Institutional specifics and unemployment insurance eligibility in Canada : how sensitive are employment duration effects?

The paper examines the influence of unemployment insurance on the duration of employment spells in Canada using the 1988–90 Labour Market Activity Survey. The primary focus of the paper is to evaluate whether estimated UI effects are sensitive to the degree to which institutional rules and regulations governing UI eligibility and entitlement are explicitly modelled. The key result of the paper is that it is indeed important to allow for institutional detail when estimating unemployment insurance effects. Estimates using simple proxies for eligibility indicate small, often insignificant UI effects. The size and significance of the effects rise as more realistic versions of the variables are adopted. The estimates using the eligibility variables incorporating the greatest level of institutional detail suggest that a jump in the hazard rate by a factor of 2.3 may not be an unreasonable estimate of the effect.

Do Changes in Regulation Affect Employment Duration in Temporary Work Agencies? CES Germany & Europe Working Papers, No. 07.1, 2007

Over the past three decades Germany has repeatedly deregulated the law on temporary agency work by stepwise increasing the maximum period for hiring-out employees and allowing temporary work agencies to conclude fixed-term contracts. These reforms should have had an effect on employment duration within temporary work agencies. Based on an informative administrative data set we use a mixed proportional hazard rate model to examine whether employment duration has changed in response to these reforms. We find that the repeated prolongation of the maximum period for hiring-out employees significantly increased average employment duration while the authorization of fixed-term contracts reduced employment tenure.

Sector-Specific Training and Mobility in Germany

This article studies mobility patterns of German workers in light of a model of sector-specific human capital. Furthermore, I employ and describe little-used data on continuous on-the-job training occurring after apprenticeships. Results are presented describing the incidence and duration of continuous training. Continuous training is quite common, despite the high incidence of apprenticeships which precedes this part of a worker's career. Most previous studies have only distinguished between firm-specific and general human capital, usually concluding that training was general. Inconsistent with those conclusions, I show that German men are more likely to find a job within the same sector if they have received continuous training in that sector. These results are similar to those obtained for young U.S. workers, and suggest that sector-specific capital is an important feature of very different labor markets. In addition, they suggest that the observed effect of training on mobility is sensible to the state of the business cycle, indicating a more complex interaction between supply and demand that most theoretical models allow for.

Sector-Specific on-the-Job Training: Evidence from U.S. Data.

Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY), we re-examine the effect of formal on-the-job training on mobility patterns of young American workers. By employing parametric duration models, we evaluate the economic impact of training on productive time with an employer. Confirming previous studies, we find a positive and statistically significant impact of formal on-the-job training on tenure with the employer providing the training. However, the expected net duration of the time spent in the training program is generally not significantly increased. We proceed to document and analyze intra-sectoral and cross-sectoral mobility patterns in order to infer whether training provides firm-specific, industry-specific, or general human capital. The econometric analysis rejects a sequential model of job separation in favor of a competing risks specification. We find significant evidence for the industry-specificity of training. The probability of sectoral mobility upon job separation decreases with training received in the current industry, whether with the last employer or previous employers, and employment attachment increases with on-the-job training. These results are robust to a number of variations on the base model.

Essays on Unemployment Insurance

Can the potential availability of unemployment insurance (UI) affect the behavior of employed workers and the duration of their employment spells? After discussing few straightforward reasons why UI may affect employment duration, I apply a regression kink design (RKD) to address this question using linked employer-employee data from the Brazilian labor market. Exploiting the UI schedule, I find that potential benefit level significantly affects the duration of employment spells. This effect is local to low skilled workers and, surprisingly, indicates that a 1\% increase in unemployment benefits increases job duration by around 0.3\%. Such result is driven by the fact that higher UI decreases the probability of job quits, which are not covered by UI in Brazil. These estimates are robust to permutation tests and a number of falsification tests. I develop a reduced-form welfare formula to assess the economic relevance of this result. Based on that, I show that the positive effect on employment duration implies in a higher optimal benefit level. Moreover, the formula shows that the elasticity of employment duration impacts welfare just with the same weight as the well-known elasticity of unemployment duration to benefit level.

