Increasing scepticism toward potential liars: effects of existential threat on veracity judgments and the moderating role of honesty norm activation

With the present research, we investigated effects of existential threat on veracity judgments. According to several meta-analyses, people judge potentially deceptive messages of other people as true rather than as false (so-called truth bias). This judgmental bias has been shown to depend on how people weigh the error of judging a true message as a lie (error 1) and the error of judging a lie as a true message (error 2). The weight of these errors has been further shown to be affected by situational variables. Given that research on terror management theory has found evidence that mortality salience (MS) increases the sensitivity toward the compliance of cultural norms, especially when they are of focal attention, we assumed that when the honesty norm is activated, MS affects judgmental error weighing and, consequently, judgmental biases. Specifically, activating the norm of honesty should decrease the weight of error 1 (the error of judging a true message as a lie) and increase the weight of error 2 (the error of judging a lie as a true message) when mortality is salient. In a first study, we found initial evidence for this assumption. Furthermore, the change in error weighing should reduce the truth bias, automatically resulting in better detection accuracy of actual lies and worse accuracy of actual true statements. In two further studies, we manipulated MS and honesty norm activation before participants judged several videos containing actual truths or lies. Results revealed evidence for our prediction. Moreover, in Study 3, the truth bias was increased after MS when group solidarity was previously emphasized.

La cooperación militar entre China y Rusia y su incidencia en la seguridad de Asia Central durante el periodo 2001-2008

Durante los últimos diez años, la cooperación militar entre China y Rusia ha buscado proteger los intereses nacionales de ambos Estados, los cuales se encuentran estrechamente relacionados con las dinámicas en materia de seguridad de Asia Central.

Análisis del acuerdo energético "Petrocaribe", como una estrategia que busca fortalecer la percepción de seguridad de Venezuela frente a Estados Unidos, durante el periodo 2005 - 2009

Desde la llegada de Hugo Chávez al poder, el gobierno venezolano ha emitido una serie de declaraciones oficiales donde se establece que Venezuela está en peligro de una posible agresión por parte de Estados Unidos; de esta manera el gobierno venezolano se ha enfocado en emplear estrategias que generalmente usan el petróleo como herramienta política para responder a dichas amenazas. Con lo dicho anteriormente y teniendo en cuenta la importancia del tema energético en el mundo, esta investigación busca analizar el acuerdo Petrocaribe como una estrategia que mas allá de su carácter económico y social busca fortalecer la percepción de seguridad de Venezuela frente a Estados Unidos.

Transformaciones discursivas en el proceso de securitización del narcotráfico. Un análisis de los actos discursivos oficiales de Colombia y Estados Unidos en la Guerra contra las drogas 1986 - 1990

El tema de las drogas suscita un debate entre quienes defienden la prohibición y la represión, y aquellos que defienden alternativas como la legalización y/o regulación y otras más moderadas como la descriminalización y la despenalización. Aunque ambas posturas muestran datos empíricos que las soportan, desde el ámbito discursivo la visión represiva se ha posicionado como la más aceptada en el continente americano, más específicamente, en Latinoamérica. El presente trabajo, hace un estudio de caso del proceso de securitización del narcotráfico entre los presidentes de Estados Unidos y Colombia durante el período 1986-1990. A lo largo del texto, se analizan discursos oficiales de los presidentes de ambos Estados, resaltando las estrategias retóricas y sus transformaciones que legitimaron acciones represivas de tipo político-militar contra las drogas. Al final se apunta a reivindicar el discurso como un instrumento para reproducir creencias sobre fenómenos, en este caso, la creencia de que las drogas son una amenaza existencial a la seguridad política y militar para los Estados.

