Validation of and comparison between a semidistributed rainfall-runoff hydrological model (PREVAH) and a spatially distributed snow-evolution model (SnowModel) for snow cover prediction in mountain ecosystems

Snow cover is an important control in mountain environments and a shift of the snow-free period triggered by climate warming can strongly impact ecosystem dynamics. Changing snow patterns can have severe effects on alpine plant distribution and diversity. It thus becomes urgent to provide spatially explicit assessments of snow cover changes that can be incorporated into correlative or empirical species distribution models (SDMs). Here, we provide for the first time a with a lower overestimation comparison of two physically based snow distribution models (PREVAH and SnowModel) to produce snow cover maps (SCMs) at a fine spatial resolution in a mountain landscape in Austria. SCMs have been evaluated with SPOT-HRVIR images and predictions of snow water equivalent from the two models with ground measurements. Finally, SCMs of the two models have been compared under a climate warming scenario for the end of the century. The predictive performances of PREVAH and SnowModel were similar when validated with the SPOT images. However, the tendency to overestimate snow cover was slightly lower with SnowModel during the accumulation period, whereas it was lower with PREVAH during the melting period. The rate of true positives during the melting period was two times higher on average with SnowModel with a lower overestimation of snow water equivalent. Our results allow for recommending the use of SnowModel in SDMs because it better captures persisting snow patches at the end of the snow season, which is important when modelling the response of species to long-lasting snow cover and evaluating whether they might survive under climate change.

A disease evolution model with uncertain parameters

In this study we consider the SIS epidemiological model (susceptible-infected-susceptible) in which the transmission and recuperation rates are considered fuzzy sets. The concepts of possibility measures and fuzzy expectancy value are used to obtain the basic reproduction value for infected groups with different viral charge.

Multitemporal analysis of satellite imagery: implementation of a land evolution model in ALCS (ATSR LAND CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM)

In this report it was designed an innovative satellite-based monitoring approach applied on the Iraqi Marshlands to survey the extent and distribution of marshland re-flooding and assess the development of wetland vegetation cover. The study, conducted in collaboration with MEEO Srl , makes use of images collected from the sensor (A)ATSR onboard ESA ENVISAT Satellite to collect data at multi-temporal scales and an analysis was adopted to observe the evolution of marshland re-flooding. The methodology uses a multi-temporal pixel-based approach based on classification maps produced by the classification tool SOIL MAPPER ®. The catalogue of the classification maps is available as web service through the Service Support Environment Portal (SSE, supported by ESA). The inundation of the Iraqi marshlands, which has been continuous since April 2003, is characterized by a high degree of variability, ad-hoc interventions and uncertainty. Given the security constraints and vastness of the Iraqi marshlands, as well as cost-effectiveness considerations, satellite remote sensing was the only viable tool to observe the changes taking place on a continuous basis. The proposed system (ALCS – AATSR LAND CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM) avoids the direct use of the (A)ATSR images and foresees the application of LULCC evolution models directly to „stock‟ of classified maps. This approach is made possible by the availability of a 13 year classified image database, conceived and implemented in the CARD project (http://earth.esa.int/rtd/Projects/#CARD).The approach here presented evolves toward an innovative, efficient and fast method to exploit the potentiality of multi-temporal LULCC analysis of (A)ATSR images. The two main objectives of this work are both linked to a sort of assessment: the first is to assessing the ability of modeling with the web-application ALCS using image-based AATSR classified with SOIL MAPPER ® and the second is to evaluate the magnitude, the character and the extension of wetland rehabilitation.

