A new online updating framework for constructing monotonicity-preserving fuzzy inference systems

In this paper, a new online updating framework for constructing monotonicity-preserving Fuzzy Inference Systems (FISs) is proposed. The framework encompasses an optimization-based Similarity Reasoning (SR) scheme and a new monotone fuzzy rule relabeling technique. A complete and monotonically-ordered fuzzy rule base is necessary to maintain the monotonicity property of an FIS model. The proposed framework attempts to allow a monotonicity-preserving FIS model to be constructed when the fuzzy rules are incomplete and not monotonically-ordered. An online feature is introduced to allow the FIS model to be updated from time to time. We further investigate three useful measures, i.e., the belief, plausibility, and evidential mass measures, which are inspired from the Dempster- Shafer theory of evidence, to analyze the proposed framework and to give an insight for the inferred outcomes from the FIS model.

Risk assessment of E-Commerce projects using evidential reasoning

The purpose of this study is to develop a decision making system to evaluate the risks in E-Commerce (EC) projects. Competitive software businesses have the critical task of assessing the risk in the software system development life cycle. This can be conducted on the basis of conventional probabilities, but limited appropriate information is available and so a complete set of probabilities is not available. In such problems, where the analysis is highly subjective and related to vague, incomplete, uncertain or inexact information, the Dempster-Shafer (DS) theory of evidence offers a potential advantage. We use a direct way of reasoning in a single step (i.e., extended DS theory) to develop a decision making system to evaluate the risk in EC projects. This consists of five stages 1) establishing knowledge base and setting rule strengths, 2) collecting evidence and data, 3) determining evidence and rule strength to a mass distribution for each rule; i.e., the first half of a single step reasoning process, 4) combining prior mass and different rules; i.e., the second half of the single step reasoning process, 5) finally, evaluating the belief interval for the best support decision of EC project. We test the system by using potential risk factors associated with EC development and the results indicate that the system is promising way of assisting an EC project manager in identifying potential risk factors and the corresponding project risks.

Most Haunted and the Convergence of Traditional Belief and Popular Television

Koven, M. (2007). Most Haunted and the Convergence of Traditional Belief and Popular Television. Folklore. 118(2), pp.183-202. RAE2008

Analyzing the degree of conflict among belief functions.

The study of alternative combination rules in DS theory when evidence is in conflict has emerged again recently as an interesting topic, especially in data/information fusion applications. These studies have mainly focused on investigating which alternative would be appropriate for which conflicting situation, under the assumption that a conflict is identified. The issue of detection (or identification) of conflict among evidence has been ignored. In this paper, we formally define when two basic belief assignments are in conflict. This definition deploys quantitative measures of both the mass of the combined belief assigned to the emptyset before normalization and the distance between betting commitments of beliefs.We argue that only when both measures are high, it is safe to say the evidence is in conflict. This definition can be served as a prerequisite for selecting appropriate combination rules.

Knowledge-based risk assessment under uncertainty in engineering projects

In this paper we describe how an evidential-reasoner can be used as a component of risk assessment of engineering projects using a direct way of reasoning. Guan & Bell (1991) introduced this method by using the mass functions to express rule strengths. Mass functions are also used to express data strengths. The data and rule strengths are combined to get a mass distribution for each rule; i.e., the first half of our reasoning process. Then we combine the prior mass and the evidence from the different rules; i.e., the second half of the reasoning process. Finally, belief intervals are calculated to help in identifying the risks. We apply our evidential-reasoner on an engineering project and the results demonstrate the feasibility and applicability of this system in this environment.

The Combination of Multiple Classifiers Using an Evidential Reasoning Approach

In many domains when we have several competing classifiers available we want to synthesize them or some of them to get a more accurate classifier by a combination function. In this paper we propose a ‘class-indifferent’ method for combining classifier decisions represented by evidential structures called triplet and quartet, using Dempster's rule of combination. This method is unique in that it distinguishes important elements from the trivial ones in representing classifier decisions, makes use of more information than others in calculating the support for class labels and provides a practical way to apply the theoretically appealing Dempster–Shafer theory of evidence to the problem of ensemble learning. We present a formalism for modelling classifier decisions as triplet mass functions and we establish a range of formulae for combining these mass functions in order to arrive at a consensus decision. In addition we carry out a comparative study with the alternatives of simplet and dichotomous structure and also compare two combination methods, Dempster's rule and majority voting, over the UCI benchmark data, to demonstrate the advantage our approach offers. (A continuation of the work in this area that was published in IEEE Trans on KDE, and conferences)

An extended framework for evidential reasoning systems.

