A Case of Framing Effects: The Elicitation of Time Preferences.

We compare three methods for the elicitation of time preferences in an experimental setting: the Becker-DeGroot-Marschak procedure (BDM); the second price auction; and the multiple price list format. The first two methods have been used rarely to elicit time preferences. All methods used are perfectly equivalent from a decision theoretic point of view, and they should induce the same ‘truthful’ revelation i dominant strategies. In spite of this, we find that framing does matter: the money discount rates elicited with the multiple price list tend to be higher than those elicited with the other two methods. In addition, our results shed some light on attitudes towards time, and they permit a broad classification of subjects depending on how the size of the elicited values varies with the time horizon.

Contribution towards understanding the categorisation of landforms.

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Risk aversion and embedding bias

In Selten (1967) ?Strategy Method,? the second mover in the game submits a complete strategy. This basic idea has been exported to nonstrategic experiments, where a participant reports a complete list of contingent decisions, one for each situation or state in a given sequence, out of which one and only one state, randomly selected, will be implemented.In general, the method raises the following concern. If S0 and S1 are two differentsequences of states, and state s is in both S0 and S1, would the participant make the same decision in state s when confronted with S0 as when confronted with S1? If not, the experimental results are suspect of suffering from an ?embedding bias.?We check for embedding biases in elicitation methods of Charles Holt and Susan Laury(Laury and Holt, 2000, and Holt and Laury, 2002), and of the present authors (Bosch-Dom?nech and Silvestre, 1999, 2002, 2006a, b) by appropriately chosen replications of the original experiments. We find no evidence of embedding bias in our work. But in Holt and Laury?s method participants tend to switch earlier to the riskier option when later pairs of lotteries are eliminated from the sequence, suggesting the presence of some embedding bias.

Sobre la toma de decisiones economicas bajo incertidumbre

In this article we review the evolution of economic theory on decision making under uncertainty. After a brief reference to Expected Utility Theory, we refer to behavioural paradoxes, forcing the theorists to adopt less restrictive approaches, allowing us to explain a broader spectrum of phenomena. The complexity entailed in the new theories requires a multidimensional description of human attitudes towards risk. Nevertheless, measurement of this attitudes has not followed the desired path, with most elicitation methods remaining uni-dimensional.

Strategy Method (and payment cards)

Payment cards are a useful device to measure subjects’ preferences for a good and especially their willingness to pay for it. Together with some other similar elicitation methods, payment cards are especially appropriate for both hypothetical and incentive-compatible valuations of a good; a property which has prompted many researchers to use them in studies comparing stated and revealed valuations. The Strategy Method (hereafter SM) is a method based on a similar principle as that of payment cards, but is aimed at eliciting a subject’s full profile of responses to each of the strategies available to the rival(s).

Preference reversals for ambiguity aversion

This paper finds preference reversals in measurements of ambiguity aversion, even if psychological and informational circumstances are kept constant. The reversals are of a fundamentally different nature than the reversals found before because they cannot be explained by context-dependent weightings of attributes. We offer an explanation based on Sugden's random-reference theory, with different elicitation methods generating different random reference points. Then measurements of ambiguity aversion that use willingness to pay are confounded by loss aversion and hence overestimate ambiguity aversion.

The effects of video games on the receptive vocabulary proficiency of Swedish ESL students

Playing video games is an activity that takes up an increasing amount of children’s and adolescent’s spare time. While some previous studies have highlighted the negative aspects of video games, little research has been carried out on the linguistic learning opportunities that video games present. This study primarily investigates if Swedish second language learners of English can increase their vocabulary proficiency in English with the use of video games. In order to answer the research questions, two quantitative data elicitation methods are used: a questionnaire which aims to gather attitudinal and behavioral data, and a Vocabulary Levels Test which elicits data about the participants’ receptive vocabulary proficiency. The participants consist of 25 students at an upper secondary school in Stockholm. The results show that participants who played video games scored higher on the Vocabulary Levels Test, indicating a higher receptive vocabulary proficiency. Furthermore, the results show that participants who played moderate to frequent amounts of time performed better in the Vocabulary Levels Test than infrequent players. The results also show that video games emphasizing co-operation and communication are preferable to use for vocabulary acquisition. Additionally, the study discusses if video games could be integrated into the Swedish upper secondary school system.