Chemical evolution models for spiral disks: the Milky Way, M31, and M33

Context. The distribution of chemical abundances and their variation with time are important tools for understanding the chemical evolution of galaxies. In particular, the study of chemical evolution models can improve our understanding of the basic assumptions made when modelling our Galaxy and other spirals. Aims. We test a standard chemical evolution model for spiral disks in the Local Universe and study the influence of a threshold gas density and different efficiencies in the star formation rate (SFR) law on radial gradients of abundance, gas, and SFR. The model is then applied to specific galaxies. Methods. We adopt a one-infall chemical evolution model where the Galactic disk forms inside-out by means of infall of gas, and we test different thresholds and efficiencies in the SFR. The model is scaled to the disk properties of three Local Group galaxies (the Milky Way, M31 and M33) by varying its dependence on the star formation efficiency and the timescale for the infall of gas onto the disk. Results. Using this simple model, we are able to reproduce most of the observed constraints available in the literature for the studied galaxies. The radial oxygen abundance gradients and their time evolution are studied in detail. The present day abundance gradients are more sensitive to the threshold than to other parameters, while their temporal evolutions are more dependent on the chosen SFR efficiency. A variable efficiency along the galaxy radius can reproduce the present day gas distribution in the disk of spirals with prominent arms. The steepness in the distribution of stellar surface density differs from massive to lower mass disks, owing to the different star formation histories. Conclusions. The most massive disks seem to have evolved faster (i.e., with more efficient star formation) than the less massive ones, thus suggesting a downsizing in star formation for spirals. The threshold and the efficiency of star formation play a very important role in the chemical evolution of spiral disks. For instance, an efficiency varying with radius can be used to regulate the star formation. The oxygen abundance gradient can steepen or flatten in time depending on the choice of this parameter.

Les ciutats turístiques, les noves ciutats. Anàlisi de l'evolució del model turístic en destinacions de litoral madures a partir de l'anàlisi de paràmetres urbanístics

La beca concedida ha anat destinada a desenvolupar la tesi doctoral que duu per nom "Les ciutats turístiques, les noves ciutats. Anàlisi de l'evolució del model turístic en destinacions de litoral madures a partir de l'anàlisi de paràmetres urbanístics". L’àrea d’estudi comprèn els municipis de Cambrils, Salou i La Pineda (Vila-seca) que conformen la Costa Daurada central, destinació madura de litoral mediterrani, que basa el seu desenvolupament d’acord el model turístic de sol i platja. Arribats en aquest punt de finalització de la beca, cal destacar que s’ha complert amb l'objectiu d'analitzar el procés de transformació de les ciutats turístiques, tot establint com el turisme litoral mediterrani s'ha convertit en un factor de creació de ciutat. Així mateix també s'han complert els objectius específics tals com: analitzar l'evolució de les destinacions turístiques consolidades del litoral mediterrani, recopilar informació per a la creació d'índexs i eines que serveixin per l'anàlisi del procés de tranformació de les ciutats turístiques a ciutats tradicionals a partir del tractament dels plans parcials, recopilar i analitzar les polítiques de planificació que han condicionat l'area d'estudi, modelitzar el procés de construcció de l'espai turístic a partir de l'establiment d'unes unitats bàsiques en la descripció i anàlisi territorial i paisatgístic, i crear un SIG per culminar el procés d'anàlisi tot creant una base de dades i la representació dels resultats en cartogradia temàtica. Pel que fa al disseny i l’execució de la metodologia, es poden considerar dos vessants, una vessant més qualitativa i una altra més quantitativa per al tractament de la informació recopilada. Igualment la generació de cartografia específica completa el procés amb la producció de cartografia específica, tal i com es desenvolupa en la present memòria. La tesi parteix del guió que contempla: un prier capítol d'introducció, un segon dedicat al marc teòric, un tercer apartat on s'exposaran les hipòtesis de les quals es parteix, i un quart dedicat a la metodologia. Pren especial importància l'apartat dedicat a l’ànalisi, així com el dedicat a la discussió dels resultats obtinguts, que es desenvoluparà en el sisè apartat. Per últim resta destacar el setè apartat dedicat a les conclusions a les que s'ha arribat.

