Supply chain management systems benefits : the expectation-confirmation theory perspective

Organizations adopt a Supply Chain Management System (SCMS) expecting benefits to the organization and its functions. However, organizations are facing mounting challenges to realizing benefits through SCMS. Studies suggest a growing dissatisfaction among client organizations due to an increasing gap between expectations and realization of SCMS benefits. Further, reflecting the Enterprise System studies such as Seddon et al. (2010), SCMS benefits are also expected to flow to the organization throughout its lifecycle rather than being realized all at once. This research therefore proposes to derive a lifecycle-wide understanding of SCMS benefits and realization to derive a benefit expectation management framework to attain the full potential of an SCMS. The primary research question of this study is: How can client organizations better manage their benefit expectations of SCM systems? The specific research goals of the current study include: (1) to better understand the misalignment of received and expected benefits of SCM systems; (2) to identify the key factors influencing SCM system expectations and to develop a framework to manage SCMS benefits; (3) to explore how organizational satisfaction is influenced by the lack of SCMS benefit confirmation; and (4) to explore how to improve the realization of SCM system benefits. Expectation-Confirmation Theory (ECT) provides the theoretical underpinning for this study. ECT has been widely used in the consumer behavior literature to study customer satisfaction, post-purchase behavior and service marketing in general. Recently, ECT has been extended into Information Systems (IS) research focusing on individual user satisfaction and IS continuance. However, only a handful of studies have employed ECT to study organizational satisfaction on large-scale IS. The current study will enrich the research stream by extending ECT into organizational-level analysis and verifying the preliminary findings of relevant works by Staples et al. (2002), Nevo and Chan (2007) and Nevo and Wade (2007). Moreover, this study will go further trying to operationalize the constructs of ECT into the context of SCMS. The empirical findings of the study commence with a content analysis, through which 41 vendor reports and academic reports are analyzed yielding sixty expected benefits of SCMS. Then, the expected benefits are compared with the benefits realized at a case organization in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods industry sector that had implemented a SAP Supply Chain Management System seven years earlier. The study develops an SCMS Benefit Expectation Management (SCMS-BEM) Framework. The comparison of benefit expectations and confirmations highlights that, while certain benefits are realized earlier in the lifecycle, other benefits could take almost a decade to realize. Further analysis and discussion on how the developed SCMS-BEM Framework influences ECT when applied in SCMS was also conducted. It is recommended that when establishing their expectations of the SCMS, clients should remember that confirmation of these expectations will have a long lifecycle, as shown in the different time periods in the SCMS-BEM Framework. Moreover, the SCMS-BEM Framework will allow organizations to maintain high levels of satisfaction through careful mitigation and confirming expectations based on the lifecycle phase. In addition, the study reveals that different stakeholder groups have different expectations of the same SCMS. The perspective of multiple stakeholders has significant implications for the application of ECT in the SCMS context. When forming expectations of the SCMS, the collection of organizational benefits of SCMS should represent the perceptions of all stakeholder groups. The same mechanism should be employed in the measurements of received SCMS benefits. Moreover, for SCMS, there exists interdependence of the satisfaction among the various stakeholders. The satisfaction of decision-makers or the authorized staff is not only driven by their own expectation confirmation level, it is also influenced by the confirmation level of other stakeholders‘ expectations in the organization. Satisfaction from any one particular stakeholder group can not reflect the true satisfaction of the client organization. Furthermore, it is inferred from the SCMS-BEM Framework that organizations should place emphasis on the viewpoints of the operational and management staff when evaluating the benefits of SCMS in the short and middle term. At the same time, organizations should be placing more attention on the perspectives of strategic staff when evaluating the performance of the SCMS in the long term.

Supply chain benefits expectation management framework

Organizations invest heavily in Supply Chain Management Systems expecting the benefits promised by the software vendors and the implementation partners. However, both academic and industry reports suggest that there is growing dissatisfaction among client organizations due to an increasing gap in benefits purported by the software vendors and benefits realised by the client. In order to better manage expectations of the client organization, this study proposes a Benefit Expectation Management Framework for Supply Chain Management Systems, based on Expectation-Confirmation Theory. This study derives 60 expected benefits of Supply Chain Management Systems through 41 vendor-reported customer stories and academic papers. Through comparing those benefits with the received benefits by a case organization that has implemented SAP Supply Chain Management Systems for seven years, two salient factors – long timetable and multiple stakeholders – have been identified as the controlling factors affecting the confirmation level of Supply Chain Management System expectations and further impacting the satisfaction of a client organization. The case study also highlights the likely causes for realized benefits and enduring issues in relation to the Supply Chain Management Systems.

