L’illusion des signaux pénaux : l’effet tendancieux de l’impunité différentielle

Réalisé sous la co-direction de Pierre Tremblay

Systematics, Fishery, Resource Characteristics and Bionomics of Deep Sea Prawns Off Kerala

School Of Industrial Fisheries, Cochin University of Science and Technology

Estimating crowd density with Minkowski fractal dimension

The estimation of the number of people in an area under surveillance is very important for the problem of crowd monitoring. When an area reaches an occupation level greater than the projected one, people's safety can be in danger. This paper describes a new technique for crowd density estimation based on Minkowski fractal dimension. Fractal dimension has been widely used to characterize data texture in a large number of physical and biological sciences. The results of our experiments show that fractal dimension can also be used to characterize levels of people congestion in images of crowds. The proposed technique is compared with a statistical and a spectral technique, in a test study of nearly 300 images of a specific area of the Liverpool Street Railway Station, London, UK. Results obtained in this test study are presented.

Distribuição e tamanho populacional do papagaio-de-cara-roxa Amazona brasiliensis no estado de São Paulo

The Red-tailed Amazon Amazona brasiliensis is one of most threatened psitacid in the world. In the state of São Paulo, SE Brazil, it is restricted to a narrow coastal zone. The total population of A. brasiliensis has been estimated to be around 4,000 birds, but no detailed information is known for São Paulo. We studied the population status and mapped the distribution of A. brasiliensis in the state of São Paulo. Simultaneous censuses were carried out in three main islands (Cananéia, Ilha do Cardoso and Ilha Comprida) with A. brasiliensis populations in 2003 and 2004. We searched the parrots in an area of 1413.28 km2 and visited 69 sites. Amazona brasiliensis were recorded in 55 localities and 12 sleeping roosts. Our census estimated a population of at least 1,221 parrots in the stronghold of their distribution in the state of São Paulo. The highest number of parrots were recorded outside the main protected areas in the region (64% of the population), which may threaten the future of this population. Urban growing is the main threat for the population of São Paulo, and the creation of protected areas in Cananéia and Comprida island is critical for the future of the A. brasiliensis in the area.

Distribuição, tamanho populacional, hábitat e conservação do bicudinho-do-brejo Stymphalornis acutirostris Bornschein, Reinert e Teixeira, 1995 (Thamnophilidae)

The Marsh Antwren (Stymphalornis acutirostris) is restricted to the lowlands between Antonina Bay, in the coastal plain of the state of Paraná, and Itapocu river, in the northern coastal plain of the state of Santa Catarina (from 0 to c. 5 m a.s.l.). It doesn't occur continuously in this region, being found in eight populations that span over an total area of about 6,060 ha (= area of occupancy; 4,856.67 in Paraná and c. 1,200 in Santa Catarina). Nine habitat types used by the Marsh Antwren were defined, based on vegetation physiognomy, localization, dominancy of botanical species, dominant life-form and history of the region. Five of these are herbaceous (marshes), while four have an upper arboreal stratum and an herbaceous lower stratum with marsh plants. According to the classification criteria of the Brazilian vegetation proposed by the Radambrasil Project, they were classified as Pioneering Formation of Fluvial Influence, Pioneering Formation of Fluvial-marine Influence, and/or Pioneering Formation of Lacustrine Influence. They occur as patches or narrow strips ranging from 0.001 to 203.0 ha in the state of Paraná. They are found mainly in the interior of bays, in the lower courses of rivers that drain into bays, in alluvial plains, and between sand dunes in the coastal plain. Characteristic herbaceous species are cattail (Typha domingensis), bulrush (Scirpus californicus), Crinum salsum, Panicum sp. cf. P. mertensii, saw grass (Cladium mariscus) and Fuirena spp. Hibiscus pernambucensis is the characteristic bush species, and Calophyllum brasiliense, Tabebuia cassinoides, Annona glabra and Laguncularia racemosa are the characteristic arboreal species. The Marsh Antwren lives in herbaceous vegetation, but also uses bushes and branches of small tress. It has low flight capacity and a single flight of more than 25 m was never recorded. Territories of 0.25 ha were estimated in one kind of habitat (tidal marsh) (= 8 individuals per hectare) and of 3.2 ha in another one (saw grass marsh) (= 0.62 individual per hectare). The global population estimate is of about 17,700 mature individuals (13,700 in Paraná and 4,000 in Santa Catarina). The species is really under threat of extinction, mainly because of it's restricted geographical distribution and habitat loss by human activities and biological contamination caused by invasion of exotic grasses (Urochloa arrecta and Brachiaria mutica).

