890 resultados para endogenous risk perception


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The main focus of this thesis was to gain a better understanding about the dynamics of risk perception and its influence on people’s evacuation behavior. Another major focus was to improve our knowledge regarding geo-spatial and temporal variations of risk perception and hurricane evacuation behavior. A longitudinal dataset of more than eight hundred households were collected following two major hurricane events, Ivan and Katrina. The longitudinal survey data was geocoded and a geo-spatial database was integrated to it. The geospatial database was composed of distance, elevation and hazard parameters with respect to the respondent’s household location. A set of Bivariate Probit (BP) model suggests that geospatial variables have had significant influences in explaining hurricane risk perception and evacuation behavior during both hurricanes. The findings also indicated that people made their evacuation decision in coherence with their risk perception. In addition, people updated their hurricane evacuation decision in a subsequent similar event.

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Driver sleepiness is a major contributor to road crashes. The current study sought to examine the association between perceptions of effectiveness of six sleepiness countermeasures and their relationship with self-reports of continuing to drive while sleepy among 309 drivers after controlling for the influence of age, sex, motivation for driving sleepy, and risk perception of sleepy driving. The results demonstrate that the variables of age, sex, motivation, and risk perception were significantly associated with self-reports of continuing to drive while sleepy and only one countermeasure was associated with self-reports of continuing to drive while sleepy. Further, it was found that age differences in self-reports of continuing to drive while sleepy was mediated by participants’ motivation and risk perception. These findings highlight modifiable factors that could be focused on with interventions that seek to modify drivers’ attitudes and behaviours of driving while sleepy.

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Unmanned aircraft, or drones, are a rapidly emerging sector of the aviation industry. There has been limited substantive research, however, into the public perception and acceptance of drones. This paper presents the results from two surveys of the Australian public designed to investigate (a) whether the public perceive drones to be riskier than existing manned aviation, (b) whether the terminology used to describe the technology influences public perception, and (c) what the broader concerns are that may influence public acceptance of the technology. We find that the Australian public currently hold a relatively neutral attitude towards drones. Respondents did not consider the technology to be overly unsafe, risky, beneficial, or threatening. Drones are largely viewed as being of comparable risk to that of existing manned aviation. Further, terminology had a minimal effect on the perception of the risks or acceptability of the technology. The neutral response is likely due to a lack of knowledge about the technology, which was also identified as the most prevalent public concern as opposed to the risks associated with its use. Privacy, military use and misuse (e.g., terrorism) were also significant public concerns. The results suggest that society is yet to form an opinion of drones. As public knowledge increases, the current position is likely to change. Industry communication and media coverage will likely influence the ultimate position adopted by the public, which can be difficult to change once established.

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This report is one of a series of products resulting from a National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Urgent Research Grant – Pandemic Influenza [No 409973]. The research targeted two key aspects of planning and preparedness for a human influenza pandemic, namely:

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Objective The objective of this study was to evaluate weight-related risk perception in early pregnancy and to compare this perception between women commencing pregnancy healthy weight and overweight. Study design Pregnant women (n=664) aged 29±5 (mean±s.d.) years were recruited from a metropolitan teaching hospital in Australia. A self-administered questionnaire was completed at around 16 weeks of gestation. Height measured at baseline and self-reported pre-pregnancy weight were used to calculate body mass index. Cross-sectional analysis was conducted. Differences between groups were assessed using chi-squared tests for categorical variables and t-tests or Mann–Whitney U tests for continuous variables depending on distribution. Result Excess gestational weight gain (GWG) during pregnancy was more important in leading to health problems for women or their child compared with pre-pregnancy weight. Personal risk perception for complications was low for all women, although overweight women had slightly higher scores than healthy-weight women (2.4±1.0 vs 2.9±1.0; P<0.001). All women perceived their risk for complications to be below that of an average pregnant woman. Conclusion Women should be informed of the risk associated with their pre-pregnancy weight (in the case of maternal overweight) and excess GWG. If efforts to raise risk awareness are to result in preventative action, this information needs to be accompanied by advice and appropriate support on how to reduce risk.

