The stabilizing effects of the acquired immunity on the schistosomiasis transmission modeling - the sensitivity Analysis

A mathematical model is proposed to analyze the effects of acquired immunity on the transmission of schistosomiasis in the human host. From this model the prevalence curve dependent on four parameters can be obtained. These parameters were estimated fitting the data by the maximum likelihood method. The model showed a good retrieving capacity of real data from two endemic areas of schistosomiasis: Touros, Brazil (Schistosoma mansoni) and Misungwi, Tanzania (S. haematobium). Also, the average worm burden per person and the dispersion of parasite per person in the community can be obtained from the model. In this paper, the stabilizing effects of the acquired immunity assumption in the model are assessed in terms of the epidemiological variables as follows. Regarded to the prevalence curve, we calculate the confidence interval, and related to the average worm burden and the worm dispersion in the community, the sensitivity analysis (the range of the variation) of both variables with respect to their parameters is performed.

The Effect of Spatial Scale on Predicting Time Series: A Study on Epidemiological System Identification

A susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) is employed for simulating the temporal evolution of the registered cases of chickenpox in Arizona, USA, between 1994 and 2004. At each time step, every individual is in one of the states S, I, or R. The parameters of this model are the probabilities of each individual (each cell forming the PCA lattice ) passing from a state to another state. Here, the values of these probabilities are identified by using a genetic algorithm. If nonrealistic values are allowed to the parameters, the predictions present better agreement with the historical series than if they are forced to present realistic values. A discussion about how the size of the PCA lattice affects the quality of the model predictions is presented. Copyright (C) 2009 L. H. A. Monteiro et al.

Ethical considerations for drug abuse epidemiological research

The mortality and morbidity caused by alcohol, tobacco and illicit drug misuse represents a significant public health burden (Ezzati et al., 2002). A key part of the public health response is the collection of epidemiological and social science data to define at-risk populations to identify opportunities for intervention and to evaluate the effectiveness of policies in preventing or treating drug misuse and drug-related harm. The systematic use of epidemiological and social science research methods to study illicit drug use is barely 40 years old in the United States and United Kingdom, which have pioneered this approach. Because of the sensitive nature of epidemiological research on illicit drug use a unique set of ethical challenges need to be explicitly addressed by the field. Although ethics guidelines have been proposed (Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences, 1991), scholarship on the ethics of epidemiology is scant, and consensus on core values not yet achieved (Coughlin, 2000).

Selenium content of Australian foods: A review of literature values

The aim of this study was to review the published literature values for the selenium content of Australian foods. A secondary aim was to compare the results for Australian foods with food composition data from international sources to investigate the extent of geographical variation. Published food composition data sources for the selenium content in Australian foods were identified and assessed for data quality using established criteria. The selenium content is available for 148 individual food items. The highest values found are for fish (12.0-63.2 mug/100 g), meats (4.75-37.9 mug/100 g) and eggs (9.00-41.4 mug/100 g), followed by cereals (1.00-20.3 mug/100 g). Moderate levels are seen in dairy products (2.00-7.89 mug/100 g) while most fruits and vegetables have low levels (trace-3.27 mug/100 g). High selenium foods show the greatest level of geographical variation, with foods from the United States generally having higher selenium levels than Australian foods and foods from the United Kingdom and New Zealand having lower levels. This is the first attempt to review the available literature for selenium composition of Australian foods. These data serve as an interim measure for the assessment of selenium intake for use in epidemiological studies of diet-disease relationships. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

Effect of feeding frequency on the reproductive efficiency of two species of Triatoma with different epidemiological importance