Estimation of statistical cure from cancer using population-based data

Dissertação de mestrado em Estatística

Restriction site-associated DNA sequencing, genotyping error estimation and de novo assembly optimization for population genetic inference.

Restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RADseq) provides researchers with the ability to record genetic polymorphism across thousands of loci for nonmodel organisms, potentially revolutionizing the field of molecular ecology. However, as with other genotyping methods, RADseq is prone to a number of sources of error that may have consequential effects for population genetic inferences, and these have received only limited attention in terms of the estimation and reporting of genotyping error rates. Here we use individual sample replicates, under the expectation of identical genotypes, to quantify genotyping error in the absence of a reference genome. We then use sample replicates to (i) optimize de novo assembly parameters within the program Stacks, by minimizing error and maximizing the retrieval of informative loci; and (ii) quantify error rates for loci, alleles and single-nucleotide polymorphisms. As an empirical example, we use a double-digest RAD data set of a nonmodel plant species, Berberis alpina, collected from high-altitude mountains in Mexico.

Molecular estimation of dispersal for ecology and population genetics

The dispersal process, by which individuals or other dispersing agents such as gametes or seeds move from birthplace to a new settlement locality, has important consequences for the dynamics of genes, individuals, and species. Many of the questions addressed by ecology and evolutionary biology require a good understanding of species' dispersal patterns. Much effort has thus been devoted to overcoming the difficulties associated with dispersal measurement. In this context, genetic tools have long been the focus of intensive research, providing a great variety of potential solutions to measuring dispersal. This methodological diversity is reviewed here to help (molecular) ecologists find their way toward dispersal inference and interpretation and to stimulate further developments.

Cardiovascular risk estimation and eligibility for statin therapy using different scoring systems in Europe: a population-based study in Switzerland

BACKGROUND: Recommendations for statin use for primary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) are based on estimation of the 10- year CHD risk. We compared the 10-year CHD risk assessments and eligibility percentages for statin therapy using three scoring algorithms currently used in Europe. METHODS: We studied 5683 women and men, aged 35-75, without overt cardiovascular disease (CVD), in a population-based study in Switzerland. We compared the 10-year CHD risk using three scoring schemes, i.e., the Framingham risk score (FRS) from the U.S. National Cholesterol Education Program's Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III), the PROCAM scoring scheme from the International Atherosclerosis Society (IAS), and the European risk SCORE for low-risk countries, without and with extrapolation to 60 years as recommended by the European Society of Cardiology guidelines (ESC). With FRS and PROCAM, high-risk was defined as a 10- year risk of fatal or non-fatal CHD>20% and a 10-year risk of fatal CVD≥5% with SCORE. We compared the proportions of high-risk participants and eligibility for statin use according to these three schemes. For each guideline, we estimated the impact of increased statin use from current partial compliance to full compliance on potential CHD deaths averted over 10 years, using a success proportion of 27% for statins. RESULTS: Participants classified at high-risk (both genders) were 5.8% according to FRS and 3.0% to the PROCAM, whereas the European risk SCORE classified 12.5% at high-risk (15.4% with extrapolation to 60 years). For the primary prevention of CHD, 18.5% of participants were eligible for statin therapy using ATP III, 16.6% using IAS, and 10.3% using ESC (13.0% with extrapolation) because ESC guidelines recommend statin therapy only in high-risk subjects. In comparison with IAS, agreement to identify eligible adults for statins was good with ATP III, but moderate with ESC. Using a population perspective, a full compliance with ATP III guidelines would reduce up to 17.9% of the 24′ 310 CHD deaths expected over 10 years in Switzerland, 17.3% with IAS and 10.8% with ESC (11.5% with extrapolation). CONCLUSIONS: Full compliance with guidelines for statin therapy would result in substantial health benefits, but proportions of high-risk adults and eligible adults for statin use varied substantially depending on the scoring systems and corresponding guidelines used for estimating CHD risk in Europe.