Labour market turnovers among South African youths

We describe the labour market turnovers of young people using a household survey data collected from Cape Town industrial area. We measure the correlates of first unemployment duration out of school and find that matriculation and late cohort (leaving school after 2007) are related with reduced initial unemployment, yet matriculation impacts are reduced among late cohort relative to early cohort. Our estimation reveals that initial unemployment is not related with subsequent employment duration nor wage rates, but related with number of turnovers which suggests that a shorter spell is associated with more stable job tenure.

Unemployment Duration: Competing and Defective Risks

This paper examines the determinants of unemployment duration in a competing risks framework with two destination states: inactivity and employment. The innovation is the recognition of defective risks. A polynomial hazard function is used to differentiate between two possible sources of infinite durations. The first is produced by a random process of unlucky draws, the second by workers rejecting a destination state. The evidence favors the mover-stayer model over the search model. Refinement of the former approach, using a more flexible baseline hazard function, produces a robust and more convincing explanation for positive and zero transition rates out of unemployment.

How do different entitlements to unemployment benefits affect the transitions from unemployment into employment?

In Portugal duration of benefits is exclusively age determined while replacement rates are essentially uniform. We exploit differences in potential maximum duration of benefits for nearly matched pairs of individuals to determine the effects of benefit duration on job finding. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Re-employment hazard of displaced German workers: evidence from the GSOEP

This study investigates the re-employment hazard of displaced German workers using the first fourteen sweeps of the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) data. As well as parametric and non-parametric discrete-time specifications for the baseline hazard, the study employs alternative mixing distributions to account for unobserved heterogeneity. Findings of the study suggest negative duration dependence, even after accounting for unobserved heterogeneity. In terms of covariate effects, those at the lower end of the skills ladder, those who had been working in manufacturing and those with previous experience of non-employment are found to have lower hazard of exit via reemployment.

The Impact of income support programs on transitions to employment

The income support programs are created with the purpose of fighting both, the poverty trap and the inactivity trap. The balance between both is fragile and hard to find. Thus, the goal of this work is to contribute to solve this issue by finding how income support programs, particularly the Portuguese RSI, affect transitions to employment. This is made through duration analysis, namely using Cox and Competing Risks models. A particular feature is introduced in this work as it incorporates the possibility of Defective Risks. The estimated hazard elasticity with respect to the amount of RSI received for individuals who move to employment is -0,41. More than a half of RSI receivers stays for more than a year and the probability of never leaving to employment is 44%. The results appear to indicate that RSI has affected negatively transitions to employment.

Implication of Trade, Livelihood and Employment Exclusion among Workers in Plantation Sector in Kerala

The first part of the study has focused on the trends in area, production and productivity comparing the state’s performance with of national level performance. Also an attempt was made to understand the trends in commodity price over the years especially in the post liberalization period from the early 1990s. Plantation commodities occupy an important share in the country’s export basket and thereby earning foreign exchange to the national exchequer. Taking into consideration the competitive dimension of natural rubber, cardamom and pepper in the export market was analyzed to see penetration of these commodities in the world market.The second part of the study has tried to understand the plantation workers livelihood by understand the employment generation in the sector. Livelihood assets of plantation workers were analyzed to understand the nature of ownership of various assets. Understanding the poor quality and ownership of various livelihood assets and their relative deprivation the study also tried to understand the income-expenditure patterns and the nature of indebtedness among workers and the factors responsible for deprivation and thereby social exclusion.Area, Production and productivity trends of rubber, pepper and cardamom show a mixed picture. Area, Production trends are impacted greatly by the commodity price of the plantation crops.High correlation exists between commodity price and area and production trends of plantation crops in the state.In terms of Natural Rubber, Kerala experienced a steady growth over the years in terms of area production and productivity as the price of rubber has increasedIn terms of black pepper, the state witnessed a deceleration in growth.In the case of cardamom the area of cultivation declined whereas production increasedProductivity of natural rubber, pepper and cardamom has increased substantially over the yearsEmployment pattern in rubber and spices sub-sector has been analyzed by looking in to the commodity prices so as to see the changes in employment pattern over the years. The study has helped to understand that commodity price and employment generation in plantations are interconnected to such an extent that a fall in the commodity price have greater reverberations on the employment pattern in plantations.Livelihood analysis both in the small and large holdings show that workers belonging to rubber (large and small rubber) plantations have shown better possession of livelihood assets when compared to spices plantation workers as 16.2 percent of the spices sub-sector workers claimed about ownership of house which is considered to be an important and primary livelihood asset.In the case of natural assets like accessibility, availability and duration of water for drinking and other household purposes, the situation of workers in spices plantation still remain poor as around 80 percent of workers depending on public well public taps and canals as source of drinking water.Evaluating financial assets also give clear indication that the road to secure financial assets still remains a distant dream for the workers in plantation sectorEvaluating income and expenditure trends pinpoints to the fact that disparity in terms of income exist among the plantation workersWhile observing the employment though wage levels have improved because of improvement in commodity price of plantation crops, significant improvements are not visible in their livelihood and they remain excluded compared to other sections of the society.

