An extended regression approach to estimating loads and their uncertainties in Great Barrier Reef catchments

There are numerous load estimation methods available, some of which are captured in various online tools. However, most estimators are subject to large biases statistically, and their associated uncertainties are often not reported. This makes interpretation difficult and the estimation of trends or determination of optimal sampling regimes impossible to assess. In this paper, we first propose two indices for measuring the extent of sampling bias, and then provide steps for obtaining reliable load estimates by minimizing the biases and making use of possible predictive variables. The load estimation procedure can be summarized by the following four steps: - (i) output the flow rates at regular time intervals (e.g. 10 minutes) using a time series model that captures all the peak flows; - (ii) output the predicted flow rates as in (i) at the concentration sampling times, if the corresponding flow rates are not collected; - (iii) establish a predictive model for the concentration data, which incorporates all possible predictor variables and output the predicted concentrations at the regular time intervals as in (i), and; - (iv) obtain the sum of all the products of the predicted flow and the predicted concentration over the regular time intervals to represent an estimate of the load. The key step to this approach is in the development of an appropriate predictive model for concentration. This is achieved using a generalized regression (rating-curve) approach with additional predictors that capture unique features in the flow data, namely the concept of the first flush, the location of the event on the hydrograph (e.g. rise or fall) and cumulative discounted flow. The latter may be thought of as a measure of constituent exhaustion occurring during flood events. The model also has the capacity to accommodate autocorrelation in model errors which are the result of intensive sampling during floods. Incorporating this additional information can significantly improve the predictability of concentration, and ultimately the precision with which the pollutant load is estimated. We also provide a measure of the standard error of the load estimate which incorporates model, spatial and/or temporal errors. This method also has the capacity to incorporate measurement error incurred through the sampling of flow. We illustrate this approach using the concentrations of total suspended sediment (TSS) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) and gauged flow data from the Burdekin River, a catchment delivering to the Great Barrier Reef. The sampling biases for NOx concentrations range from 2 to 10 times indicating severe biases. As we expect, the traditional average and extrapolation methods produce much higher estimates than those when bias in sampling is taken into account.

Quaternary refugia of the sweet chestnut (Castanea sativa Mill.): an extended palynological approach

Knowledge about the glacial refugia of the thermophilous European Castanea sativa Mill. (sweet chestnut) is still inadequate. Its original range of distribution has been masked by strong human impact. Moreover, under natural conditions the species was probably admixed with other taxa (such as Quercus, Fraxinus, Fagus, Tilia) and thus possibly represented by low percentages in pollen records. In this paper we try to overcome the difficulties related to the scarcity and irregularity of chestnut pollen records by considering 1471 sites and extending the palynological approach to develop a Castanea refugium probability index (IRP), aimed at detecting possible chestnut refugia where chestnuts survived during the last glaciation. The results are in close agreement with the current literature on the refugia of other thermophilous European trees. The few divergences are most probably due to the large amount of new data integrated in this study, rather than to fundamental disagreements about data and data interpretation. The main chestnut refugia are located in the Transcaucasian region, north-western Anatolia, the hinterland of the Tyrrhenian coast from Liguria to Lazio along the Apennine range, the region around Lago di Monticchio (Monte Vulture) in southern Italy, and the Cantabrian coast on the Iberian peninsula. Despite the high likelihood of Castanea refugia in the Balkan Peninsula and north-eastern Italy (Colli Euganei, Monti Berici, Emilia-Romagna) as suggested by the IRP, additional palaeobotanical investigations are needed to assess whether these regions effectively sheltered chestnut during the last glaciation. Other regions, such as the Isère Département in France, the region across north-west Portugal and Galicia, and the hilly region along the Mediterranean coast of Syria and Lebanon were classified as areas of medium refugium probability. Our results reveal an unexpected spatial richness of potential Castanea refugia. It is likely that other European trees had similar distribution ranges during the last glaciation. It is thus conceivable that shelter zones with favourable microclimates were probably more numerous and more widely dispersed across Europe than so far assumed. In the future, more attention should be paid to pollen traces of sporadic taxa thought to have disappeared from a given area during the last glacial and post-glacial period.