Introduction In Triatominae, reproductive efficiency is an important factor influencing population dynamics, and a useful parameter in measuring a species' epidemiological significance as a vector of Trypanosoma cruzi (Chagas, 1909). The reproductive efficiency of triatomines is affected by food availability; hence, we measured and compared the effects of feeding frequency on the reproductive parameters of Triatoma patagonica (Del Ponte, 1929) and Triatoma infestans (Klug, 1934), and the effects of starvation on T. patagonica. Methods Couples from both species were fed weekly, or every 3 weeks; in addition, females in couples of T. patagonica were not fed. Each couple was observed weekly and reproductive efficiency was assessed on the following parameters: fecundity (eggs/female), fertility (eggs hatched/eggs laid), initiation and end of oviposition, initiation of mating, number of matings/week, and number of reproductive weeks. Relative meal size index (RMS), blood consumption index (CI), and E values (eggs/mg blood) were also calculated. Results Changes in feeding frequency affected the reproductive parameters of T. patagonica only, with a decrease in fecundity and number of reproductive weeks for those fed every 3 weeks, or not fed. The reproductive period, RMS index, and CI were lower for T. patagonica than T. infestans. However, despite the lower fecundity of T. patagonica, this species required less blood to produce eggs, with an E values of 2 compared to 2.94 for T. infestans. Conclusions Our results suggest that the differences in fecundity observed between species reflect the availability of food in their natural ecotopes.

Epidemiological traits of the malaria-like parasite Polychromophilus murinus in the Daubenton¿s bat Myotis daubentonii.

BackgroundThe great diversity of bat haemosporidians is being uncovered with the help of molecular tools. Yet most of these studies provide only snapshots in time of the parasites discovered. Polychromophilus murinus, a malaria-like blood parasite, specialised on temperate-zone bats is a species that is being `rediscovered¿. This study describes the infection dynamics over time and between host sex and age classes.MethodsFor three years we followed the members of three breeding colonies of Myotis daubentonii in Western Switzerland and screened them for the prevalence and parasitemia of P. murinus using both molecular tools and traditional microscopy. In order to identify more susceptible classes of hosts, we measured, sexed and aged all individuals. During one year, we additionally measured body temperature and haematocrit values.ResultsJuvenile bats demonstrated much higher parasitemia than any other age class sampled, suggesting that first exposure to the parasite is very early in life during which infections are also at their most intense. Moreover, in subadults there was a clear negative correlation between body condition and intensity of infection, whereas a weak positive correlation was observed in adults. Neither body temperature, nor haematocrit, two proxies used for pathology, could be linked to intensities of infection.ConclusionIf both weaker condition and younger age are associated with higher infection intensity, then the highest selection pressure exerted by P. murinus should be at the juvenile stage. Confusion over the identities and nomenclature of malarial-like parasites requires that molecular barcodes are coupled to accurate morphological descriptions.

Evaluation of a colorimetric Babesia bigemina-DNA probe within an epidemiological survey

An epidemiological survey was conducted in south east Mexico, in an effort to establish the serological reactivity and carrier status to Babesia bigemina of an indigenous cattle population. The prevalance was obtained through the Indirect Fluorescent Antibody Test (IFAT), using an in vitro culture-derived B. bigemina antigen. A specific, digoxigenin-coupled, ~6kb B. bigemina-DNA probe (BBDP), was used to indicate the presence of the parasite. Serum samples from 925 animals of all ages, were obtained within the three regions (I, II, III) of the state of Yucatan and tested by IFAT. In addition, whole blood samples draw from 136 of the same animals of region II were analyzed using the BBDP. Positive IFAT (IFAT+) reactions were observed in 531 sera for a 57% overall prevalence. Regional values were: I = 157 + (56%), II = 266 + (68%) and III = 108 + (42%). Only 32 (23%) of the blood samples tested with BBDP showed distinctive hybridization signal, in contrast with 100 (73%) IFAT + animals. The responses distribution for IFAT vs. BBDP was: +/+ 23, +/- 77, -/+ 9 and -/- 27 respectively. It was found that the analytical sinsitivity of BBDP appears to be low for its utilization is widespread epidemiological surveys. It was considered, however, that the colorimetric probe mifht to be useful to safely detect transmission prone carriers, since it is able to detect parasitemias as low as 0.001%.