The evolution of the mass-metallicity relation in SDSS galaxies uncovered by astropaleontology

We have obtained the mass-metallicity (M-Z) relation at different lookback times for the same set of galaxies from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, using the stellar metallicities estimated with our spectral synthesis code STARLIGHT. We have found that this relation steepens and spans a wider range in both mass and metallicity at higher redshifts. We have modelled the time evolution of stellar metallicity with a closed-box chemical evolution model, for galaxies of different types and masses. Our results suggest that the M-Z relation for galaxies with present-day stellar masses down to 10(10) M(circle dot) is mainly driven by the history of star formation and not by inflows or outflows.

Crop Phenology Estimation Using a Multitemporal Model and a Kalman Filtering Strategy

In this letter, a new approach for crop phenology estimation with remote sensing is presented. The proposed methodology is aimed to exploit tools from a dynamical system context. From a temporal sequence of images, a geometrical model is derived, which allows us to translate this temporal domain into the estimation problem. The evolution model in state space is obtained through dimensional reduction by a principal component analysis, defining the state variables, of the observations. Then, estimation is achieved by combining the generated model with actual samples in an optimal way using a Kalman filter. As a proof of concept, an example with results obtained with this approach over rice fields by exploiting stacks of TerraSAR-X dual polarization images is shown.

The 2df SDSS LRG and QSO survey: evolution of the luminosity function of luminous red galaxies to z=0.6

We present new measurements of the luminosity function (LF) of luminous red galaxies (LRGs) from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and the 2dF SDSS LRG and Quasar (2SLAQ) survey. We have carefully quantified, and corrected for, uncertainties in the K and evolutionary corrections, differences in the colour selection methods, and the effects of photometric errors, thus ensuring we are studying the same galaxy population in both surveys. Using a limited subset of 6326 SDSS LRGs (with 0.17 < z < 0.24) and 1725 2SLAQ LRGs (with 0.5 < z < 0.6), for which the matching colour selection is most reliable, we find no evidence for any additional evolution in the LRG LF, over this redshift range, beyond that expected from a simple passive evolution model. This lack of additional evolution is quantified using the comoving luminosity density of SDSS and 2SLAQ LRGs, brighter than M-0.2r - 5 log h(0.7) = - 22.5, which are 2.51 +/- 0.03 x 10(-7) L circle dot Mpc(-3) and 2.44 +/- 0.15 x 10(-7) L circle dot Mpc(-3), respectively (< 10 per cent uncertainty). We compare our LFs to the COMBO-17 data and find excellent agreement over the same redshift range. Together, these surveys show no evidence for additional evolution (beyond passive) in the LF of LRGs brighter than M-0.2r - 5 log h(0.7) = - 21 ( or brighter than similar to L-*).. We test our SDSS and 2SLAQ LFs against a simple 'dry merger' model for the evolution of massive red galaxies and find that at least half of the LRGs at z similar or equal to 0.2 must already have been well assembled (with more than half their stellar mass) by z similar or equal to 0.6. This limit is barely consistent with recent results from semi-analytical models of galaxy evolution.

[O/Fe] ESTIMATES FOR CARBON-ENHANCED METAL-POOR STARS FROM NEAR-INFRARED SPECTROSCOPY

We report on oxygen abundances determined from medium-resolution near-infrared spectroscopy for a sample of 57 carbon-enhanced metal-poor (CEMP) stars selected from the Hamburg/ESO Survey. The majority of our program stars exhibit oxygen-to-iron ratios in the range +0.5 < [O/Fe]< + 2.0. The [O/Fe] values for this sample are statistically compared to available high-resolution estimates for known CEMP stars as well as to high-resolution estimates for a set of carbon-normal metal-poor stars. Carbon, nitrogen, and oxygen abundance patterns for a sub-sample of these stars are compared to yield predictions for very metal-poor asymptotic giant branch (AGB) abundances in the recent literature. We find that the majority of our sample exhibit patterns that are consistent with previously studied CEMP stars having s-process-element enhancements and thus have very likely been polluted by carbon- and oxygen-enhanced material transferred from a metal-poor AGB companion.