The employment situation in Latin America and the Caribbean: Countercyclical policies for a sustained recovery in employment

Latin America and the Caribbean experienced an unexpectedly vigorous economic recovery in 2010 after the output contraction of 2009. This upturn was reflected in the region’s employment and unemployment rates, which resumed the positive trends that had been broken by the crisis, and formal wages rose slightly. The strength of the recovery and labour-market performance varied markedly across subregions and countries, however. The first part of this joint ECLAC/ILO publication on the employment situation in Latin America and the Caribbean looks at how labour markets have responded to the rapid economic upswing in 2010 and early 2011, highlighting both the significant advances achieved in the post-crisis period and the sharp differences evident across subregions and countries. As well as tapping into the improved external conditions which followed upon the Asianled global economic upturn, several Latin American countries were also able to contain the impacts of the crisis and underpin their own recovery with countercyclical policies, thanks to the leeway gained by their macroeconomic management during the run of growth from 2003 to 2008. These countries were in a position to implement expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, some of which channelled higher fiscal spending through labour-market policies or softened the impact of the crisis on employment and income, as discussed in previous ECLAC/ILO bulletins. Since the region is fairly new to the use of countercyclical policies, the second part of this document reviews the experiences arising from those policies and considers lessons for institutionalizing them. Economic growth in the Latin American and Caribbean region has historically been marked by the volatility of its economic cycles, with high-growth periods being succeeded by deep crises. Volatility has conspired against the use of production resources over extended periods and short growth horizons have impeded investment in capital and labour. In the recent international crisis, the deployment of countercyclical macroeconomic policy helped to reduce the depth and duration of the impact and to leverage a more rapid recovery. It is therefore worth looking at the fundamentals of a long-term countercyclical macroeconomic policy which would provide the tools needed to deal with future crises and pave the way for economic growth that may be sustained over time. A special factor during this crisis was that a greater effort was made to support employment and income. Several of the labour-market policy measures taken acted as vehicles for conveying increased fiscal spending to individuals, reflecting greater consideration for equality concerns. Indeed, these measures were aimed not only at stabilizing andstrengthening domestic demand per se, but also at preventing the crisis from hitting lowest-income households the hardest, as had occurred in previous episodes. And —again unlike the pattern seen in previous episodes— inflation actually fell during the crisis as the high food and fuel prices seen in the run-up to it eased as a result of both existing macroeconomic policies and global conditions. This averted the surge in inequality so often seen in previous crises. Two caveats must be added, however. First, not all the countries were in a position to deploy strong countercyclical policies. Many simply lacked the fiscal space to do so. Second, some countries took this sort of measure more as an ad hoc response to the crisis than as part of a clearly established countercyclical policy strategy. The challenge, then, is to institutionalize a countercyclical approach throughout the economic cycle. Taking up this challenge is part of making economic growth more sustainable. This year —2011— was ushered in by rapid economic growth and substantial improvements in labour indicators. With the region’s GDP projected to grow well over 4% this year, ECLAC and ILO estimate that the regional unemployment rate will fall substantially again, from 7.3% in 2010 to between 6.7% and 7.0% in 2011.