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The aim of this thesis is to examine how risk tolerance and risk perception, two important but often misunderstood constructs, jointly influence client investment decisions in a financial advice context. By distinguishing the roles of these two risk constructs in client decision-making, in this thesis a new direction in studying financial/investment risks is provided while practice and regulation in the financial services industry is potentially informed. Based on the literature relating to risks and individual decision-making, a theoretical framework is developed and relevant hypotheses are tested in two studies with financial adviser clients in Australia. Results reveal that financial risk tolerance influences asset allocation both directly and indirectly through risk perception. The intervening role of risk perception suggests that risk tolerance affects how clients perceive the riskiness of an investment product which influences client decision-making.

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- Objective Driver sleepiness is a major crash risk factor, but may be under-recognized as a risky driving behavior. Sleepy driving is usually rated as less of a road safety issue than more well-known risky driving behaviors, such as drink driving and speeding. The objective of this study was to compare perception of crash risk of sleepy driving, drink driving, and speeding. - Methods In total, 300 Australian drivers completed a questionnaire that assessed crash risk perceptions for sleepy driving, drink driving, and speeding. Additionally, the participants perception of crash risk was assessed for five different contextual scenarios that included different levels of sleepiness (low, high), driving duration (short, long), and time of day/circadian influences (afternoon, night-time) of driving. - Results The analysis confirmed that sleepy driving was considered a risky driving behavior, but not as risky as high levels of speeding (p < .05). Yet, the risk of crashing at 4 am was considered as equally risky as low levels of speeding (10 km over the limit). The comparisons of the contextual scenarios revealed driving scenarios that would arguably be perceived as quite risky due to time of day/circadian influences were not reported as high risk. - Conclusions The results suggest a lack of awareness or appreciation of circadian rhythm functioning, particularly the descending phase of circadian rhythm that promotes increased sleepiness in the afternoon and during the early hours of the morning. Yet, the results suggested an appreciation of the danger associated with long distance driving and driver sleepiness. Further efforts are required to improve the community’s awareness of the impairing effects from sleepiness and in particular, knowledge regarding the human circadian rhythm and the increased sleep propensity during the circadian nadir.

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Hendra virus is a highly pathogenic novel paramyxovirus causing sporadic fatal infection in horses and humans in Australia. Species of fruit-bats (genus Pteropus), commonly known as flying-foxes, are the natural host of the virus. We undertook a survey of horse owners in the states of Queensland and New South Wales, Australia to assess the level of adoption of recommended risk management strategies and to identify impediments to adoption. Survey questionnaires were completed by 1431 respondents from the target states, and from a spectrum of industry sectors. Hendra virus knowledge varied with sector, but was generally limited, with only 13% of respondents rating their level of knowledge as high or very high. The majority of respondents (63%) had seen their state’s Hendra virus information for horse owners, and a similar proportion found the information useful. Fifty-six percent of respondents thought it moderately, very or extremely likely that a Hendra virus case could occur in their area, yet only 37% said they would consider Hendra virus if their horse was sick. Only 13% of respondents stabled their horses overnight, although another 24% said it would be easy or very easy to do so, but hadn’t done so. Only 13% and 15% of respondents respectively had horse feed bins and water points under solid cover. Responses varied significantly with state, likely reflecting different Hendra virus history. The survey identified inconsistent awareness and/or adoption of available knowledge, confusion in relation to Hendra virus risk perception, with both over-and under-estimation of true risk, and lag in the uptake of recommended risk minimisation strategies, even when these were readily implementable. However, we also identified frustration and potential alienation by horse owners who found the recommended strategies impractical, onerous and prohibitively expensive. The insights gained from this survey have broader application to other complex risk-management scenarios.

