Excess Entry, Ambiguity Seeking, and Competence: An Experimental Investigation

Excess entry refers to the high failure rate of new entrepreneurial ventures. Economic explanations suggest 'hit and run' entrants and risk-seeking behavior. A psychological explanation is that people (entrepreneurs) are overconfident in their abilities (Camerer & Lovallo, 1999). Characterizing entry decisions as ambiguous gambles, we alternatively suggest following Heath and Tversky (1991) that people seek ambiguity when the source of uncertainty is related to their competence. Overconfidence, as such, plays no role. This hypothesis is confirmed in an experimental study that also documents the phenomenon of reference group neglect. Finally, we emphasize the utility that people gain from engaging in activities that contribute to a sense of competence. This is an important force in economic activity that deserves more explicit attention.

Excess entry, ambiguity seeking and competence: An experimental investigation

Excess entry refers to the high failure rate of new entrepreneurial ventures. Economic explanations suggest 'hit and run' entrants and risk-seeking behavior. A psychological explanation is that people (entrepreneurs) are overconfident in their abilities (Camerer & Lovallo, 1999). Characterizing entry decisions as ambiguous gambles, we alternatively suggest following Heath and Tversky (1991) that people seek ambiguity when the source of uncertainty is related to their competence. Overconfidence, as such, plays no role. This hypothesis is confirmed in an experimental study that also documents the phenomenon of reference group neglect. Finally, we emphasize the utility that people gain from engaging in activities that contribute to a sense of competence. This is an important force in economic activity that deserves more explicit attention.

Inspection Intensity and Market Structure, October 2005

An investigation of financing an inspection policy while allowing the enforcement of a market regulation is described. A simple model shows that the intensity of controls depends on the market structure. Under a given number of firms, the per-firm probability of controls is lower than one, since firms’ incentive to comply with regulation holds under positive profits. In this case, a lump-sum tax is used for limiting distortions coming from financing with a fixed fee. Under free entry, the per-firm probability of controls is equal to one, and only a fixed fee that prevents excess entry is used to finance inspection.

Entrepreneurial success and failure: Confidence and fallible judgement

Excess entry or the high failure rate of market-entry decisions is often attributed tooverconfidence exhibited by entreprene urs. We show analytically that whereas excess entryis an inevitable consequence of imperfect assessments of entrepreneurial skill, it does notimply overconfidence. Judgmental fallibility leads to excess entry even when everyone isunderconfident. Self-selection implies greater confidence (but not necessarilyoverconfidence) among those who start new businesses than those who do not and amongsuccessful entrants than failures. Our results question claims that entrepreneurs areoverconfident and emphasize the need to understand the role of judgmental fallibility inproducing economic outcomes.

When "hope springs eternal": The role of chance in risk taking

In most naturally occurring situations, success depends on both skill and chance. We contrastexperimental market entry decisions where payoffs depend on skill as opposed tocombinations of skill and chance. Our data show differential attitudes toward chance by thosewhose self-assessed skills are low and high. Making chance more important induces greateroptimism for the former who start taking more risk, while the latter maintain a belief that highlevels of skill are sufficient to overcome the vagaries of chance. Finally, although weobserved excess entry (i.e., too many participants entered markets), this could not beattributed to overconfidence.

Does uncertainty cause inertia in decision making? An experimental study of the role of regret aversion and indecisiveness

Previous research has shown that often there is clear inertia in individual decision making---that is, a tendency for decision makers to choose a status quo option. I conduct a laboratory experiment to investigate two potential determinants of inertia in uncertain environments: (i) regret aversion and (ii) ambiguity-driven indecisiveness. I use a between-subjects design with varying conditions to identify the effects of these two mechanisms on choice behavior. In each condition, participants choose between two simple real gambles, one of which is the status quo option. I find that inertia is quite large and that both mechanisms are equally important.

La confianza en las decisiones de presupuesto de capital: la TIR del comportamiento

En el presente artículo se desarrolla una investigación teórica que permite establecer un modelo matemático para cuantificar la influencia de la confianza de los gerentes en el proceso de presupuesto de capital, en particular sobre la Tasa Interna de Retorno. El Modelo permite concluir que el exceso de confianza es un factor que tiende a elevar esta tasa que esperan recibir los inversionistas tras invertir en determinados proyectos, generando así, en ciertas ocasiones, una toma de decisiones al interior de las empresas basada en cifras sesgadas, comprometiendo así los recursos de la misma.

la influencia de la felicidad en las decisiones de inversión de activos de largo plazo para una muestra de siete gerentes financieros en la ciudad de Bogotá en el año 2016.