Análisis del Espacio Schengen en materia de seguridad como base para la implementación del Protocolo sobre la Facilitación del Movimiento de Personas de la Comunidad para el Desarrollo de África Austral (SADC)

El fin de la Guerra Fría supuso no sólo el triunfo del capitalismo y de la democracia liberal, sino un cambio significativo en el Sistema Internacional; siendo menos centralizado y más regionalizado, como consecuencia de la proximidad y relaciones de interdependencia entre sus actores (no sólo Estados) y permitiendo la formación de Complejos Regionales de Seguridad (CRS). Los CRS son una forma efectiva de relacionarse y aproximarse a la arena internacional pues a través de sus procesos de securitización y desecuritización consiguen lograr objetivos específicos. Partiendo de ello, tanto la Unión Europea (UE) como la Comunidad para el Desarrollo de África Austral (SADC) iniciaron varios procesos de securitización relacionados con la integración regional; siendo un ejemplo de ello la eliminación de los controles en sus fronteras interiores o libre circulación de personas; pues consideraron que de no hacerse realidad, ello generaría amenazas políticas (su influencia y capacidad de actuación estaban amenazadas), económicas (en cuanto a su competitividad y niveles básicos de bienestar) y societales (en cuanto a la identidad de la comunidad como indispensable para la integración) que pondrían en riesgo la existencia misma de sus CRS. En esta medida, la UE creó el Espacio Schengen, que fue producto de un proceso de securitización desde inicios de la década de los 80 hasta mediados de la década de los 90; y la SADC se encuentra inmersa en tal proceso de securitización desde 1992 hasta la actualidad y espera la ratificación del Protocolo para la Facilitación del Movimiento de personas como primer paso para lograr la eliminación de controles en sus fronteras interiores. Si bien tanto la UE como la SADC consideraron que de no permitir la libre circulación de personas, su integración y por lo tanto, sus CRS estaban en riesgo; la SADC no lo ha logrado. Ello hace indispensable hacer un análisis más profundo de sus procesos de securitización para así encontrar sus falencias con respecto al éxito de la UE. El análisis está basado en la Teoría de los Complejos de Seguridad de Barry Buzan, plasmada en la obra Security a New Framework for Analysis (1998) de Barry Buzan, Ole Waever y Jaap de Wilde y será dividido en cada una de las etapas del proceso de securitización: la identificación de una amenaza existencial a un objeto referente a través de un acto discursivo, la aceptación de una amenaza por parte de una audiencia relevante y las acciones de emergencia para hacer frente a las amenazas existenciales; reconociendo las diferencias y similitudes de un proceso de securitización exitoso frente a otro que aún no lo ha sido.

La situación de los refugiados palestinos en el Líbano a partir del Acuerdo de Taif en la década de los 90.

El interés de esta monografía es analizar la situación en la que viven los refugiados palestinos en el Líbano a partir de las políticas impuestas por el gobierno desde la década de los 90. Se analiza y explica cómo un Estado con el fin de defender su seguridad nacional se convierte en una fuente de amenazas para la seguridad humana de ciertos individuos. A través de la perspectiva de Barry Buzan se busca explicar el proceso de securitización por medio del cual los refugiados palestinos son vistos como una amenaza existencial para la seguridad nacional libanesa.

Securitização e política de exceção: o excepcionalismo internacionalista norte-americano na segunda Guerra do Iraque

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Social Policy Facing the Problems of Youth Employment

