Prospective external validation of an accelerated (2-h) acute coronary syndrome rule-out process using a contemporary troponin assay

Background: Recently there have been efforts to derive safe, efficient processes to rule out acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in emergency department (ED) chest pain patients. We aimed to prospectively validate an ACS assessment pathway (the 2-Hour Accelerated Diagnostic Protocol to Assess Patients with Chest Pain Symptoms Using Contemporary Troponins as the Only Biomarker (ADAPT) pathway) under pragmatic ED working conditions. Methods: This prospective cohort study included patients with atraumatic chest pain in whom ACS was suspected but who did not have clear evidence of ischaemia on ECG. Thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) score and troponin (TnI Ultra) were measured at ED presentation, 2 h later and according to current national recommendations. The primary outcome of interest was the occurrence of major adverse cardiac events (MACE) including prevalent myocardial infarction (MI) at 30 days in the group who had a TIMI score of 0 and had presentation and 2-h TnI assays <99th percentile. Results: Eight hundred and forty patients were studied of whom 177 (21%) had a TIMI score of 0. There were no MI, MACE or revascularization in the per protocol and intention-to-treat 2-h troponin groups (0%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0% to 4.5% and 0%, 95% CI 0% to 3.8%, respectively). The negative predictive value (NPV) was 100% (95% CI 95.5% to 100%) and 100% (95% CI 96.2% to 100%), respectively. Conclusions: A 2-h accelerated rule-out process for ED chest pain patients using electrocardiography, a TIMI score of 0 and a contemporary sensitive troponin assay accurately identifies a group at very low risk of 30-day MI or MACE.

The new Vancouver Chest Pain Rule using troponin as the only biomarker: An external validation study

Objectives To externally evaluate the accuracy of the new Vancouver Chest Pain Rule and to assess the diagnostic accuracy using either sensitive or highly sensitive troponin assays. Methods Prospectively collected data from 2 emergency departments (EDs) in Australia and New Zealand were analysed. Based on the new Vancouver Chest Pain Rule, low-risk patients were identified using electrocardiogram results, cardiac history, nitrate use, age, pain characteristics and troponin results at 2 hours after presentation. The primary outcome was 30-day diagnosis of acute coronary syndrome (ACS), including acute myocardial infarction, and unstable angina. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values and negative predictive values were calculated to assess the accuracy of the new Vancouver Chest Pain Rule using either sensitive or highly sensitive troponin assay results. Results Of the 1635 patients, 20.4% had an ACS diagnosis at 30 days. Using the highly sensitive troponin assay, 212 (13.0%) patients were eligible for early discharge with 3 patients (1.4%) diagnosed with ACS. Sensitivity was 99.1% (95% CI 97.4-99.7), specificity was 16.1 (95% CI 14.2-18.2), positive predictive values was 23.3 (95% CI 21.1-25.5) and negative predictive values was 98.6 (95% CI 95.9-99.5). The diagnostic accuracy of the rule was similar using the sensitive troponin assay. Conclusions The new Vancouver Chest Pain Rule should be used for the identification of low risk patients presenting to EDs with symptoms of possible ACS, and will reduce the proportion of patients requiring lengthy assessment; however we recommend further outpatient investigation for coronary artery disease in patients identified as low risk.

External validation of the OHTS-EGPS model for predicting the 5-year risk of open-angle glaucoma in ocular hypertensives

To independently evaluate and compare the performance of the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study-European Glaucoma Prevention Study (OHTS-EGPS) prediction equation for estimating the 5-year risk of open-angle glaucoma (OAG) in four cohorts of adults with ocular hypertension.

External validation of the 2008 Framingham cardiovascular risk equation for CHD and stroke events in a European population of middle-aged men. The PRIME study

To test the applicability of the sex-specific 2008 Framingham general cardiovascular risk equation for coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke in European middle-aged men from Ireland and France.

Clinical endpoint adjudication in a contemporary all-comers coronary stent investigation: methodology and external validation

Globalisation in coronary stent research calls for harmonization of clinical endpoint definitions and event adjudication. Little has been published about the various processes used for event adjudication or their impact on outcome reporting.

