolve and progress our understanding of human biology. Here we provide examples of three alternative uses of rodent models that have been applied successfully to advance knowledge that bridges our understanding of the connection between exercise capacity and health status. Firstly we review the strong association between exercise capacity and all-cause morbidity and mortality in humans through artificial selection on low and high exercise performance in the rat and the consequent generation of the "energy transfer hypothesis". Secondly we review specific transgenic and knock-out mouse models that replicate the human disease condition and performance. This includes human glycogen storage diseases (McArdle and Pompe) and α-actinin-3 deficiency. Together these rodent models provide an overview of the advancements of molecular knowledge required for clinical translation. Continued study of these models in conjunction with human association studies will be critical to resolving the complex gene-environment interplay linking exercise capacity, health, and disease.

CMIP5 climate model analyses: Climate extremes in the United States

Given the increases in spatial resolution and other improvements in climate modeling capabilities over the last decade since the CMIP3 simulations were completed, CMIP5 provides a unique opportunity to assess scientific understanding of climate variability and change over a range of historical and future conditions. With participation from over 20 modeling groups and more than 40 global models, CMIP5 represents the latest and most ambitious coordinated international climate model intercomparison exercise to date. Observations dating back to 1900 show that the temperatures in the twenty-first century have the largest spatial extent of record breaking and much above normal mean monthly maximum and minimum temperatures. The 20-yr return value of the annual maximum or minimum daily temperature is one measure of changes in rare temperature extremes.

Local likelihood smoothing of sample extremes

Trends in sample extremes are of interest in many contexts, an example being environmental statistics. Parametric models are often used to model trends in such data, but they may not be suitable for exploratory data analysis. This paper outlines a semiparametric approach to smoothing example extremes, based on local polynomial fitting of the generalized extreme value distribution and related models. The uncertainty of fits is assessed by using resampling methods. The methods are applied to data on extreme temperatures and on record times for the womens 3000m race.

Local models for exploratory analysis of hydrological extremes

Trend analysis is widely used for detecting changes in hydrological data. Parametric methods for this employ pre-specified models and associated tests to assess significance, whereas non-parametric methods generally apply rank tests to the data. Neither approach is suitable for exploratory analysis, because parametric models impose a particular, perhaps unsuitable, form of trend, while testing may confirm that trend is present but does not describe its form. This paper describes semi-parametric approaches to trend analysis using local likelihood fitting of annual maximum and partial duration series and illustrates their application to the exploratory analysis of changes in extremes in sea level and river flow data. Bootstrap methods are used to quantify the variability of estimates.