Valuing conservation benefits of an offshore marine protected area

Increasing anthropogenic pressure in the offshore marine environment highlights the need for improved management and conservation of offshore ecosystems. This study scrutinises the applicability of a discrete choice experiment to value the expected benefits arising from the conservation of an offshore sandbank in UK waters. The valuation scenario refers to the UK part of the Dogger Bank, in the southern North Sea, and is based on real-world management options for fisheries, wind farms and marine protection currently under discussion for the site. It is assessed to what extent the general public perceive and value conservation benefits arising from an offshore marine protected area. The survey reveals support for marine conservation measures despite the general public’s limited prior knowledge of current marine planning. Results further show significant values for an increase in species diversity, the protection of certain charismatic species and a restriction in the spread of invasive species across the site. Implications for policy and management with respect to commercial fishing, wind farm construction and nature conservation are discussed.

Using performance measurement models for benefit realization with enterprise systems: The Queensland Government approach (Case Study)

A range of influences, technical and organizational, has encouraged the wide spread adaption of Enterprise Systems (ES). Nevertheless, there is a growing consensus that Enterprise Systems have in the many cases failed to provide the expected benefits to organizations. This paper presents ongoing research, which analyzes the benefits realization approach of the Queensland Government. This approach applies a modified Balance Scorecard. First, history and background of Queensland Government’s Enterprise Systems initiative is introduced. Second, the most common reasons for ES under performance are related. Third, relevant performance measurement models and the Balanced Scorecard in particular are discussed. Finally, the Queensland Government initiative is evaluated in light of this overview of current work in the area. In the current and future work, the authors aim to use their active involvement in Queensland Government’s benefits realization initiative for an Action Research based project investigating the appropriateness of the Balanced Scorecard for the purposes of Enterprise Systems benefits realization.

A balanced scorecard approach to enterprise systems performance measurement

A range of influences, both technical and organisational, has encouraged the wide spread adoption of Enterprise Systems (ES). Nevertheless, there is a growing consensus that Enterprise Systems have in many cases failed to provide expected benefits. The increasing role of, and dependency on ES (and IT in general), and the ‘uncertainty’ of these large investments, have created a strong need to monitor and measure ES performance. This paper reports on a research project aimed at deriving an ‘Enterprise Systems benefits measurement instrument’. The research seeks to identify how Enterprise Systems benefits can be usefully measured, with a ‘balance’ between qualitative and quantitative factors.

Program and project management

Program management serves as an overall vehicle for the transformation effort. It aims to support the implementation of the decided strategy in order to achieve the expected benefits in a business transformation initiative. A program is defined as a group of related projects managed in a coordinated way to obtain benefits and control not available when managing them individually . A project on the other hand, is a temporary endeavor undertaken to create a unique product, service, or result. Projects tend to have definite start and finish points, with the aim of delivering a predetermined output, giving them relatively clear development paths from initiation to delivery. Programs, on the contrary, exist to create value by enriching the management of projects in isolation. Programs typically have a more strategic vision of the desired end goal, but no clearly defined path to get there. Therefore, program management is expected to deal with the uncertainty surrounding the achievement of the vision, whereas projects work best where the outputs can be well defined.

A discourse on the non-method

In spite of the activism of professional bodies and researchers, empirical evidence shows that project management still does not deliver the expected benefits and promises. Hence, many have questioned the validity of the hegemonic rationalist paradigm anchored in the Enlightenment and Natural Sciences tradition supporting project management research and practice for the last 60 years and the lack of relevance to practice of the current conceptual base of project management. In order to address these limitations many authors, taking a post-modernist stance in social sciences, build on ‘pre-modern’ philosophies such as the Aristotelian one, specially emphasizing the role of praxis (activity), and phronesis (practical wisdom, prudence). Indeed, ‘Praxis … is the central category of the philosophy which is not merely an interpretation of the world, but is also a guide to its transformation …’ (Vazquez, 1977:. 149). Therefore, praxis offers an important focus for practitioners and researchers in social sciences, one in which theory is integrated with practice at the point of intervention. Simply stated, praxis can serve as a common ground for those interested in basic and applied research by providing knowledge of the reality in which action, informed by theory, takes place. Consequently, I suggest a ‘praxeological’ style of reasoning (praxeology being defined as study or science of human actions and conduct, including praxis, practices and phronesis) and to go beyond the ‘Theory-Practice’ divide. Moreover, I argue that we need to move away from the current dichotomy between the two classes ‘scholars experts-researchers’ and ‘managers/workers-practitioners-participants’. Considering one single class of ‘PraXitioner’, becoming a phronimos, may contribute to create new perspectives and open up new ways of thinking and acting in project situations. Thus, I call for a Perestroika in researching and acting in project management situations. My intent is to suggest a balanced praxeological view of the apparent opposition between social and natural science approaches. I explore, in this chapter, three key questions, covering the ontological, epistemological and praxeological dimensions of project management in action. 1. Are the research approaches being currently used appropriate for generating contributions that matter to both theory and practice with regards to what a ‘project’ is or to what we do when we call a specific situation ‘a project’? 2. On the basis of which intellectual virtues is the knowledge generated and what is the impact for theory and practice? 3. Are the modes of action of the practitioners ‘prudent’ and are they differentiating or reconciling formal and abstract rationality from substantive rationality and situated reasoning with regards to the mode of action they adopt in particular project situations? The investigation of the above questions leads me to debate about ‘Project Management-as-Praxis’, and to suggest ‘A’ (not ‘THE’) ‘praxeological’ style of reasoning and mode of inquiry – acknowledging a non-paradigmatic, subjective and kaleidoscopic perspective – for ‘Knowing-as-Practicing’ in project management. In short, this is about making a ‘Projects Science’ that matters.