External validation of the Hospital-patient One-year Mortality Risk (HOMR) model for predicting death within 1 year after hospital admission

BACKGROUND Predicting long-term survival after admission to hospital is helpful for clinical, administrative and research purposes. The Hospital-patient One-year Mortality Risk (HOMR) model was derived and internally validated to predict the risk of death within 1 year after admission. We conducted an external validation of the model in a large multicentre study. METHODS We used administrative data for all nonpsychiatric admissions of adult patients to hospitals in the provinces of Ontario (2003-2010) and Alberta (2011-2012), and to the Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston (2010-2012) to calculate each patient's HOMR score at admission. The HOMR score is based on a set of parameters that captures patient demographics, health burden and severity of acute illness. We determined patient status (alive or dead) 1 year after admission using population-based registries. RESULTS The 3 validation cohorts (n = 2,862,996 in Ontario, 210 595 in Alberta and 66,683 in Boston) were distinct from each other and from the derivation cohort. The overall risk of death within 1 year after admission was 8.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 8.7% to 8.8%). The HOMR score was strongly and significantly associated with risk of death in all populations and was highly discriminative, with a C statistic ranging from 0.89 (95% CI 0.87 to 0.91) to 0.92 (95% CI 0.91 to 0.92). Observed and expected outcome risks were similar (median absolute difference in percent dying in 1 yr 0.3%, interquartile range 0.05%-2.5%). INTERPRETATION The HOMR score, calculated using routinely collected administrative data, accurately predicted the risk of death among adult patients within 1 year after admission to hospital for nonpsychiatric indications. Similar performance was seen when the score was used in geographically and temporally diverse populations. The HOMR model can be used for risk adjustment in analyses of health administrative data to predict long-term survival among hospital patients.

External validation study of a clinical prediction rule for ambulation outcomes after traumatic spinal cord injury

The main objective of this study was to determine the external validity of a clinical prediction rule developed by the European Multicenter Study on Human Spinal Cord Injury (EM-SCI) to predict the ambulation outcomes 12 months after traumatic spinal cord injury. Data from the North American Clinical Trials Network (NACTN) data registry with approximately 500 SCI cases were used for this validity study. The predictive accuracy of the EM-SCI prognostic model was evaluated using calibration and discrimination based on 231 NACTN cases. The area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve (ROC) curve was 0.927 (95% CI 0.894 – 0.959) for the EM-SCI model when applied to NACTN population. This is lower than the AUC of 0.956 (95% CI 0.936 – 0.976) reported for the EM-SCI population, but suggests that the EM-SCI clinical prediction rule distinguished well between those patients in the NACTN population who were able to achieve independent ambulation and those who did not achieve independent ambulation. The calibration curve suggests that higher the prediction score is, the better the probability of walking with the best prediction for AIS D patients. In conclusion, the EM-SCI clinical prediction rule was determined to be generalizable to the adult NACTN SCI population.^

External Validation of the ProACS Score for Risk Stratification of Patients with Acute Coronary Syndromes

INTRODUCTION: The ProACS risk score is an early and simple risk stratification score developed for all-cause in-hospital mortality in acute coronary syndromes (ACS) from a Portuguese nationwide ACS registry. Our center only recently participated in the registry and was not included in the cohort used for developing the score. Our objective was to perform an external validation of this risk score for short- and long-term follow-up. METHODS: Consecutive patients admitted to our center with ACS were included. Demographic and admission characteristics, as well as treatment and outcome data were collected. The ProACS risk score variables are age (≥72 years), systolic blood pressure (≤116 mmHg), Killip class (2/3 or 4) and ST-segment elevation. We calculated ProACS, Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) and Canada Acute Coronary Syndrome risk score (C-ACS) risk scores for each patient. RESULTS: A total of 3170 patients were included, with a mean age of 64±13 years, 62% with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. All-cause in-hospital mortality was 5.7% and 10.3% at one-year follow-up. The ProACS risk score showed good discriminative ability for all considered outcomes (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve >0.75) and a good fit, similar to C-ACS, but lower than the GRACE risk score and slightly lower than in the original development cohort. The ProACS risk score provided good differentiation between patients at low, intermediate and high mortality risk in both short- and long-term follow-up (p<0.001 for all comparisons). CONCLUSIONS: The ProACS score is valid in external cohorts for risk stratification for ACS. It can be applied very early, at the first medical contact, but should subsequently be complemented by the GRACE risk score.