Rumiana Stoilova (Bulgaria). Social Policy Facing the Problems of Youth Employment. Ms. Stoilova is a researcher in the Institute of Sociology in Sofia and worked on this project from October 1996 to September 1998. This project involved collecting both statistical and empirical data on the state of youth employment in Bulgaria, which was then compared with similar data from other European countries. One significant aspect was the parallel investigation of employment and unemployment, which took as a premise the continuity of professional experience where unemployment is just a temporary condition caused by external and internal factors. These need to be studied and changed on a systematic basis so as to create a more favourable market situation and to improve individuals' resources for improving their market opportunities. A second important aspect of the project was an analysis of the various entities active on the labour market, including government and private institutions, associations of unemployed persons, of employers or of trade unions, all with their specific legal powers and interests, and of the problems in communication between these. The major trends in youth unemployment during the period studied include a high proportion of the registered unemployed who are not eligible for social assistance, a lengthening of the average period of unemployment, an increase in the percentage of people who are unemployed for the first time and an increasing percentage of these who are not eligible for assistance, particularly among newly registered young people. At the same time the percentage of those for who work has been found is rising and during the last three years an increasing number of the unemployed have started some independent economic activity. Regional differences are also considerable and in the case of the Haskovo region represent a danger of losing the youngest generation, with resulting negative demographic effects. One major weakness of the existing institutional structure is the large scale of the black labour market, with clear negative implications for the young people drawn into it. The role of non-governmental organisations in providing support and information for the unemployed is growing and the government has recently introduced special preferences for organisations offering jobs to unemployed persons. Social policy in the labour market has however been largely restricted to passive measures, mostly because of the risk that poverty poses to people continuously excluded from the labour market. Among the active measures taken, well over half are concerned with providing jobs for the unemployed and there are very limited programmes for providing or improving qualifications. The nature of youth employment in Bulgaria can be seen in the influence of sustained structures (generation) and institutions (family and school). Ms. Stoilova studied the situation of the modern generation through a series of profiles, mostly those of continuously unemployed and self-employed persons, but also distinguishing between students and the unemployed, and between high school and university students. The different categories of young people were studied in separate mini-studies and the survey was carried out in five town in order to gather objective and subjective information on the state of the labour market in the different regions. She conducted interviews with several hundred young people covering questions of family background, career plans, attitudes to the labour situation and government measures to deal with it, and such questions as independence, mobility, attitude to work, etc. The interviews with young people unemployed for a long period of time show the risk involved in starting work and its link with dynamics of economic development. Their approval of structural reforms, of the financial restrictions connected with the introduction of a currency board and the inevitability of unemployment was largely declarative. The findings indicate that the continuously unemployed need practical knowledge and skills to "translate" the macroeconomic realities in concrete alternatives of individual work and initiative. The unemployed experience their exclusion from the labour market not only as a professional problem but also as an existential threat, of poverty, forced mobility and dependence on their parents' generation. The exclusion from the market of goods and services means more than just exercising restraint in their consumption, as it places restrictions on their personal development. Ms. Stoilova suggests that more efficient ways of providing financial aid and mobilisation are needed to counteract the social disintegration and marginalisation of the continuously unemployed. In measuring the speed of reform, university students took both employment opportunities and the implementation of the meritocratic principle in employment into account. When offered a hypothetical choice between a well-paid job and work in one's own profession, 62% would prefer opt for the well-paid job and for working for a company that offered career opportunities rather than employment in a family or own company. While most see the information gained during their studies as useful and interesting, relatively few see their education as competitive on a wider level and many were pessimistic about employment opportunities based on their qualifications. Very similar attitudes were found among high school students, with differences being due rather to family and personal situations. The unemployed, on the other hand, placed greater emphasis on possibilities of gaining or improving qualifications on a job and for the opportunities it would offer for personal contacts. High school students tend to attribute more significance to opportunities for personal accomplishment. A significant difference that five times fewer high school students were willing to work for state-owned companies, and many fewer expected to find permanent employment or to find a job in the area where they lived, Within the family situation, actual support for children seems to be higher than the feelings of confidence expressed in interviews. The attitudes of the families towards past experience seems to be linked with their ability to cope with the difficulties of the present, with those families which show an optimistic and active attitude towards the future having a greater respect for parents experience and tolerance in communication between parents and children.

[Review of] Ivo Mijnssen, The Quest for an Ideal Youth in Putin’s Russia I. Back to Our Future! History, Modernity and Patriotism According to Nashi, 2005–2012. Soviet and Post-Soviet Politics and Society, Stuttgart: Ibidem Verlag, 2012, 202pp., e 34.90 p/b

