Cameron's hot air. Pollution, fraud and the politics of carbon emissions

It is widely recognised that exposure to air pollutants affect pulmonary and lung dysfunction as well as a range of neurological and vascular disorders. The rapid increase of worldwide carbon emissions continues to compromise environmental sustainability whilst contributing to premature death. Moreover, the harms caused by air pollution have a more pernicious reach, such as being the major source of climate change and ‘natural disasters’, which reportedly kills millions of people each year (World Health Organization, 2012). The opening quotations tell a story of the UK government's complacency towards the devastation of toxic and contaminating air emissions. The above headlines greeted the British public earlier this year after its government was taken to the Court of Appeal for an appalling air pollution record that continues to cause the premature deaths of 30,000 British people each year at a health cost estimated at £20 billion per annum. This combined with pending legal proceedings against the UK government for air pollution violations by the European Commission, point to a Cameron government that prioritises hot air and profit margins over human lives. The UK's legal air pollution regimes are an industry dominated process that relies on negotiation and partnership between regulators and polluters. The entire model seeks to assist business compliance rather than punish corporate offenders. There is no language of ‘crime’ in relation to UK air pollution violations but rather a discourse of ‘exceedence’ (Walters, 2010). It is a regulatory system not premised on the ‘polluter pay’ principle but instead the ‘polluter profit’ principle.

A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change

This study presents the first global-scale multi-sectoral regional assessment of the magnitude and uncertainty in the impacts of climate change avoided by emissions policies. The analysis suggests that the most stringent emissions policy considered here – which gives a 50% chance of remaining below a 2oC temperature rise target - reduces impacts by 20-65% by 2100 relative to a ‘business-as-usual’ pathway (A1B) which reaches 4oC, and can delay impacts by several decades. Effects vary between sector and region, and there are few noticeable effects of mitigation policy by 2030. The impacts avoided by 2100 are more strongly influenced by the date and level at which emissions peak than the rate of decline of emissions, with an earlier and lower emissions peak avoiding more impacts. The estimated proportion of impacts avoided at the global scale is relatively robust despite uncertainty in the spatial pattern of climate change, but the absolute amount of avoided impacts is considerably more variable and therefore uncertain.

Energy-output linkages in Australia: Implications for emissions reduction policies

The study investigates the long-run and dynamic relationships between energy consumption and output in Australia using a multivariate cointegration and causality framework. Using both Engle-Granger and Johansen cointegration approaches, the study finds that energy consumption and real Gross Domestic Product are cointegrated. The Granger causality tests suggest bidirectional Granger causality between energy consumption and real GDP, and Granger endogeineity in the system. Since the energy sector largely contributes to carbon emissions in Australia, we suggest that direct measures to reduce carbon by putting constraints on the energy consumption would pose significant economic costs for the Australian economy.

Regional management of automotive emissions : the effectiveness of alternative policies for Los Angeles.

Mode of access: Internet.

Increase in particle number emissions from motor vehicles due to interruption of steady traffic flow

We assess the increase in particle number emissions from motor vehicles driving at steady speed when forced to stop and accelerate from rest. Considering the example of a signalized pedestrian crossing on a two-way single-lane urban road, we use a complex line source method to calculate the total emissions produced by a specific number and mix of light petrol cars and diesel passenger buses and show that the total emissions during a red light is significantly higher than during the time when the light remains green. Replacing two cars with one bus increased the emissions by over an order of magnitude. Considering these large differences, we conclude that the importance attached to particle number emissions in traffic management policies be reassessed in the future.

Evaluation of the control of carbon emissions of construction facilities in Hong Kong

This paper investigates the policies and instruments adopted in Hong Kong to control the carbon emissions of construction facilities, including the whole building life cycle: production of material stage, construction stage, operation stage and demolition stage. This commences with a literature review comparing activities world-wide to those in Hong Kong to identify the main issues at stake, followed by a report on a series of local interviews to evaluate the present situation in Hong Kong, as well as future opportunities for local carbon mitigation. The interviewees included practitioners from engineering contracting firms, consulting firms, clients and energy provider, together with two university experts and a counsellor. A small case study is also provided of a building project in Hong Kong to illustrate some of the innovative design aspects being incorporated into buildings in Hong Kong as a result of the current emphasis on sustainability. The paper concludes with a summary of main findings and proposals for improvement in policy related to carbon mitigation and building sustainability in Hong Kong.