Dynamic Imaging in Electrical Impedance Tomography of the Human Chest With Online Transition Matrix Identification

One of the electrical impedance tomography objectives is to estimate the electrical resistivity distribution in a domain based only on electrical potential measurements at its boundary generated by an imposed electrical current distribution into the boundary. One of the methods used in dynamic estimation is the Kalman filter. In biomedical applications, the random walk model is frequently used as evolution model and, under this conditions, poor tracking ability of the extended Kalman filter (EKF) is achieved. An analytically developed evolution model is not feasible at this moment. The paper investigates the identification of the evolution model in parallel to the EKF and updating the evolution model with certain periodicity. The evolution model transition matrix is identified using the history of the estimated resistivity distribution obtained by a sensitivity matrix based algorithm and a Newton-Raphson algorithm. To numerically identify the linear evolution model, the Ibrahim time-domain method is used. The investigation is performed by numerical simulations of a domain with time-varying resistivity and by experimental data collected from the boundary of a human chest during normal breathing. The obtained dynamic resistivity values lie within the expected values for the tissues of a human chest. The EKF results suggest that the tracking ability is significantly improved with this approach.

Evolução tectónica mesozóica da Bacia Lusitaniana

The evolution of the Lusitanian Basin, localized on the western Iberian margin, is closely associated with the first opening phases of the North Atlantic. It persisted from the Late Triassic to the Early Cretaceous, more precisely until the end of the Early Aptian, and its evolution was conditioned by inherited structures from the variscan basement. The part played by the faults that establish its boundaries, as regards the geometric and kinematic evolution and the organization of the sedimentary bodies, is discussed here, as well as with respect to important faults transversal to the Basin. A basin evolution model is proposed consisting of four rifting episodes which show: i) periods of symmetrical (horst and graben organization) and asymmetrical (half graben organization) geometric evolution; ii) diachronous fracturing; iii) rotation of the main extensional direction; iv) rooting in the variscan basement of the main faults of the basin (predominantly thick skinned style). The analysis and regional comparison, particularly with the Algarve Basin, of the time intervals represented by important basin scale hiatuses near to the renovation of the rifting episodes, have led to assume the occurrence of early tectonic inversions (Callovian–Oxfordian and Tithonian–Berriasian). The latter, however, had a subsequent evolution distinct from the first: there is no subsidence renovation, which is discussed here, and it is related to a magmatic event. Although the Lusitanian Basin is located on a rift margin which is considered non-volcanic, the three magmatic cycles as defined by many authors, particularly the second (approx. 130 to 110 My ?), performed a fundamental part in the mobilization of the Hettangian evaporites, resulting in the main diapiric events of the Lusitanian Basin. The manner and time in which the basin definitely ends its evolution (Early Aptian) is discussed here. Comparisons are established with other west Iberian margin basins and with Newfoundland basins. A model of oceanization of this area of the North Atlantic is also presented, consisting of two events separated by approximately 10 My, and of distinct areas separated by the Nazaré fault. The elaboration of this synthesis was based on: - information contained in previously published papers (1990 – 2000); - field-work carried out over the last years, the results of which have not yet been published; - information gathered from the reinterpretation of geological mapping and geophysical (seismic and well logs) elements, and from generic literature concerning the Mesozoic of the west iberian margin.

Evidence for mantle exhumation along the Arabian margin in the Zagros (Kermanshah area, Iran)

The Kermanshah Crush Zone (Zagros, Iran) comprises elements from the Tethys Ocean and the former ocean-continent transition. Serpentinites and gabbros exposed in this area were formerly interpreted as originated from Tethys ocean and other residual Tethys oceanic domains all situated northeast of the Bisotoun platform. However, the structural relationships between these ultramafic units remained unclear. New field work in the Kermanshah-Harsin area led to the description of detachment faults over serpentinised mantle. ``Mid-Cretaceous'' carbonate ``extensional allochthons'' (pre-rift) and pelagic sediments (syn- to post-rift) dated from the Liassic are exposed above these detachments. Such an age mismatch can be explained by a polyphased mantle exhumation in a narrow basin along the Arabian margin with the assumption that no radiolarite nappe has been thrusted over the Bisotoun. Another detachment has been identified further to the NE on Eocene gabbro. So far, this one is considered as an intra-oceanic detachment from the residual Tethys. A first evolution model is proposed from early Jurassic to late Cretaceous obduction along with how this interpretation may be improved by future field work.

