Forward induction and the excess capacity puzzle: An experimental investigation.

While the theoretical industrial organization literature has long argued that excess capacity can be used to deter entry into markets, there is little empirical evidence that incumbent firms effectively behave in this way. Bagwell and Ramey (1996) propose a game with a specific sequence of moves and partially-recoverable capacity costs in which forward induction provides a theoretical rationalization for firm behavior in the field. We conduct an experiment with a game inspired by their work. In our data the incumbent tends to keep the market, in contrast to what the forward induction argument of Bagwell and Ramey would suggest. The results indicate that players perceive that the first mover has an advantage without having to pre-commit capacity. In our game, evolution and learning do not drive out this perception. We back these claims with data analysis, a theoretical framework for dynamics, and simulation results.

Forward induction and the excess capacity puzzle: An experimental investigation

While the theoretical industrial organization literature has long arguedthat excess capacity can be used to deter entry into markets, there islittle empirical evidence that incumbent firms effectively behave in thisway. Bagwell and Ramey (1996) propose a game with a specific sequence ofmoves and partially-recoverable capacity costs in which forward inductionprovides a theoretical rationalization for firm behavior in the field. Weconduct an experiment with a game inspired by their work. In our data theincumbent tends to keep the market, in contrast to what the forwardinduction argument of Bagwell and Ramey would suggest. The results indicatethat players perceive that the first mover has an advantage without havingto pre-commit capacity. In our game, evolution and learning do not driveout this perception. We back these claims with data analysis, atheoretical framework for dynamics, and simulation results.

Controlling regional monopolies in the natural gas industry: the role of transport capacity

This paper analyzes some optimal fiscal, pricing, and capacity investment policies for controlling regional monopoly power in the natural gas industry. By letting the set of control instruments available to the social planner vary, we provide a characterization of the technological and demand conditions under which “excess” capacity in the transport network arises in response to the loss of the two other control instruments, namely, transfers and pricing. Hence, the analysis yields some insights on an economy’s incentives to invest in infrastructures for the purpose of integrating geographically isolated markets.

Avaliação do impacto do tamanho dos trens e do comprimento das seções de bloqueio na capacidade de um trecho ferroviário de linha dupla

É inegável a importância da infraestrutura de transporte para as empresas, para a economia e para os países no momento atual. Entretanto, a oferta de infraestrutura de transporte deve estar disponível a custos razoáveis e de modo a viabilizar o atendimento desta crescente demanda vista ao redor do mundo, não diferente no Brasil. Sobre tal contexto, desponta-se o segmento ferroviário, o qual proporciona o transporte de elevados volumes a custos relativamente baixos. Para suportar esta condição, é fundamental conhecer os parâmetros presentes em um sistema ferroviário e saber quais são seus impactos na capacidade de transporte, visando direcionar ações com foco na melhoria operacional e na correta alocação de investimentos de capital. Para quantificar estes impactos, buscou-se desenvolver um modelo de simulação capaz de identificar os impactos na capacidade de um trecho ferroviário de linha dupla frente à variação de dois parâmetros: o tamanho dos trens, que poderá sofrer alteração diante da comercialização da capacidade excedente das ferrovias nacional, diretriz esta presente no novo marco regulatório, e o comprimento das seções de bloqueio, diante dos baixos níveis de investimento realizados até o momento pelas concessões ferroviárias em atividade e do grande potencial de novos investimentos que serão destinados ao segmento ferroviário para atender as demandas futuras. Após a definição de vários cenários, realizou-se a análise dos resultados e pode-se identificar que tanto a variação no tamanho dos trens quando no comprimento das seções de bloqueio geram variações na capacidade de transportes em um trecho ferroviário, ficando estes caracterizados como importantes parâmetros que devem fazer parte de qualquer análise de capacidade ou investimentos de um segmento ferroviário

GuestCentric Systems and its internationalization to Brazil

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The Role of supply constraints in multiplier analysis

Multiplier analysis based upon the information contained in Leontief's inverse is undoubtedly part of the core of the input-output methodology and numerous applications an extensions have been developed that exploit its informational content. Nonetheless there are some implicit theoretical assumptions whose implications have perhaps not been fully assessed. This is the case of the 'excess capacity' assumption. Because of this assumption resources are available as needed to adjust production to new equilibrium states. In real world applications, however, new resources are scarce and costly. Supply constraints kick in and hence resource allocation needs to take them into account to really assess the effect of government policies. Using a closed general equilibrium model that incorporates supply constraints, we perform some simple numerical exercises and proceed to derive a 'constrained' multiplier matrix that can be compared with the standard 'unrestricted' multiplier matrix. Results show that the effectiveness of expenditure policies hinges critically on whether or not supply constraints are considered.