Use of the Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory of evidence to deal with uncertainty in knowledge-based systems has been widely addressed. Several AI implementations have been undertaken based on the D-S theory of evidence or the extended theory. But the representation of uncertain relationships between evidence and hypothesis groups (heuristic knowledge) is still a major problem. This paper presents an approach to representing such knowledge, in which Yen’s probabilistic multi-set mappings have been extended to evidential mappings, and Shafer’s partition technique is used to get the mass function in a complex evidence space. Then, a new graphic method for describing the knowledge is introduced which is an extension of the graphic model by Lowrance et al. Finally, an extended framework for evidential reasoning systems is specified.

Body mass-abundance relationships are robust to cascading effects in marine food webs

Body mass has been shown to scale negatively with abundance in a wide range of habitats and ecosystems. It is believed that this relationship has important consequences for the distribution and maintenance of energy in natural communities. Some studies have shown that the relationship between body mass and abundance may be robust to major food web perturbations, fuelling the belief that natural processes may preserve the slope of this relationship and the associated cycling of energy and nutrients. Here, we use data from a long-term experimental food web manipulation to examine this issue in a semi-natural environment. Similar communities were developed in large experimental mesocosms over a six month period. Some of the mesocosms were then subjected to species removals, based on the mean strength of their trophic interactions in the communities. In treatments where the strongest interactors were removed, a community-level trophic cascade occurred. The biomass density of invertebrates increased dramatically in these communities, which led to a suppression of primary production. In spite of these widespread changes in ecosystem functioning, the slope of the relationship between body mass and abundance remained unchanged. This was the case whether average species body mass and abundance or individual organism size spectra were considered. An examination of changes in species composition before and after the experimental manipulations revealed an important mechanism for maintaining the body mass-abundance relationship. The manipulated communities all had a higher species turnover than the intact communities, with the highest turnover in communities that experienced cascading effects. As some species increased in body mass and abundance, new species filled the available size-abundance niches that were created. This maintained the overall body mass-abundance relationship and provided a stabilising structure to these experimental communities.

An Evidential Approach to Query Interface Matching on the Deep Web

Matching query interfaces is a crucial step in data integration across multiple Web databases. The problem is closely related to schema matching that typically exploits different features of schemas. Relying on a particular feature of schemas is not suffcient. We propose an evidential approach to combining multiple matchers using Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence. First, our approach views the match results of an individual matcher as a source of evidence that provides a level of confidence on the validity of each candidate attribute correspondence. Second, it combines multiple sources of evidence to get a combined mass function that represents the overall level of confidence, taking into account the match results of different matchers. Our combination mechanism does not require use of weighing parameters, hence no setting and tuning of them is needed. Third, it selects the top k attribute correspondences of each source attribute from the target schema based on the combined mass function. Finally it uses some heuristics to resolve any conflicts between the attribute correspondences of different source attributes. Our experimental results show that our approach is highly accurate and effective.

An extended framework for evidential reasoning systems

Based on the Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory of evidence and G. Yen's (1989), extension of the theory, the authors propose approaches to representing heuristic knowledge by evidential mapping and pooling the mass distribution in a complex frame by partitioning that frame using Shafter's partition technique. The authors have generalized Yen's model from Bayesian probability theory to the D-S theory of evidence. Based on such a generalized model, an extended framework for evidential reasoning systems is briefly specified in which a semi-graph method is used to describe the heuristic knowledge. The advantage of such a method is that it can avoid the complexity of graphs without losing the explicitness of graphs. The extended framework can be widely used to build expert systems

An Evidential Improvement for Gender Profiling.