What is a good project manager? Reconceptualizing the “do” : an Aristotelian perspective

In Social Science (Organization Studies, Economics, Management Science, Strategy, International Relations, Political Science…) the quest for addressing the question “what is a good practitioner?” has been around for centuries, with the underlying assumptions that good practitioners should lead organizations to higher levels of performance. Hence to ask “what is a good “captain”?” is not a new question, we should add! (e.g. Tsoukas & Cummings, 1997, p. 670; Söderlund, 2004, p. 190). This interrogation leads to consider problems such as the relations between dichotomies Theory and Practice, rigor and relevance of research, ways of knowing and knowledge forms. On the one hand we face the “Enlightenment” assumptions underlying modern positivist Social science, grounded in “unity-of-science dream of transforming and reducing all kinds of knowledge to one basic form and level” and cause-effects relationships (Eikeland, 2012, p. 20), and on the other, the postmodern interpretivist proposal, and its “tendency to make all kinds of knowing equivalent” (Eikeland, 2012, p. 20). In the project management space, this aims at addressing one of the fundamental problems in the field: projects still do not deliver their expected benefits and promises and therefore the socio-economical good (Hodgson & Cicmil, 2007; Bredillet, 2010, Lalonde et al., 2012). The Cartesian tradition supporting projects research and practice for the last 60 years (Bredillet, 2010, p. 4) has led to the lack of relevance to practice of the current conceptual base of project management, despite the sum of research, development of standards, best & good practices and the related development of project management bodies of knowledge (Packendorff, 1995, p. 319-323; Cicmil & Hodgson, 2006, p. 2–6, Hodgson & Cicmil, 2007, p. 436–7; Winter et al., 2006, p. 638). Referring to both Hodgson (2002) and Giddens (1993), we could say that “those who expect a “social-scientific Newton” to revolutionize this young field “are not only waiting for a train that will not arrive, but are in the wrong station altogether” (Hodgson, 2002, p. 809; Giddens, 1993, p. 18). While, in the postmodern stream mainly rooted in the “practice turn” (e.g. Hällgren & Lindahl, 2012), the shift from methodological individualism to social viscosity and the advocated pluralism lead to reinforce the “functional stupidity” (Alvesson & Spicer, 2012, p. 1194) this postmodern stream aims at overcoming. We suggest here that addressing the question “what is a good PM?” requires a philosophy of practice perspective to complement the “usual” philosophy of science perspective. The questioning of the modern Cartesian tradition mirrors a similar one made within Social science (Say, 1964; Koontz, 1961, 1980; Menger, 1985; Warry, 1992; Rothbard, 1997a; Tsoukas & Cummings, 1997; Flyvbjerg, 2001; Boisot & McKelvey, 2010), calling for new thinking. In order to get outside the rationalist ‘box’, Toulmin (1990, p. 11), along with Tsoukas & Cummings (1997, p. 655), suggests a possible path, summarizing the thoughts of many authors: “It can cling to the discredited research program of the purely theoretical (i.e. “modern”) philosophy, which will end up by driving it out of business: it can look for new and less exclusively theoretical ways of working, and develop the methods needed for a more practical (“post-modern”) agenda; or it can return to its pre-17th century traditions, and try to recover the lost (“pre-modern”) topics that were side-tracked by Descartes, but can be usefully taken up for the future” (Toulmin, 1990, p. 11). Thus, paradoxically and interestingly, in their quest for the so-called post-modernism, many authors build on “pre-modern” philosophies such as the Aristotelian one (e.g. MacIntyre, 1985, 2007; Tsoukas & Cummings, 1997; Flyvbjerg, 2001; Blomquist et al., 2010; Lalonde et al., 2012). It is perhaps because the post-modern stream emphasizes a dialogic process restricted to reliance on voice and textual representation, it limits the meaning of communicative praxis, and weaking the practice because it turns away attention from more fundamental issues associated with problem-definition and knowledge-for-use in action (Tedlock, 1983, p. 332–4; Schrag, 1986, p. 30, 46–7; Warry, 1992, p. 157). Eikeland suggests that the Aristotelian “gnoseology allows for reconsidering and reintegrating ways of knowing: traditional, practical, tacit, emotional, experiential, intuitive, etc., marginalised and considered insufficient by modernist [and post-modernist] thinking” (Eikeland, 2012, p. 20—21). By contrast with the modernist one-dimensional thinking and relativist and pluralistic post-modernism, we suggest, in a turn to an Aristotelian pre-modern lens, to re-conceptualise (“re” involving here a “re”-turn to pre-modern thinking) the “do” and to shift the perspective from what a good PM is (philosophy of science lens) to what a good PM does (philosophy of practice lens) (Aristotle, 1926a). As Tsoukas & Cummings put it: “In the Aristotelian tradition to call something good is to make a factual statement. To ask, for example, ’what is a good captain’?’ is not to come up with a list of attributes that good captains share (as modem contingency theorists would have it), but to point out the things that those who are recognized as good captains do.” (Tsoukas & Cummings, 1997, p. 670) Thus, this conversation offers a dialogue and deliberation about a central question: What does a good project manager do? The conversation is organized around a critic of the underlying assumptions supporting the modern, post-modern and pre-modern relations to ways of knowing, forms of knowledge and “practice”.

