Accuracy of polls in Portugal

This study has a vast analysis, studying almost all the pre-electoral polls published or issued in Portugal in the month previous to each of the elections, since 1991 until the last one that took place in February 2005. The accuracy measures I used were adapted from the study carried out by Frederick Mosteller in the report to the Committee on Analysis of Pre-election Polls, regarding the USA elections of 1948.

Referenda outcomes and the influence of polls: A social network feedback process

This paper proposes a model to explain the differences between outcomes of referenda and the voting trends suggested by polls. Two main effects are at stake. First, the evolution of the voters' attitudes is conditional on the public information made available to them. Second, the predisposition toward abstention among individuals within each voting group may be different. Our model describes how these two aspects of decision making may interact, showing how publicly available information may amplify the distinct tendency toward abstention between both groups and thus affect the outcome of the referendum.

Exit strategies of Pharmaceutical multinational companies from Portugal and the successful implementation of new Portuguese companies

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Going twice to the polls?: Optimality of two-stage voting procedures

A Masters Thesis, presented as part of the requirements for the award of a Research Masters Degree in Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Firm Size and Short-Term Dynamics in Aggregate Entry and Exit

Much of the research on industry dynamics focuses on the interdependence between the sectorial rates of entry and exit. This paper argues that the size of firms and the reaction-adjustment period are important conditions missed in this literature. I illustrate the effects of this omission using data from the Spanish manufacturing industries between 1994 and 2001. Estimates from systems of equations models provide evidence of a conical revolving door phenomenon and of partial adjustments in the replacement-displacement of large firms. KEYWORDS: aggregation, industry dynamics, panel data, symmetry, simultaneity. JEL CLASSIFICATION: C33, C52, L60, L11

Voting by committees with exit

We study the problem of a society choosing a subset of new members from a finite set of candidates (as in Barberà, Sonnenschein, and Zhou, 1991). However, we explicitly consider the possibility that initial members of the society (founders) may want to leave it if they do not like the resulting new society. We show that, if founders have separable (or additive) preferences, the unique strategy-proof and stable social choice function satisfying voters' sovereignty (on the set of candidates) is the one where candidates are chosen unanimously and no founder leaves the society.

How Effective are Unemployment Benefit Sanctions? Looking Beyond Unemployment Exit

This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of the effects of benefit sanctions on post-unemployment outcomes such as post-unemployment employment stability and earnings. We use rich register data which allow us to distinguish between a warning that a benefit reduction may take place in the near future and the actual withdrawal of unemployment benefits. Adopting a multivariate mixed proportional hazard approach to address selectivity, we find that warnings do not affect subsequent employment stability but do reduce post-unemployment earnings. Actual benefit reductions lower the quality of post-unemployment jobs both in terms of job duration as well as in terms of earnings. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Recruitment, retention and exit from union membership. An analysis of member flows in Swiss union locals

This article enquires into the causes of union growth and decline by analysing flows in and out of membership at the level of 70 Swiss union locals over 2006-2008. Gross flows in union membership are much larger than the resulting net changes: annual membership turnover of 10 per cent is a surprisingly constant feature across unions. Net changes in membership are primarily determined by inflows: successful and languishing union locals differ in their entry rates, whereas exit rates are similar. Variance in union locals' entry rates is not usefully explained by the labour market context, but by differences in union strategy.

GLUT2 surface expression and intracellular transport via the constitutive pathway in pancreatic beta cells and insulinoma: evidence for a block in trans-Golgi network exit by brefeldin A.

The biosynthesis, intracellular transport, and surface expression of the beta cell glucose transporter GLUT2 was investigated in isolated islets and insulinoma cells. Using a trypsin sensitivity assay to measure cell surface expression, we determined that: (a) greater than 95% of GLUT2 was expressed on the plasma membrane; (b) GLUT2 did not recycle in intracellular vesicles; and (c) after trypsin treatment, reexpression of the intact transporter occurred with a t1/2 of approximately 7 h. Kinetics of intracellular transport of GLUT2 was investigated in pulse-labeling experiments combined with glycosidase treatment and the trypsin sensitivity assay. We determined that transport from the endoplasmic reticulum to the trans-Golgi network (TGN) occurred with a t1/2 of 15 min and that transport from the TGN to the plasma membrane required a similar half-time. When added at the start of a pulse-labeling experiment, brefeldin A prevented exit of GLUT2 from the endoplasmic reticulum. When the transporter was first accumulated in the TGN during a 15-min period of chase, but not following a low temperature (22 degrees C) incubation, addition of brefeldin A (BFA) prevented subsequent surface expression of the transporter. This indicated that brefeldin A prevented GLUT2 exit from the TGN by acting at a site proximal to the 22 degrees C block. Together, these data demonstrate that GLUT2 surface expression in beta cells is via the constitutive pathway, that transport can be blocked by BFA at two distinct steps and that once on the surface, GLUT2 does not recycle in intracellular vesicles.