Elicitation of Customer Requirements with Group Methods in Software Engineering

Vaatimusmäärittely on tärkeä vaihe ohjelmistotuotannossa, koska virheelliset ja puutteelliset asiakasvaatimukset vaikuttavat huomattavasti asiakkaan tyytymättömyyteen ohjelmistotuotteessa. Ohjelmistoinsinöörit käyttävät useita erilaisia menetelmiä ja tekniikoita asiakasvaatimusten kartoittamiseen. Erilaisia tekniikoita asiakasvaatimusten keräämiseen on olemassa valtava määrä.Diplomityön tavoitteena oli parantaa asiakasvaatimusten keräämisprosessia ohjelmistoprojekteissa. Asiakasvaatimusten kartoittamiseen käytettävien tekniikoiden arvioinnin perusteella kehitettiin parannettu asiakasvaatimusten keräämisprosessi. Kehitetyn prosessin testaamiseksi ja parantamiseksi järjestettiin ryhmätyöistuntoja liittyen todellisiin ohjelmistokehitysprojekteihin. Tuloksena vaatimusten kerääminen eri sidosryhmiltä nopeutui ja tehostui. Prosessi auttoi muodostamaan yleisen kuvan kehitettävästä ohjelmistosta, prosessin avulla löydettiin paljon ideoita ja prosessi tehosti ideoiden analysointia ja priorisointia. Prosessin suurin kehityskohde oli fasilitaattorin ja osallistujien valmistautumisessa ryhmätyöistuntoihin etukäteen.

Advancing towards inclusive social research: visual methods as opportunities for people with severe mental illness to participate in research

This article explores the possibilities offered by visual methods in the move towards inclusive research, reviewing some methodological implications of said research and reflecting on the potential of visual methods to meet these methodological requirements. A study into the impact of work on social inclusion and the social relationships of people suffering from severe mental illness (SMI) serves to illustrate the use of visual methods such as photo elicitation and graphic elicitation in the context of in-depth interviews with the aim of improving the aforementioned target group’s participation in research, participation understood as one of the basic elements of inclusive approaches. On the basis of this study, we reflect on the potential of visual methods to improve the inclusive approach to research and conclude that these methods are open and flexible in awarding participantsa voice, allowingpeople with SMI to express their needs, and therefore adding value to said approach

Elicitation of multivariate prior distributions: A nonparametric Bayesian approach

In the context of Bayesian statistical analysis, elicitation is the process of formulating a prior density f(.) about one or more uncertain quantities to represent a person's knowledge and beliefs. Several different methods of eliciting prior distributions for one unknown parameter have been proposed. However, there are relatively few methods for specifying a multivariate prior distribution and most are just applicable to specific classes of problems and/or based on restrictive conditions, such as independence of variables. Besides, many of these procedures require the elicitation of variances and correlations, and sometimes elicitation of hyperparameters which are difficult for experts to specify in practice. Garthwaite et al. (2005) discuss the different methods proposed in the literature and the difficulties of eliciting multivariate prior distributions. We describe a flexible method of eliciting multivariate prior distributions applicable to a wide class of practical problems. Our approach does not assume a parametric form for the unknown prior density f(.), instead we use nonparametric Bayesian inference, modelling f(.) by a Gaussian process prior distribution. The expert is then asked to specify certain summaries of his/her distribution, such as the mean, mode, marginal quantiles and a small number of joint probabilities. The analyst receives that information, treating it as a data set D with which to update his/her prior beliefs to obtain the posterior distribution for f(.). Theoretical properties of joint and marginal priors are derived and numerical illustrations to demonstrate our approach are given. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Human Endogenous Retrovirus K(HML-2) Gag and Env specific T-cell responses are not detected in HTLV-I-infected subjects using standard peptide screening methods