Sustainability in road transport : an integrated life cycle analysis for estimating emissions

Despite of a significant contribution of transport sector in the global economy and society, it is one of the largest sources of global energy consumption, green house gas emissions and environmental pollutions. A complete look onto the whole life cycle environmental inventory of this sector will be helpful to generate a holistic understanding of contributory factors causing emissions. Previous studies were mainly based on segmental views which mostly compare environmental impacts of different modes of transport, but very few consider impacts other than the operational phase. Ignoring the impacts of non-operational phases, e.g., manufacture, construction, maintenance, may not accurately reflect total contributions on emissions. Moreover an integrated study for all motorized modes of road transport is also needed to achieve a holistic estimation. The objective of this study is to develop a component based life cycle inventory model which considers impacts of both operational and non-operational phases of the whole life as well as different transport modes. In particular, the whole life cycle of road transport has been segmented into vehicle, infrastructure, fuel and operational components and inventories have been conducted on each component. The inventory model has been demonstrated using the road transport of Singapore. Results show that total life cycle green house gas emissions from the road transport sector of Singapore is 7.8 million tons per year, among which operational phase and non-operational phases contribute about 55% and about 45%, respectively. Total amount of criteria air pollutants are 46, 8.5, 33.6, 13.6 and 2.6 thousand tons per year for CO, SO2, NOx, VOC and PM10, respectively. From the findings, it can be deduced that stringent government policies on emission control measures have a significant impact on reducing environmental pollutions. In combating global warming and environmental pollutions the promotion of public transport over private modes is an effective sustainable policy.

Airport ground transportation policies and the future of rail connections at US airports

Airports are currently being pressured to operate in a more environmentally-sensitive manner; as a response, airports have integrated environmental policies into their operations. However, environmental concerns regarding automobile traffic and related emissions have yet to be addressed. While the automobile is the dominant air passenger ground transportation mode at US airports, services facilitating automobile usage including public parking and car rentals are a major airport revenue source. Less than 20 US hub airports have direct access to rail-based transportation modes. New rail transportation projects serving additional airports are either being consideration or under construction. Regardless of whether an airport has direct access to rail-based transportation modes, the air passenger ground transportation modal split at US airports remain low in comparison to those in Asia and Europe. The high cost of providing additional US airports with direct rail connections in an era of severe governmental budgetary cutbacks is making the “build it and they will come” mindset untenable. Governmental policies are but one factor determining whether programs increasing transit usage results in automobile traffic reductions and related emissions. This study reveals that a significant percentage of the busiest US airports do not have policies fostering increases in the air passenger ground transportation modal split. A case study of one US airport is presented that has successfully adopted a transit first policy to achieve a high air passenger ground transportation modal split and facilitate the availability of rail-based transportation services.

Design and flight testing of an integrated solar powered UAV and WSN for greenhouse gas monitoring emissions in agricultural farms

There is an increased interest in measuring the amount of greenhouse gases produced by farming practices . This paper describes an integrated solar powered Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAV) and Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) gas sensing system for greenhouse gas emissions in agricultural lands. The system uses a generic gas sensing system for CH4 and CO2 concentrations using metal oxide (MoX) and non-dispersive infrared sensors, and a new solar cell encapsulation method to power the unmanned aerial system (UAS)as well as a data management platform to store, analyze and share the information with operators and external users. The system was successfully field tested at ground and low altitudes, collecting, storing and transmitting data in real time to a central node for analysis and 3D mapping. The system can be used in a wide range of outdoor applications at a relatively low operational cost. In particular, agricultural environments are increasingly subject to emissions mitigation policies. Accurate measurements of CH4 and CO2 with its temporal and spatial variability can provide farm managers key information to plan agricultural practices. A video of the bench and flight test performed can be seen in the following link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bwas7stYIxQ

An economic approach towards estimating health impacts of major transport investments and transport policies: A case study of transport emission abatement policy

The PhD thesis developed an economic model as an integral part of the current Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework. Based on a Health Production Function approach, the model showed how to estimate economic benefits of positive health gains generated by transport investment programs and transport policies. Using Australian mortality and morbidity statistics and applying econometric analysis, the case study quantified health benefits induced by transport emission abatement policies in dollar terms for the Australian households. Finally, the thesis demonstrated transferability of the economic model through two example case studies, establishing a wider application capacity of the model.

