Short-term autocorrelation in Australian equities

This paper examines the statistical and economic significance of short-term autocorrelation in Australian equities. We document large negative first-order autocorrelation in individual stock returns. Preliminary results suggest this autocorrelation is economically significant, as two simple trading strategies based on the autocorrelation structure appear to yield large risk-adjusted returns. Further analysis, however, shows that these results are driven by the inclusion of small-capitalisation and low-priced stocks which are vulnerable to a number of market-microstructure-related problems. After revising the dataset to mitigate these problems, little evidence of economic significance remains.

Equities and inequality

Most US credit card holders revolve high-interest debt, often combined with substantial (i) asset accumulation by retirement, and (ii) low-rate liquid assets. Hyperbolic discounting can resolve only the former puzzle (Laibson et al., 2003). Bertaut and Haliassos (2002) proposed an 'accountant-shopper'framework for the latter. The current paper builds, solves, and simulates a fully-specified accountant-shopper model, to show that this framework canactually generate both types of co-existence, as well as target credit card utilization rates consistent with Gross and Souleles (2002). The benchmark model is compared to setups without self-control problems, with alternative mechanisms, and with impatient but fully rational shoppers.

Continental shift? An analysis of convergence trends in European real estate equities

European economic and political integration have been recognised as having implications for patterns of performance in national real estate and capital markets and have generated a wide body of research and commentary. In 1999, progress towards monetary integration within the European Union culminated in the introduction of a common currency and monetary policy. This paper investigates the effects of this ‘event’ on the behaviour of stock returns in European real estate companies. A range of statistical tests is applied to the performance of European property companies to test for changes in segmentation, co-movement and causality. The results suggest that, relative to the wider equity markets, the dispersion of performance is higher, correlations are lower, a common contemporaneous factor has much lower explanatory power whilst lead-lag relationships are stronger. Consequently, the evidence of transmission of monetary integration to real estate securities is less noticeable than to general securities. Less and slower integration is attributed to the relatively small size of the real estate securities market and the local and national nature of the majority of the companies’ portfolios.

The effect of default risk on trading book capital requirements for public equities : an irc application for the Brazilian market

Esse é um dos primeiros trabalhos a endereçar o problema de avaliar o efeito do default para fins de alocação de capital no trading book em ações listadas. E, mais especificamente, para o mercado brasileiro. Esse problema surgiu em crises mais recentes e que acabaram fazendo com que os reguladores impusessem uma alocação de capital adicional para essas operações. Por essa razão o comitê de Basiléia introduziu uma nova métrica de risco, conhecida como Incremental Risk Charge. Essa medida de risco é basicamente um VaR de um ano com um intervalo de confiança de 99.9%. O IRC visa medir o efeito do default e das migrações de rating, para instrumentos do trading book. Nessa dissertação, o IRC está focado em ações e como consequência, não leva em consideração o efeito da mudança de rating. Além disso, o modelo utilizado para avaliar o risco de crédito para os emissores de ação foi o Moody’s KMV, que é baseado no modelo de Merton. O modelo foi utilizado para calcular a PD dos casos usados como exemplo nessa dissertação. Após calcular a PD, simulei os retornos por Monte Carlo após utilizar um PCA. Essa abordagem permitiu obter os retornos correlacionados para fazer a simulação de perdas do portfolio. Nesse caso, como estamos lidando com ações, o LGD foi mantido constante e o valor utilizado foi baseado nas especificações de basiléia. Os resultados obtidos para o IRC adaptado foram comparados com um VaR de 252 dias e com um intervalo de confiança de 99.9%. Isso permitiu concluir que o IRC é uma métrica de risco relevante e da mesma escala de uma VaR de 252 dias. Adicionalmente, o IRC adaptado foi capaz de antecipar os eventos de default. Todos os resultados foram baseados em portfolios compostos por ações do índice Bovespa.

Mere equities and third parties in leasehold law

Examines the concept of a "mere equity" in the context of the Land Registration Act 2002 s.116(b). Considers, by reference to case law, the nature and status of a mere equity and equities coming within the category of equitable rights binding third parties, including a landlord's right to rectification of a lease, the right to set aside a lease and a tenant's right to relief against forfeiture of a lease. Comments on the extent to which s.116(b) requires a mere equity to be more than just procedural and to be an equitable proprietary right capable of binding successors in title.

Style and performance of international socially responsible funds in Europe

This paper analyses the performance and investment styles of internationally oriented Socially Responsible Investment (SRI)funds, domiciled in eight European markets, in comparison with characteristics-matched conventional funds. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first multi-country study, focused on international SRI funds (investing in Global and in European equities), to combine the matched-pairs approach with the use of robust conditional multi-factor performance evaluation models, which allow for both time-varying alphas and betas and also control for home biases and spurious regression biases.In general, the results show that differences in the performance of international SRI funds and their conventional peers are not statistically significant. Regarding investment styles, SRI and conventional funds exhibit similar factor exposures in most cases. In addition,conventional benchmarks present a higher explaining power of SRI fund returns than SRI benchmarks. Our results also show significant differences in the investment styles of SRI funds according to whether they use “best-in-class” screening strategies or not. When compared to SRI funds that employ simple negative and/or positive screens, SRI “best-in-class” funds present significantly lower exposures to small caps and momentum strategies and significantly higher exposures to local stocks.