The affect heuristic and public support for three types of wood smoke mitigation policies

This study applied the affect heuristic model to investigate key psychological factors (affective associations, perceived benefits, and costs of wood heating) contributing to public support for three distinct types of wood smoke mitigation policies: education, incentives, and regulation. The sample comprised 265 residents of Armidale, an Australian regional community adversely affected by winter wood smoke pollution. Our results indicate that residents with stronger positive affective associations with wood heating expressed less support for wood smoke mitigation policies involving regulation. This relationship was fully mediated by expected benefits and costs associated with wood heating. Affective associations were unrelated to public support for policies involving education and incentives, which were broadly endorsed by all segments of the community, and were more strongly associated with rational considerations. Latent profile analysis revealed no evidence to support the proposition that some community members experience internal “heart versus head” conflicts in which their positive affective associations with wood heating would be at odds with their risk judgments about the dangers of wood smoke pollution. Affective associations and cost/benefit judgments were very consistent with each other.

Optimal eradication: When to stop looking for an invasive plant

The notion of being sure that you have completely eradicated an invasive species is fanciful because of imperfect detection and persistent seed banks. Eradication is commonly declared either on an ad hoc basis, on notions of seed bank longevity, or on setting arbitrary thresholds of 1% or 5% confidence that the species is not present. Rather than declaring eradication at some arbitrary level of confidence, we take an economic approach in which we stop looking when the expected costs outweigh the expected benefits. We develop theory that determines the number of years of absent surveys required to minimize the net expected cost. Given detection of a species is imperfect, the optimal stopping time is a trade-off between the cost of continued surveying and the cost of escape and damage if eradication is declared too soon. A simple rule of thumb compares well to the exact optimal solution using stochastic dynamic programming. Application of the approach to the eradication programme of Helenium amarum reveals that the actual stopping time was a precautionary one given the ranges for each parameter. © 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Comparative exploration of narrative processes for better and poorer outcomes for depression

Background Contemporary psychotherapy research demonstrates that whilst most clients respond positively to psychological interventions, a small, but significant proportion of clients fail to experience the expected benefits of therapy. Although methodologies exist that enable the identification of successful and unsuccessful therapy, we have a limited understanding of the processes associated with these outcomes. Aim The current study sought to examine the relationship between therapeutic outcome and therapeutic language. Methodology: The therapeutic outcomes of 42 trainee-therapists who provided psychotherapy to 173 clients were tracked with the OQ-45.2 over a 5 year period with the view of identifying the client/ trainee-therapist dyads with the best and poorest outcomes. The 6 best outcome and 6 poorest outcome client/ trainee-therapist dyads were identified in order to examine the characteristics of therapeutic conversations associated with better and poorer therapy outcomes. Therapeutic conversations were analysed with the Narrative Process Coding System. Findings The best outcome client/ trainee-therapist dyads demonstrated significant increases in reflexive conversation over the course of psychotherapy. Implications Examining the practices of the best and poorest outcome client/ trainee-therapist dyads with objective measures of therapy outcome provides an important first step in understanding how therapeutic language may contribute to the greatest therapeutic improvement or deterioration.