THE YOUTH MOVEMENT NASHI (OURS) WAS FOUNDED IN THE SPRING of 2005 against the backdrop of Ukraine’s ‘Orange Revolution’. Its aim was to stabilise Russia’s political system and take back the streets from opposition demonstrators. Personally loyal to Putin and taking its ideological orientation from Surkov’s concept of ‘sovereign democracy’, Nashi has sought to turn the tide on ‘defeatism’ and develop Russian youth into a patriotic new elite that ‘believes in the future of Russia’ (p. 15). Combining a wealth of empirical detail and the application of insights from discourse theory, Ivo Mijnssen analyses the organisation’s development between 2005 and 2012. His analysis focuses on three key moments—the organisation’s foundation, the apogee of its mobilisation around the Bronze Soldier dispute with Estonia, and the 2010 Seliger youth camp—to help understand Nashi’s organisation, purpose and ideational outlook as well as the limitations and challenges it faces. As such,the book is insightful both for those with an interest in post-Soviet Russian youth culture, and for scholars seeking a rounded understanding of the Kremlin’s initiatives to return a sense of identity and purpose to Russian national life.The first chapter, ‘Background and Context’, outlines the conceptual toolkit provided by Ernesto Laclau and Chantal Mouffe to help make sense of developments on the terrain of identity politics. In their terms, since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has experienced acute dislocation of its identity. With the tangible loss of great power status, Russian realities have become unfixed from a discourse enabling national life to be constructed, albeit inherently contingently, as meaningful. The lack of a Gramscian hegemonic discourse to provide a unifying national idea was securitised as an existential threat demanding special measures. Accordingly, the identification of those who are ‘notUs’ has been a recurrent theme of Nashi’s discourse and activity. With the victory in World War II held up as a foundational moment, a constitutive other is found in the notion of ‘unusual fascists’. This notion includes not just neo-Nazis, but reflects a chain of equivalence that expands to include a range of perceived enemies of Putin’s consolidation project such as oligarchs and pro-Western liberals.The empirical background is provided by the second chapter, ‘Russia’s Youth, the Orange Revolution, and Nashi’, which traces the emergence of Nashi amid the climate of political instability of 2004 and 2005. A particularly note-worthy aspect of Mijnssen’s work is the inclusion of citations from his interviews with Nashicommissars; the youth movement’s cadres. Although relatively few in number, such insider conversations provide insight into the ethos of Nashi’s organisation and the outlook of those who have pledged their involvement. Besides the discussion of Nashi’s manifesto, the reader thus gains insight into the motivations of some participants and behind-the-scenes details of Nashi’s activities in response to the perceived threat of anti-government protests. The third chapter, ‘Nashi’s Bronze Soldier’, charts Nashi’s role in elevating the removal of a World War II monument from downtown Tallinn into an international dispute over the interpretation of history. The events subsequent to this securitisation of memory are charted in detail, concluding that Nashi’s activities were ultimately unsuccessful as their demands received little official support.The fourth chapter, ‘Seliger: The Foundry of Modernisation’, presents a distinctive feature of Mijnssen’s study, namely his ethnographic account as a participant observer in the Youth International Forum at Seliger. In the early years of the camp (2005–2007), Russian participants received extensive training, including master classes in ‘methods of forestalling mass unrest’ (p. 131), and the camp served to foster a sense of group identity and purpose among activists. After 2009 the event was no longer officially run as a Nashi camp, and its role became that of a forum for the exchange of ideas about innovation, although camp spirit remained a central feature. In 2010 the camp welcomed international attendees for the first time. As one of about 700 international participants in that year the author provides a fascinating account based on fieldwork diaries.Despite the polemical nature of the topic, Mijnssen’s analysis remains even-handed, exemplified in his balanced assessment of the Seliger experience. While he details the frustrations and disappointments of the international participants with regard to the unaccustomed strict camp discipline, organisational and communication failures, and the controlled format of many discussions,he does not neglect to note the camp’s successes in generating a gratifying collective dynamic between the participants, even among the international attendees who spent only a week there.In addition to the useful bibliography, the book is back-ended by two appendices, which provide the reader with important Russian-language primary source materials. The first is Nashi’s ‘Unusual Fascism’ (Neobyknovennyi fashizm) brochure, and the second is the booklet entitled ‘Some Uncomfortable Questions to the Russian Authorities’ (Neskol’ko neudobnykh voprosov rossiiskoivlasti) which was provided to the Seliger 2010 instructors to guide them in responding to probing questions from foreign participants. Given that these are not readily publicly available even now, they constitute a useful resource from the historical perspective.

