Performance of balanced two-stage empirical predictors of realized cluster latent values from finite populations: A simulation study

Predictors of random effects are usually based on the popular mixed effects (ME) model developed under the assumption that the sample is obtained from a conceptual infinite population; such predictors are employed even when the actual population is finite. Two alternatives that incorporate the finite nature of the population are obtained from the superpopulation model proposed by Scott and Smith (1969. Estimation in multi-stage surveys. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 64, 830-840) or from the finite population mixed model recently proposed by Stanek and Singer (2004. Predicting random effects from finite population clustered samples with response error. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 99, 1119-1130). Predictors derived under the latter model with the additional assumptions that all variance components are known and that within-cluster variances are equal have smaller mean squared error (MSE) than the competitors based on either the ME or Scott and Smith`s models. As population variances are rarely known, we propose method of moment estimators to obtain empirical predictors and conduct a simulation study to evaluate their performance. The results suggest that the finite population mixed model empirical predictor is more stable than its competitors since, in terms of MSE, it is either the best or the second best and when second best, its performance lies within acceptable limits. When both cluster and unit intra-class correlation coefficients are very high (e.g., 0.95 or more), the performance of the empirical predictors derived under the three models is similar. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Institutional pressures on financial services firms: the role of information systems in regulatory compliance

The financial crisis of 2008 led to new international regulatory controls for the governance, risk and compliance of financial services firms. Information systems play a critical role here as political, functional and social pressures may lead to the deinstitutionalization of existing structures, processes and practices. This research examines how an investment management system is introduced by a leading IT vendor across eight client sites in the post-crisis era. Using institutional theory, it examines changes in working practices occurring at the environmental and organizational levels and the ways in which technological interventions are used to apply disciplinary effects in order to prevent inappropriate behaviors. The results extend the constructs of deinstitutionalization and identify empirical predictors for the deinstitutionalization of compliance and trading practices within financial organizations.

The role of individualism and collectivism as predictors of attributions for unethical work behavior: An empirical examination across two culturally diverse groups

This dissertation addresses how the cultural dimensions of individualism and collectivism affect the attributions people make for unethical behavior at work. The moderating effect of ethnicity is also examined by considering two culturally diverse groups: Hispanics and Anglos. The sample for this study is a group of business graduate students from two universities in the Southeast. A 20-minute survey was distributed to master's degree students at their classroom and later on returned to the researcher. Individualism and collectivism were operationalized as by a set of attitude items, while unethical work behavior was introduced in the form of hypothetical descriptions or scenarios. Data analysis employed multiple group confirmatory factor analysis for both independent and dependent variables, and subsequently multiple group LISREL models, in order to test predictions. Results confirmed the expected link between cultural variables and attribution responses, although the role of independent variables shifted, due to the moderating effect of ethnicity, and to the nuances of each particular situation. ^

The role of individualism and collectivism as predictors of attributions for unethical work behavior : an empirical examination across two culturally diverse groups

This dissertation addresses how the cultural dimensions of individualism and collectivism affect the attributions people make for unethical behavior at work. The moderating effect of ethnicity is also examined by considering two culturally diverse groups: Hispanics and Anglos. The sample for this study is a group of business graduate students from two universities in the Southeast. A 20-minute survey was distributed to master's degree students at their classroom and later on returned to the researcher. Individualism and collectivism were operationalized as by a set of attitude items, while unethical work behavior was introduced in the form of hypothetical descriptions or scenarios. Data analysis employed multiple group confirmatory factor analysis for both independent and dependent variables, and subsequently multiple group LISREL models, in order to test predictions. Results confirmed the expected link between cultural variables and attribution responses, although the role of independent variables shifted, due to the moderating effect of ethnicity, and to the nuances of each particular situation.

Determining the psychosocial predictors of living, living-related, and posthumous organ donation