Validation of FHWA crash models for rural intersections - Lessons learned

A national-level safety analysis tool is needed to complement existing analytical tools for assessment of the safety impacts of roadway design alternatives. FHWA has sponsored the development of the Interactive Highway Safety Design Model (IHSDM), which is roadway design and redesign software that estimates the safety effects of alternative designs. Considering the importance of IHSDM in shaping the future of safety-related transportation investment decisions, FHWA justifiably sponsored research with the sole intent of independently validating some of the statistical models and algorithms in IHSDM. Statistical model validation aims to accomplish many important tasks, including (a) assessment of the logical defensibility of proposed models, (b) assessment of the transferability of models over future time periods and across different geographic locations, and (c) identification of areas in which future model improvements should be made. These three activities are reported for five proposed types of rural intersection crash prediction models. The internal validation of the model revealed that the crash models potentially suffer from omitted variables that affect safety, site selection and countermeasure selection bias, poorly measured and surrogate variables, and misspecification of model functional forms. The external validation indicated the inability of models to perform on par with model estimation performance. Recommendations for improving the state of the practice from this research include the systematic conduct of carefully designed before-and-after studies, improvements in data standardization and collection practices, and the development of analytical methods to combine the results of before-and-after studies with cross-sectional studies in a meaningful and useful way.

Validation of the MEASURE automobile emissions model : a statistical analysis

The Mobile Emissions Assessment System for Urban and Regional Evaluation (MEASURE) model provides an external validation capability for hot stabilized option; the model is one of several new modal emissions models designed to predict hot stabilized emission rates for various motor vehicle groups as a function of the conditions under which the vehicles are operating. The validation of aggregate measurements, such as speed and acceleration profile, is performed on an independent data set using three statistical criteria. The MEASURE algorithms have proved to provide significant improvements in both average emission estimates and explanatory power over some earlier models for pollutants across almost every operating cycle tested.

Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees : the PredictAL study

Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

Evaluating the external validity of comorbid disorders in youth using rating scales and behavior observations

To evaluate the theoretical underpinnings of current categorical approaches to classify childhood psychopathological conditions, this dissertation examined whether children with a single diagnosis of an anxiety disorder (ANX only) and children with an anxiety diagnosis comorbid with other diagnoses (i.e., anxiety + anxiety disorder [ANX + ANX], anxiety + depressive disorder [ANX + DEP], and anxiety + disruptive disorder [ANX + EXT]) could be differentiated using external validation criteria of clinical phenomenology (i.e., levels of anxiety, depression, and internalizing, externalizing and total behavior problems). This study further examined whether the four groups could be differentiated in terms of their interaction patterns with their parents and peers, respectively. The sample consisted of 129 youth and their parents who presented to the Child Anxiety and Phobia Program (CAPP) housed within the Child and Family Psychosocial Research Center at Florida International University, Miami. Youth were between the ages of 8 and 14 years old. A battery of questionnaires was used to assess participants' clinical presentation in terms of levels of anxiety, depression, and internalizing and externalizing symptoms. Family and peer interaction were evaluated through rating scales and through behavior observation tasks. Statistics based on the parameter estimates of the structured equation models indicated that all the comorbid groups were significantly different from the pure anxiety disorder group when it came to depression indices of clinical phenomenology. Further, significant differences appeared mainly in terms of the ANX + DEP comorbid group relative to the other comorbid groups. In terms of Parent-child interaction the ANX + EXT and the ANX + DEP comorbid groups were differentiated from the pure anxiety disorder and ANX + ANX comorbid group when it came to the appraisal of the parent/child relationship by the parent, and the acceptance subscale according to the mother report. In terms of peer-child interaction the ANX + EXT and the ANX + DEP comorbid groups were statistically significantly different from the pure anxiety disorder only when it came to the positive interactions and the social skills as rated by mother. Limitations and future research recommendations are discussed.