The United States Congress and Venezuela's Hugo Chávez

The Soviet Union's dissolution in December 1991 marks the end of the Cold War and the elimination of the United States' main rival for global political-economic leadership. For decades U.S. foreign policymakers had formulated policies aimed at containing the spread of Soviet communism and Moscow's interventionist policies in the Americas. They now assumed that Latin American leftist revolutionary upheavals could also be committed to history. This study explores how Congress takes an active role in U.S. foreign policymaking when dealing with revolutionary changes in Latin America. This study finds that despite Chávez's vitriolic statements and U.S. economic vulnerability due to its dependence on foreign oil sources, Congress today sees Chávez as a nuisance and not a threat to U.S. vital interests. Devoid of an extra-hemispheric, anti-American patron intent on challenging the United States for regional leadership, Chávez is seen by Congress largely as a threat to the stability of Venezuela's institutions and political-economic stability. Today both the U.S. executive and the legislative branches largely see Bolivarianism a distraction and not an existential threat. The research is based on an examination of Bolivarian Venezuela compared to revolutionary upheaval and governance in Nicaragua over the course of the twentieth century. This project is largely descriptive, qualitative in approach, but quantitative data are used when appropriate. To analyze both the U.S. executive and legislative branches' reaction to revolutionary change, Cole Blasier's theoretical propositions as developed in the Hovering Giant: U.S. Responses to Revolutionary Change in Latin America 1910-1985 are utilized. The present study highlights the fact that Blasier's propositions remain a relevant means for analyzing U.S. foreign policymaking.

History and evolutionary trajectory of the Iranian nuclear program

What actors and processes at what levels of analysis and through what mechanisms have pushed Iran's nuclear program (INP) towards being designated as a proliferation threat (securitization)? What actors and processes at what levels of analysis and through what mechanisms have pushed Iran's nuclear program away from being designated as an existential threat (de-securitization)? What has been the overall balance of power and interaction dynamics of these opposing forces over the last half-century and what is their most likely future trajectory? ^ Iran's nuclear story can be told as the unfolding of constant interaction between state and non-state forces of "nuclear securitization" and "nuclear de-securitization." Tracking the crisscrossing interaction between these different securitizing and de-securitizing actors in a historical context constitutes the central task of this project. ^ A careful tracing of "security events" on different analytical levels reveals the broad contours of the evolutionary trajectory of INP and its possible future path(s). Out of this theoretically conscious historical narrative, one can make informed observations about the overall thrust of INP along the securitization - de-securitization continuum. ^ The main contributions of this work are three fold: First, it brings a fresh theoretical perspective on Iran's proliferation behavior by utilizing the "securitization" theory tracing the initial indications of the threat designation of INP all the way back to the mid 1970s. Second, it gives a solid and thematically grounded historical texture to INP by providing an intimate engagement with the persons, processes, and events of Tehran's nuclear pursuit over half a century. Third, it demonstrates how INP has interacted with and even at times transformed the NPT as the keystone of the non-proliferation regime, and how it has affected and injected urgency to the international discourse on nuclear proliferation specifically in the Middle East.^

Latin America and the Caribbean in 2011 and Beyond: A conversation among Latin America and Caribbean Specialists.