Impact of Ownership Structure on the Performance of China’s Feed Mill Sector, April 2005

In the decade of the 1990s, China’s feed sector became increasingly privatized, more feed mills opened, and the scale of operation expanded. Capacity utilization remained low and multi-ministerial supervision was still prevalent, but the feed mill sector showed a positive performance overall, posting a growth rate of 11 percent per year. Profit margin over sales was within allowable rates set by the government of China at 3 to 5 percent. Financial efficiency improved, with a 20 percent quicker turnover of working capital. Average technical efficiency was 0.805, as more efficient feed mills increasingly gained production shares. This study finds evidence that the increasing privatization explains the improved performance of the commercial feed mill sector. The drivers that shaped the feed mill sector in the 1990s have changed with China’s accession to the World Trade Organization. With the new policy regime in place, the study foresees that, assuming an adequate supply of soy meal and an excess capacity in the feed mill sector, it is likely that China will allow corn imports up to the tariff rate quota (TRQ) of 7.2 mmt since the in-quota rate is very low at 1 percent. However, when the TRQ is exceeded, the import duty jumps to a prohibitive out-quota rate of 65 percent. With an import duty for meat of only 10 to 12 percent, China would have a strong incentive to import meat products directly rather than bringing in expensive corn to produce meat domestically. This would be further reinforced if structural transformation in the swine sector would narrow the cost differential between domestic and imported pork.

Finding the Fit Between Engineering Design and Cost Information

This paper analyzes the possibilities of integrating cost information and engineering design. Special emphasis is put on finding the potential of using the activity-based costing (ABC) method. Today, the problem of cost estimation in engineering design is that there are two separate extremes of knowledge. On the one extreme, the engineers model the technical parametres behindcosts in great detail but do not get appropriate cost information to their elegant models. On the other extreme, the accounting professionals are stuck with traditional cost accounting methods driven by the procedures and cycles of financial accounting. Therefore, in many cases, the cost information needs of various decision making groups, for example design engineers, are not served satisfactorily. This paper studies if the activity-based costing (ABC) method could offer a compromise between the two extremes. Recognizing activities and activity chains as well as activity and cost drivers could be specially beneficial for design engineers. Also, recognizing the accurate and reliable product costs of existing products helps when doing variant design. However, ABC is not at its best if the cost system becomes too complicated. This is why a comprehensive ABC-cost information system with detailed cost information for the use of design engineers should be examined critically. ABC is at its best when considering such issues as which activities drive costs, the cost of product complexity, allocating indirect costs on the products, the relationships between processes and costs, and the cost of excess capacity.

Sairaalan kolmen yksikön kapasiteetin käytön kehittäminen

Tässä tutkimuksessa selvitettiin Etelä-Karjalan keskussairaalan sädehoitoyksikön, päiväkirurgisen yksikön sekä synnytysten ja naistentautien yksikön käyttämän kapasiteetin kustannuksia eri käyttöasteilla. Yksiköiden toiminta ja niiden keskeiset resurssit kuvattiin. Tiedot kerättiin käyttäen haastatteluja, käyttöomaisuuskirjanpitoa ja laskentatoimen talousraportointijärjestelmää. Yksiköiden tuloslaskelmien perusteella arvioitiin niiden muuttuvia ja kiinteitä kustannuksia. Kapasiteettimalleja arvioitiin voitavan hyödyntää esimerkiksi toiminnan seurannassa, suunnittelussa ja tavoiteasetannassa. Kapasiteetin määrittely ja kapasiteetin kustannusten laskenta erilaisille kapasiteetin käyttöasteille onnistui kaikissa yksiköissä. Parhaiten kapasiteetin kustannustieto kuvasi sädehoitoa ja heikoiten synnytyksiä. Käyttämätöntä kapasiteettia tunnistettiin sädehoitoyksikössä ja päiväkirurgisessa yksikössä. Toiminta-asteen noston vaikutukset yksikkökustannuksiin laskettiin kaikissa yksiköissä ja niissä yksiköissä, joissa oli käyttämätöntä kapasiteettia, tehtiin lisäksi tarkempia laskelmia ja ehdotuksia toiminnan kehittämiseksi.

Public policy and foreign-based enterprises in Britain prior to the Second World War

This article examines the early evolution of British policy, prior to the Second World War. The British government adopted an ‘open’ policy towards foreign direct investment (FDI), despite periodic fears that some foreign acquisitions of UK firms in key sectors might be detrimental to the national interest, and a few ad hoc attempts to deal with particular instances of this kind. During the 1930s, when the inflow of foreign firms accelerated following Britain's adoption of general tariff protection, the government developed a sophisticated admissions policy, based on an assessment of the likely net benefit of each applicant to the British economy. Its limited regulatory powers were used to maximize the potential of immigrant firms for technology transfer, enhanced competition, industrial diversification, and employment creation (particularly in the depressed regions), while protecting British industries suffering from excess capacity.