Restriction site-associated DNA sequencing, genotyping error estimation and de novo assembly optimization for population genetic inference.

Restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RADseq) provides researchers with the ability to record genetic polymorphism across thousands of loci for nonmodel organisms, potentially revolutionizing the field of molecular ecology. However, as with other genotyping methods, RADseq is prone to a number of sources of error that may have consequential effects for population genetic inferences, and these have received only limited attention in terms of the estimation and reporting of genotyping error rates. Here we use individual sample replicates, under the expectation of identical genotypes, to quantify genotyping error in the absence of a reference genome. We then use sample replicates to (i) optimize de novo assembly parameters within the program Stacks, by minimizing error and maximizing the retrieval of informative loci; and (ii) quantify error rates for loci, alleles and single-nucleotide polymorphisms. As an empirical example, we use a double-digest RAD data set of a nonmodel plant species, Berberis alpina, collected from high-altitude mountains in Mexico.

Concentrations of resveratrol and derivatives in foods and estimation of dietary intake in a Spanish population: European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Spain cohort

Resveratrol has been shown to have beneficial effects on diseases related to oxidant and/or inflammatory processes and extends the lifespan of simple organisms including rodents. The objective of the present study was to estimate the dietary intake of resveratrol and piceid (R&P) present in foods, and to identify the principal dietary sources of these compounds in the Spanish adult population. For this purpose, a food composition database (FCDB) of R&P in Spanish foods was compiled. The study included 40 685 subjects aged 35–64 years from northern and southern regions of Spain who were included in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Spain cohort. Usual food intake was assessed by personal interviews using a computerised version of a validated diet history method. An FCDB with 160 items was compiled. The estimated median and mean of R&P intake were 100 and 933 μg/d respectively. Approximately, 32 % of the population did not consume R&P. The most abundant of the four stilbenes studied was trans-piceid (53·6 %), followed by trans-resveratrol (20·9 %), cis-piceid (19·3 %) and cis-resveratrol (6·2 %). The most important source of R&P was wines (98·4 %) and grape and grape juices (1·6 %), whereas peanuts, pistachios and berries contributed to less than 0·01 %. For this reason the pattern of intake of R&P was similar to the wine pattern. This is the first time that R&P intake has been estimated in a Mediterranean country.

Estimation of the real population and its impact on the utilisation of healthcare services in Mediterranean resort regions: an ecological study.

BACKGROUND The demographic structure has a significant influence on the use of healthcare services, as does the size of the population denominators. Very few studies have been published on methods for estimating the real population such as tourist resorts. The lack of information about these problems means there is a corresponding lack of information about the behaviour of populational denominators (the floating population or tourist load) and the effect of this on the use of healthcare services. The objectives of the study were: a) To determine the Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) ratio, per person per day, among populations of known size; b) to estimate, by means of this ratio, the real population in an area where tourist numbers are very significant; and c) to determine the impact on the utilisation of hospital emergency healthcare services of the registered population, in comparison to the non-resident population, in two areas where tourist numbers are very significant. METHODS An ecological study design was employed. We analysed the Healthcare Districts of the Costa del Sol and the island of Menorca. Both are Spanish territories in the Mediterranean region. RESULTS In the two areas analysed, the correlation coefficient between the MSW ratio and admissions to hospital emergency departments exceeded 0.9, with p < 0.001. On the basis of MSW generation ratios, obtained for a control zone and also measured in neighbouring countries, we estimated the real population. For the summer months, when tourist activity is greatest and demand for emergency healthcare at hospitals is highest, this value was found to be double that of the registered population. CONCLUSION The MSW indicator, which is both ecological and indirect, can be used to estimate the real population in areas where population levels vary significantly during the year. This parameter is of interest in planning and dimensioning the provision of healthcare services.