The worldwide organ shortage occurs despite people’s positive organ donation attitudes. The discrepancy between attitudes and behaviour is evident in Australia particularly, with widespread public support for organ donation but low donation and communication rates. This problem is compounded further by the paucity of theoretically based research to improve our understanding of people’s organ donation decisions. This program of research contributes to our knowledge of individual decision making processes for three aspects of organ donation: (1) posthumous (upon death) donation, (2) living donation (to a known and unknown recipient), and (3) providing consent for donation by communicating donation wishes on an organ donor consent register (registering) and discussing the donation decision with significant others (discussing). The research program used extended versions of the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) and the Prototype/Willingness Model (PWM), incorporating additional influences (moral norm, self-identity, organ recipient prototypes), to explicate the relationship between people’s positive attitudes and low rates of organ donation behaviours. Adopting the TPB and PWM (and their extensions) as a theoretical basis overcomes several key limitations of the extant organ donation literature including the often atheoretical nature of organ donation research, thefocus on individual difference factors to construct organ donor profiles and the omission of important psychosocial influences (e.g., control perceptions, moral values) that may impact on people’s decision-making in this context. In addition, the use of the TPB and PWM adds further to our understanding of the decision making process for communicating organ donation wishes. Specifically, the extent to which people’s registering and discussing decisions may be explained by a reasoned and/or a reactive decision making pathway is examined (Stage 3) with the novel application of the TPB augmented with the social reaction pathway in the PWM. This program of research was conducted in three discrete stages: a qualitative stage (Stage 1), a quantitative stage with extended models (Stage 2), and a quantitative stage with augmented models (Stage 3). The findings of the research program are reported in nine papers which are presented according to the three aspects of organ donation examined (posthumous donation, living donation, and providing consent for donation by registering or discussing the donation preference). Stage One of the research program comprised qualitative focus groups/interviews with university students and community members (N = 54) (Papers 1 and 2). Drawing broadly on the TPB framework (Paper 1), content analysed responses revealed people’s commonly held beliefs about the advantages and disadvantages (e.g., prolonging/saving life), important people or groups (e.g., family), and barriers and motivators (e.g., a family’s objection to donation), related to living and posthumous organ donation. Guided by a PWM perspective, Paper Two identified people’s commonly held perceptions of organ donors (e.g., altruistic and giving), non-donors (e.g., self-absorbed and unaware), and transplant recipients (e.g., unfortunate, and in some cases responsible/blameworthy for their predicament). Stage Two encompassed quantitative examinations of people’s decision makingfor living (Papers 3 and 4) and posthumous (Paper 5) organ donation, and for registering and discussing donation wishes (Papers 6 to 8) to test extensions to both the TPB and PWM. Comparisons of health students’ (N = 487) motivations and willingness for living related and anonymous donation (Paper 3) revealed that a person’s donor identity, attitude, past blood donation, and knowing a posthumous donor were four common determinants of willingness, with the results highlighting students’ identification as a living donor as an important motive. An extended PWM is presented in Papers Four and Five. University students’ (N = 284) willingness for living related and anonymous donation was tested in Paper Four with attitude, subjective norm, donor prototype similarity, and moral norm (but not donor prototype favourability) predicting students’ willingness to donate organs in both living situations. Students’ and community members’ (N = 471) posthumous organ donation willingness was assessed in Paper Five with attitude, subjective norm, past behaviour, moral norm, self-identity, and prior blood donation all significantly directly predicting posthumous donation willingness, with only an indirect role for organ donor prototype evaluations. The results of two studies examining people’s decisions to register and/or discuss their organ donation wishes are reported in Paper Six. People’s (N = 24) commonly held beliefs about communicating their organ donation wishes were explored initially in a TPB based qualitative elicitation study. The TPB belief determinants of intentions to register and discuss the donation preference were then assessed for people who had not previously communicated their donation wishes (N = 123). Behavioural and normative beliefs were important determinants of registering and discussing intentions; however, control beliefs influenced people’s registering intentions only. Paper Seven represented the first empirical test of the role of organ transplant recipient prototypes (i.e., perceptions of organ transplant recipients) in people’s (N = 465) decisions to register consent for organ donation. Two factors, Substance Use and Responsibility, were identified and Responsibility predicted people’s organ donor registration status. Results demonstrated that unregistered respondents were the most likely to evaluate transplant recipients negatively. Paper Eight established the role of organ donor prototype evaluations, within an extended TPB model, in predicting students’ and community members’ registering (n = 359) and discussing (n = 282) decisions. Results supported the utility of an extended TPB and suggested a role for donor prototype evaluations in predicting people’s discussing intentions only. Strong intentions to discuss donation wishes increased the likelihood that respondents reported discussing their decision 1-month later. Stage Three of the research program comprised an examination of augmented models (Paper 9). A test of the TPB augmented with elements from the social reaction pathway in the PWM, and extensions to these models was conducted to explore whether people’s registering (N = 339) and discussing (N = 315) decisions are explained via a reasoned (intention) and/or social reaction (willingness) pathway. Results suggested that people’s decisions to communicate their organ donation wishes may be better explained via the reasoned pathway, particularly for registering consent; however, discussing also involves reactive elements. Overall, the current research program represents an important step toward clarifying the relationship between people’s positive organ donation attitudes but low rates of organ donation and communication behaviours. Support has been demonstrated for the use of extensions to two complementary theories, the TPB and PWM, which can inform future research aiming to explicate further the organ donation attitude-behaviour relationship. The focus on a range of organ donation behaviours enables the identification of key targets for future interventions encouraging people’s posthumous and living donation decisions, and communication of their organ donation preference.