Selectivity and timing abilities of international socially responsible funds

This article analyses the selectivity and market timing abilities of international Socially Responsible Investment (SRI) funds, from eight European markets, in comparison to conventional funds with similar characteristics. The results show that differences in market timing abilities of international SRI funds and their conventional peers are not statistically significant. However, SRI funds investing in European equities are significantly worse stock pickers than conventional funds, whereas for funds investing globally, selectivity abilities are similar among both fund groups. Hence, our results suggest that a broader investment universe might increase SRI fund managers’ stock picking abilities and, consequently, improve SRI fund performance.

The determinants of international equity investment: Do they differ between institutional and noninstitutional investors?

In this paper we investigate whether the determinants of international equity investment differ between investors with different degrees of sophistication. For this purpose, we analyse and compare the determinants of international equity investment of institutional and noninstitutional investors from 20 OECD countries (US not included) in the period 2001-2009. The results show that there are significant differences in the determinants of international equity investment between institutional and noninstitutional investors. In particular, noninstitutional investors tend to exhibit a more pronounced preference for equities of geographical nearby, contiguous and more transparent countries than institutional investors. The preference for more developed equity markets and the contrarian behaviour are also significantly more pronounced for noninstitutional than for institutional investors. These results support the argument that international equity investment of less sophisticated investors is more affected by information costs and familiarity than that of more sophisticated investors. Moreover, business cycles exert an influence on international equity investment decisions of both institutional and noninstitutional investors.

The determinants of international equity and bond investment

The purpose of this research is fourfold. First, to investigate whether the determinants of international equity investment differ between investors with different degrees of information, experience and sophistication. For this purpose, the determinants of international equity investment of institutional and noninstitutional investors from 20 OECD countries, in the period 2001-2009, were analysed and compared. The results show that there are significant differences in the determinants of international equity investment between institutional and noninstitutional investors. Particularly, noninstitutional investors exhibit a more pronounced preference for equities of geographical nearby, contiguous and more transparent countries than institutional investors, suggesting that the effect of information costs and familiarity on international equity investment is stronger for less informed, experienced and sophisticated investors. Moreover, the preference for more developed equity markets and the contrarian behaviour are more severe for noninstitutional investors. Hence, the heterogeneity of institutional and noninstitutional investors in international equity investment is not negligible and therefore should be taken into account. Second, to investigate whether the determinants of international bond investment differ between investors with different degrees of information, experience and sophistication. For this purpose, the determinants of international bond investment of institutional and noninstitutional investors from 20 OECD countries, in the period 2001-2009, were analysed and compared. The results show that there are few significant differences in the determinants of international bond investment between institutional and noninstitutional investors. Particularly, the preference for bonds of more transparent countries and the return chasing behaviour are more pronounced for noninstitutional investors, whereas the preference for bonds with lower risk diversification potential is more pronounced for institutional investors. Hence, not only the results for international bond investment do not allow to support (or reject) the argument that information costs and familiarity are more important for less informed, experienced and sophisticated investors, but also they are contrary to the idea that financial variables, namely return and risk diversification, are more important for more informed, experienced and sophisticated investors. Third, to investigate whether the determinants of international equity investment differ from the determinants of international bond investment. For this purpose, the determinants of both international equity and bond investment of institutional and noninstitutional investors from 20 OECD countries, in the period 2001-2009, were analysed and compared. The results show that, although the effect of information costs on international equity investment tends to be stronger than on international bond investment, the differences between assets are not usually statistically significant, especially when the influence of financial variables is taken into account. Hence, it is not possible to conclude that international equity investment is much more information intensive than international bond investment, as suggested by Gehrig (1993) and Portes, Rey and Oh (2001), among others. Fourth, to investigate whether the flight to quality phenomenon is also observable in international investment and whether the flight to quality phenomenon is more pronounced for more sophisticated than for less sophisticated investors. For this purpose, a two-factor and three-factor ANOVA models, respectively, were applied to the international equity and bond investment of institutional and noninstitutional investors from 20 OECD countries in the period 2001-2009. The results suggest that the flight to quality phenomenon is also observable in international investment, as a change from business cycle of expansion to recession causes investors to significantly decrease the average weight invested in more risky assets (equities) and increase the average weight invested in less risky assets (bonds). The results also show that the variation on the average weight assigned to each type of asset, due to changes in business cycles, is significantly stronger for institutional investors than for noninstitutional investors, thereby suggesting that the flight to quality phenomenon is more pronounced for more sophisticated than for less sophisticated investors.