New Generation Rollingstock Depot: Case Study Report

This report summarises the findings of a case study on Queensland’s New Generation Rollingstock (NGR) Project carried out as part of SBEnrc Project 2.34 Driving Whole-of-life Efficiencies through BIM and Procurement. This case study is one of three exemplar projects studied in order to leverage academic research in defining indicators for measuring tangible and intangible benefits of Building Information Modelling (BIM) across a project’s life-cycle in infrastructure and buildings. The NGR is an AUD 4.4 billion project carried out under an Availability Payment Public-Private Partnership (PPP) between the Queensland Government and the Bomabardier-led QTECTIC consortium comprising Bombardier Transportation, John Laing, ITOCHU Corporation and Aberdeen Infrastructure Investments. BIM has been deployed on the project from conceptual stages to drive both design and the currently ongoing construction at the Wulkuraka Project Site. This case study sourced information from a series of semi-structured interviews covering a cross-section of key stakeholders on the project. The present research identified 25 benefits gained from implementing BIM processes and tools. Some of the most prominent benefits were those leading to improved outcomes and higher customer satisfaction such as improved communications, data and information management, and coordination. There were also a number of expected benefits for future phases such as: • Improved decision making through the use of BIM for managing assets • Improved models through BIM maturity • Better utilisation of BIM for procurement on similar future projects • New capacity to specify the content of BIM models within contracts There were also three benefits that were expected to have been achieved but were not realised on the NGR project. These were higher construction information quality levels, better alignment in design teams as well as project teams, and capability improvements in measuring the impact of BIM on construction safety. This report includes individual profiles describing each benefit as well as the tools and processes that enabled them. Four key BIM metrics were found to be currently in use and six more were identified as potential metrics for the future. This case study also provides insights into challenges associated with implementing BIM on a project of the size and complexity of the NGR. Procurement aspects and lessons learned for managers are also highlighted, including a list of recommendations for developing a framework to assess the benefits of BIM across the project life-cycle.

Optimal eradication: when to stop looking for an invasive plant

The notion of being sure that you have completely eradicated an invasive species is fanciful because of imperfect detection and persistent seed banks. Eradication is commonly declared either on an ad hoc basis, on notions of seed bank longevity, or on setting arbitrary thresholds of 1% or 5% confidence that the species is not present. Rather than declaring eradication at some arbitrary level of confidence, we take an economic approach in which we stop looking when the expected costs outweigh the expected benefits. We develop theory that determines the number of years of absent surveys required to minimize the net expected cost. Given detection of a species is imperfect, the optimal stopping time is a trade-off between the cost of continued surveying and the cost of escape and damage if eradication is declared too soon. A simple rule of thumb compares well to the exact optimal solution using stochastic dynamic programming. Application of the approach to the eradication programme of Helenium amarum reveals that the actual stopping time was a precautionary one given the ranges for each parameter.

Implementation costs of Agricultural Management Practices for Water Quality Improvement in the Great Barrier Reef Catchments. CSIRO: Water for Healthy Country National Research Flagship

Executive summary. In this report we analyse implementation costs and benefits for agricultural management practices, grouped into farming systems. In order to do so, we compare plot scale gross margins for the dominant agricultural production systems (sugarcane, grazing and banana cultivation) in the NRM regions Wet Tropics, Burdekin Dry Tropics and Mackay Whitsundays. Furthermore, where available, we present investment requirements for changing to improved farming systems. It must be noted that transaction costs are not captured within this project. For sugarcane, this economic analysis shows that there are expected benefits to sugarcane growers in the different regions through transitions to C and B class farming systems. Further transition to A-class farming systems can come at a cost, depending on the capital investment required and the length of the investment period. Obviously, the costs and benefits will vary for each individual grower and will depend on their starting point and individual property scenario therefore each circumstance needs to be carefully considered before making a change in management practice. In grazing, overall, reducing stocking rates comes at a cost (reduced benefits). However, when operating at low utilisation rates in wetter country, lowering stocking rates can potentially come at a benefit. With win-win potential, extension is preferred to assist farmer in changing management practices to improve their land condition. When reducing stocking rates comes at a cost, incentives may be applicable to support change among farmers. For banana cultivation, the results indicate that the transition to C and B class management practices is a worthwhile proposition from an economic perspective. For a change from B to A class farming systems however, it is not worthwhile from a financial perspective. This is largely due to the large capital investment associated with the change in irrigation system and negative impact in whole of farm gross margin. Overall, benefits will vary for each individual grower depending on their starting point and their individual property scenario. The results presented in this report are one possible set of figures to show the changes in profitability of a grower operating in different management classes. The results in this report are not prescriptive of every landholder. Landholders will have different costs and benefits from transitioning to improved practices, even if similar operations are practiced, hence it is recommended that landholders that are willing to change management undertake their own research and analysis into the expected costs and benefits for their own soil types and property circumstances.

Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery

Non-Technical Summary Seafood CRC Project 2009/774. Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery Principal Investigator: Dr Tony Courtney, Principal Fisheries Biologist Fisheries and Aquaculture, Agri-Science Queensland Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Level B1, Ecosciences Precinct, Joe Baker St, Dutton Park, Queensland 4102 Email: tony.courtney@daff.qld.gov.au Project objectives: 1. Review the literature and data (i.e., economic, biological and logbook) relevant to the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 2. Identify and prioritise management objectives for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery, as identified by the trawl fishers. 3. Undertake an economic analysis of Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 4. Quantify long-term changes to fishing power for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 5. Assess priority harvest strategies identified in 2 (above). Present results to, and discuss results with, Moreton Bay Seafood Industry Association (MBSIA), fishers and Fisheries Queensland. Note: Additional, specific objectives for 2 (above) were developed by fishers and the MBSIA after commencement of the project. These are presented in detail in section 5 (below). The project was an initiative of the MBSIA, primarily in response to falling profitability in the Moreton Bay prawn trawl fishery. The analyses were undertaken by a consortium of DAFF, CSIRO and University of Queensland researchers. This report adopted the Australian Standard Fish Names (http://www.fishnames.com.au/). Trends in catch and effort The Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery is a multispecies fishery, with the majority of the catch composed of Greasyback Prawns (Metapenaeus bennettae), Brown Tiger Prawns (Penaeus esculentus), Eastern King Prawns (Melicertus plebejus), squid (Uroteuthis spp., Sepioteuthis spp.), Banana Prawns (Fenneropenaeus merguiensis), Endeavour Prawns (Metapenaeus ensis, Metapenaeus endeavouri) and Moreton Bay bugs (Thenus parindicus). Other commercially important byproduct includes blue swimmer crabs (Portunus armatus), three-spot crabs (Portunus sanguinolentus), cuttlefish (Sepia spp.) and mantis shrimp (Oratosquilla spp.). Logbook catch and effort data show that total annual reported catch of prawns from the Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery has declined to 315 t in 2008 from a maximum of 901 t in 1990. The number of active licensed vessels participating in the fishery has also declined from 207 in 1991 to 57 in 2010. Similarly, fishing effort has fallen from a peak of 13,312 boat-days in 1999 to 3817 boat-days in 2008 – a 71% reduction. The declines in catch and effort are largely attributed to reduced profitability in the fishery due to increased operational costs and depressed prawn prices. The low prawn prices appear to be attributed to Australian aquacultured prawns and imported aquacultured vannamei prawns, displacing the markets for trawl-caught prawns, especially small species such as Greasyback Prawns which traditionally dominated landings in Moreton Bay. In recent years, the relatively high Australian dollar has resulted in reduced exports of Australian wild-caught prawns. This has increased supply on the domestic market which has also suppressed price increases. Since 2002, Brown Tiger Prawns have dominated annual reported landings in the Moreton Bay fishery. While total catch and effort in the bay have declined to historically low levels, the annual catch and catch rates of Brown Tiger Prawns have been at record highs in recent years. This appears to be at least partially attributed to the tiger prawn stock having recovered from excessive effort in previous decades. The total annual value of the Moreton Bay trawl fishery catch, including byproduct, is about $5 million, of which Brown Tiger Prawns account for about $2 million. Eastern King Prawns make up about 10% of the catch and are mainly caught in the bay from October to December as they migrate to offshore waters outside the bay where they contribute to a large mono-specific trawl fishery. Some of the Eastern King Prawns harvested in Moreton Bay may be growth overfished (i.e., caught below the size required to maximise yield or value), although the optimum size-at-capture was not determined in this study. Banana Prawns typically make up about 5% of the catch, but can exceed 20%, particularly following heavy rainfall. Economic analysis of the fishery From the economic survey, cash profits were, on average, positive for both fleet segments in both years of the survey. However, after the opportunity cost of capital and depreciation were taken into account, the residual owner-operator income was relatively low, and substantially lower than the average share of revenue paid to employed skippers. Consequently, owner-operators were earning less than their opportunity cost of their labour, suggesting that the fleets were economically unviable in the longer term. The M2 licensed fleet were, on average, earning similar boat cash profits as the T1/M1 fleet, although after the higher capital costs were accounted for the T1/M1 boats were earning substantially lower returns to owner-operator labour. The mean technical efficiency for the fleet as a whole was estimated to be 0.67. That is, on average, the boats were only catching 67 per cent of what was possible given their level of inputs (hours fished and hull units). Almost one-quarter of observations had efficiency scores above 0.8, suggesting a substantial proportion of the fleet are relatively efficient, but some are also relatively inefficient. Both fleets had similar efficiency distributions, with median technical efficiency score of 0.71 and 0.67 for the M2 and T1/M1 boats respectively. These scores are reasonably consistent with other studies of prawn trawl fleets in Australia, although higher average efficiency scores were found in the NSW prawn trawl fleet. From the inefficiency model, several factors were found to significantly influence vessel efficiency. These included the number of years of experience as skipper, the number of generations that the skipper’s family had been fishing and the number of years schooling. Skippers with more schooling were significantly more efficient than skippers with lower levels of schooling, consistent with other studies. Skippers who had been fishing longer were, in fact, less efficient than newer skippers. However, this was mitigated in the case of skippers whose family had been involved in fishing for several generations, consistent with other studies and suggesting that skill was