When less is better: Insights from the product mix dilemma from the Theory of Constraints perspective

Perhaps due to its origins in a production scheduling software called Optimised Production Technology (OPT), plus the idea of focusing on system constraints, many believe that the Theory of Constraints (TOC) has a vocation for optimal solutions. Those who assess TOC according to this perspective indicate that it guarantees an optimal solution only in certain circumstances. In opposition to this view and founded on a numeric example of a production mix problem, this paper shows, by means of TOC assumptions, why the TOC should not be compared to methods intended to seek optimal or the best solutions, but rather sufficiently good solutions, possible in non-deterministic environments. Moreover, we extend the range of relevant literature on product mix decision by introducing a heuristic based on the uniquely identified work that aims at achieving feasible solutions according to the TOC point of view. The heuristic proposed is tested on 100 production mix problems and the results are compared with the responses obtained with the use of Integer Linear Programming. The results show that the heuristic gives good results on average, but performance falls sharply in some situations. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Comercialização de energia elétrica no Brasil

How companies can sell their surplus production capacity of electric power in Brazil? This work was developed from the question presented and focusing on clarification of procedures to enter the Brazilian electricity market by providing basic guidelines based on resolutions by National Agency of Electric Energy, National System Operator procedures and rules of the Assembly of Electric Energy Commercialization. It features subsidy to companies that fit this profile to evaluate the possibility to sell their surplus electricity. The general aim was to analyze the procedures and the necessary steps to make this sale happen. Was developed through a literature review where an overview of the Brazilian electric sector and a case study of a company that has excess capacity of electricity, but doesn’t make its marketing. Resulted in the expected clarification as well as the incentive for companies through the information presented, the entry in this trade since power is still crucial to the country's economic growth and ensure its availability in quantity demanded is a challenge of the utmost importance for satisfactory results are achieved economic development contributing to the progress of our society

Recipes for Success: Lessons Learned From Successful Hospitality Companies

After a decade of over-expansion, the hotel industry began the '90s with excess capacity and decreased demand. Since 1993, the U.S. hotel industry has experienced a turnaround which continued into 1994- 1995 with good performance by most firms. However; competition will continue to be fierce and many challenges are awaiting hotel companies in a more global environment. This article examines the key elements for achieving success in a challenging hospitality industry environment while focusing on the strategies and techniques employed by some successful hotel companies during difficult times.

Biomarkers of oxidative stress and its association with the urinary reducing capacity in bus maintenance workers.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to particles (PM) induces adverse health effects (cancer, cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases). A key-role in these adverse effects seems to be played by oxidative stress, which is an excess of reactive oxygen species relative to the amount of reducing species (including antioxidants), the first line of defense against reactive oxygen species. The aim of this study was to document the oxidative stress caused by exposure to respirable particles in vivo, and to test whether exposed workers presented changes in their urinary levels for reducing species.METHODS: Bus depot workers (n = 32) exposed to particles and pollutants (respirable PM4, organic and elemental carbon, particulate metal content, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, NOx, O3) were surveyed over two consecutive days. We collected urine samples before and after each shift, and quantified an oxidative stress biomarker (8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine), the reducing capacity and a biomarker of PAH exposure (1-hydroxypyrene). We used a linear mixed model to test for associations between the oxidative stress status of the workers and their particle exposure as well as with their urinary level of reducing species.RESULTS: Workers were exposed to low levels of respirable PM4 (range 25-71 μg/m3). However, urinary levels of 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine increased significantly within each shift and between both days for non-smokers. The between-day increase was significantly correlated (p < 0.001) with the concentrations of organic carbon, NOx, and the particulate copper content. The within-shift increase in 8OHdG was highly correlated to an increase of the urinary reducing capacity (Spearman ρ = 0.59, p < 0.0001).CONCLUSIONS: These findings confirm that exposure to components associated to respirable particulate matter causes a systemic oxidative stress, as measured with the urinary 8OHdG. The strong association observed between urinary 8OHdG with the reducing capacity is suggestive of protective or other mechanisms, including circadian effects. Additional investigations should be performed to understand these observations.

Potential of utilization of rain water excess for irrigation of green roofs in Mato Grosso, Brasil

The aim of this study was to identify the relation between the evapotranspirometer demand and the supply of water from local rainfall, evaluating the possibility of using water excess for irrigation of Green Roofs in the State of Mato Grosso, in Brazil. The study was done using a series of historical data provided by the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET - Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia) which has official climatological stations in 12 cities and regions of the State. The evapotranspiration values were obtained by the Penman-Monteith method and by the Climatic Water Balance (CWB) by the Thornthwaite and Mather method using Available Water Capacity (AWC) of 12mm. With the CWB the excess and deficit were calculated, which were used for the estimative of the volume and area of a reservoir as a function of a collector area of a roof of 100m² and the volume of supplementary water for irrigation. With the obtained results, it was found that in most investigated regions of the State the use of green roofs is not compromised by the water deficiency. On the other hand, the use of a reservoir to accumulate the rain water excess may be impractical, because it requires a considerable area for installation and also because of the high cost of the land.