Service quality in the Malaysian fast food industry : an examination using DINESERV

This study addresses calls in the literature for the external validation of Western-based marketing concepts and theory in the East. Using DINESERV, the relationships between service quality, overall service quality perceptions, customer satisfaction, and repurchase intentions in the Malaysian fast food industry are examined. A questionnaire was administered to Malaysian fast food consumers at a large university, resulting in findings that support the five-dimensional nature of DINESERV and three of four proposed hypotheses. This study contributes to knowledge of service quality in developing countries and is the first to examine DINESERV in the Malaysian fast food industry.

The social work & human services workforce : report from a national study of education, training and workforce needs

This report analyses the national curriculum and workforce needs of the social work and human services workforce. Australia’s community and health services are among the fastest growing sectors of employment in the nation but the sustainability of an appropriately qualified workforce is threatened. Yet there is little integration of education and workforce planning for the community services sector. This contrasts markedly with the health services sector, where key stakeholders are collaboratively addressing workforce challenges. Our research confirmed rapid growth in the social work and human services workforce and it also identified: • an undersupply of professionally qualified social work and human service practitioners to meet workforce demand; • the rapid ageing of the workforce with many workers approaching retirement; • limited career and salary structures creating disincentives to retention; • a highly diverse qualification base across the workforce. This diversity is inconsistent with the specialist knowledge and skills required of practitioners in many domains of community service provision. Our study revealed a lack of co-ordination across VET and higher education to meet the educational needs of the social work and human services workforce. Our analysis identified: • strong representation of equity groups in social work and related human service programs, although further participation of these groups is still needed; • the absence of clear articulation pathways between VET and higher education programs due the absence of co-ordination and planning between these sectors; • substantial variation in the content of the diverse range of social work and human service programs, with accredited programs conforming to national standards and some others in social and behavioural sciences lacking any external validation; • financial obstacles and disincentives to social work and human service practitioners in achieving postgraduate level qualifications. We recommend that: • DEEWR identify accredited social work and human services courses as a national education priority (similar to education and nursing). This will help ensure the supply of professional workers to this sector; • VET and higher education providers are encouraged to collaboratively develop clear and accessible educational pathways across the educational sectors; • DEEWR undertake a national workforce analysis and planning processes in collaboration with CSDMAC, and all social and community services stakeholders, to ensure workforce sustainability; and • COAG develop a national regulation framework for the social and community services workforce. This would provide sound accountability systems, and rigorous practice and educational standards necessary for quality service provision. It will also ensure much needed public confidence in this workforce.

Parallel streaming signature EM-tree: A clustering algorithm for web scale applications

The proliferation of the web presents an unsolved problem of automatically analyzing billions of pages of natural language. We introduce a scalable algorithm that clusters hundreds of millions of web pages into hundreds of thousands of clusters. It does this on a single mid-range machine using efficient algorithms and compressed document representations. It is applied to two web-scale crawls covering tens of terabytes. ClueWeb09 and ClueWeb12 contain 500 and 733 million web pages and were clustered into 500,000 to 700,000 clusters. To the best of our knowledge, such fine grained clustering has not been previously demonstrated. Previous approaches clustered a sample that limits the maximum number of discoverable clusters. The proposed EM-tree algorithm uses the entire collection in clustering and produces several orders of magnitude more clusters than the existing algorithms. Fine grained clustering is necessary for meaningful clustering in massive collections where the number of distinct topics grows linearly with collection size. These fine-grained clusters show an improved cluster quality when assessed with two novel evaluations using ad hoc search relevance judgments and spam classifications for external validation. These evaluations solve the problem of assessing the quality of clusters where categorical labeling is unavailable and unfeasible.