passed through by families over successive generations. Both the linear and log-linear regression models of total fishing effort against the marginal profit per hour performed reasonably well, explaining between 70 and 84 per cent of the variation in fishing effort. As the models had different dependent variables (one logged and the other not logged) this is not a good basis for model choice. A better comparator is the square root of the mean square error (SMSE) expressed as a percentage of the mean total effort. On this criterion, both models performed very similarly. The linear model suggests that each additional dollar of average profits per hour in the fishery increases total effort by around 26 hours each month. From the log linear model, each percentage increase in profits per hour increases total fishing effort by 0.13 per cent. Both models indicate that economic performance is a key driver of fishing effort in the fishery. The effect of removing the boat-replacement policy is to increase individual vessel profitability, catch and effort, but the overall increase in catch is less than that removed by the boats that must exit the fishery. That is, the smaller fleet (in terms of boat numbers) is more profitable but the overall catch is not expected to be greater than before. This assumes, however, that active boats are removed, and that these were also taking an average level of catch. If inactive boats are removed, then catch of the remaining group as a whole could increase by between 14 and 17 per cent depending on the degree to which costs are reduced with the new boats. This is still substantially lower than historical levels of catch by the fleet. Fishing power analyses An analysis of logbook data from 1988 to 2010, and survey information on fishing gear, was performed to estimate the long-term variation in the fleet’s ability to catch prawns (known as fishing power) and to derive abundance estimates of the three most commercially important prawn species (i.e., Brown Tiger, Eastern King and Greasyback Prawns). Generalised linear models were used to explain the variation in catch as a function of effort (i.e., hours fished per day), vessel and gear characteristics, onboard technologies, population abundance and environmental factors. This analysis estimated that fishing power associated with Brown Tiger and Eastern King Prawns increased over the past 20 years by 10–30% and declined by approximately 10% for greasybacks. The density of tiger prawns was estimated to have almost tripled from around 0.5 kg per hectare in 1988 to 1.5 kg/ha in 2010. The density of Eastern King Prawns was estimated to have fluctuated between 1 and 2 kg per hectare over this time period, without any noticeable overall trend, while Greasyback Prawn densities were estimated to have fluctuated between 2 and 6 kg per hectare, also without any distinctive trend. A model of tiger prawn catches was developed to evaluate the impact of fishing on prawn survival rates in Moreton Bay. The model was fitted to logbook data using the maximum-likelihood method to provide estimates of the natural mortality rate (0.038 and 0.062 per week) and catchability (which can be defined as the proportion of the fished population that is removed by one unit of effort, in this case, estimated to be 2.5 ± 0.4 E-04 per boat-day). This approach provided a method for industry and scientists to develop together a realistic model of the dynamics of the fishery. Several aspects need to be developed further to make this model acceptable to industry. Firstly, there is considerable evidence to suggest that temperature influences prawn catchability. This ecological effect should be incorporated before developing meaningful harvest strategies. Secondly, total effort has to be allocated between each species. Such allocation of effort could be included in the model by estimating several catchability coefficients. Nevertheless, the work presented in this report is a stepping stone towards estimating essential fishery parameters and developing representative mathematical models required to evaluate harvest strategies. Developing a method that allowed an effective discussion between industry, management and scientists took longer than anticipated. As a result, harvest strategy evaluations were preliminary and only included the most valuable species in the fishery, Brown Tiger Prawns. Additional analyses and data collection, including information on catch composition from field sampling, migration rates and recruitment, would improve the modelling. Harvest strategy evaluations As the harvest strategy evaluations are preliminary, the following results should not be adopted for management purposes until more thorough evaluations are performed. The effects, of closing the fishery for one calendar month, on the annual catch and value of Brown Tiger Prawns were investigated. Each of the 12 months (i.e., January to December) was evaluated. The results were compared against historical records to determine the magnitude of gain or loss associated with the closure. Uncertainty regarding the trawl selectivity was addressed using two selectivity curves, one with a weight at 50% selection (S50%) of 7 g, based on research data, and a second with S50% of 14 g, put forward by industry. In both cases, it was concluded that any monthly closure after February would not be beneficial to the industry. The magnitude of the benefit of closing the fishery in either January or February was sensitive to which mesh selectivity curve that was assumed, with greater benefit achieved when the smaller selectivity curve (i.e., S50% = 7 g) was assumed. Using the smaller selectivity (S50% = 7 g), the expected increase in catch value was 10–20% which equates to $200,000 to $400,000 annually, while the larger selectivity curve (S50% = 14 g) suggested catch value would be improved by 5–10%, or $100,000 to $200,000. The harvest strategy evaluations showed that greater benefits, in the order of 30–60% increases in the tiger annual catch value, could have been obtained by closing the fishery early in the year when annual effort levels were high (i.e., > 10,000 boat-days). In recent years, as effort levels have declined (i.e., ~4000 boat-days annually), expected benefits from such closures are more modest. In essence, temporal closures offer greater benefit when fishing mortality rates are high. A spatial analysis of Brown Tiger Prawn catch and effort was also undertaken to obtain a better understanding of the prawn population dynamics. This indicated that, to improve profitability of the fishery, fishers could consider closing the fishery in the period from June to October, which is already a period of low