CCTV systems are broadly deployed in the present world. To ensure
in-time reaction for intelligent surveillance, it is a fundamental task for real-world
applications to determine the gender of people of interest. However, normal video
algorithms for gender profiling (usually face profiling) have three drawbacks.
First, the profiling result is always uncertain. Second, for a time-lasting gender
profiling algorithm, the result is not stable. The degree of certainty usually varies, sometimes even to the extent that a male is classified as a female, and vice versa. Third, for a robust profiling result in cases were a person’s face is not visible, other features, such as body shape, are required. These algorithms may provide different recognition results - at the very least, they will provide different degrees of certainties. To overcome these problems, in this paper, we introduce an evidential approach that makes use of profiling results from multiple algorithms over a period of time. Experiments show that this approach does provide better results than single profiling results and classic fusion results.

Evidential Fusion for Gender Profiling

Gender profiling is a fundamental task that helps CCTV systems to
provide better service for intelligent surveillance. Since subjects being detected
by CCTVs are not always cooperative, a few profiling algorithms are proposed
to deal with situations when faces of subjects are not available, among which
the most common approach is to analyze subjects’ body shape information. In
addition, there are some drawbacks for normal profiling algorithms considered
in real applications. First, the profiling result is always uncertain. Second, for a
time-lasting gender profiling algorithm, the result is not stable. The degree of
certainty usually varies, sometimes even to the extent that a male is classified
as a female, and vice versa. These facets are studied in a recent paper [16] using
Dempster-Shafer theory. In particular, Denoeux’s cautious rule is applied for
fusion mass functions through time lines. However, this paper points out that if
severe mis-classification is happened at the beginning of the time line, the result
of applying Denoeux’s rule could be disastrous. To remedy this weakness,
in this paper, we propose two generalizations to the DS approach proposed in
[16] that incorporates time-window and time-attenuation, respectively, in applying
Denoeux’s rule along with time lines, for which the DS approach is a special
case. Experiments show that these two generalizations do provide better results
than their predecessor when mis-classifications happen.

Evidential event inference in transport video surveillance

This paper presents a new framework for multi-subject event inference in surveillance video, where measurements produced by low-level vision analytics usually are noisy, incomplete or incorrect. Our goal is to infer the composite events undertaken by each subject from noise observations. To achieve this, we consider the temporal characteristics of event relations and propose a method to correctly associate the detected events with individual subjects. The Dempster–Shafer (DS) theory of belief functions is used to infer events of interest from the results of our vision analytics and to measure conflicts occurring during the event association. Our system is evaluated against a number of videos that present passenger behaviours on a public transport platform namely buses at different levels of complexity. The experimental results demonstrate that by reasoning with spatio-temporal correlations, the proposed method achieves a satisfying performance when associating atomic events and recognising composite events involving multiple subjects in dynamic environments.

An evidential fusion approach for gender profiling

CCTV (Closed-Circuit TeleVision) systems are broadly deployed in the present world. To ensure in-time reaction for intelligent surveillance, it is a fundamental task for real-world applications to determine the gender of people of interest. However, normal video algorithms for gender profiling (usually face profiling) have three drawbacks. First, the profiling result is always uncertain. Second, the profiling result is not stable. The degree of certainty usually varies over time, sometimes even to the extent that a male is classified as a female, and vice versa. Third, for a robust profiling result in cases that a person’s face is not visible, other features, such as body shape, are required. These algorithms may provide different recognition results - at the very least, they will provide different degrees of certainties. To overcome these problems, in this paper, we introduce an Dempster-Shafer (DS) evidential approach that makes use of profiling results from multiple algorithms over a period of time, in particular, Denoeux’s cautious rule is applied for fusing mass functions through time lines. Experiments show that this approach does provide better results than single profiling results and classic fusion results. Furthermore, it is found that if severe mis-classification has occurred at the beginning of the time line, the combination can yield undesirable results. To remedy this weakness, we further propose three extensions to the evidential approach proposed above incorporating notions of time-window, time-attenuation, and time-discounting, respectively. These extensions also applies Denoeux’s rule along with time lines and take the DS approach as a special case. Experiments show that these three extensions do provide better results than their predecessor when mis-classifications occur.