Emissions from India's transport sector: Statewise synthesis

A decentralized emission inventories are prepared for road transport sector of India in order to design and implement suitable technologies and policies for appropriate mitigation measures. Globalization and liberalization policies of the government in 90's have increased the number of road vehicles nearly 92.6% from 1980-1981 to 2003-2004. These vehicles mainly consume non-renewable fossil fuels, and are a major contributor of green house gases, particularly CO2 emission. This paper focuses on the statewise road transport emissions (CO2, CH4, CO, N-x, N2O, SO2, PM and HC) using region specific mass emission factors for each type of vehicles. The country level emissions (CO2, CH4, CO, NOx, N2O, SO2 and NMVOC) are calculated for railways, shipping and airway, based on fuel types. In India, transport sector emits an estimated 258.10 Tg Of CO2, of which 94.5% was contributed by road transport (2003-2004). Among all the states and Union Territories, Maharashtra's contribution is the largest, 28.85 Tg (11.8%) Of CO2, followed by Tamil Nadu 26.41 Tg(10.8%), Gujarat 23.31 Tg(9.6%), Uttar Pradesh 17.42 Tg(7.1%), Rajasthan 15.17 Tg (6.22%) and, Karnataka 15.09 Tg (6.19%). These six states account for 51.8% of the CO2 emissions from road transport.

Analyzing changes in macro-level drivers of country-specific emissions : The role of consumption, technology and trade

Industrial ecology is an important field of sustainability science. It can be applied to study environmental problems in a policy relevant manner. Industrial ecology uses ecosystem analogy; it aims at closing the loop of materials and substances and at the same time reducing resource consumption and environmental emissions. Emissions from human activities are related to human interference in material cycles. Carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are essential elements for all living organisms, but in excess have negative environmental impacts, such as climate change (CO2, CH4 N2O), acidification (NOx) and eutrophication (N, P). Several indirect macro-level drivers affect emissions change. Population and affluence (GDP/capita) often act as upward drivers for emissions. Technology, as emissions per service used, and consumption, as economic intensity of use, may act as drivers resulting in a reduction in emissions. In addition, the development of country-specific emissions is affected by international trade. The aim of this study was to analyse changes in emissions as affected by macro-level drivers in different European case studies. ImPACT decomposition analysis (IPAT identity) was applied as a method in papers I III. The macro-level perspective was applied to evaluate CO2 emission reduction targets (paper II) and the sharing of greenhouse gas emission reduction targets (paper IV) in the European Union (EU27) up to the year 2020. Data for the study were mainly gathered from official statistics. In all cases, the results were discussed from an environmental policy perspective. The development of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions was analysed in the Finnish energy sector during a long time period, 1950 2003 (paper I). Finnish emissions of NOx began to decrease in the 1980s as the progress in technology in terms of NOx/energy curbed the impact of the growth in affluence and population. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions related to energy use during 1993 2004 (paper II) were analysed by country and region within the European Union. Considering energy-based CO2 emissions in the European Union, dematerialization and decarbonisation did occur, but not sufficiently to offset population growth and the rapidly increasing affluence during 1993 2004. The development of nitrogen and phosphorus load from aquaculture in relation to salmonid consumption in Finland during 1980 2007 was examined, including international trade in the analysis (paper III). A regional environmental issue, eutrophication of the Baltic Sea, and a marginal, yet locally important source of nutrients was used as a case. Nutrient emissions from Finnish aquaculture decreased from the 1990s onwards: although population, affluence and salmonid consumption steadily increased, aquaculture technology improved and the relative share of imported salmonids increased. According to the sustainability challenge in industrial ecology, the environmental impact of the growing population size and affluence should be compensated by improvements in technology (emissions/service used) and with dematerialisation. In the studied cases, the emission intensity of energy production could be lowered for NOx by cleaning the exhaust gases. Reorganization of the structure of energy production as well as technological innovations will be essential in lowering the emissions of both CO2 and NOx. Regarding the intensity of energy use, making the combustion of fuels more efficient and reducing energy use are essential. In reducing nutrient emissions from Finnish aquaculture to the Baltic Sea (paper III) through technology, limits of biological and physical properties of cultured fish, among others, will eventually be faced. Regarding consumption, salmonids are preferred to many other protein sources. Regarding trade, increasing the proportion of imports will outsource the impacts. Besides improving technology and dematerialization, other viewpoints may also be needed. Reducing the total amount of nutrients cycling in energy systems and eventually contributing to NOx emissions needs to be emphasized. Considering aquaculture emissions, nutrient cycles can be partly closed through using local fish as feed replacing imported feed. In particular, the reduction of CO2 emissions in the future is a very challenging task when considering the necessary rates of dematerialisation and decarbonisation (paper II). Climate change mitigation may have to focus on other greenhouse gases than CO2 and on the potential role of biomass as a carbon sink, among others. The global population is growing and scaling up the environmental impact. Population issues and growing affluence must be considered when discussing emission reductions. Climate policy has only very recently had an influence on emissions, and strong actions are now called for climate change mitigation. Environmental policies in general must cover all the regions related to production and impacts in order to avoid outsourcing of emissions and leakage effects. The macro-level drivers affecting changes in emissions can be identified with the ImPACT framework. Statistics for generally known macro-indicators are currently relatively well available for different countries, and the method is transparent. In the papers included in this study, a similar method was successfully applied in different types of case studies. Using transparent macro-level figures and a simple top-down approach are also appropriate in evaluating and setting international emission reduction targets, as demonstrated in papers II and IV. The projected rates of population and affluence growth are especially worth consideration in setting targets. However, sensitivities in calculations must be carefully acknowledged. In the basic form of the ImPACT model, the economic intensity of consumption and emission intensity of use are included. In seeking to examine consumption but also international trade in more detail, imports were included in paper III. This example demonstrates well how outsourcing of production influences domestic emissions. Country-specific production-based emissions have often been used in similar decomposition analyses. Nevertheless, trade-related issues must not be ignored.