Retrolabyrinthine approach for surgical placement of auditory brainstem implants in children

Conclusion: The extended retrolabyrinthine approach (RLA) is a safe and reliable approach for auditory brainstem placement in children. The surgical landmarks to reach cochlear nucleus are adequately exposed by this approach. Objective: To describe a new approach option for auditory brainstem implants (ABIs) in children, highlighting the anatomical landmarks to appropriately expose the foramen of Luschka. Methods: Three prelingually deafened children consecutively operated for ABIs via the RLA. Results: ABI placement via the RLA was successfully performed in all children without any further complications except multidirectional nystagmus in one child. The RLA we employed differed from that used for vestibular schwannoma only in the removal of the posterior semicircular canal. The lateral and superior semicircular canals and the vestibule remained intact, and there was no need to expose the dura of the internal auditory meatus. The jugular bulb was completely exposed to allow adequate visualization of the ninth cranial nerve and cerebellar flocculus.

The resistance of PRESENT-80 against related-key differential attacks

We examine the security of the 64-bit lightweight block cipher PRESENT-80 against related-key differential attacks. With a computer search we are able to prove that for any related-key differential characteristic on full-round PRESENT-80, the probability of the characteristic only in the 64-bit state is not higher than 2−64. To overcome the exponential (in the state and key sizes) computational complexity of the search we use truncated differences, however as the key schedule is not nibble oriented, we switch to actual differences and apply early abort techniques to prune the tree-based search. With a new method called extended split approach we are able to make the whole search feasible and we implement and run it in real time. Our approach targets the PRESENT-80 cipher however,with small modifications can be reused for other lightweight ciphers as well.

Interpersonal coordination tendencies supporting the creation/prevention of goal scoring opportunities in futsal

Research on 1vs1 sub-phases in team sports has shown how one player coordinates his/her actions with his/her opponent and the location of a target/goal to attain performance objectives. In this study, we extended this approach to analysis of 5vs5 competitive performance in the team sport of futsal to provide a performance analysis framework that explains how players coordinate their actions to create/prevent opportunities to score goals. For this purpose, we recorded all 10 futsal matches of the 2009 Lusophony Games held in Lisbon. We analysed the displacement trajectories of a shooting attacker and marking defender in plays ending in a goal, a goalkeeper's save, and a defender's interception, at four specific moments during performance: (1) assisting attacker's ball reception; (2) moment of passing; (3) shooter's ball reception, and; (4) shot on goal. Statistical analysis showed that when a goal was scored, the defender's angle to the goal and to the attacker tended to decrease, the attacker was able to move to the same distance to the goal alongside the defender, and the attacker was closer to the defender and moving at the same velocity (at least) as the defender. This study identified emergent patterns of coordination between attackers and defenders under key competitive task constraints, such as the location of the goal, which supported successful performance in futsal.

Molecular hydrodynamic theory of non‐Markovian collective orientational relaxation in dense dipolar liquids

A microscopic study of the non‐Markovian (or memory) effects on the collective orientational relaxation in a dense dipolar liquid is carried out by using an extended hydrodynamic approach which provides a reliable description of the dynamical processes occuring at the molecular length scales. Detailed calculations of the wave‐vector dependent orientational correlation functions are presented. The memory effects are found to play an important role; the non‐Markovian results differ considerably from that of the Markovian theory. In particular, a slow long‐time decay of the longitudinal orientational correlation function is observed for dense liquids which becomes weaker in the presence of a sizeable translational contribution to the collective orientational relaxation. This slow decay can be attributed to the intermolecular correlations at the molecular length scales. The longitudinal component of the orientational correlation function becomes oscillatory in the underdamped limit of momenta relaxations and the frequency dependence of the friction reduce the frictional resistance on the collective excitations (commonly known as dipolarons) to make them long lived. The theory predicts that these dipolarons can, therefore, be important in chemical relaxation processes, in contradiction to the claims of some earlier theoretical studies.

Supporting excavations in clay - From analysis to decision-making

Finite Element Analysis (FEA) is used to calibrate a decision-making tool based on an extension of the Mobilized Strength Design (MSD) method which permits the designer an extremely simple method of predicting ground displacements during construction. This newly extended MSD approach accommodates a number of issues which are important in underground construction between in-situ walls, including: alternative base heave mechanisms suitable either for wide excavations in relatively shallow soft clay strata, or narrow excavations in relatively deep soft strata; the influence of support system stiffness in relation to the sequence of propping of the wall; and the capability of dealing with stratified ground. These developments should make it possible for a design engineer to take informed decisions on the relationship between prop spacing and ground movements, or the influence of wall stiffness, or on the need for and influence of a jet-grouted base slab, for example, without having to conduct project-specific FEA. © 2009 Taylor & Francis Group.