Continuum of police crime : an empirical study of court cases

The great majority of police officers are committed to honourable and competent public service and consistently demonstrate integrity and accountability in carrying out the often difficult, complex and sometimes dangerous, activities involved in policing by consent. However, in every police agency there exists an element of dishonesty, lack of professionalism and criminal behaviour. This article is based on archival research of criminal behaviour in the Norwegian police force. A total of 60 police employees were prosecuted in court because of misconduct and crime from 2005 to 2010. Court cases were coded as two potential predictors of court sentence in terms of imprisonment days, ie, type of deviance and level of deviance. Categories of police crime and levels were organised according to a conceptual framework developed for assessing and managing police deviance. Empirical findings support the hypothesis that as the seriousness of police crime increases in breadth and depth so also does the severity of the court sentence as measured by time in prison.

Towards a capabilities database to inform inclusive design : Experimental investigation of effective survey-based predictors of human-product interaction

A key issue in the field of inclusive design is the ability to provide designers with an understanding of people's range of capabilities. Since it is not feasible to assess product interactions with a large sample, this paper assesses a range of proxy measures of design-relevant capabilities. It describes a study that was conducted to identify which measures provide the best prediction of people's abilities to use a range of products. A detailed investigation with 100 respondents aged 50-80 years was undertaken to examine how they manage typical household products. Predictor variables included self-report and performance measures across a variety of capabilities (vision, hearing, dexterity and cognitive function), component activities used in product interactions (e.g. using a remote control, touch screen) and psychological characteristics (e.g. self-efficacy, confidence with using electronic devices). Results showed, as expected, a higher prevalence of visual, hearing, dexterity, cognitive and product interaction difficulties in the 65-80 age group. Regression analyses showed that, in addition to age, performance measures of vision (acuity, contrast sensitivity) and hearing (hearing threshold) and self-report and performance measures of component activities are strong predictors of successful product interactions. These findings will guide the choice of measures to be used in a subsequent national survey of design-relevant capabilities, which will lead to the creation of a capability database. This will be converted into a tool for designers to understand the implications of their design decisions, so that they can design products in a more inclusive way.

Wisdom and narcissism as predictors of transformational leadership

- Purpose Although leadership and organizational scholars have suggested that the virtue of wisdom may promote outstanding leadership behavior, this proposition has rarely been empirically tested. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationships between transformational leadership, narcissism, and five dimensions of wisdom as conceptualized by the well-established Berlin wisdom paradigm. General mental ability and emotional intelligence were considered relevant control variables. - Design/methodology/approach Interview, test, and questionnaire data were obtained from 77 employees of a high school and from two or three colleagues of each employee. Data were analyzed using hierarchical regression analyses. - Findings After controlling for general mental ability and emotional intelligence, narcissism and the wisdom dimension relativism of values and life priorities were negatively related to transformational leadership, and the wisdom dimension recognition and management of uncertainty was positively related to transformational leadership. The other three wisdom dimensions, rich factual knowledge about life, rich procedural knowledge about life, and lifespan contextualism, were not significantly related to transformational leadership. - Research limitations/implications Limitations to be addressed in future studies include the cross-sectional design and the relatively small and specialized sample. - Practical implications Tentative implications for leadership training and development are outlined. - Originality/value This multi-method and multi-source study represents the first empirical investigation that examines links between well-established wisdom and leadership constructs in the work context.

Consumer Expertise or Credit Risk? An empirical analysis of mortgage pricing

Loan mortgage interest rates are usually the result of a bank-customer negotiation process. Credit risk, consumer cross-buying potential, bundling, financial market competition and other features affecting the bargaining power of the parties could affect price. We argue that, since mortgage loan is a complex product, consumer expertise could be a relevant factor for mortgage pricing. Using data on mortgage loan prices for a sample of 1055 households for the year 2005 (Bank of Spain Survey of Household Finances, EFF-2005), and including credit risk, costs, potential capacity of the consumer to generate future business and bank competition variables, the regression results indicate that consumer expertise-related metrics are highly significant as predictors of mortgage loan prices. Other factors such as credit risk and consumer cross-buying potential do not have such a significant impact on mortgage prices. Our empirical results are affected by the credit conditions prior to the financial crisis and could shed some light on this issue.

Conscientiousness and laboriousness as academic achievement predictors in a Spanish students sample

To understand academic performance of students, the variable of conscientiousness from personality inventory Big Five, has been recognized as an important key. The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship established between the personality factor conscientiousness itself and two of its facets, laboriousness and planning, with academic performance, and observe if there are genre differences in consciousness personality factor. A total of 456 Spanish students of high school and college participated in the study. They were requested to answer a personality report and a self inform questionnaire. The results show that both conscientiousness as a personality dimension and the consideration of laboriousness facet are able to predict academic performance, especially with regard to student’s exam marks, classroom attendance and dedication to study. The genre variable pointed out that feminine genre is more conscious than male in that personality factor. From a practical perspective, these results indicate that the establishment of a routine of continuous work is suitable for improving student grades and their adaptation to the educational environment.