A Rural Community in a Brazilian Western Amazonian Region: Some Demographic and Epidemiological Patterns

Some demographic and epidemiological patterns of the rural population of Monte Negro, locality situated in the State of Rondônia (Brazil), Western Amazonia, are described based on a sample of 924 randomly selected individuals, approximately 10% of the whole population. The main features of this sample are (1) the illiteracy rates in the parental generation were 23% for fathers and 20% for mothers. Among children, this figure dropped to 6%; (2) housing in Monte Negro is characterized by being constructed with wood (92%), and also a floor (75%). Nevertheless, only 32% of these houses had electric energy; (3) the mean ages for the parental generation were 41.9 for males and 36.3 for females. These values for the offspring generation were 12.2 and 10.5, respectively; (4) the sex-ratio of the offspring generation was 1.32;(5) the bioassay of kinship was estimated as .033 for this long range migrant population; (6) the prevalence of some macrophage dependent infectious disease was conspicuously high; (7) the reported number of malarial episodes among males and females was statistically different, suggesting that malaria may be, in part, a "professional" disease; (8) the prevalence of serum-positive reactions against B-hepatitis is distressing. It has a strong age dependence and reaches 74% among adult males. Conversely, signs of active infection (AgHbs) rises to 16% among children.

New anthropometry-based age- and sex-specific reference values for urinary 24-hour creatinine excretion based on the adult Swiss population (epublish)

BACKGROUND: Urinary creatinine excretion is used as a marker of completeness of timed urine collections, which are a keystone of several metabolic evaluations in clinical investigations and epidemiological surveys. METHODS: We used data from two independent Swiss cross-sectional population-based studies with standardised 24-hour urinary collection and measured anthropometric variables. Only data from adults of European descent, with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥60 ml/min/1.73 m2 and reported completeness of the urinary collection were retained. A linear regression model was developed to predict centiles of the 24-hour urinary creatinine excretion in 1,137 participants from the Swiss Survey on Salt and validated in 994 participants from the Swiss Kidney Project on Genes in Hypertension. RESULTS: The mean urinary creatinine excretion was 193 ± 41 μmol/kg/24 hours in men and 151 ± 38 μmol/kg/24 hours in women in the Swiss Survey on Salt. The values were inversely correlated with age and body mass index (BMI). CONCLUSIONS: We propose a validated prediction equation for 24-hour urinary creatinine excretion in the general European population, based on readily available variables such as age, sex and BMI, and a few derived normograms to ease its clinical application. This should help healthcare providers to interpret the completeness of a 24-hour urine collection in daily clinical practice and in epidemiological population studies.

An epidemiological study of dental agenesis in a primary health area in Spain: estimated prevalence and associated factors

Objectives: To evaluate the prevalence of dental agenesis and its possible association with other developmental dental anomalies and systemic entities. Setting and Sample Population: Descriptive transversal study, for which 1518 clinical records, of patients visited by the Odontological Service of the Primary Health Centre of Cassà de la Selva (Girona-Spain) between December 2002 and February 2006 were reviewed. The data were recorded in relation to the oral and dental anomalies and the associated systemic entities, between the ones referred as concomitant in literature. Results: Values of 9.48% (7.25% excluding the third molars) for dental agenesis and 0.39% for oligodontia were obtained. The presence of dental agenesis concomitant with some other forms of oral and dental anomalies was observed. Attention must be drawn to the fact that a greater number of concomitant systemic entities were observed in those patients that presented a severe phenotypical pattern of dental agenesis. Conclusions: The results of the present study do not differ from the ones reported in studies of similar characteristics among Occidental and Spanish populations. The relationship observed between certain systemic entities and developmental dental anomalies suggest a possible common genetic etiology

Two different epidemiological scenarios of border disease in the populations of Pyrenean chamois (Rupicapra p. pyrenaica) after the first disease outbreaks

Since 2001 several outbreaks of a new disease associated with Border disease virus (BDV) infection have caused important declines in Pyrenean chamois (Rupicapra pyrenaica) populations in the Pyrenees. The goal of this study was to analyze the post-outbreak BDV epidemiology in the first two areas affected by disease with the aim to establish if the infection has become endemic. We also investigated if BDV infected wild and domestic ruminants sharing habitat with chamois. Unexpectedly, we found different epidemiological scenarios in each population. Since the disease outbreaks, some chamois populations recuperated quickly, while others did not recover as expected. In chamois from the first areas, prevalence was high (73.47%) and constant throughout the whole study period and did not differ between chamois born before and after the BDV outbreak; in all, BDV was detected by RT-PCR in six chamois. In the other areas, prevalence was lower (52.79%) and decreased during the study period; as well, prevalence was significantly lower in chamois born after the disease outbreak. No BDV were detected in this population. A comparative virus neutralisation test performed with four BDV strains and one Bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) strain showed that all the chamois had BDV-specific antibodies. Pestivirus antibodies were detected in all the rest of analyzed species, with low prevalence values in wild ruminants and moderate values in domestic ruminants. No viruses were detected in these species. These results confirm the hypothesis that outbreaks of BDV infection only affect the Pyrenean chamois, although other wild ruminants can occasionally be infected. In conclusion, two different scenarios have appeared since the first border disease outbreaks in Pyrenean chamois: on the one hand frequent BDV circulation with possible negative impact on population dynamics in some areas and on the other, lack of virus circulation and quick recovery of the chamois population.