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The Republic of Ireland became the first European country to implement nationwide smoke-free workplace legislation. Aims: To determine prevalence of smoking among bar workers and estimate the impact of the smoke-free workplace legislation on their smoking behaviour to that of a comparable general population sample. To approximate the influence of tobacco control measures on risk perception of second-hand smoke (SHS) among the general population. To explore the de-normalisation of smoking behaviour and the potential increased stigmatisation of smokers and their smoking. Methods: Prevalence estimates and behavioural changes were examined among a random sample of bar workers before and 1 year after the smoke-free legislation; comparisons made with a general population sub-sample. Changes in risk knowledge related to SHS exposure were based on general population data. Qualitative interviews were conducted among a purposive sample of smokers and non-smokers four years after the implementation of the legislation. Results: Smoking prevalence was extremely high among bar workers. Smoking prevalence dropped in bar workers and significantly among the general population 1 year post ban while cigarette consumption dropped significantly among bar workers. Disparity in knowledge between smokers and non-smoker of risk associated with SHS exposure reduced. Lack of understanding of the risk of ear infections in children posed by SHS exposure was notable. Evidence for advanced de-normalisation of smoking behaviour and intensification of stigma because of the introduction of the legislation was dependent on many factors, quality of smoking facilities played a key role. Conclusions: Ireland’s smoke-free legislation was associated with a drop in prevalence and cigarette consumption. Disparity in knowledge between smokers and non-smokers of the risk posed by SHS exposure reduced however the risk of ear infections in children needs to be effectively disseminated. The proliferation of ‘good’ smoking areas may diminish the potential to reduce smoking behaviour and de-normalise smoking.

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The reactions to the 9/11 terror attacks were immense in the western population. In the current review, the impact of terror attacks is presented with surveys, clinical interviews, and scientific polls, which were identified in a comprehensive literature search. Results show that the fear of further terror attacks is comparatively overestimated in the population and is associated with numerous psychological consequences and reactions. The overestimation of the probability of further terror attacks is related among other reasons to its unique features and its strong representation in the media. Several independent studies proved that the number of stress symptoms and psychiatric diagnoses is associated with a high risk perception in relation to terror attacks. This was not only the case for victims of terror attacks, but also for people indirectly exposed to the terror attacks. In addition, there is evidence that the number of the stress symptoms correlate with the duration of TV consumption of new findings about terror attempts. Methodologically, there is a critical lack of more in-depth analyses to explain the development of risk perceptions and its influence on mental and physical health. Because of the international importance and cross-cultural differences, an international standardization of research is desirable. [In German] Die Reaktionen auf die Terrorattentate vom 9. September 2001 in New York waren in der westlichen Bevölkerung immens. In der vorliegenden Übersichtsarbeit werden die Auswirkungen von Terrorattentaten durch Einbeziehung bevölkerungsrepräsentativer Untersuchungen, Surveys, klinischer Interviews und Einstellungsbefragungen dargestellt, die über eine deskriptive Literaturrecherche ermittelt wurden. Als Ergebnis des Reviews zeigt sich, dass die Angst vor weiteren Terrorattentaten in der Bevölkerung vergleichsweise hoch und mit zahlreichen psychologischen Folgen und Reaktionen assoziiert ist. Die Einschätzung der Auftretenswahrscheinlichkeit eines Terrorattentats hängt unter anderem mit den besonderen Charakteristika und der hohen medialen Präsenz des Themas zusammen. Die Anzahl der Stresssymptome bis hin zu psychiatrischen Diagnosen erwies sich in mehreren unabhängigen Untersuchungen mit einer hohen Risikowahrnehmung assoziiert. Dies ließ sich nicht nur bei den Opfern von Terrorattentaten, sondern auch bei indirekt Betroffenen zeigen. Darüber hinaus gibt es mehrfache Belege dafür, dass die Anzahl der Stresssymptome mit der Dauer des TV-Konsums über Neuigkeiten zu Terrorattentaten zusammenhing. Als methodische Kritik ist an den gegenwärtigen Untersuchungsszenarien einzuwenden, dass es derzeit keine tiefer gehenden Analysen zur Entwicklung der Risikowahrnehmung und zu ihrem Einfluss auf die Gesundheit gibt. Aufgrund der internationalen Bedeutung des Themas und der interkulturellen Unterschiede im Umgang mit Krisensituationen ist eine internationale Standardisierung von Untersuchungszugängen wünschenswert.