profitability. This would protect the Brown Tiger Prawn spawning stock, increase catch rates of all species in the lucrative pre-Christmas period (November–December), and provide fishers with time to do vessel maintenance, arrange markets for the next season’s harvest, and, if they wish, work at other jobs. The analysis found that the instantaneous rate of total mortality (Z) for the March–June period did not vary significantly over the last two decades. As the Brown Tiger Prawn population in Moreton Bay has clearly increased over this time period, an interesting conclusion is that the instantaneous rate of natural mortality (M) must have increased, suggesting that tiger prawn natural mortality may be density-dependent at this time of year. Mortality rates of tiger prawns for June–October were found to have decreased over the last two decades, which has probably had a positive effect on spawning stocks in the October–November spawning period. Abiotic effects on the prawns The influence of air temperature, rainfall, freshwater flow, the southern oscillation index (SOI) and lunar phase on the catch rates of the four main prawn species were investigated. The analyses were based on over 200,000 daily logbook catch records over 23 years (i.e., 1988–2010). Freshwater flow was more influential than rainfall and SOI, and of the various sources of flow, the Brisbane River has the greatest volume and influence on Moreton Bay prawn catches. A number of time-lags were also considered. Flow in the preceding month prior to catch (i.e., 30 days prior, Logflow1_30) and two months prior (31–60 days prior, Logflow31_60) had strong positive effects on Banana Prawn catch rates. Average air temperature in the preceding 4-6 months (Temp121_180) also had a large positive effect on Banana Prawn catch rates. Flow in the month immediately preceding catch (Logflow1_30) had a strong positive influence on Greasyback Prawn catch rates. Air temperature in the preceding two months prior to catch (Temp1_60) had a large positive effect on Brown Tiger Prawn catch rates. No obvious or marked effects were detected for Eastern King Prawns, although interestingly, catch rates declined with increasing air temperature 4–6 months prior to catch. As most Eastern King Prawn catches in Moreton Bay occur in October to December, the results suggest catch rates decline with increasing winter temperatures. In most cases, the prawn catch rates declined with the waxing lunar phase (high luminance/full moon), and increased with the waning moon (low luminance/new moon). The SOI explains little additional variation in prawn catch rates (~ <2%), although its influence was higher for Banana Prawns. Extrapolating findings of the analyses to long-term climate change effects should be interpreted with caution. That said, the results are consistent with likely increases in abundance in the region for the two tropical species, Banana Prawns and Brown Tiger Prawns, as coastal temperatures rise. Conversely, declines in abundance could be expected for the two temperate species, Greasyback and Eastern King Prawns. Corporate management structures An examination of alternative governance systems was requested by the industry at one of the early meetings, particularly systems that may give them greater autonomy in decision making as well as help improve the marketing of their product. Consequently, a review of alternative management systems was undertaken, with a particular focus on the potential for self-management of small fisheries (small in terms of number of participants) and corporate management. The review looks at systems that have been implemented or proposed for other small fisheries internationally, with a particular focus on self-management as well as the potential benefits and challenges for corporate management. This review also highlighted particular opportunities for the Moreton Bay prawn fishery. Corporate management differs from other co-management and even self-management arrangements in that ‘ownership’ of the fishery is devolved to a company in which fishers and government are shareholders. The company manages the fishery as well as coordinates marketing to ensure that the best prices are received and that the catch taken meets the demands of the market. Coordinated harvesting will also result in increased profits, which are returned to fishers in the form of dividends. Corporate management offers many of the potential benefits of an individual quota system without formally implementing such a system. A corporate management model offers an advantage over a self-management model in that it can coordinate both marketing and management to take advantage of this unique geographical advantage. For such a system to be successful, the fishery needs to be relatively small and self- contained. Small in this sense is in terms of number of operators. The Moreton Bay prawn fishery satisfies these key conditions for a successful self-management and potentially corporate management system. The fishery is small both in terms of number of participants and geography. Unlike other fisheries that have progressed down the self-management route, the key market for the product from the Moreton Bay fishery is right at its doorstep. Corporate management also presents a number of challenges. First, it will require changes in the way fishers operate. In particular, the decision on when to fish and what to catch will be taken away from the individual and decided by the collective. Problems will develop if individuals do not join the corporation but continue to fish and market their own product separately. While this may seem an attractive option to fishers who believe they can do better independently, this is likely to be just a short- term advantage with an overall long-run cost to themselves as well as the rest of the industry. There are also a number of other areas that need further consideration, particularly in relation to the allocation of shares, including who should be allocated shares (e.g. just boat owners or also some employed skippers). Similarly, how harvesting activity is to be allocated by the corporation to the fishers. These are largely issues that cannot be answered without substantial consultation with those likely to be affected, and these groups cannot give these issues serious consideration until the point at which they are likely to become a reality. Given the current structure and complexity of the fishery, it is unlikely that such a management structure will be feasible in the short term. However, the fishery is a prime candidate for such a model, and development of such a management structure in the future should be considered as an option for the longer term.