El presente artículo contribuye con la investigación de las Finanzas Corporativas del Comportamiento, rama de las finanzas corporativas que considera que el individuo que toma decisiones financieras no es completamente racional y que por hecho existen sesgos psicológicos que influyen en sus decisiones. Este documento se enfoca, desde el punto de vista conceptual y también mediante el análisis de un estudio de campo, en la influencia de la felicidad en las decisiones de inversión en activos de largo plazo para un grupo de siete gerentes ubicados en la ciudad de Bogotá en el año 2016. En el documento se abarca el concepto general de las finanzas corporativas del comportamiento, se define la felicidad y se presentan sub-variables determinantes para la felicidad del individuo como lo son: salud, balance vida/trabajo, educación y habilidades, conexiones sociales y medio ambiente. Finalmente se presenta cómo éstas afectan a los gerentes financieros en sus decisiones de acuerdo a la investigación realizada.

Assessing excess profits from different entry regulations

Entry regulations affecting professional services such as pharmacies are common practice in many European countries. We assess the impact of entry regulations on profits estimating a structural model of entry using the information provided by a policy experiment. We use the case of different regional policies governing the opening of new pharmacies in Spain to show that structural models of entry ought to be estimated with data from policy experiments to pin down how entry regulations change payoffs functions of the incumbents. Contrary to the public interest rationales, regulations are not boosting only small town pharmacies payoffs nor increasing all pharmacies payoffs alike. The gains from regulations are very unevenly distributed,suggesting that private interests are shaping the current mix of entry and markup regulations.

Forward induction and the excess capacity puzzle: An experimental investigation.

While the theoretical industrial organization literature has long argued that excess capacity can be used to deter entry into markets, there is little empirical evidence that incumbent firms effectively behave in this way. Bagwell and Ramey (1996) propose a game with a specific sequence of moves and partially-recoverable capacity costs in which forward induction provides a theoretical rationalization for firm behavior in the field. We conduct an experiment with a game inspired by their work. In our data the incumbent tends to keep the market, in contrast to what the forward induction argument of Bagwell and Ramey would suggest. The results indicate that players perceive that the first mover has an advantage without having to pre-commit capacity. In our game, evolution and learning do not drive out this perception. We back these claims with data analysis, a theoretical framework for dynamics, and simulation results.

Forward induction and the excess capacity puzzle: An experimental investigation

While the theoretical industrial organization literature has long arguedthat excess capacity can be used to deter entry into markets, there islittle empirical evidence that incumbent firms effectively behave in thisway. Bagwell and Ramey (1996) propose a game with a specific sequence ofmoves and partially-recoverable capacity costs in which forward inductionprovides a theoretical rationalization for firm behavior in the field. Weconduct an experiment with a game inspired by their work. In our data theincumbent tends to keep the market, in contrast to what the forwardinduction argument of Bagwell and Ramey would suggest. The results indicatethat players perceive that the first mover has an advantage without havingto pre-commit capacity. In our game, evolution and learning do not driveout this perception. We back these claims with data analysis, atheoretical framework for dynamics, and simulation results.

Differential effects of TR ligands on hormone dissociation rates: Evidence for multiple ligand entry/exit pathways

Some nuclear receptor (NR) ligands promote dissociation of radiolabeled bound hormone from the buried ligand binding cavity (LBC) more rapidly than excess unlabeled hormone itself This result was interpreted to mean that challenger ligands bind allosteric sites on the LBD to induce hormone dissociation, and recent findings indicate that ligands bind weakly to multiple sites on the LBD surface. Here we show, that a large fraction of thyroid hormone receptor (TR) ligands promote rapid dissociation (T(1/2) < 2 h) of , radiolabeled T(3) vs. T(3) (T(1/2), approximate to 5-7 h). We cannot discern relationships between this effect and ligand size, activity or affinity for TR beta. One ligand, GC-24, binds the TR LBC and (weakly) to the TR beta-LBD surface that mediates dimer/heterodimer interaction, but we cannot link this interaction to rapid T(3) dissociation. Instead, several lines of evidence suggest that the challenger ligand must interact with the buried LBC to promote rapid T(3) release. Since previous molecular dynamics simulations suggest that TR ligands leave the LBC by several routes, we propose that a subset of challenger ligands binds and stabilizes a partially unfolded intermediate state of TR that arises during T(3) release and that this effect enhances hormone dissociation. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exit from G0 and entry into the cell cycle of cells expressing p21Sdi1 antisense RNA.