Conserved chromosomal clustering of genes governed by chromatin regulators in Drosophila

BACKGROUND: The trithorax group (trxG) and Polycomb group (PcG) proteins are responsible for the maintenance of stable transcriptional patterns of many developmental regulators. They bind to specific regions of DNA and direct the post-translational modifications of histones, playing a role in the dynamics of chromatin structure. RESULTS: We have performed genome-wide expression studies of trx and ash2 mutants in Drosophila melanogaster. Using computational analysis of our microarray data, we have identified 25 clusters of genes potentially regulated by TRX. Most of these clusters consist of genes that encode structural proteins involved in cuticle formation. This organization appears to be a distinctive feature of the regulatory networks of TRX and other chromatin regulators, since we have observed the same arrangement in clusters after experiments performed with ASH2, as well as in experiments performed by others with NURF, dMyc, and ASH1. We have also found many of these clusters to be significantly conserved in D. simulans, D. yakuba, D. pseudoobscura and partially in Anopheles gambiae. CONCLUSION: The analysis of genes governed by chromatin regulators has led to the identification of clusters of functionally related genes conserved in other insect species, suggesting this chromosomal organization is biologically important. Moreover, our results indicate that TRX and other chromatin regulators may act globally on chromatin domains that contain transcriptionally co-regulated genes.

Aggregation of liposomes induced by calcium: A structural and kinetic study

In this work, the calcium-induced aggregation of phosphatidylserine liposomes is probed by means of the analysis of the kinetics of such process as well as the aggregate morphology. This novel characterization of liposome aggregation involves the use of static and dynamic light-scattering techniques to obtain kinetic exponents and fractal dimensions. For salt concentrations larger than 5 mM, a diffusion-limited aggregation regime is observed and the Brownian kernel properly describes the time evolution of the diffusion coefficient. For slow kinetics, a slightly modified multiple contact kernel is required. In any case, a time evolution model based on the numerical resolution of Smoluchowski's equation is proposed in order to establish a theoretical description for the aggregating system. Such a model provides an alternative procedure to determine the dimerization constant, which might supply valuable information about interaction mechanisms between phospholipid vesicles.

A two-phase composite in simple shear: Effective mechanical anisotropy development and localization potential

We present a combined shape and mechanical anisotropy evolution model for a two-phase inclusion-bearing rock subject to large deformation. A single elliptical inclusion embedded in a homogeneous but anisotropic matrix is used to represent a simplified shape evolution enforced on all inclusions. The mechanical anisotropy develops due to the alignment of elongated inclusions. The effective anisotropy is quantified using the differential effective medium (DEM) approach. The model can be run for any deformation path and an arbitrary viscosity ratio between the inclusion and host phase. We focus on the case of simple shear and weak inclusions. The shape evolution of the representative inclusion is largely insensitive to the anisotropy development and to parameter variations in the studied range. An initial hardening stage is observed up to a shear strain of gamma = 1 irrespective of the inclusion fraction. The hardening is followed by a softening stage related to the developing anisotropy and its progressive rotation toward the shear direction. The traction needed to maintain a constant shear rate exhibits a fivefold drop at gamma = 5 in the limiting case of an inviscid inclusion. Numerical simulations show that our analytical model provides a good approximation to the actual evolution of a two-phase inclusion-host composite. However, the inclusions develop complex sigmoidal shapes resulting in the formation of an S-C fabric. We attribute the observed drop in the effective normal viscosity to this structural development. We study the localization potential in a rock column bearing varying fraction of inclusions. In the inviscid inclusion case, a strain jump from gamma = 3 to gamma = 100 is observed for a change of the inclusion fraction from 20% to 33%.