Climate change and agriculture: theory and application of mitigation policies

Agriculture’s contribution to climate change is controversial as it is a significant source of greenhouse gases but also a sink of carbon. Hence its economic and technological potential to mitigate climate change have been argued to be noteworthy. However, social profitability of emission mitigation is a result from factors among emission reductions such as surface water quality impact or profit from production. Consequently, to value comprehensive results of agricultural climate emission mitigation practices, these co-effects to environment and economics should be taken into account. The objective of this thesis was to develop an integrated economic and ecological model to analyse the social welfare of crop cultivation in Finland on distinctive cultivation technologies, conventional tillage and conservation tillage (no-till). Further, we ask whether it would be privately or socially profitable to allocate some of barley cultivation for alternative land use, such as green set-aside or afforestation, when production costs, GHG’s and water quality impacts are taken into account. In the theoretical framework we depict the optimal input use and land allocation choices in terms of environmental impacts and profit from production and derive the optimal tax and payment policies for climate and water quality friendly land allocation. The empirical application of the model uses Finnish data about production cost and profit structure and environmental impacts. According to our results, given emission mitigation practices are not self-evidently beneficial for farmers or society. On the contrary, in some cases alternative land allocation could even reduce social welfare, profiting conventional crop cultivation. This is the case regarding mineral soils such as clay and silt soils. On organic agricultural soils, climate mitigation practices, in this case afforestation and green fallow give more promising results, decreasing climate emissions and nutrient runoff to water systems. No-till technology does not seem to profit climate mitigation although it does decrease other environmental impacts. Nevertheless, the data behind climate emission mitigation practices impact to production and climate is limited and partly contradictory. More specific experiment studies on interaction of emission mitigation practices and environment would be needed. Further study would be important. Particularly area specific production and environmental factors and also food security and safety and socio-economic impacts should be taken into account.

Renewable Energy and Climate Policies: Studies in the Forest and Energy Sector

‪This dissertation examines the impacts of energy and climate policies on the energy and forest sectors, focusing on the case of Finland. The thesis consists of an introduction article and four separate studies. The dissertation was motivated by the climate concern and the increasing demand of renewable energy. In particular, the renewable energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission reduction targets of the European Union were driving this work. In Finland, both forest and energy sectors are in key roles in achieving these targets. In fact, the separation between forest and energy sector is diminishing as the energy sector is utilizing increasing amounts of wood in energy production and as the forest sector is becoming more and more important energy producer.‬ ‪The objective of this dissertation is to find out and measure the impacts of climate and energy policies on the forest and energy sectors. In climate policy, the focus is on emissions trading, and in energy policy the dissertation focuses on the promotion of renewable forest-based energy use. The dissertation relies on empirical numerical models that are based on microeconomic theory. Numerical partial equilibrium mixed complementarity problem models were constructed to study the markets under scrutiny. The separate studies focus on co-firing of wood biomass and fossil fuels, liquid biofuel production in the pulp and paper industry, and the impacts of climate policy on the pulp and paper sector.‬ ‪The dissertation shows that the policies promoting wood-based energy may have have unexpected negative impacts. When feed-in tariff is imposed together with emissions trading, in some plants the production of renewable electricity might decrease as the emissions price increases. The dissertation also shows that in liquid biofuel production, investment subsidy may cause high direct policy costs and other negative impacts when compared to other policy instruments. The results of the dissertation also indicate that from the climate mitigation perspective, perfect competition is the favored wood market competition structure, at least if the emissions trading system is not global.‬ ‪In conclusion, this dissertation suggests that when promoting the use of wood biomass in energy production, the favored policy instruments are subsidies that promote directly the renewable energy production (i.e. production subsidy, renewables subsidy or feed-in premium). Also, the policy instrument should be designed to be dependent on the emissions price or on the substitute price. In addition, this dissertation shows that when planning policies to promote wood-based renewable energy, the goals of the policy scheme should be clear before decisions are made on the choice of the policy instruments.‬