Estimation of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) population size and adult male survival in an urban area in Panama

Traditional mosquito control strategies rely heavily on the use of chemical insecticides. However, concerns about the efficiency of traditional control methods, environmental impact and emerging pesticide resistance have highlighted the necessity for developing innovative tools for mosquito control. Some novel strategies, including release of insects carrying a dominant lethal gene (RIDL®), rely on the sustained release of modified male mosquitoes and therefore benefit from a thorough understanding of the biology of the male of the species. In this report we present the results of a mark-release-recapture study aimed at: (i) establishing the survival in the field of laboratory-reared, wild-type male Aedes aegypti and (b) estimating the size of the local adult Ae. aegypti population. The study took place in Panama, a country where recent increases in the incidence and severity of dengue cases have prompted health authorities to evaluate alternative strategies for vector control. Results suggest a life expectancy of 2.3 days for released male mosquitoes (confidence interval: 1.78-2.86). Overall, the male mosquito population was estimated at 58 males/ha (range 12-81 males/ha), which can be extrapolated to an average of 0.64 pupae/person for the study area. The practical implications of these results are discussed.

A finite-population revenue management model and a risk-ratio procedure for the joint estimation of population size and parameters

Many dynamic revenue management models divide the sale period into a finite number of periods T and assume, invoking a fine-enough grid of time, that each period sees at most one booking request. These Poisson-type assumptions restrict the variability of the demand in the model, but researchers and practitioners were willing to overlook this for the benefit of tractability of the models. In this paper, we criticize this model from another angle. Estimating the discrete finite-period model poses problems of indeterminacy and non-robustness: Arbitrarily fixing T leads to arbitrary control values and on the other hand estimating T from data adds an additional layer of indeterminacy. To counter this, we first propose an alternate finite-population model that avoids this problem of fixing T and allows a wider range of demand distributions, while retaining the useful marginal-value properties of the finite-period model. The finite-population model still requires jointly estimating market size and the parameters of the customer purchase model without observing no-purchases. Estimation of market-size when no-purchases are unobservable has rarely been attempted in the marketing or revenue management literature. Indeed, we point out that it is akin to the classical statistical problem of estimating the parameters of a binomial distribution with unknown population size and success probability, and hence likely to be challenging. However, when the purchase probabilities are given by a functional form such as a multinomial-logit model, we propose an estimation heuristic that exploits the specification of the functional form, the variety of the offer sets in a typical RM setting, and qualitative knowledge of arrival rates. Finally we perform simulations to show that the estimator is very promising in obtaining unbiased estimates of population size and the model parameters.

Concentrations of resveratrol and derivatives in foods and estimation of dietary intake in a Spanish population: European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Spain cohort

Resveratrol has been shown to have beneficial effects on diseases related to oxidant and/or inflammatory processes and extends the lifespan of simple organisms including rodents. The objective of the present study was to estimate the dietary intake of resveratrol and piceid (R&P) present in foods, and to identify the principal dietary sources of these compounds in the Spanish adult population. For this purpose, a food composition database (FCDB) of R&P in Spanish foods was compiled. The study included 40 685 subjects aged 3564 years from northern and southern regions of Spain who were included in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Spain cohort. Usual food intake was assessed by personal interviews using a computerised version of a validated diet history method. An FCDB with 160 items was compiled. The estimated median and mean of R&P intake were 100 and 933 mg/d respectively. Approximately, 32% of the population did not consume RΠ The most abundant of the four stilbenes studied was trans-piceid (53·6 %), followed by trans-resveratrol (20·9 %), cis-piceid (19·3 %) and cis-resveratrol (6·2 %). The most important source of R&P was wines (98·4 %) and grape and grape juices (1·6 %), whereas peanuts, pistachios and berries contributed to less than 0·01 %. For this reason the pattern of intake of R&P was similar to the wine pattern. This is the first time that R&P intake has been estimated in a Mediterranean country.