Abstract Background An estimated 10–20 million individuals are infected with the retrovirus human T-cell leukemia virus type 1 (HTLV-1). While the majority of these individuals remain asymptomatic, 0.3-4% develop a neurodegenerative inflammatory disease, termed HTLV-1-associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis (HAM/TSP). HAM/TSP results in the progressive demyelination of the central nervous system and is a differential diagnosis of multiple sclerosis (MS). The etiology of HAM/TSP is unclear, but evidence points to a role for CNS-inflitrating T-cells in pathogenesis. Recently, the HTLV-1-Tax protein has been shown to induce transcription of the human endogenous retrovirus (HERV) families W, H and K. Intriguingly, numerous studies have implicated these same HERV families in MS, though this association remains controversial. Results Here, we explore the hypothesis that HTLV-1-infection results in the induction of HERV antigen expression and the elicitation of HERV-specific T-cells responses which, in turn, may be reactive against neurons and other tissues. PBMC from 15 HTLV-1-infected subjects, 5 of whom presented with HAM/TSP, were comprehensively screened for T-cell responses to overlapping peptides spanning HERV-K(HML-2) Gag and Env. In addition, we screened for responses to peptides derived from diverse HERV families, selected based on predicted binding to predicted optimal epitopes. We observed a lack of responses to each of these peptide sets. Conclusions Thus, although the limited scope of our screening prevents us from conclusively disproving our hypothesis, the current study does not provide data supporting a role for HERV-specific T-cell responses in HTLV-1 associated immunopathology.

The application of methods of uncertain reasoning to the biological classification of river water quality

This thesis presents an investigation into the application of methods of uncertain reasoning to the biological classification of river water quality. Existing biological methods for reporting river water quality are critically evaluated, and the adoption of a discrete biological classification scheme advocated. Reasoning methods for managing uncertainty are explained, in which the Bayesian and Dempster-Shafer calculi are cited as primary numerical schemes. Elicitation of qualitative knowledge on benthic invertebrates is described. The specificity of benthic response to changes in water quality leads to the adoption of a sensor model of data interpretation, in which a reference set of taxa provide probabilistic support for the biological classes. The significance of sensor states, including that of absence, is shown. Novel techniques of directly eliciting the required uncertainty measures are presented. Bayesian and Dempster-Shafer calculi were used to combine the evidence provided by the sensors. The performance of these automatic classifiers was compared with the expert's own discrete classification of sampled sites. Variations of sensor data weighting, combination order and belief representation were examined for their effect on classification performance. The behaviour of the calculi under evidential conflict and alternative combination rules was investigated. Small variations in evidential weight and the inclusion of evidence from sensors absent from a sample improved classification performance of Bayesian belief and support for singleton hypotheses. For simple support, inclusion of absent evidence decreased classification rate. The performance of Dempster-Shafer classification using consonant belief functions was comparable to Bayesian and singleton belief. Recommendations are made for further work in biological classification using uncertain reasoning methods, including the combination of multiple-expert opinion, the use of Bayesian networks, and the integration of classification software within a decision support system for water quality assessment.

Knowledge elicitation and knowledge representation in a large domain with multiple experts

This paper describes the knowledge elicitation and knowledge representation aspects of a system being developed to help with the design and maintenance of relational data bases. The size algorithmic components. In addition, the domain contains multiple experts, but any given expert's knowledge of this large domain is only partial. The paper discusses the methods and techniques used for knowledge elicitation, which was based on a "broad and shallow" approach at first, moving to a "narrow and deep" one later, and describes the models used for knowledge representation, which were based on a layered "generic and variants" approach. © 1995.