Predictors of attitudes toward inclusion of students with special educational needs in future education professionals

One of the main pillars in the development of inclusive schools is the initial teacher training. Before determining if it is necessary to make changes (and of what type) in training programs or curriculum guides related to the attention to diversity and inclusive education, the attitudes of future education professionals in this area should be analyzed. This includes the identification of the relevant predictors of inclusive attitudes. The research reported in this article pursued this objective, doing so with a quantitative survey methodology based on the use of cross-sectional structured data collection and statistical analyses related to the quality of the attitude questionnaire (factor analysis and Cronbach's alpha), descriptive statistics, correlations, hypothesis tests for difference of means, and regression analysis in order to predict attitudes towards inclusion in education. Firstly, the results show that the participants held very positive attitudes toward the inclusion of students with special educational needs. Particularly, older respondents, those with a longer training and, to a lesser extent, women and those who had been in touch with disabled people stood out within this attitude. Secondly, it is evidenced that self-transcendence values ​and, more weakly, contact, function as robust predictors of attitudes of future practitioners towards the inclusion of students with special needs. Some applications for the initial professionalization of educators are suggested in the discussion.

A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961–2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

Febrifugine derivative antimalarial activity: quantum mechanical predictors

O desenvolvimento de linhagens resistentes de Plasmodium falciparum tem encorajado a busca por novas drogas antimalariais. A febrifugina é uma substância natural com alta atividade contra o P. falciparum que apresenta propriedade emética e toxicidade para o fígado tal que não permitem o seu uso clínico. A busca por análogos que possam ter uma performance clínica melhor é um tema de pesquisa atual. Nosso objetivo é investigar a estrutura eletrônica teórica de uma família de derivados da febrifugina empregando cálculos semi-empíricos de orbitais moleculares, procurando por índices eletrônicos que possam ajudar a modelar novos derivados mais eficientes. Os resultados teóricos mostram que para as moléculas mais seletivas existe um agrupamento dos valores de determinados índices em intervalos bem definidos. O modelo proposto para se obter alta seletividade foi testado com sucesso.

Predictors of attempted suicide among Swiss patients with alcohol-use disorders

Objective: Suicide attempts are common in patients being treated for alcohol-use disorders (AUDs). However, clinical assessment of suicide risk is difficult. In this Swiss multisite study, we propose a decision tree to facilitate identification of profiles of AUD patients at high risk for suicidal behavior. Method: In this retrospective study, we used a sample of 700 patients (243 female), attending 1 of 12 treatment programs for AUDs in the German-speaking part of Switzerland. Sixty-nine patients who reported a suicide attempt in the 3 months before the index treatment were compared using risk factors with 631 patients without a suicide attempt. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses were used to identify patients at risk of having had a suicide attempt in the previous 3 months. Results: Consistent with previous empirical findings in AUD patients, a prior history of attempted suicide and severe symptoms of depression and aggression considerably increased the risk of a suicide attempt and, in combination, raised the likelihood of a prior suicide attempt to 52%. In addition, one third of AUD patients who had a history of suicide attempts and previous inpatient psychiatric treatment, or who were male and had previous inpatient psychiatric treatment, also reported a suicide attempt. Conclusions: The empirically supported decision tree helps to identify profiles of suicidal AUD patients in Switzerland and supplements clinicians' judgments in making triage decisions for suicide management.

Illusory predictors: Generalizability of findings in cocaine treatment retention research.

Treatment retention is of paramount importance in cocaine treatment research as treatment completion rates are often 50% or less. Failure to retain cocaine patients in treatment has both significant research and clinical implications. In this paper we qualitatively and quantitatively demonstrate the inconsistency found across analyses of retention predictors in order to highlight the problem. First, a qualitative review of the published literature was undertaken to identify the frequency of predictors studied and their relations to treatment retention. Second, an empirical demonstration of predictor stability was conducted by testing a common set of variables across three similar 12-week cocaine clinical trials conducted by the same investigators in the same research clinic within a five-year period. Results of the literature review indicated inconsistently selected variables of convenience, widely varying statistical procedures, and discrepant findings of significance. Further, quantitative analyses resulted in discrepancies in variables identified as significant predictors of retention among the three studies. Potential sources of heterogeneity affecting the consistency of findings across studies and recommendations to improve the validity and generalizability of predictor findings in future studies are proposed.