For the first time in more than fifty years, the domestic and external conflicts in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are not primarily ideological in nature. Democracy continues to thrive and its promise still inspires hope. In contrast, the illegal production, consumption, and trading of drugs – and its links to criminal gangs and organizations – represent major challenges to the region, undermining several States’ already weak capacity to govern. While LAC macroeconomic stability has remained resilient, illegal economies fill the region, often offering what some States have not historically been able to provide – elements of human security, opportunities for social mobility, and basic survival. Areas controlled by drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) are now found in Central America, Mexico, and the favelas of Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, reflecting their competition for land routes and production areas. Cartels such as La Familia, Los Zetas, and Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC-Brazil), among others, operate like trade and financial enterprises that manage millions of dollars and resources, demonstrating significant business skills in adapting to changing circumstances. They are also merciless in their application of violence to preserve their lucrative enterprises. The El Salvador-Guatemala-Honduras triangle in Central America is now the most violent region in the world, surpassing regions in Africa that have been torn by civil strife for years. In Brazil’s favelas and Guatemala’s Petén region, the military is leaving the barracks again; not to rule, however, but to supplement and even replace the law enforcement capacity of weak and discredited police forces. This will challenge the military to apply lessons learned during the course of their experience in government, or from the civil wars that plagued the region for nearly 50 years during the Cold War. Will they be able to conduct themselves according to the professional ethics that have been inculcated over the past 20 years without incurring violations of human rights? Belief in their potential to do good is high according to many polls as the Armed Forces still enjoy a favorable perception in most societies, despite frequent involvement in corruption. Calling them to fight DTOs, however, may bring them too close to the illegal activities they are being asked to resist, or even rekindle the view that only a “strong hand” can resolve national troubles. The challenge of governance is occurring as contrasts within the region are becoming sharper. There is an increasing gap between nations positioned to surpass their “developing nation” status and those that are practically imploding as the judicial, political and enforcement institutions fall further into the quagmire of illicit activities. Several South American nations are advancing their political and economic development. Brazil in particular has realized macro-economic stability, made impressive gains in poverty reduction, and is on track to potentially become a significant oil producer. It is also an increasingly influential power, much closer to the heralded “emerging power” category that it aspired to for most of the 20th century. In contrast, several Central American States have become so structurally deficient, and have garnered such limited legitimacy, that their countries have devolved into patches of State controlled and non-State-controlled territory, becoming increasingly vulnerable to DTO entrenchment. In the Caribbean, the drug and human trafficking business also thrives. Small and larger countries are experiencing the growing impact of illicit economies and accompanying crime and violence. Among these, Guyana and Suriname face greater uncertainty, as they juggle both their internal affairs and their relations with Brazil and Venezuela. Cuba also faces new challenges as it continues focusing on internal rather than external affairs and attempts to ensure a stable leadership succession while simultaneously trying to reform its economy. Loosening the regime’s tight grip on the economy while continuing to curtail citizen’s civil rights will test the leadership’s ability to manage change and prevent a potential socio-economic crisis from turning into an existential threat. Cuba’s past ideological zest is now in the hands of Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez, who continues his attempts to bring the region together under Venezuelan leadership ideologically based on a “Bolivarian” anti-U.S. banner, without much success. The environment and natural disasters will merit more attention in the coming years. Natural events will produce increasing scales of destruction as the States in the region fail to maintain and expand existing infrastructure to withstand such calamities and respond to their effects. Prospects for earthquakes, tsunamis, and hurricanes are high, particularly in the Caribbean. In addition, there are growing rates of deforestation in nearly every country, along with a potential increase in cross-sector competition for resources. The losers might be small farmers, due to their inability to produce quantities commensurate to larger conglomerates. Regulations that could mitigate these types of situations are lacking or openly violated with near impunity. Indigenous and other vulnerable populations, including African descendants, in several Andean countries, are particularly affected by the increasing extraction of natural resources taking place amongst their terrain. This has led to protests against extraction activities that negatively affect their livelihoods, and in the process, these historically underprivileged groups have transitioned from agenda-based organization to one that is bringing its claims and grievances to the national political agenda, becoming more politically engaged. Symptomatic of these social issues is the region’s chronically poor quality of education that has consistently failed to reduce inequality and prepare new generations for jobs in the competitive global economy, particularly the more vulnerable populations. Simultaneously, the educational deficit is also exacerbated by the erosion of access to information and freedom of the press. The international panorama is also in flux. New security entities are challenging the old establishment. The Union of South American Nations, The South American Defense Council, the socialist Bolivarian Alliance, and other entities seem to be defying the Organization of American States and its own defense mechanisms, and excluding the U.S. And the U.S.’s attention to areas in conflict, namely Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan – rather than to the more stable Latin America and Caribbean – has left ample room for other actors to elbow in. China is now the top trading partner for Brazil. Russian and Iran are also finding new partnerships in the region, yet their links appear more politically inclined than those of China. Finally, the aforementioned increasing commercial ties by LAC States with China have accelerated a return to the preponderance of commodities as sources of income for their economies. The increased extraction of raw material for export will produce greater concern over the environmental impact that is created by the exploitation of natural resources. These expanded trade opportunities may prove counterproductive economically for countries in the region, particularly for Brazil and Chile, two countries whose economic policies have long sought diversification from dependence on commodities to the development of service and technology based industries.