Epidemiological risk assessment using linked network and grid based modelling: Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora kernoviae in the UK

We developed a stochastic simulation model incorporating most processes likely to be important in the spread of Phytophthora ramorum and similar diseases across the British landscape (covering Rhododendron ponticum in woodland and nurseries, and Vaccinium myrtillus in heathland). The simulation allows for movements of diseased plants within a realistically modelled trade network and long-distance natural dispersal. A series of simulation experiments were run with the model, representing an experiment varying the epidemic pressure and linkage between natural vegetation and horticultural trade, with or without disease spread in commercial trade, and with or without inspections-with-eradication, to give a 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 factorial started at 10 arbitrary locations spread across England. Fifty replicate simulations were made at each set of parameter values. Individual epidemics varied dramatically in size due to stochastic effects throughout the model. Across a range of epidemic pressures, the size of the epidemic was 5-13 times larger when commercial movement of plants was included. A key unknown factor in the system is the area of susceptible habitat outside the nursery system. Inspections, with a probability of detection and efficiency of infected-plant removal of 80% and made at 90-day intervals, reduced the size of epidemics by about 60% across the three sectors with a density of 1% susceptible plants in broadleaf woodland and heathland. Reducing this density to 0.1% largely isolated the trade network, so that inspections reduced the final epidemic size by over 90%, and most epidemics ended without escape into nature. Even in this case, however, major wild epidemics developed in a few percent of cases. Provided the number of new introductions remains low, the current inspection policy will control most epidemics. However, as the rate of introduction increases, it can overwhelm any reasonable inspection regime, largely due to spread prior to detection. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Epidemiological aspects of astrovirus and coronavirus in poults in the South Eastern Region of Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Epidemiological features of esophageal cancer. Squamous cell carcinoma versus adenocarcinoma

PURPOSE: To analyze the epidemiological features of patients with esophageal cancer according to the histopathological types: squamous cell carcinoma or adenocarcinoma. METHODS: A total of 100 patients with esophageal cancer, being 50 squamous cell carcinomas and 50 adenocarcinomas were analyzed for demographics, nutritional factors, lifestyle habits, benign pathological conditions associated, like Barrett's esophagus and megaesophagus, tumor stage and survival rates. The nutritional factors evaluated included body mass index, percent weight loss, hemoglobin and albumin serum levels. RESULTS: Esophageal cancer occurred more often in men over 50 years-old in both histological groups. No significant differences on age and gender were found between the histological groups. Squamous cell carcinoma was significantly more frequent in blacks than adenocarcinoma. Alcohol consumption and smoking were significantly associated with squamous cell carcinoma. Higher values of body mass index were seen in patients with adenocarcinoma. Barrett's esophagus was found in nine patients (18%) with adenocarcinoma, and megaesophagus in two patients (4%) with squamous cell carcinoma. The majority of patients were on stages III and IV in both histological groups. The mean survival rates were 7.7 ± 9.5 months for patients with squamous cell carcinoma and 8.0 ± 10.9 months for patients with adenocarcinoma. No significant differences on tumor stage and survival rates were detected between the histological groups. CONCLUSION: Epidemiological features are distinct for the histopathological types of esophageal cancer. Squamous cell carcinoma is associated with black race, alcohol and smoking, while adenocarcinoma is related to higher body mass index, white race and Barrett's esophagus.

Epidemiological Models of Directly Transmitted Diseases: An Approach via Fuzzy Sets Theory

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)