p21Sdi1 (also known as Cip1 and Waf1), an inhibitor of DNA synthesis cloned from senescent human fibroblasts, is an inhibitor of G1 cyclin-dependent kinases (Cdks) in vitro and is transcriptionally regulated by wild-type p53. In addition, p21Sdi1 has been found to inhibit DNA replication by direct interaction with proliferating cell nuclear antigen. In this study we analyzed normal human fibroblast cells arrested in G0 and determined that an excess of p21Sdi1 was present after immunodepletion of various cyclins and Cdks, in contrast to mitogen-stimulated cells in early S phase. Expression of antisense p21Sdi1 RNA in G0-arrested cells resulted in induction of DNA synthesis as well as entry into mitosis. These results suggest that p21Sdi1 functions in G0 and early G1 and that decreased expression of the gene is necessary for cell cycle progression.

Infratentorial Gray Matter Atrophy And Excess In Primary Craniocervical Dystonia.

Primary craniocervical dystonia (CCD) is generally attributed to functional abnormalities in the cortico-striato-pallido-thalamocortical loops, but cerebellar pathways have also been implicated in neuroimaging studies. Hence, our purpose was to perform a volumetric evaluation of the infratentorial structures in CCD. We compared 35 DYT1/DYT6 negative patients with CCD and 35 healthy controls. Cerebellar volume was evaluated using manual volumetry (DISPLAY software) and infratentorial volume by voxel based morphometry of gray matter (GM) segments derived from T1 weighted 3 T MRI using the SUIT tool (SPM8/Dartel). We used t-tests to compare infratentorial volumes between groups. Cerebellar volume was (1.14 ± 0.17) × 10(2) cm(3) for controls and (1.13 ± 0.14) × 10(2) cm(3) for patients; p = 0.74. VBM demonstrated GM increase in the left I-IV cerebellar lobules and GM decrease in the left lobules VI and Crus I and in the right lobules VI, Crus I and VIIIb. In a secondary analysis, VBM demonstrated GM increase also in the brainstem, mostly in the pons. While gray matter increase is observed in the anterior lobe of the cerebellum and in the brainstem, the atrophy is concentrated in the posterior lobe of the cerebellum, demonstrating a differential pattern of infratentorial involvement in CCD. This study shows subtle structural abnormalities of the cerebellum and brainstem in primary CCD.

Obesogenic Environment By Excess Of Dietary Fats In Different Phases Of Development Reduces Spermatic Efficiency Of Wistar Rats At Adulthood: Correlations With Metabolic Status.

This study compares the impact of obesogenic environment (OE) in six different periods of development on sperm parameters and the testicular structure of adult rats and their correlations with sex steroid and metabolic scenario. Wistar rats were exposed to OE during gestation (O1), during gestation/lactation (O2), from weaning to adulthood (O3), from lactation to adulthood (O4), from gestation to sexual maturity (O5), and after sexual maturation (O6). OE was induced by a 20% fat diet, and control groups were fed a balanced diet (4% fat). Serum leptin levels and adiposity index indicate that all groups were obese, except for O1. Three progressive levels of impaired metabolic status were observed: O1 presented insulin resistance, O2 were insulin resistant and obese, and groups O3, O4, and O5 were insulin resistant, obese, and diabetic. These three levels of metabolic damage were proportional to the increase of leptin and decreased circulating testosterone. The impairment in the daily sperm production (DSP) paralleled these three levels of metabolic and hormonal damage being marginal in O1, increasing in O2, and being higher in groups O3, O4, O5, and O6. None of the OE periods affected the sperm transit time in the epididymis, and the lower sperm reserves were caused mainly by impaired DSP. In conclusion, OE during sexual maturation markedly reduces the DSP at adulthood in the rat. A severe reduction in the DSP also occurs in OE exposure during gestation/lactation but not in gestation, indicating that breast-feeding is a critical period for spermatogenic impairment under obesogenic conditions.