The United States Congress and Venezuela's Hugo Chávez

The Soviet Union's dissolution in December 1991 marks the end of the Cold War and the elimination of the United States' main rival for global political-economic leadership. For decades U.S. foreign policymakers had formulated policies aimed at containing the spread of Soviet communism and Moscow's interventionist policies in the Americas. They now assumed that Latin American leftist revolutionary upheavals could also be committed to history. This study explores how Congress takes an active role in U.S. foreign policymaking when dealing with revolutionary changes in Latin America. This study finds that despite Chavez's vitriolic statements and U.S. economic vulnerability due to its dependence on foreign oil sources, Congress today sees Chavez as a nuisance and not a threat to U.S. vital interests. Devoid of an extra-hemispheric, anti-American patron intent on challenging the United States for regional leadership, Chavez is seen by Congress largely as a threat to the stability of Venezuela's institutions and political-economic stability. Today both the U.S. executive and the legislative branches largely see Bolivarianism a distraction and not an existential threat. The research is based on an examination of Bolivarian Venezuela compared to revolutionary upheaval and governance in Nicaragua over the course of the twentieth century. This project is largely descriptive, qualitative in approach, but quantitative data are used when appropriate. To analyze both the U.S. executive and legislative branches' reaction to revolutionary change, Cole Blasier's theoretical propositions as developed in the Hovering Giant: U.S. Responses to Revolutionary Change in Latin America 1910- 1985 are utilized. The present study highlights the fact that Blasier's propositions remain a relevant means for analyzing U.S. foreign policymaking.

Expanding Role Theory: US Responses to Hizb'allah and Iran

There are many sociopolitical theories to help explain why governments and actors do what they do. Securitization Theory is a process-oriented theory in international relations that focuses on how an actor defines another actor as an “existential threat,” and the resulting responses that can be taken in order to address that threat. While Securitization Theory is an acceptable method to analyze the relationships between actors in the international system, this thesis contends that the proper examination is multi-factorial, focusing on the addition of Role Theory to the analysis. Consideration of Role Theory, which is another international relations theory that explains how an actor’s strategies, relationships, and perceptions by others is based on pre-conceptualized definitions of that actor’s identity, is essential in order to fully explain why an actor might respond to another in a particular way. Certain roles an actor may enact produce a rival relationship with other actors in the system, and it is those rival roles that elicit securitized responses. The possibility of a securitized response lessens when a role or a relationship between roles becomes ambiguous. There are clear points of role rivalry and role ambiguity between Hizb’allah and Iran, which has directly impacted, and continues to impact, how the United States (US) responds to these actors. Because of role ambiguity, the US has still not conceptualized an effective way to deal with Hizb’allah and Iran holistically across all its various areas of operation and in its various enacted roles. It would be overly simplistic to see Hizb’allah and Iran solely through one lens depending on which hemisphere or continent one is observing. The reality is likely more nuanced. Both Role Theory and Securitization theory can help to understand and articulate those nuances. By examining two case studies of Hizb’allah and Iran’s enactment of various roles in both the Middle East and Latin America, the situations where roles cause a securitized response and where the response is less securitized due to role ambiguity will become clear. Using this augmented approach of combining both theories, along with supplementing the manner in which an actor, action, or role is analyzed, will produce better methods for policy-making that will be able to address the more ambiguous activities of Hizb’allah and Iran in these two regions.

La seguridad energética de Estados Unidos a inicios del siglo XXI: ¿securitización o politización del acceso a recursos energéticos?

Tradicionalmente, la consolidación de la seguridad energética en Estados Unidos se ha mostrado como un asunto de seguridad nacional. En especial, la escasez de recursos energéticos ha sido vista como un problema existencial que requiere de medidas de emergencia en el marco de un proceso de securitización. Sin embargo, esta investigación surgiere que el tema ha sido mayoritariamente politizado a inicios del siglo XXI. Quizá este proceso de securitización tan solo fue implícitamente planteado con ocasión de la invasión a Irak en 2003, en la medida en que dicha intervención pudo haberse inspirado por la necesidad de derrocar a un régimen que había impedido el acceso estadounidense a recursos petroleros iraquíes. En este orden de ideas, la investigación analiza las políticas de seguridad energética de los gobiernos de George W. Bush y Barack H. Obama con el propósito de entender el grado en el que estas estuvieron vinculadas a sus respectivas agendas de seguridad nacional.